Running Backs With Short Careers: With Terrell Davis in the HOF is There Hope?

LOOKING AHEAD

By John Turney

Credit:  Alain Moreau 

Now that the Terrell Davis should he/should he not be in the Hall of Fame is over, perhaps it is a good time to look ahead at some other running backs that had short careers due to injury (as was the case with Terrell Davis).

We have included a few Hall of Famers for some comparison, they are not necessarily "lower tier" Hall of Famers, just players who had shorter careers than some of the running backs who were healthier and could compile lots of yards.

All graphics courtesy of Pro Football Reference

 Priest Holmes had three Offensive Player of the Year-type seasons from 2001 through 2003. He was on his way to a fourth in 2004 but missed half the season due to an injury. He was never the same after that. His per 16-game averages for 2001-04 are as follows: 343 carries for 1624 yards (a 4.7 average) and 21 rushing touchdowns. His receiving totals per 16 games are 67 catches for 641 yards and 2 TDs (9.6 average). That's a per 16-game average of 2265 yards from scrimmage and 23 touchdowns from scrimmage. Not bad production.

He didn't have the post-season production that Davis did so the question is how do his three best compare to Davis's?

Davis was likely voted over the top due to his post-season success. He was extremely effective and was a major factor in the Broncos being home two Lombardi Trophies to Denver. His rookie season was excellent but it was his All-Pro seasons of 1996-98 that defined his career.

Larry Brown, according to Paul "Dr. Z" Zimmerman, ran too hard for his body. Zim said the same thing about Wilbert Montgomery who could also be featured in this post. Brown was the AP and NEA MVP in 1972. He could have had more yards that season but George Allen rested him the final two weeks of the season. It was a wise move as Allen relied on Brown and had him carry the ball 55 times in two playoff games. It got the Redskins to the Super Bowl but Brown and the Redskins ran into the No Name defense of the soon-to-be 17-0 Dolphins.

Brown was also an All-Pro in 1970 and a Second-team All-Pro in 1971 after being a Pro Bowler as a rookie in 1969. So his "peak", if you will, is 4-5 years, depending on how one looks at 1973. Brown scored 14 total touchdowns in 1973 but his rushing average was 3.2 and the literature of the day was suggesting he was on the downside of his career already. Allen must have seen it as well as he brought in Duane Thomas in 1974 and then John Riggins in 1975 to be his ball carriers. Riggins worked out, Thomas? Not so much.

Chuck Foreman didn't get injured he, like Brown, just seemed to run out of gas. He was the Offensive Rookie of the Year in 1973 and then the Sporting News NFC Offensive Player of the Year in 1974 and his best season was neither of those two. In 1975 he scored 22 touchdowns and led the NFL in receptions with 73. Nine of his 22 touchdowns came off the arm of Fran Tarkenton and are still tied for the NFL record for touchdown catches by a running back in a single season.

Foreman was All-Pro again in 1976 and was also the UPI NFC Offensive Player of the Year making 1976 essentially his third straight season of OPOY quality. Foreman, along with Lydell Mitchell expanded the passing game in the NFL, though Ted Marchibroda may have pioneered using backs in this way in 1966, in the mid-1970s it was taken to a new level. Incidentally, Marchibroda was Mitchell's coach in Baltimore and Jerry Burns was the master-mind for Foreman's Vikings.

Regardless, from 1974-76 no one in the NFL scored more touchdowns than Foreman and they went to the Super Bowl three times in his first four seasons and from having seen them play quite a lot, there is no way they go to those games without Foreman. He was an impact player.

In 1986 William Andrews came back from a devastating knee injury and was simply not effective. He last was on an NFL field in the preseason of 1984 and even though he had the heart the body just would follow. Prior to the injury, he was a very dynamic running back. He was a tough, hard runner and was very effective as a receiver in an era when not all backs were effective in the passing game.

He was an All-Pro in 1983 and was on various Second-teams in 1980, 1981 and 1982. His per-16 game averages from 1980 through 1982 were 287 carries for 1333 yards, a 4.6-yard average, and seven touchdowns. He also (on a per-16 game basis) averaged 65 receptions for 646 yards (9.9 average) and three touchdown receptions. The per 16-game average is handy here due to the 1981 players strike.

His peak of four years or so matches up very well with all of these players on the outside looking in the Hall of fame and also fares well against some of the players in the Hall of Fame.

Like Priest Holmes, Billy Sims was on his way to a great season when a knee injury felled him in 1984. His yards per carry was up, he was on pace for perhaps 1400 yards and 60 catches. And then it was over. Sims was All-Pro in 1981 and in 1980 he wasn't but with players like Walter Payton and Earl Campbell in the league, it was hard to make All-Pro with just the two running back slots. Sims didn't play on great teams like Terrell Davis but his per-game stats measure with the best—

Campbell was another running back who just got worn out. From 1978though 1980 he was as good a back as the game had seen then, poof, from 1981 through the end of his career he was a good-to-average running back. He was a three-time MVP (1979 he was consensus, 1978 and 1980 he was the NEA MVP).  But, really, he had three great years and three decent years and two that were forgettable. But, the peak was so great he was a first-ballot Hall of Famer.

Leroy Kelly was a four-time All-Pro (1966-68 and 1971) and was a Second-team All-Pro in 1969. The 1969 and 1971 post-season honors are a result of no dominant backs in those seasons. Really, as is the pattern in this post, Kelly's greatness was his peak seasons of 1966-68. Those three seasons he averaged just under 1200 yards rushing, 14 rushing touchdowns, and 5.2 yards a carry, clearly the stuff of Hall of Famers. However, in the four following seasons (1969-72), he averaged 787 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 3.7 yards a carry. hardly the stuff of Hall of Famers.

 Like Leroy Kelly, the "other number 44", Floyd Little is someone with a short peak and some years that were, shall we say, "less than productive".

Little was All-Pro in 1969 and 1971 and won a rushing title in 1971. He played behind a line that had three players make one Pro Bowl (actually AFL All-Star game)—Larry Kaminski (1967), George Goeddeke (1969) and Mike Current (also 1969). So, Little got little help.

Still, Little led the NFL in rushing touchdowns from 1971-73 and was tied with Larry Brown in total touchdowns from 1971-73. But, once again, really we are discussing a three-year peak or four-five at best.

Gale Sayers is the gold standard for the short-career Hall of Famer. Many students of the game; researchers and writers have long referred to the "Gale Sayers Exception" when discussing any player whose career lacked longevity due to injury. Dwight Stephenson was one such player. Though he played just eight seasons he was a five-time First-team All-Pro and a five-time Pro Bowler and a five-time NFLPA AFC Offensive Lineman of the Year.

He was so far ahead of other centers that his short career didn't matter to the voters, though he was not a first-ballot HOFer. He had a wait a short time until the "Gale Sayers Exception" kicked in.

Taking a Closer Look at Recent Wide Receivers

LOOKING AHEAD
By John Turney

Credit: Jeff Lang

Recently a fine football website asked the question "If the best wide receiver since Rice can't get into the Hall of Fame on his first ballot, then who can?" The query followed a tome making the case that Randy Moss should be a first-ballot Hall of Famer.

We are not sure if Moss will be a first-ballot inductee or now, but if he is, great for him, if not, like with the Terrell Owens case it will not be a national tragedy.

We suspect that Owens will be voted into the Class of 2018 and Moss to the Class of 2019. In our view, not that it matters much, both are Hall of Famers but neither are close enough to Rice to share being a First-ballot inductee with him. Rice is just too far ahead of both of them in honors, stats and in championships, though Moss is a bit closer than Owens.
(Click to enlarge)

This chart shows the votes wide receivers have tallied in the AP Offensive Player of the Year Awards since 1972. Among receivers Rice dominates. Maybe until someone gets half or even a third as many there shouldn't be a First-ballot HOF receiver.

The following chart has post-1992 numbers for a couple of advanced stats. Targets and drops. And the percentages correlated to them.

What can be gleaned is that perhaps the next First-ballot WR is still active and his name may be Larry Fitzgerald. The thing of note is that he's still compiling numbers and if he keeps up productivity for a few more years he will rank high in the major numbers. Additionally, he and Hines Ward are considered the two of the top wide receiver blockers of this era and some may suggest THE top two.

Not only that, Fitzgerald has the best hands of this era, not only does film (video) study show that, the statistics do, too. He's only dropped 27 passes of 1880 targets (1.4%) and it's far above his contemporaries and it's miles ahead of Terrell Owens who is credited by Stats, LLC with 130 drops (7.0%) in his career.

So the answer to the openining question may likely be Larry Fitzgerald.

Here are the career stats of some selected WRs some already in the HOF, others likely and a few that may not make it but had impressive careers nonetheless.

In reference to Moss, he has several negatives of his own, which are somewhat similar to Owens. In 2011 Jerry Rice said:

In 2001 there was the "I play when I want to play":

Then there was the halftime outburst that got him traded and his later explanation. So, if Moss does have to wait a season expect the outcries and cutting criticism of the Hall of Fame committee and some of those critics will be armed with basic stats like "He was second in this, or third-all time in that" but they won't comment how far back Moss is in those same statistics. Like the Terrell Owens candidacy, the critics will overstate things and say "Moss is being kept out".

It is NOT about keeping anyone out. It's about deciding if Owens and Moss are First-ballot worthy and in totality, the numbers suggest not. Owens and Moss have half as many All-Pro selections and half as many Pro Bowl selections. Neither got much support for AP Offensive Player of the year while Rice got plenty. Neither has the rings Rice has, neither has the "black ink"—a term used for when a player leads the league in a major category.

So, perhaps this time around those who are astute in following the Hall of Fame process will look at ALL the numbers and not cherry-pick just the ones that make their case that Owens was and Moss is a first-ballot HOF-worthy. The totality of the numbers suggests they were not, though as we mentioned earlier in this post, Moss is closer than Owens since he didn't have the "drop problem" Owens did.

But, alas, we doubt it. If Moss is "snubbed" there will be the usual suspects making the usual arguments and attacking anyone who dares have a different opinion based on all the numbers.

BILLY HOWTON: Throw It and I'll Catch It

LOOKING BACK
By T.J. Troup

The Green Bay Packers lost their last seven games of 1951 as their ground attack struggled all season. The Packers did, however, set a new record for passes attempted in a season with 478. Bobby Thomason and Tobin Rote shared the quarterback position and both had some strong games pitching the pigskin.

Historically the NFL draft of 1952 has been discussed as one of the most talented ever. Fourteen men will be taken in the draft before Green Bay selects a tall, lean, and swift split end named Billy Howton. Five of those previous fourteen are in the Hall of Fame. Howton is not, yet his saga needs to be shared.

Howton's rookie season is one that ranks among the best ever by any receiver before the 1970 AFL-NFL merger. In the first nine games of the year he has caught at least one pass in every game, but the last three games of the season he runs routes and catches passes to the tune of 21 receptions for 485 yards, and 5 touchdowns.

This kind of production compares with the immortal Don Hutson! Billy receives first team All-Pro recognition. Expectations are high for 1953 as the Packers were in the thick of the Western Conference race till late in the 1952 season, but Howton has a chest injury that keeps him out of the lineup for the first four games. Though he plays well during the latter half of 1953 and contributes in 1954 the Packers struggle to win games.

Green Bay opens the 1955 season at home against a Detroit Lions team that has beaten them 11 straight times and outscored them 363 to 191. The hard-hitting affair against the three time western conference champion has come down to the 4th quarter with Detroit leading 17-13. Earlier in the game after a fine catch, Howten is hit hard and coughs up the ball. Middle linebacker Joe Schmidt of the Lions scoops up the ball and is pictured on the cover of my book "The Birth of Football's Modern 4-3 Defense: The Seven Seasons That Changed the NFL" returning the ball 17 yards.

Tobin Rote keys the final drive of the game with some timely completions, and a 28-yard dash up the middle. Time is running short when Rote throws to Howton on a stop route. Billy is running for the sideline but realizes he is going to be tackled in bounds and fumbles the ball on purpose out of bounds. This photo is captured in Mickey Herskowitz excellent book "The Golden Age of Pro Football".

The clock is now stopped with just 25 seconds left. Rote drops back and finds Gary Knafelc open on a quick post for 18 yards and the winning touchdown. Green Bay has a record of 1-2 as they take on the 1955 defending western conference champion Rams in Milwaukee. Howton has one of the greatest performances by a receiver ever in this game. During the first half, he snags 6 passes for 204 yards. Green Bay upsets the Rams 42-17. November the 4th the defending league champion Browns take on the Packers in Milwaukee. No team is as well prepared to take on an opponent as a Paul Brown team and film study details this aspect. Green Bay is knocking on the door to the end zone as left linebacker Chuck Noll "walks" off to align in front of Billy to disrupt his route, yet Howton's quickness gets him off the line. Howton splits the two Cleveland safeties and scores on a curl route for the only Packer touchdown in the game.

Green Bay travels to Wrigley Field to take on their long time rivals in navy blue & burnt orange. Late in the 4th quarter rookie Bart Starr is at quarterback and he lofts a beautiful pass up the right sideline over pro bowl left corner J.C. Caroline for 53 yards to Howton. Green Bay and the league manuals still have this incorrect as Starr is listed with a passing long of 36 for the year. Howton's excellent performance during the year brings him unanimous All-Pro recognition.

Green Bay has a new stadium for 1957 and early in the 4th quarter, the Packers have excellent field position on the Chicago forty-nine yard line. Babe Parilli fires to Billy for 41 yards to set up the game winning touchdown pass to Gary Knafelc. The Baltimore Colts are truly contenders for the Western Conference crown in 1957 and are at home against a Packer team that has now lost three straight. Late in the 4th quarter trailing 21-17 strong armed Babe Parilli comes off the bench and heaves a long pass up the right sideline as Billy has easily run by reserve left corner Henry Moore. The pass is on the money for 77 yards and the game winning score.

From this point on the Packers will stumble to the depths of their history as they go 2-16-1 for the remainder of 1957 and 1958. There are teams that bring out the best in a player, and for Howton, that team is the Rams. How many receivers historically have caught at least 47 passes for a minimum of 1,185 yards against an opponent the first ten times they face them?

Vince Lombardi needs help revitalizing the roster as he begins his tenure in Green Bay; thus on April 24, 1959, Howton is traded to Cleveland for Lew Carpenter and Bill Quinlan. Billy Howton played outstanding and consistent football for the Packers as he caught a pass all but three games during his time in Green Bay. A new chapter, but a very short one as Howton plays just one year for Paul Brown, yet it is the only winning team he plays on.

He is too talented to be let go in the expansion draft but is traded to Dallas on September 6th for a conditional draft pick. Howton is back in Texas where he played college football, but he is going to see many a player come and go as Tom Landry attempts to put a quality team on the field. Billy is not very productive for the most part in the '60 season, yet finishes strong with 12 catches for 162 yards and 2 scores over the last two games of the year. Dallas wins on opening day in 1961 and Howton is a key contributor in the first Cowboy victory with 6 catches for 138 yards. Later in the season against the defending league champion Eagles, he latches onto 11 passes as he torments the Philadelphia secondary with the variety of moves he has come to be known for. Though he still has some quickness, he has lost some of his swiftness—yet Billy can run every route.

Film study shows he can run an out route, the deep fade, the post/corner (Q), and the curl route well, yet he runs the slant to perfection. The last day of the 1962 season Dallas is again on the losing side; this time to the eastern conference champion Giants, but Billy is still the wily veteran as he catches 3 passes for 108 yards and 2 touchdowns. He has now caught 470 passes for 7,945 yards, and 58 touchdowns in his career, and is fast approaching breaking Don Hutson's records for catches and yardage.

The issue though going into 1963 is the Baltimore Colts have an excellent receiver named Raymond Berry who with 419 catches for 6,217 yards is just 30 years old and looks to have a few more seasons with Mr. John Unitas. Yes, Howton does break Hutson's records, but as most know Berry soon passes Howton. Billy has his moments in the final campaign of his career. November the 10th against San Francisco he catches 8 passes for 107 yards, and his last touchdown, and you guessed it the final TD comes on a slant pattern. Though he will likely never be in the Hall of Fame Billy Howton is one fine receiver that should never be forgotten.

Remembering Bill Walsh: Super Bowl XIX Game Plan Binder

LOOKING BACK

By Chris Willis, NFL Films

Front Cover of Bill Walsh's Super Bowl XIX Binder

  On this day (July 30, 2007) ten years ago the NFL world lost the “Genius," when Bill Walsh passed away at the age of 75. Several years ago when doing research for my book on the 1984 49ers I interviewed Walsh’s son Craig who allowed me to make a copy of his father’s game plan binder for Super Bowl XIX against the Miami Dolphins. A game in which Walsh claimed to have been his “masterpiece” of game plans.

With the nearly 135 pages of offensive (and special teams) game plans Walsh had at his fingertips the perfect plan to attack the Dolphins defense.

Bill Walsh Offensive Research Page for Super Bowl XIX

49ERS OFFENSIVE GAME PLAN

    The work week started with film study. The 49ers staff gave the players the Dolphins last eight regular season games (including the two losses by the Dolphins to the Chargers and Raiders) to help evaluate their opponent. The 49ers offensive coaches really focused on watching film of three Dolphins games to gain a better grasp on the Dolphins 3-4 defense.

AFC Championship vs Steelers

AFC Divisional vs Seahawks

Dec. 17, 1984 vs Cowboys

    Sitting in his corner office Walsh hand drew the offensive game plan. He put in nearly forty runs (27 basic runs, 6 run specials, 6 draws) as well as twelve goal line and short yardage plays. As for the passing game he drew up nearly 100 passes on the call sheet. In the end Walsh’s game plan binder would consist of 134 pages of plays and notes as well as nearly one hundred and fifty hand-drawn plays.



Bill Walsh's Run Plays for Super Bowl XIX, two pages

   Walsh definitely wanted to be balanced. Watching the game film of the Dolphins 3-4 defense he did not see a very fast, athletic unit. While looking closer he saw that the Dolphins linebackers were somewhat slow footed, especially in covering backs. He instantly knew that he would use Wendell Tyler, Roger Craig and Carl Monroe even more in the passing game. “Without a potent pass rush, Miami was forced to cover the receivers tightly. The Miami defense depended on locking their linebackers into man-to-man coverage on running backs. That had worked well for them during the season, but I doubted that they could cover our backs, particularly Roger Craig, coming out of the backfield,” wrote Bill Walsh in his 1990 biography. “We had one play in particular that was ideally suited to work against the defense. On ‘20 Bingo Cross’ both backs would release between guard and tackle just past the line of scrimmage and then cross.”

20 Bingo Cross play sheet Super Bowl XIX

     Along with “20 Bingo Cross” Walsh also installed “Halfback Sail” in the first 25 plays to take advantage of his running backs speed and quickness. “That was crucial. Again, our coaches deserved a lot of credit because they saw the weakness. It wasn’t necessarily the weakness in the players. It was just a weakness in their scheme and Bill took advantage of it,” said Keith Fahnhorst, 49ers offensive tackle, in a 2014 interview.  The 49ers first touchdown- to Carl Monroe- was on "Halfback Sail." “Well, that was the whole thing. Because even though they had great linebackers they didn’t have speed. We practiced on crossing routes the whole week. Bingo Cross. Roger would go one way. I would go the other way,” said Wendell Tyler, 49ers halfback, in a 2013 interview. “I think Bill felt all along that their linebackers couldn’t cover our running backs. Bill always made the running backs a big part of his teaching. You could just tell by the way he talked to them about what his thought was in terms of where the ball might go,” said Paul Hackett, 49ers quarterback-wide receiver coach, in a 2012 interview.



Bill Walsh's Pass Plays for Super Bowl XIX, four pages

    While watching the Dolphins linebackers he also saw that when they turned to run with the running backs out of the backfield they tended to turn their heads and put their backs to the quarterback. Walsh thought if there was a running lane he wanted, encouraged, Joe Montana to tuck and run. During the 1984 regular season Montana had only had 39 carries for 118 yards but in two playoff games he had 85 yards rushing. Walsh would use his legs in this game. “I declined to remark on it until just before the game, because I didn’t want to preoccupy Joe with this option and preferred to be as spontaneous and instinctive as possible,” wrote Walsh.

    Running backs catching the ball, Montana running when given the opportunity, and being balanced on offense. Walsh had his plan for Super Bowl XIX. The 49ers offense performed the game plan perfectly defeating the Dolphins 38-16, amassing a Super Bowl record 537 total yards.

Hard to believe that it has been ten years since Bill Walsh passed away. He is missed dearly.

All-Time NFL Team, Chosen in 1952

LOOKING BACK

By John Turney

In January 1952, at NFL Meetings the NFL coaches were surveyed to find out who the consensus All-time team would be.

Here are the results of the tally:

C—Mel Hein

G—Dan Fortmann

G—Len Younce

T—Turk Edwards

T—Joe Stydahar

E—Don Hutson

E—Bill Hewitt

QB—Sammy Baugh

HB—Steve Van Buren
HB—Red Grange

FB—Bronko Nagurski