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Wednesday, April 3, 2024

Aaron Donald, the G.O.A.T.?

By John Turney 
Sometimes players referred to as "generational" eclipse the usual standards and must be measured on a more stringent scale reserved for rare players. Names like Jim Brown, Johnny Unitas, Dick Butkus, Lawrence Taylor, Jerry Rice and Tom Brady are prime examples.

But so is Rams' defensive tackle Aaron Donald, who retired last weekend. 

In terms of his legacy, you can't ask questions like, "Will he be in the Hall of Fame? Or, "Will he be a first-ballot Hall of Famer?". The answers are obvious. No, for Aaron Donald, it's more appropriate to ask, "Is he the greatest defensive tackle of all time?" In other words, did his career measurably surpass his predecessors?

Let's explore.

THE CASE FOR AARON DONALD

Before Donald established himself as a dominant force, the "Mr. Rushmore" of defensive tackles was pretty much a consensus consisting of Hall-of-Famers Bob Lilly, Joe Greene, Merlin Olsen and Alan Page. They were dominant for a long time, played on great defenses and won the most personal accolades, i.e., the "alls," such as All-Pro, Pro Bowls all-decade, etc.

There can be considerable discussion as to which one was the best, and there was. But then Aaron Donald entered the game in the last decade, and the debate changed. The 6-foot-one, 280-pound first-round pick out of Pitt started his career with a bang, and that bang never stopped, even through his final season.

Considered undersized for a defensive interior player, he blew people away at the 2014 NFL scouting combine by running a 4.67 40-yard dash (one that included a 1.63 10-yard split) and bench-pressing 225 pounds 35 times. All are between the 90th and 99th percentiles for his position, and all were accomplished by someone in the bottom ten percentiles in height and weight.

We should have known then. Aaron Donald was a dynamo that came in a relatively small package.

As a rookie three-technique for the St. Louis Rams, Donald was a second-team All-Pro, made the Pro Bowl and was easily the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year. In his next nine seasons, he was a consensus All-Pro eight times, went to every Pro Bowl and was voted Defensive Player of the Year three times.

No player has ever won that more.

He also logged 111 sacks, forced 24 fumbles and incessantly pressured quarterbacks while being double-and-triple-teamed and held more often than you can count.

Donald made a habit of sealing games with big plays, with Super Bowl LVI the most notable example. He closed out that victory with a signature move -- breaking through the Cincinnati interior to force quarterback Joe Burrow into a hurried ... and incomplete ... pass on Cincinnati's final play.

During his time in the NFL, no player had more QB sacks, regardless of position, and none was celebrated as often in the new world of defensive metrics. The analytics site, Pro Football Focus (PFF), graded him as the NFL's top player three times ... its best defensive player six times ... and seven times the top-graded defensive interior lineman. It also had him producing the most pressures of anyone, with pressures characterized as a combination of sacks, quarterback hits and hurries. 

But PFF was not the only one to rave about Donald. 

Check other organizations that tracked QB hits, hurries, knockdowns, pressures and disruptions -- sites like Next Gen Stats, Football Outsiders, Sports Radar and Sports Information Solutions. You find the same conclusions. Aaron Donald was atop their charts year-in and year out.

In addition to his 111 career sacks, a little digging into NFL gamebooks reveals that he had 92 tackles for losses on plays other than sacks, usually plays involving a running back. He was so quick that he could get into his gap before an opposing guard could defend it. But if that player tried to anticipate Donald's first move ... that is, if he attacked too quickly ... then Donald would just slip behind him and "backdoor it," as Donald put it.

Result: A running back going nowhere. 

Donald was also someone who couldn't be displaced in run blocks, even if it was a double team. His strengths and leverage wouldn't allow it. As a result, he wasn't a one-trick pony, someone like a pass-rush specialist, if you will. He was as dominant against the run as he was in pass plays, as other, more detailed, metrics illustrated. Whether it was "pass rush win rate" (ESPN Analytics), "double team pressure leaders" or "run stuff rate" (both Next Gen Stats), Donald was the leader in the years those stats were available.

I guess what I'm saying is that Aaron Donald was more than just elite for a defensive tackle; he was super-elite, ultra-elite ... one of the best players in the NFL for a full decade. He was both stout and slippery, a master of hand use who could read blocks and blocking schemes. In short, he was king of the physical and mental aspects of defensive interior line play.

Stats and metrics told you that. Opponents told you that. TV announcers told you that. So did opposing coaches and teammates. Virtually everyone and everything --  including your eyes -- told you that he was special.

THE "MT. RUSHMORE" OF DEFENSIVE TACKLES

So back to the question: Was Aaron Donald the G.O.A.T.? Let's take a peek at what the four "Mt. Rushmore tackles" accomplished and then decide:

Bob Lilly

14 seasons, seven consensus All-Pro seasons and 11 Pro Bowls.

One Super Bowl ring.

Unofficial sack total -- 95-1/2.

By far the best player on the great Dallas "Doomsday" defenses. He never won a Defensive Player-of-the-Year award. But the NEA didn't award one until 1966, while the AP began in 1972. Had there been one in 1964, it would have been Lilly, and there were other years where he'd have been in the running.

For the Rushmore tackles, there are far too many positives to cover. So let's just grant that they built their reputations on rare abilities and accomplishments. Separating them won't be easy, but citing possible "holes" in their near-perfect resumes can help ... and all four, to small degrees, have imperfections.

For example, prior to his era of dominance (call it 1964-72) Lilly was "spinning his wheels" (as Tom Landry called it) as a left defensive end. So he was moved to right defensive tackle in mid-1963 when Landry implemented the "Flex defense" full-time on likely run downs. The idea was to prevent offensive tackles from "do-dad" blocking Lilly (now called "duo" blocking), and it worked to perfection.

Bob Lilly became a legendary defensive tackle. 

Then, in Lilly's final two years, especially 1974, he was slowed by a bad back and removed on passing downs. Perhaps Landry thought in years 13 and 14 of Lilly's career where he was slowed by an ailing back, the team was better off with Bill Gregory in the game on third and long situations.

Nevertheless, he was "Mr. Cowboy" and one of the all-time greats.

Joe Greene

13 seasons, three times consensus All-Pro, 10 Pro Bowls.

1972 and 1974 NFL Defensive Player of the Year.

Four Super Bowl rings.

Unofficial sack total -- 77-1/2.

At his peak (1969-mid-1975), "Mean Joe" may have been the most feared defensive tackle of the four. He was unblockable and could not be intimidated.

But remember: We're dissecting these careers, and upon close inspection, find that in 1975 Greene was slowed by a pinched nerve in his neck -- an injury that lingered through 1976 and one that, by Greene's admission, limited him.

While he wasn't as effective a pass rusher afterward, he remained a dominant run stuffer and a Pro Bowl-level player. But he was no longer someone who would compete for the Defensive Player of the Year as he did the first half of his career.

His strength and quickness remained, which meant he could still be devastating vs. the run in Pittsburgh's "Stunt 4-3" scheme. However, the last half of his career, he wasn't the pass rusher he was before.

Merlin Olsen

15 seasons, five-times consensus All-Pro, 14 Pro Bowls.

No Super Bowl rings.

Unofficial sack total -- 91,

Olsen's peak was not as high as Lilly, Greene or Page, but he was more consistent doing what he was asked in tandem with Deacon Jones and, later, Jack Youngblood. With two elite edge rushers who were as fast as they were quick, someone had to make sure there were no gaps in the defensive line, and Olsen often was that someone. He had to be aware of traps, screens, draws, you name it ... anything that could hurt an aggressive defense.

"That became my job", Olsen said.

 And he did it well, making a ton of plays. 

Olsen's only significant setback was a knee injury that occurred in the Pro Bowl following the 1970 season, and it probably affected him through the 1971 season. Nevertheless, he had fabulous years after that. Unfortunately, by then Greene and Page had established themselves as the top two defensive tackles in the game.

In the final analysis, Olsen had no negatives in his career. He was consistent from one year to the next. But if he was the league's best defensive tackle in the NFL, his reign was short. It would have been in 1969 and 1970 ... and that's a maybe, and it was only by a fraction over Lilly. Still, he was a top-two finisher many times, if you follow.

Alan Page

15 seasons, five-times consensus All-Pro, 9 Pro Bowls.

1971 NFL MVP.

No Super Bowl rings.

Unofficial sack total -- 148-1/2.

Of these four candidates, Page had the highest peak, mostly because he was the first defensive player to be voted an NFL MVP. Plus, to this day, he was as effective a pass rusher from the inside as the game has seen -- right there with Donald and John Randle. 

Lighting quick off the snap, Page could make guards look silly. Coach Bud Grant gave him the freedom to play anywhere from opposite a center to the inside of an opposing tackle, which was unusual for that era. But it worked, with Page in the conversation as best-ever defensive tackle for the first decade of his career.

But then something happened.

Late in his career, he not only attended law school but took up marathon running, too. In the process, he shed over 20 pounds, dropping his weight from around 245 pounds to 225 or so. And he played at that weight from 1977 through the rest of his career. 

Page contended the weight loss was "mostly fat," but, whatever it was, it had an impact on his career. He suddenly was displaced by offensive linemen, so much so that Grant released the former MVP early in the 1978 season. From there, he went on to Chicago where he played well as a pass rusher but wasn't as strong stopping the run as you'd expect from an all-time great.

But in 1980-81, then-Bears' defensive coach Buddy Ryan began implementing his "46 defense," with Page positioned over center and a defensive lineman placed to either side over the guards. It created a one-on-one match for Page with the center, and it worked. Even at a lighter weight, Alan Page excelled.

THE VERDICT

Okay, now that we've explored and explained some facts about the competition, there's one other factor that should be included ... and that's supporting casts. In other words, whom did these candidates play with and how much help did they have?

Lilly had solid players like Jethro Pugh and George Andrie flanking him, but he also had Chuck Howley, Lee Roy Jordan, Mel Renfro, Cornell Green and others who made the "Doomsday" defense what it was. All were All-Pros. Howley and Renfro are Hall-of-Famers. Cliff Harris is too, but he was more of a "Doomsday II" player, the second iteration of the famed Cowboys' defense.

Bottom line:  Lilly had a lot of help.

Joe Greene was part of the "Steel Curtain" and shared the defensive line with Pro Bowl-level players like L.C. Greenwood, Dwight White and Ernie "Fats" Holmes. But look who was behind them: Elite players galore in the second and third levels, four of whom are in the Hall of Fame -- Jack Lambert, Jack Ham, Mel Blount and Donnie Shell.

Like Lilly, Mean Joe had help.

As part of the "Fearsome Foursome" of the 1960s, Merlin Olsen played on one of the top two or three front fours ever. But he was part of terrific defenses in the 1970s, too. 

Hall-of-Famers Deacon Jones and Jack Youngblood were on his left, while Pro Bowlers like Roger Brown and Larry Brooks stood to his right. Teammates who went to Pro Bowls or who were named All-Pro included Maxie Baughan, Isiah Robertson and Jack Reynolds.

Yep, Olsen was not alone, either.

Then there's the Purple Gang that surrounded Page in Minnesota. Hall-of-Fame defensive end Carl Eller and Pro Bowl defensive end Jim Marshall teamed with him on the line, while Hall-of-Fame safety Paul Krause roamed deep. There were also Pro Bowl linebackers and defensive backs in there with him, as well.

That makes it four-for-four in Mt. Rushmore tackles as elite parts of elite defensive units that were some of the league's best-ever. They could stop the run, sack the quarterback, pick off passes, limit yards and shut out opponents. In short, they were dominant.

So, now, what about Aaron Donald? How were the defenses he played on? Answer: Good but not great.

From 2014-23, the Rams generally were in the top 10 of most of the same categories mentioned, with the exception of team sacks. They were third there. But with the rest, they finished more like sixth, eighth and ninth. Donald played on one top defense (arguably the NFL's best in 2020) and some good ones, but he also played on some that were merely average.

Or worse. 

As for the "help" question, Donald teamed with really good players for a short time, but, for most of his career, he didn't have Hall-of-Fame-caliber teammates. Granted, he played with All-Pro Jalen Ramsey for a few years and had Von Miller for half a season, and those two contributed to the Rams' Super Bowl victory in 2021.

Pro Bowler Robert Quinn was there for Donald's rookie season of 2014, too, and linebacker Bobby Wagner was a second-team All-Pro in 2022. But they were the exceptions, not the rule. Simply put, there weren't a lot of  Rams' defenders dotting Pro Bowl rosters from 2014-2023, where there were with Lilly, Greene, Olsen and Page.

In fact, former Rams' defensive line coach Mike Waufle (who implored the Rams to choose Donald in 2014, calling him the "best player in the draft") suggested last weekend on the NFL's Sirius XM Radio channel that the Rams' inability to provide Donald consistent support from edge rushers may, in part, have contributed to his early retirement. That's not to say Donald did it all alone. He didn't. He had help, but it wasn't at the position-to-position talent level of the Cowboys, Steelers, Rams and Vikings. 

Of course, the elephant in the room is the era, and that matters when trying to pick the G.O.A.T. because ignoring it leaves out important and relevant details.  The 1960s and 1970s were simply different than the 2010s in countless ways. For instance, Donald never went into an NFL game with a size advantage vs. those blocking him. His advantage was his strength and quickness, and they more than compensated for 20, 30 or 50-pound disadvantages. 

With the exception of Alan Page, our old-school guys were considered large men -- even at 265 or 275 pounds -- and in almost every game they played, they held size advantages over their opponents. Oddly, Donald weighed roughly the same, but he played in an era where that was considered small.

Then there's the question of how the game was played. In Donald's era, linemen could do far more with their hands than decades ago, and it showed on countless replays. There you could see offensive linemen grabbing Donald on plays where nothing was called. In my opinion, the "eye test" tells you that Donald had it tougher in terms of tactics used against him. 

Enough already. I know what you're wondering:  If there is evidence that Donald is the best ever? Well, yes, there is.

And yes, he is.

Given the totality of everything -- personal honors, statistics, team success, era considerations, amount of surrounding star power, and the "eye test" -- Aaron Donald is the G.O.A.T. of defensive tackles. He stood above his peers and at a greater level than his predecessors.

He just did. 

Donald also didn't have any of the nit-picks mentioned above about Lilly, Greene, Olsen and Page -- that is, unless you think playing 10 years doesn't compare to 13, 14 or 15 seasons or that Donald didn't play for elite defenses.

But those two points would be about it. Aaron Donald retired when he was elite, so he didn't have the decline that can happen with prolonged careers. Plus, he holds the advantage over the four others in nearly every category, which -- for me, at least -- makes him the best defensive tackle ever, bar none.

Surprising? It shouldn't be. Not at this point. It's simply a matter of four guys who drew 10s on a scale of 1-10 and Donald ascending to a level that, as Spinal Tap guitarist Nigel Tufnel might say, "goes to 11."

It's that simple.

6 comments:

  1. From Brian wolf ...

    He has a great argument, especially in this era of non-penalized offensive holding and pre-snap movement. I always thought Lilly was the best overrall, with Page the best pass rusher but they would be jumping offsides with what offensive linemen can get away with today. Donald's Rhino like charge will be missed by fans and he will be enshrined 1st ballot. Whether that helps Jason Kelce with his own 1st ballot induction at center in 2029, remains to be seen. Both had the accolades but Kelce may have to wait.

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  2. Always a good read, John. Thank you!
    So which previous occupant of Mt. Rushmore are you bumping to make room for Donald? :-)

    And is Leo Nomellini (10 pro bowls, 6 all-pros, team of the 1950's) number 6 on your list?

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    1. I don't think you can have a Rushmore anymore...breaking up Olsen, Lillp. Page and Greene would be like breakingu p John, Paul, George and Ringo.

      Now, there are 5 .... Rushmore is a fun thing, but it's arbitray so maybe for some positions there isn't a Rushmore

      Donald

      Lilly
      Greene
      Olsen
      Page

      White
      Nomellini

      something like that, but who knows, maybe someone else can pick a top 4 with Donald in it.

      I cannot think who'd come off. Can you?


      Also, note that from film it seems foir 2 of Nomellini's All-Pro he was an offensive tackle far more that a DT, even though he played both ways.

      Reading T.J.'s book on the 1950s that iswhat I gather plus the early 1950s films I have.

      T.J. would be the final authority, but really, it is likelyt that Nomellini is a 4 time All-Pro DT and a 2 time All-Pro OT

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    2. BW ...

      Its a tough call whether I would replace Donald with Greene on my Rushmore, yet Mean Joe could really absorb blockers while stopping the run and making the MLBs' job much easier, but he really wasnt asked to be a tremendous pass rusher, though he could get to the QB. Was Donald's ability against the run underrated? John might think so, so maybe I could give him the edge over Greene, yet Joe wasnt even just about great play, he embodied from day one what Chuck Noll was about in Pittsburgh ... not allowing his coached team to get pushed around like previous teams.

      John Madden felt Greene slanted or just off the center with Lambert stacked behind him or beside him WAS the Steel Curtain defense ...

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    3. I agree that the Mt. Rushmore ranking is arbitrary....
      There can be more than 4. So, I also wouldn't remove anyone.

      And I realize I have reverse-recency bias...
      It is difficult for me to rank people I watched during my adult lifetime with the historical greats...

      As a kid I saw Deacon Jones and Merlin Olsen play at Kezar and it is hard for me to imagine anyone will ever replace my childhood heroes...
      that's one reason I value your (and others') learned opinions. I am aware of my own prejudice and need to hear a balancing opinion.

      As always, thanks for providing that and sharing your expansive knowledge!

      Best,

      J.

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  3. somewhat more succinctly: YES.

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