The Steep Learning Curve for This Shula and His L.A. Rams' Defense

 By John Turney 

Chris Shula

Analytics reveal how tough the young season has been on the grandson of Don Shula and his ravaged Rams' defense.

Chris Shula is more than the grandson of Hall-of-Fame coach Don Shula. He's also the Los Angeles Rams' new defensive coordinator, and neither he ... nor his defense ... is off to a great start this season.

And that's an understatement.

The Rams rank 28th in overall defense and are below the fold in nearly every defensive category, including dead last vs. the run and 29th in points allowed. 

To be fair, Shula - who last year was the team's linebackers coach and headed the secondary in 2022 -- took over a defense without future Hall-of-Fame tackle and three-time Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald, and that can't be understated. Also, right before the season, the Rams traded starting linebacker Earnest Jones to Tennessee for nearly nothing (future late-round draft picks).

So he was behind the eight ball from jump street. But things have gotten worse since. So, how bad is it? Let's break it down using some of the available analytic data.  

RUN DEFENSE

The Rams allow 157.6 yards rushing a game, which is 77th in 87 seasons of franchise history for the opening five games (the Rams had a bye last weekend). They also allow 4.81 yards per rush, which is 81st of 87 seasons. Granted, some seasons were worse. But only six.

What should concern Rams' fans most, however, is how this has happened. According to NextGen Stats (NGS), the Rams have gotten there by playing with more players in the box than in recent seasons ... and the envelope, please:

-- Shula this season has deployed "light boxes" (six or fewer defenders) 39.3 percent of the time, down from 49.2 percent last year (including the playoffs) and 55.8 percent in 2022.

-- In 2021, the year the Rams won the Super Bowl, they used a "light box" 57.3 percent of the time.

-- In 2020,  it was up to 69.0 percent. That was the season first-time defensive coordinator Brandon Staley installed the Vic Fangio-based defense that the Rams still use, though Shula's predecessor, Raheem Morris, and Shula himself put their own stamps on it.

One of the theories of the Rams' scheme is to employ a "light box," a 5-1 defense which employs Fangio's match quarters coverages but might have to change. Too many teams are gashing it with long runs. And, per NGS, this is on plays that were runs -- it does not include the Rams' 4-2-5 nickel defense used in probable passing downs..

But there's more.

This year the Rams use stacked boxes (eight or more defenders) 20.9 percent of the time. That's up 2.3 percent from last year and  8.2, 7.9 and 13.1 percent from the previous three seasons.

That means they're doing less with more.

They can't use "light boxes" to allow an extra defender in coverages, moving him forward to help defend the run. But even with additional help in the box, the Rams still haven't been effective vs. the run. Run stuff percentage (stopping a run for a loss or no gain) this season is 11.0 percent, which ranks 30th. That's down appreciably from the last six years when it ranged from 13.6 in 2020 to 18.1 percent in 2021).

The past two seasons it was right around 14.5 percent.

So what gives? Too often, ballcarriers have gotten outside the tackles and produced big gains -- especially on quarterback scrambles. This year 59.5 percent of opponents' runs have been from the tackle out -- the highest figure for the Rams in the NextGen-era, which began in 2018.

Not only that, but much of that yardage comes after contact. Again, as per NGS, 3.20 yards per rush occur after first contact -- the Rams' highest number since NGS began tracking that statistic. By comparison, the figure was 2.50 yards last year and 2.99, 2.76 and 2.58 in each of the previous three seasons.

Translation: Tacklers aren't tackling, which other metrics confirm. Analytics site Pro Football Focus (PFF) has the Rams ranked 29th in their exclusive tackling grade. A year ago, they were 23rd (including the playoffs) and second in 2022. In 2021, the Rams' Super Bowl year, their tacklers ranked 10th, while in 2020, Staley's first year, PFF had them second.

Put it all together, and you have the Rams' defense doing less with more in terms of player positioning, losing the edge and failing to tackle properly. In short, it's a recipe for disaster.

A popular and insightful metric created by Football Outsiders (FO), another analytics site with data now found on FTN, is called DVOA (defensive value above average), and that also reflects the Rams' poor performance vs the run. In that analytic, Shula's defense this year ranks 30th, 10 slots below 2023 and 17 down from 2022.

The 2020 and 2021 seasons, however, aren't even in the same universe. In both seasons, the Rams ranked third.

PASS RUSH

It doesn't get any better here.

The Rams' defensive passer rating is 117.2, the worst in the club's history after five games. Yep, 87th out of 87 seasons in franchise history ... as in dead last. Granted it's not fair to compare the 1970s to now, but the 117.2 rating is worse than all recent seasons, and that is fair.

Much of that is based on yards allowed per pass play, which is 7.9 yards, which is also last in the NFL. To address that the past two games, Shula has blitzed more than the first three contests -- but it's a blitz rate of 24 percent, lower than any season since 2018. However, if the recent trend continues, it will probably end up being on par with those of past defensive coordinators Wade Phillips, Staley and Morris.

In any case, it's an indication that Shula knows that improvement ... and a lot of it ... is needed to slow opponents' passing attacks, and the results have been mixed.

The good news is that the pressure percentage is better than the last couple of years -- meaning that, while they're blitzing a little less (including games four and five), they're getting more pressures. It's more or less the inverse of the running game: They're doing slightly better with slightly fewer resources.

But as NGS stated on its website, while the Rams have applied good pressure, their sack-to-pressure ratio is fifth worst in the NFL -- meaning they're getting close but not finishing the deal. While it's accurate to say pressures matter more than sacks, at some point those pressures must be a factor. Nothing wrecks game plans like hitting and sacking quarterbacks, some of which force turnovers.

The sack percentage is six percent so far this year -- slightly lower than the past two seasons -- despite public criticism of the pass rush. So the Rams are forcing quarterbacks to move, but too often they're not putting them on the ground -- some of which is due to poor tackling.

Sound similar to what's wrong with the run defense? It should. Rookie edge defender Jared Verse is among the best at applying pressure, but he's missed the second-most tackles in the NFL (PFF) this season with 11, including several would-be sacks.

Now for the bad news.

The pressure percentages (which are good on the surface) are a little skewed, and I'll tell you why: Though pressures are up, the time it takes to pressure the quarterback (TTP) is actually longer than in past years. According to NGS, it takes the Rams 2.94 seconds to pressure per pass.

Good? Hardly. Only the other L.A. team ranks lower at 3.01 seconds. 

That's a drop from last season when the Rams' number was 2.66, according to NGS, but a far cry from 2.67 in 2022, 2.54 in 2021 and 2.62 in 2020 when the Rams rsnked anywhere from eighth best to 19th ... or far superior to what's happening now.

All this translates to a longer "Time to Throw" (TTT), with opposing quarterbacks having more time this season than any since NGS got into the analytics business. The TTT this year is 2.93 seconds where a year ago it was 2.85 and anywhere from a league-best 2.58 to 2.70 in 2018-22.

The bottom line is that this year passers have more time to throw than in the past when the Rams (thanks, Aaron Donald) were among the NFL's top teams to hurry quarterbacks. 

So here's the summary in English: Through five games this season, the Rams' defense applies a higher percentage of pressures but takes more time to reach quarterbacks, creating more time for its secondary to be victimized. I know, it seems counterintuitive. But it's technology-based, so it's hard to argue with the data.

Many Rams' media sites tout the number of pressures the defense is collecting, especially the top rookies, but they're not digging deep. If they did, they'd realize that an ineffective pass rush is part of the defense's problem.  

The next metric may offer an explanation.

Let's move to the average "get off" time of Rams' pass rushers, or the average time it takes for a defender to get across the line of scrimmage when rushing/blitzing. The lower the time, the better ... and, according to NGS, this season's average "get-off" time for the Rams' pass rushers is .87 seconds. 

Once again, it falls short of its predecessors.

In fact, it's the highest (worst) of previous Rams' defenses led by Phillips, Morris and Staley. Last year, it was .83 ... the year before, .85 ... and then it goes .83, .80. .80 and .81. It also ranks 26th, where a year ago the Rams were 16th and 18th in 2022.

What makes that perplexing is that Verse has one of the best "get-off" times this season (.77). In fact, only seven players in the NFL are better. If not for him, the Rams' time would be the worst in the NFL -- with much of the problem coming from the interior where, again, the loss of Donald is an enormous factor. 

Defensive tackle Kobie Turner's "get-off" is off almost a tenth of a second (from .93 to 1.01) this year. Nose tackle Bobby Brown III is down, too, though not as much. And rookie defensive interior Braden Fiske, who's taking some of Donald's snaps, is at 1.01 seconds -- not what you'd expect, given his purported quickness. 

Big men Neville Gallimore and Tyler Davis are also not as quick as their counterparts last year, but they've gotten more snaps than expected because they're needed to stop the run. With the Rams using more base defenses and stacked boxes, big linemen are called on more often -- meaning "get-offs" will be slower.

The results speak for themselves.

COVERAGE

So how does this affect pass coverage?

The number of explosive plays is up, but, oddly, the distance between defenders and players in routes is not. In fact, it's as good this year as it's been in the past. NGS data shows the Rams' defense averages 3.3 yards of separation between a defender and receiver, which is the same as last year 2018-19 and 2021 and better than 2022 (3.7) and 2020 (3.6).

For context, dating to 2018, the league's best is always around 3.0 yards, while the worst is just over 4.0. So the Rams are doing well here, except ... well, except their defenders aren't making plays, with too many opponents making big ones instead.

The first career touchdown scored by Cardinals' rookie wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., for example, was caught over Tre'Davious White, whom the Rams signed this year to shore up the cornerback position. White's coverage was tight, but the rookie still made the catch and scored.

On other plays, there were instances where defensive backs were out of position, suffered from miscommunications or were flat-out beaten. Like the run defense, the pass defense DVOA doesn't paint a pretty picture, ranking 30th, where the past four season were better: 20th in 2023; 25th in 2022, fifth in 2021 and fourth in 2020.

Meaning? The Rams' third level of defense is no better off than the defensive line and linebackers.

OVERALL DEFENSE

Starting with DVOA Shula's defense ranks 30th overall in a 32-team league -- and that's not good. In 2023 it was 22nd and third in both 2020 and 2021.

Bill Belichick is fond of saying that "stats are for losers" and that the measuring stick for all defenses is points allowed because "finals scores are for winners." The website, Team Rankings, offers the proof.

The Rams allow opponents (they exclude points allowed by offense and special teams) 26.6 points a game -- or 29th of 32 teams.  That's 5.5 more points a game than in 2023 and just under six points a game higher than in 2022. The Rams were fifth in 2021 when they allowed offenses to score 19.5 points a game and second the year before, allowing 17.9 net points. 

Stats may be for losers, but allowing that many points is for losers, too. The Rams are 1-4.

Just so you know: All these analytics figures and mumbo jumbo may not be familiar to many, but they're pretty much mainstream these days. Additionally, these featured metrics are similar in rankings as traditional NFL stats, such as rushing yards per game, yards per pass allowed, total yards allowed, etc.

WHAT NEXT?

So now that was have the numbers, metrics, analytics, whatever you want to label them, what about "the eye test?"

When you sit through Rams' games, you see edge players too often losing containment on running plays or getting gashed up the middle. The missed tackles are glaring. Big plays surrendered in the passing game are evident. The linebacker play seems subpar. 

Ultimately, the eye test tells you what the numbers reveal -- namely, that the Los Angeles Rams' defense is bad. Really bad.

The upside is that things can change. It's early, with a lot of football yet to be played. And with young rookies like Verse and Fiske and super sophomores Turner and Byron Young up front, there's hope. Those four have the talent to one day be Pro Bowlers.

Plus, there's the possibility that the Rams make a change at linebacker this week. They're down, and I mean DOWN, on Troy Reeder and Christian Rozeboom and have Omar Speights, a rookie UDFA, and third-year UDFA Jake Hummel waiting in the wings -- with impatient fans hoping they step in.

In the secondary, Darious Williams -- a UFA signing from Jacksonville -- is back from injury, so he could also help. This is his second stint with the Rams (he's now played for all defensive coordinators of the McVay era), and his experience, leadership and skills should make a difference. 

Sean McVay indicated there will be changes this week when the Rams face the Las Vegas Raiders, but a few new starters won't magically fix the defense.

So what can?

Maybe it's just fundamentals, like setting the edge and tackling better. That would help. So would sacking the quarterback or applying faster pressures. I don't know if three-hundredths of a second makes a difference, but I do know that good players and good defenses have better analytics.

Chris Shula is clearly someone McVay trusts, and that counts for a lot. The question is: How much does Shula trust his defense to improve from the first five weeks?

"I think there are a lot of things where you look at the tape and you think [we] played some good ball," he said. "(But) it's got to be more consistent, got to be cleaner and [we have] got to execute better. I think there are a lot of times where we've done that. We've just got to do it consistently for 60 minutes."

That's the hope. The reality is that if they don't, Don Shula's grandson may not last long in his new job.