Judgements X

By Clark Judge 

Justin Jefferson

You like that? You should.

With Minnesota’s 33-30 overtime defeat of Buffalo Sunday, the Vikings did what they could not the first nine weeks of the season: Win over skeptics who questioned why anyone should believe in them.

Well, question no more.

They just beat the Buffalo Bills … in Buffalo, no less … overcoming a 17-point fourth-quarter deficit to pull out an insane victory when common sense said they couldn’t. Call it a signature triumph or defining moment. Either fits. We know what to make of the Vikings now.

They’re 8-1, and they’re legit. End of story.

I know, they play in a division where no one else has a winning record, and, until Sunday, they hadn’t exactly been tested. In fact, they had exactly one victory over an opponent with a record above .500, and that was Miami. But it was Miami without Tua Tagovailoa. So it came with an asterisk.

Sunday’s defeat of Buffalo does not. The Bills were a trendy preseason pick to lap the AFC, if not the NFL. And Minnesota?

“They’re poised, they’re calm (and) they’re composed,” said NBC analyst and former coach Jason Garrett. “More than anything else, they believe they can do it.”

Because they have.

You saw what happened Sunday: The Vikings had every chance to cave but refused. There was a fourth-and-18 late in the fourth quarter that they converted. It took an astonishing one-handed catch by Justin Jefferson, yet they did it. There was a failed fourth-and 1 at the goal line that should have buried them. Somehow, some way, it did not. There were two Buffalo possessions – one in the fourth quarter, one in overtime – that should have produced points. They did not. Instead, they produced turnovers.

I think you get the idea. The Vikings would not go away, and don’t tell me that’s something new … because it’s not. Sunday’s game marked the fifth time this year they scored victories in the last 2:30 of games, and that should tell you something about this team. They’ve also scored seven straight victories, all by one possession, and that should tell you something, too.

They’re resilient, and they’re for real.

SUNDAY SCHOOL: FIVE THINGS WE LEARNED

1.       Leonardo DiCaprio is not the King of the World. Tom Brady is. With Sunday’s victory, he not only becomes the first NFL quarterback to win regular-season games in four countries (U.S., Mexico, UK and Germany); he remains undefeated (4-0) in international games.

2.       Green Bay saved its season … for now. Surprise, surprise. The downfield passing game is back in Green Bay. Aaron Rodgers completed just 14 passes vs. a solid Dallas defense, but they were good for 224 yards, three TDs and a come-from-behind upset of Dallas. It was Green Bay’s first victory in six games, and it kept the Packers from kissing off the season …at least for another week. That’s the good news. The bad: Green Bay’s next two opponents are division leaders Tennessee and Philadelphia, a combined 14-3.

3.       Josh Allen and the Bills are melting down. Once they were 6-1 and in charge of the AFC. Now they’re 6-3 and not even in charge of their own division. So what happened? Critical mistakes by Allen, that’s what. He had three in the last two periods Sunday and has four Red Zone interceptions in his last two games, both defeats. It would be convenient to blame Allen’s sore right elbow for some of the gaffes, but that botched snap at the goal-line in the last minute of the fourth quarter? Nope. Not a chance. As Allen goes, so go the Bills. And Josh Allen is not going well these days.

4.       Tua Tagovaiioa belongs in the MVP conversation. The key word there: Valuable. Buffalo isn’t first in the AFC East. Miami is. And Tagovailoa is a big reason. The Dolphins are 7-0 when he starts and finishes a game, 0-3 when he doesn’t. Then there’s this: Guess who leads the league in passer rating? Patrick Mahomes? Jalen Hurts? Kirk Cousins? Nope. Nope. And nope. It’s Tua at 118.3, with 18 TDs and only three interceptions – including 9 TDs and no picks the past three weeks.

5.       Maybe Jim Irsay knew something others did not. When the Colts’ owner hired former center Jeff Saturday as interim head coach, Hall-of-Fame candidate and ESPN analyst Joe Thomas called the move ‘egregious” … and he wasn’t alone. Granted, the hiring defied reason and, yes, it could backfire, but for one week at least it’s Jim Irsay 1, Haters 0. OK, so the Colts beat a floundering opponent. I don’t care. They won for the first time in four weeks, and there was nothing “egregious” about it. “Jeff Saturday,” said former Indianapolis coach Tony Dungy, “was the best man for the job … right now.”

THIRD AND 20

1.       Barring a complete meltdown or season-ending injury to Lamar Jackson, Baltimore won’t be caught in the NFC North. Reason: The schedule. It favors the Ravens and doesn’t favor the competition … meaning Cincinnati. Baltimore’s next seven opponents all have losing records, while Cincinnati faces a schedule that includes four division leaders -- Tennessee, Kansas City, Tampa Bay and Baltimore. Say goodnight.

2.       San Francisco’s win combined with Seattle’s loss puts the 49ers a half-game behind the Seahawks in the NFC West. But let’s be honest: The 49ers are the team to beat in a division where they’re 3-0 and outscored opponents, 81-30. The Christian McCaffrey deal and return of key veterans make San Francisco dangerous to everyone down the stretch.

3.       Someone asked why I’d vote for Geno Smith as my mid-season Comeback Player of the Year. “What did he come back from?” he said. Answer: Obscurity. Smith has eight games this season with two or more TD passes. Before that, he had seven in his entire career. Oh, yeah, he also quarterbacks the first-place Seattle Seahawks in the NFC West.

4.       Best throw of the afternoon: Dallas coach Mike McCarthy’s angry spike of his headset in overtime. I’d be mad, too, if my defense just got shredded for over 200 yards rushing … for the second straight week … and blew a 14-point lead. Dan Quinn, get to work. You have a problem to solve.

5.       If the season were to end today, the Saints would have the fourth pick of the 2023 draft. Logic says they take a quarterback with the choice, but they won’t. The reason: The Saints don’t have the fourth pick of the draft. They sent it to Philadelphia in a Draft Day deal this year.

6.       Don’t look now, but the Miami Dolphins …. not defending-champion Buffalo … are on top of the AFC East. In the midst of a four-game winning streak, they’re beginning to look more and more like Kansas City East. They feature playmakers everywhere, a quarterback who doesn’t make mistakes and a blitzkrieg offense that produces points galore. Put them together, and you have a legitimate Super Bowl threat.

7.       It took 10 games, but maybe Tampa Bay offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich got the message: It pays to have a balanced attack. The 24 rushing attempts the Bucs had in the first half Sunday were more than in any Tampa Bay game with Tom Brady at quarterback. Having Brady throw 40-55 times a game just wasn’t working this season, and a change was needed. So a change was made. Result: Tampa Bay threw 30 passes Sunday, ran 44 times and scored a KO over Seattle. “We don’t want to be one dimensional,” Brady told Peter King of NBC. ”We’ve been one dimensional too many times this year.”

8.       Chicago’s Justin Fields has arrived. I know, he still makes throws he shouldn’t (see Jeff Okudah’s pick six), but he’s taken what once was a listless offense off life support … not so much with his arm, but with his legs. Over the past two games, Fields has run for 325 yards and three TDs.

9.       Tom Brady won’t retire, but he should … as a wide receiver. He can throw. He cannot catch. Ditch the gimmick plays for a 45-year-old QB.

10.   The NFC East is king of the AFC. With the Giants’ defeat of Houston, the division is a combined 10-1 vs. the AFC this season (only Washington has a loss). Since the league merger in 1970, the best single-season record by any division vs. another conference is the 1976 AFC Central, 7-1 vs. the NFC. Dating back to 1989, five divisions have inter-conference records of .800 or better. Four went on to win Super Bowls.

11.   The more I see of the New Orleans Saints, the more I appreciate Sean Payton as a head coach.

12.   Justin Jefferson or Stefon Diggs? It’s a close call, but watch Jefferson take over Sunday’s game vs. Buffalo, and you have your answer. It’s Jefferson, the guy the Vikings chose with the 22^nd pick of the 2020 draft whom they gained in exchange for … you got it, Stefon Diggs. That’s the definition of a win-win deal.

13.   Don’t blame Denver’s defense for the Broncos’ miserable start. It held eight of its opponents to 19 or fewer points, and it’s the one team that can stonewall Tennessee’s Derrick Henry. You can look it up. Denver is the only team to face Henry four times and hold him to 3.3 yards rushing. He had 53 Sunday.

14.   It’s not just Josh Allen’s decline that has me concerned about Buffalo. It’s the Bills’ failure to win one-score games. Dating back to 2021, Buffalo is 16-1 in contests decided by nine or more points but 2-9 in games decided by eight or fewer. That’s not a coincidence. It’s a trend.

15.   Kadarius Toney will be explosive in Kansas City. He didn’t fit in with the Giants, and don’t ask me why. He can catch. He can run. He can even return punts. Now he’s where he can … and will … do all those things in Andy Reid’s offense. In short, he’s another in a litany of game breakers for Patrick Mahomes … and that’s a migraine for the rest of the AFC.

16.   Congratulations, Dan Campbell. That was Detroit’s first road win under him, ending a 13-game franchise skid.

17.   The Rams are toast. Their quarterback is hurt, their offensive line can’t protect, they can’t run, they can’t score and wide receiver Super Bowl MVP Cooper Kupp has an ankle injury that coach Sean McVay said “didn’t look good.” They’re also dead last in the NFC West, just lost to Arizona for only the second time in 13 tries and were booed off their home field. Fork, please.

18.   Speaking of Kupp, he had three catches for minus-1 yard Sunday. Over the past 30 games, he’s had four games with five or fewer receptions. All four have been vs. Arizona.

19.   Dallas is 2-2 with Dak Prescott. It was 4-1 with Cooper Rush. Just sayin’.

20.   Just when you think it couldn’t get worse for the Raiders, you’re wrong. Their latest loss was to a head coach with no experience (except in high school) and a veteran quarterback who was benched. Worse, they had 37-year-old Matt Ryan shred them for the longest run of his NFL career (it was 39 yards). So the hits keep coming for Josh McDaniels, now 7-24 in his last 31 games as a head coach, and you have to wonder if/when owner Mark Davis has buyer’s remorse. Maybe it’s a good thing Jeff Saturday doesn’t have that experience after all.

SUNDAY’S GOLD JACKET STATS

n  Minnesota’s Kirk Cousins has TD passes in 39 consecutive regular-season games, the longest active record in the NFL.

n  Patrick Mahomes is 12-0 at home vs. opponents with losing records.

n  The Chicago Bears have run for 225 or more yards in each of the past five games.

n  Jeff Okudah’s interception return for a touchdown was the Lions’ first in 60 games.

n  Cleveland is 0-3 this season following victories.

n  The 49ers’ Jimmy Garoppolo has a 10-2 record when he doesn’t have a touchdown pass.

SUNDAY’S GOLD JACKET QUOTES

“That was one of the great football experiences I’ve ever had.” – Tampa Bay quarterback Tom Brady on playing in Germany.

“Losing sucks. That’s just what it is. You hate to lose. Especially that way.” – Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen.

“I feel like we might be blinking a little bit.” – Buffalo wide receiver Stefon Diggs.

“For that to be the result of all of that effort pisses me off. Pisses a lot of guys off.” – Raiders’ quarterback Derek Carr.