Packers Overcome Third Downers to Beat Rams

By Eric Goska

Jordan Love's 12-yard run was Green Bay's only
third-down conversion against the Rams Sunday.
(photos by Eric Goska)

Attaining a high score in certain arcade games can extend play.

Achieving success on third down in football can extend drives.

The Packers were no pinball wizards on third down Sunday at SoFi Stadium. In notching a 24-19 victory over Los Angeles, Green Bay had to overcome its lack of production on third-down before the clock signaled game over.

While third-down conversion rates might not correlate with winning as closely as other statistics do (average yards per pass play or turnover differential), teams with higher conversion rates tend to fare better than teams on the lower end of the spectrum. The two winningest teams during the regular-season from 2019 through 2023 – the Chiefs at 63-20 and the Bills at 58-24 – also boasted the highest third-down conversion rates – 48.1 and 46.3 percent, respectively.

Matt LaFleur’s Packers ranked seventh at 43.1 percent over that five-year span. The team’s record of 56-27 is tied with Baltimore for third-best during that stretch.

So when LaFleur’s team lays an egg on third down as they did against the Rams – converting just one of eight – that’s cause for concern. More often than not, a rate that low leads to defeat.

Green Bay has converted one or fewer third downs in a regular-season game 47 times since 1954. Its record in those games is 11-36.

Some of the worst outings in Packers history can be found among the losses. 

• Green Bay (0-10 on third down) was throttled 26-14 by the Lions on Thanksgiving Day 1962.
  
• Green Bay (1-10) was thrashed 61-7 by the Bears in December 1980.
• Green Bay (0-8) was hammered 31-10 at Denver as the Packers mustered just 35 offensive plays in October 1999.

Nothing that extreme awaited the Green and Gold in California. That they scored three touchdowns on drives devoid of third downs helped immensely.

During those three advances – one in the first quarter and two in the third – Green Bay piled up 220 of its 323 yards while earning 10 of its 19 first downs. A windfall of 119 yards came on two receptions alone – a 53-yarder by Jayden Reed in the first quarter and a 66-yarder by Tucker Kraft in the third that put the Packers up 17-13.

That prosperity made Green Bay’s struggles on third down less obvious. But labor they did. Jordan Love completed three of six passes for six yards. He was sacked once for a loss of eight. And he threw a pick-six – to Rams safety Jaylen McCollough – while attempting to avoid a safety in the end zone late in the second quarter.

That’s seven pass plays for a net of minus-2 yards. Green Bay has finished in the red just four times in the passing game in the regular season on third down under LaFleur, regardless of how often they converted. The team is 2-2 in those games.

The Packers’ sole third-down conversion occurred in the fourth quarter. Love scrambled for 12 to secure a fresh set of downs at the Green Bay 42. His dash helped sustain a 14-play, 43-yard, clock-eating advance that consumed eight minutes, 13 seconds, leaving the Rams with not enough time (6:02) in which to erase an 11-point deficit (13-24).

Aversion to Conversion
Since 1954, the five regular-season victories in which the Packers converted no more than one-third down and gained zero or fewer passing yards on that down.

Date                       3D             3D Pass          Opponent          Result
Dec. 15, 1985         1-10                 -20                 Lions                      GB won, 26-23
Dec. 5, 1965            0-9                  -13                 Vikings                  GB won, 24-19
Oct. 6, 2024            1-8                   -2                  Rams                     GB won, 24-19
Oct. 8, 1978            0-12                  -1                  Bears                     GB won, 24-14
Oct. 4, 1970            1-13                   0                  Vikings                  GB won, 13-10