QB Hits and the Breakout of Ziggy Ansah . . .

. . . and you never thought you'd be reading about Jimmy Clausen!
by Nick Webster

On Thanksgiving Day the country was delivered a treat, turkey and stuffing aside, we were all given the rare opportunity – outside of the state of Michigan – to witness the continued break-out of Lions DE Ziggy Ansah.  Ansah, a highly drafted project out of BYU, has been trending upward for much of the last few seasons –but few saw Thursday coming.  But Ansah (prior to Thursday) was still having a season a level above any of his previous performances, and you could see it coming, maybe it wasn’t the sacks, maybe it was the non-Sack hits. 

The NFL has been tracking QB Hits¹ by defenders for a number of years now, but the final counts presented in the box scores and elsewhere² included hits on QB Sacks.  As such, the QB Hit statistics essentially double counted QB Sacks, and the list so closely tracked the Sack list so as to not add value.  However, by removing QB Hits on QB Sacks we can get a sense of who is getting pressure and just not quite getting to the QB.  And in 2014, that was Ziggy Ansah.

Ziggy Ansah
Year	Age	G	GS	Sk	Rk	QB Hit	Rk	Tkl	Ast	FF	Stf	Rk
2013	24	14	12	8	35th	4	>50th	17	13	2	2	253rd
2014	25	16	16	7.5	31st	16	3rd	39	12	3	7.5	25th
2015	26	10	10	8	4th	15	2nd	27	5	4	3	85th
Career		41	39	23.5		35		83	30	9	12.5

Clearly, in this case, the QB Hits in 2014 portended sacks in 2015.  And another breakout pass rusher Carlos Dunlap, who was 3^rd in the league in QB Sacks heading into Week 12 of 2015 ranked 2^nd in the NFL in non-Sack QB Hits in 2014.

But what is the value of a QB hit in and of itself?  Absent a sack, the play goes on, but what do those plays look like?  Clearly – the numbers suggest – there is value in hitting the Quarterback.  So far in 2015 QB Hits have been registered on 9.9% of all non-sack drop-backs, providing for a meaningful sample of 1,152 passes where the QB was hit and the numbers are far worse on those drop-back than when a QB was relatively unmolested.

NFL Passing when Hit 2015 – to Week 11

Situation	Att	Comp	%Comp	Yds	Y / A	TD	%TD	Int	%Int	Pass Rate	AY / A3
League Tot	11,669	7,367	63.1%	80,107	6.9	535	4.6%	286	2.5%	88.4	6.7
When Hit	1,152	497	43.1%	6,786	5.9	51	4.4%	46	4.0%	60.7	5.0
Not Hit	10,517	6,870	65.3%	73,321	7.0	484	4.6%	240	2.3%	91.4	6.9
Difference			-22.2%		-1.1		-0.2%		1.7%	-30.7	-1.9

The passer rating of 60.7 suggests that any average QB, when hit, turns in to essentially the worst starting QB in the league.  The table below shows the top, and bottom, qualified QB’s in 2015 sorted by Passer Rating and a mythical QB “2015 When Hit”.  The NFL’s last qualified starter to have a lower passer rating than “2015 When Hit” was Jimmy Clausen as the starter for the 2010 Panthers with a 58.4.

Individual Passers 2015 – to Week 11

Rk	Player	Att	Cmp	%Comp	Yds	Y/A	TD	%TD	Int	%Int	Rate
1	Carson Palmer	339	217	64	3066	9	27	8	9	2.7	108.6
2	Tom Brady	409	271	66.3	3320	8.1	25	6.1	4	1	107.4
3	Andy Dalton	335	218	65.1	2738	8.2	20	6	5	1.5	104
4	Drew Brees	370	257	69.5	2972	8	20	5.4	9	2.4	101.3
5	Tyrod Taylor	212	144	67.9	1669	7.9	11	5.2	4	1.9	100.9
6	Derek Carr	341	216	63.3	2565	7.5	21	6.2	6	1.8	99.4
7	Philip Rivers	420	288	68.6	3211	7.6	19	4.5	8	1.9	98.2
8	Aaron Rodgers	390	236	60.5	2684	6.9	24	6.2	4	1	97.4
9	Ben Roethlisberger	211	141	66.8	1887	8.9	10	4.7	7	3.3	97
10	Eli Manning	384	248	64.6	2700	7	21	5.5	6	1.6	96.9
23	Jameis Winston	314	183	58.3	2405	7.7	15	4.8	9	2.9	86.5
24	Joe Flacco	413	266	64.4	2791	6.8	14	3.4	12	2.9	83.1
25	Sam Bradford	335	214	63.9	2297	6.9	11	3.3	10	3	82.4
26	Blake Bortles	386	218	56.5	2623	6.8	20	5.2	12	3.1	81.8
27	Ryan Fitzpatrick	322	188	58.4	2199	6.8	16	5	11	3.4	81.5
28	Colin Kaepernick	244	144	59	1615	6.6	6	2.5	5	2	78.5
29	Nick Foles	256	145	56.6	1678	6.6	7	2.7	6	2.3	75.9
30	Andrew Luck	293	162	55.3	1881	6.4	15	5.1	12	4.1	74.9
31	Peyton Manning	322	193	59.9	2180	6.8	9	2.8	17	5.3	67.6
32	Ryan Mallett	147	78	53.1	770	5.2	3	2	4	2.7	63.6
33	2015 When Hit	1,152	497	43.1	6,786	5.9	51	4.4	46	4.0	60.7

2015 Defensive QB Hit Leaders – to Week 11

Rk	Player	Hit
1	J.WATT	22
2	E.ANSAH	15
3	O.VERNON	15
4	V.MILLER	13
5	L.WILLIAMS	12
6	J.ALLEN	11
7	C.AVRIL	11
8	A.CLAYBORN	11
9	C.DUNLAP	11
10	E.GRIFFEN	11
11	A.LYNCH	11
12	P.MCPHEE	11
13	F.RUCKER	11
14	M.BENNETT	10
15	C.CAMPBELL	10
16	M.JOHNSON	10
17	C.MATTHEWS	10
18	R.NINKOVICH	10
19	M.WILKERSON	10
20	Many Tied	9

1       1  The NFL Definition of QB Hit requires that the Passer is taken to the ground, this may be conservative, but assists in removing judgement

2      2   For seasons prior to 2015 Total QB Hits (including sack plays) can be found on Advanced Football Analytics, Brian Burke’s excellent site.  Alas, ESPN Stats and Information hired Burke in 2015 and the site is no longer maintained.  Non-sack Hits can usually be derived by subtracting sacks from Hits and adding back FF’s – half sacks should be treated as whole sacks for the purpose of this calculation.  Addr: http://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/index.php/home/stats/defensive-players/defensive-ends

3     3    AY / A = Adjusted Yards per Attempt is (Yards + TD’s *20 – Int * 45) / Attempts.  Similar to the NEWS QB rating offered in the classic, The Hidden Game of Football by Carroll, Palmer and Thorn.