WINNING THE CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP: First Touchdown Matters

By TJ Troup

Three of the four seeded teams won at home last week, and no doubt the steam rolling Tennessee Titans believe they can continue to win on the road and advance to the SB. A quick look at the team stats from last weekend's winners tell us the following: the winning teams recorded 20 sacks and 3 interceptions (the losers 6 and 1).

The four winning teams completed 58 passes for 786 yards, an average of 13.55 a completion, while the losers completed 104 passes for 1,202 yards (11.55 a completion). Two yards makes a difference, and if you don't believe that gain 7 yards on 3rd down and 8 instead of 9 yards and watch your punt team trot onto the field. Sacks, interceptions, and yards gained per completion will be a major part of the winning teams formula this Sunday—yet historically there is an aspect that is the MOST IMPORTANT KEY TO WINNING.

We have had 98 conference championship games since the merger in 1970 and the team that has scored the first touchdown has won 74 times! Excluding the 1979 Ram victory over the Bucs (all field goals for the winners in the shut-out victory) the percentage by conference is as follows: AFC 38 of 49 (77.6%) and NFC 36 of 48 (75%). From 1970 through 1989 in the NFC title game the team that scored the first touchdown won every time (Ram victory excluded).

Since 2002 though the NFC has seen the team that did not score the first touchdown win 9 of the 17. The first team to score a touchdown in the AFC title game since 2002 has won 14 of 17. Ask the four coaches if they would rather have a 7-0 or 7-3 lead? How about a scenario to tie the above all together. The defense intercepts, and on the initial offensive drive gains 14 yards on completions; and scores seven! The clock ticks on and the team that is behind not only gains yards on short completions, they are forced to use time-outs, and finally the pass rush takes down the quarterback.

A 4th quarter sack is one of the most valuable elements of victory. Doubt that and Coach George Allen and myself will come and haunt/visit you. Finally, some of you just might remember where you were on January 15th, 1967?

The first title game clash between the AFL & NFL was memorable for a myriad of reasons, and this former Anaheim Colonist High School football player was glued, and I mean GLUED to CBS to watch the game (which was played in sunlight in the afternoon in Los Angeles). St. Vince and his band of Fox River studs came away with the silver trophy and no one at that time could envision what the game would become over 50 years later. Enjoy the games on Sunday.

Luke Kuechly Hangs 'Em Up After Eight Great Seasons

LOOKING BACK
By John Turney

Credit:  Wikipedia

Luke Kuechly in an announcement through the Carolina Panthers stated he is retiring from the NFL. He's had a great run and recent concussions issues with head trauma one cannot blame him at all, his future health is paramount to him.

Here is a review of his career—
• 2013 Defensive Player of the Year

• 2012 Defensive Rookie of the Year
• Six-time All-Pro (Five consensus plus another Second-team selection)
• Seven-time Pro Bowler

Will undoubtedly be All-Decade for the 2010s but vote for the official team has not been done but he's made every All-Decade team we've seen so far.

Nick Webster's excellent work in stuffs (run or pass plays stopped for a loss) show that Keuchly, in eight years had 82, an average of 10.3per  season, second-most since reliable gamebooks exist. 

At 6-3 and excellent spead he proved excellent in stopping the run but also in coverages, especially in Tampa-2 when he had to cover tight ends through the 'hole' zone.

Here is how Kuechly's career number compared to other HOFers one would think even though he played just eight seasons he's done enough to get a Gold Jacket one day.

Accepting Warts

By John Turney

Everyone has favorites. As a kid mine was Willie Mays. And through him, I grew to love Mickey Mantle. Many years later I learned that Mickey drank too much and fooled around on his wife. He was a flawed individual.

Even later I learned that Willie Mays used amphetamines to increase his stamina in the long MLB seasons. As did Hank Aaron and the Mick, per ESPN "Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays, Hank Aaron and countless others have admitted they used amphetamines during their careers."

Mantle also hooked up with Dr. Feelgood (Max Jacobson). Author Richard A. Lertzman wrote that Dr. Feelgood treated JFK and many New York and Hollywood stars with speed. He also told a Coach to Coast audience that he treated Mantle with both steroids and amphetamines. (Jacobson was an early pioneer in the use of steriods according to Lertzman).

So, what to do? I live with it. They did what they did and they performed how they performed.

What is missing (by his supporters) in the Tom Flores discussion is that that he had a lot of positives and ALSO some negatives and those negatives do affect his candidacy for the Hall of Fame.

The top thing is he won two Super Bowls. Also, he was a pioneer as a Hispanic coach in a league that had a history of racial bias.

What does not matter (since he's a candidate as a coach, not a player of player-coach combo) is that he won a ring sitting on the bench for the Chiefs in 1969. It keeps getting brought up and is what I call a True Lie—It's accurate but is it 'true' to the point that he's a HOF coach?

As for the negatives, all the coaches outside the Hall looking in have them. This group is hard to separate:  Don Coryell, Tom Flores, Mike Holmgren, Buddy Parker, Dan Reeves, and Dick Vermeil.

You can throw in Mike Shanahan, George Seifert, and Tom Coughlin as well.

Bill Cowher and Jimmy Johnson both got on over the above coaches. My personal preference would have been to go from oldest to youngest or from 2 championships to 1. But the committee disagreed.

Flores fans on Twitter are hopping mad. And I get it. However, they must look at the picture in toto.

Here are coaching records vis Pro Football Reference. A "check" is a winning season. An "x" is a losting season. Seasons of .500 got no mark. Titles got a gold star.

Flores has two gold stars but also a lot of red Xs. Flores fans have to accept that. We all do for our heroes. His resume is not unblemished and that does hurt him. He's not head an shoulders above anyone but by the same token no one else is head and shoulders above him. This is a tightly packed group.

(click to enlarge)

So, when people go after Cowher or Johnson, remember whoever your guys are, whether it's Coryell or Flores or Seifert, you guy's record has its blemishes, some worse than the guys you are attacking. So a better response than saying "Cowher and/or Johnson don't belong" (they do) say that you don't like the order, maybe the older guy deserved it before a younger guy, or things like that rather than "such and such sucked". Understand?

Even all-time greats like the Say Hey Kid and the Mick had their flaws.

First Rate on Third Down Helps Packers Past Seahawks

By Eric Goska

Members of the media interview Ted Eisenreich,

the Packers Director of Facility Operations, early Sunday morning.

Green Bay’s all-time yardage generator on third-down passing in the postseason was at it again Sunday against the Seahawks. It was his mastery of that down that helped the Packers edge Seattle 28-23 in a divisional playoff game at Lambeau Field.

The Green and Gold converted 9-of-14 third-downs (64.3 percent). Included in that total was a kneel-down on the game’s final play, a situation in which the team wanted to run out the clock, not earn a first down.

For Green Bay, it was the seventh time in 57 playoff games that the team converted at a rate of 60 percent or better. The club is 7-0 in those games.

In addition, the Packers scored three of their four touchdowns on third down. Aaron Jones plowed in for two on the ground and Davante Adams scored once through the air.

Only once before in the playoffs – a 28-7 win over the Rams in 1967 – had the team accounted for that many six-pointers on third down.

Workers pour salt onto the walkways at Lambeau Field.

Aaron Rodgers was particularly effective at procuring fresh sets of downs. He overcame six third downs with passes and erased another with a 2-yard quarterback sneak late in the second quarter.

Two of his biggest completions, of course, occurred on the game’s final drive. He hit Adams for 32 then tossed to Jimmy Graham for nine, the latter allowing Rodgers to kneel three times to run out the clock.

Rodgers played well overall. He completed 16 of 27 passes for 243 yards and two touchdowns. He compiled a passer rating of 113.7.

As the down increased, so, too, did his passer rating.

On first down, he clocked in at 64.96 (11-5-66-0-0). On second down, he settled in at 122.62 (7-4-56-1-0).

On third down, Rodgers flirted with ‘perfection.’ There, the 15-year veteran completed 7 of 9 passes for 121 yards and a touchdown for a rating of 155.79.

Graham was Rodgers’ weapon of choice on third down. The big tight end caught three passes for 49 yards and three first downs.

Adams hauled in two for 52. His first was a 20-yarder that put Green Bay up 7-0.

Geronimo Allison and Jamaal Williams caught the other third-down throws. Williams was the only one to fail to earn a first down as he came up three yards short on third-and-12 late in the first quarter.

This isn’t the first time Rodgers has excelled in this manner in the postseason. He has put up some third-down numbers that are unmatched in team annals.

Rodgers has thrown for 1,279 third-down yards. That’s the team record ahead of Brett Favre’s 1,126.

The quarterback from California has passed for more than 100 third-down yards in six different games. That’s twice as many times as all other Packers passers combined (Favre 2; Bart Starr 1).

Furthermore, Rodgers has produced 73 first downs on 154 third-down pass attempts. That ties the club mark set by Favre in 189 attempts.

Nine years ago in Atlanta, Rodgers unleashed perhaps his finest third-down postseason performance. He connected on 10 of 10 throws for 151 yards. His play was one reason Green Bay (seeded 6th) knocked off the top-seeded Falcons 48-21.

Third down is an area in which the Packers must improve if they are to beat San Francisco in the NFC championship game. Green Bay converted just one of 15 attempts in the November meeting between the teams. Rodgers was 3 of 9 for 17 yards without a first down.

Excelling on third down to the extent they did against Seattle will be darn near impossible for the Packers at Levi’s Stadium. The 49ers allowed the second fewest third-down conversions (64) during the regular season behind the Patriots (47), and their opponents converted at a rate of 33.3 percent, tied with Dallas for second place behind, once again, the Patriots, at 24.1 percent.

Extra point

Jimmy Graham became the second tight end in team history to catch three third-down passes in one playoff game. Jermichael Finley was the first when he snagged three for 71 yards against the Cardinals in 2010.

Chains Smoking

Postseason games in which the Packers’ third-down conversion rate was 60 percent or better.

3rd Down       Pct.              Date               Opponent             Result

    11-15         73.33      Jan. 15, 1967            Chiefs          GB won, 35-10

     7-10          70.00      Jan. 12, 2008         Seahawks       GB won, 42-20

     8-12          66.67      Jan. 15, 2011           Falcons         GB won, 48-21

     9-14          64.29      Jan. 11, 2015         Cowboys        GB won, 26-21

     9-14          64.29      Jan. 12, 2020         Seahawks       GB won, 28-23

     8-13          61.54       Jan. 9, 2011             Eagles          GB won, 21-16

     6-10          60.00       Jan. 8, 1983           Cardinals        GB won, 41-16

Green Bay passers who threw for 100 or more yards on third down in a playoff game.

  A-C-Yds-TD-HI           Player                  Date            Opponent

   10-10-151-0-0       Aaron Rodgers     Jan. 15, 2011        Falcons

    11-6-138-1-0        Aaron Rodgers     Feb. 2, 2011        Steelers

    10-8-137-2-0        Aaron Rodgers     Jan. 11, 2015      Cowboys

     9-7-121-1-0         Aaron Rodgers     Jan. 12, 2020      Seahawks

    12-8-113-1-0           Brett Favre        Jan. 16, 1994      Cowboys

    13-7-110-1-1           Brett Favre         Jan. 4, 2003         Falcons

     9-6-109-0-1         Aaron Rodgers     Jan. 15, 2017      Cowboys

    10-8-108-1-0            Bart Starr          Jan. 1, 1967       Cowboys

     8-5-104-1-0         Aaron Rodgers     Jan. 10, 2010       Cardinals

The 2019 Consensus All-Pro Team

By John Turney

As you may know, we reject the "AP-only" school of thought for NFL Awards. We prefer that "Consensus All-Pro" is a better measure, i.e., those who make the majority of the major All-Pro teams.

So, who are the "major" All-Pro teams? We use the ones in the 2011 NFL/NFLPA Collective Bargaining Agreement. Those are the AP, PFWA, and Sporting News. The AP and PFWA are polls of writers while Sporting News is, this year, a poll of the NFL's head coaches.

Here are the three major teams.

DeAndre Hopkins makes two of the three to edge Julio Jones. Michael Thomas is unanimous as is  Quenton Nelson, Jason Kelce, Lamar Jackson, Christian McCaffrey.

George Kittle, Ronnie Stanley, and Ryan Ramczyk are consensus choices.

The special teams picks are all unanimous.

Defensively both corners and safeties are unanimous and only the AP has a fifth defensive back and it was a three-way tie.  The defensive interior players are also unanimous as is Bobby Wagner as a MLB/LBer.

Cameron Jordan is a consensus pick (the AP doesn't pick defensive ends, just 'edge' players) making both the PFWA and SN squads. Danielle Hunter made the PFWA team and Joey Bosa made the SN team. So, we think tying those two makes sense and giving TJ Watt unanimous status for being an Edge in the AP poll and as a rushbacker (OLB) in the other two.

Chandler Jones was All-Pro on PFWA and SN and Second-team on the AP team.

We consider (as does the Hall of Fame) all the players from each of these three All-Pro teams as legitimate First-team All-Pro, but the chart at the top represents the consensus picks which is a tick above First-team All-Pro—the are Consensus All-Pros.

Derrick Henry IS Bronko Nagurski

PERSPECTIVE
By John Turney

In the NFL's first playoff game in 1932 Bronko Nagurski threw a touchdown pass to Red Grange.

According to Wikipedia "In the fourth quarter, the Bears scored on a controversial touchdown: Carl Brumbaugh handed the ball off to Nagurski, who pulled up and threw to Red Grange in the end zone for the score. Rules at the time mandated that a forward pass had to be thrown from at least five yards behind the line of scrimmage. The Spartans argued Nagurski did not drop back five yards before passing to Grange, but the touchdown stood. "

Chicago Tribune

There were a lot of oddities in that game, one was the contest was played indoors on a short field. But those are stories for another day.

This is not the play, but it is a cool illustration from that game.

TOnight the Titans running back Derrick Henry threw a jump pass against the heavily favored Ravens.

Henry jumps and throws a touchdown to Corey Davis

It was nice to see. Though it's doubtful this was the first jump pass for a touchdown in a playoff game since 1932, it's possible. But they were common then and in the 1930s is equally possible someone did it. Regardless. Talk about fun. Well done Titans, well done.

A Swing and a Miss—Bill Cowher the First of Two Coaches of Centennial Class Chosen

OPINION
By John Turney

A few weeks ago we praised the Hall of Blue Ribbon Committee for their selections for the finalists for the 2002 Centennial Class for the Hall of Fame. They earned that praise we think.

Today, on the NFL Today, the CBS pre-game show Hall  President and Executive Director David Baker showed up and announced Bill Cowher is now a Hall of Famer.

Hmm.

The eight finalists were—
Don Coryell - 1973-77 St. Louis Cardinals, 1978-1986 San Diego Chargers
Bill Cowher - 1992-2006 Pittsburgh Steelers
Tom Flores - 1979-1987 Oakland/Los Angeles Raiders, 1992-94 Seattle Seahawks
Mike Holmgren - 1992-98 Green Bay Packers, 1999-2008 Seattle Seahawks
Jimmy Johnson - 1989-1993 Dallas Cowboys, 1996-99 Miami Dolphins
Buddy Parker - 1949 Chicago Cardinals, 1951-56 Detroit Lions, 1957-1964 Pittsburgh Steelers
Dan Reeves - 1981-1992 Denver Broncos, 1993-96 New York Giants, 1997-2003 Atlanta Falcons
Dick Vermeil - 1976-1982 Philadelphia Eagles, 1997-99 St. Louis Rams, 2001-05 Kansas City Chiefs

Flores, Johnson, and Parker have two titles.

Vermeil, Holmgren, and Cowher have one Super Bowl ring each. Coryell, Parker, Johnson, Flores, and Holmgren have some claim to "innovation" if you will.

It's hard to see how Cowher leapfrogged the "Two title" coaches and the "innovators". Cowher is not known for any kind of innovation or did anything to advance the game that we are aware of. Now he was a great coach and if someone asked if he's Hall of Fame worthy, we'd say "sure". It's the jump to the front of the line that is the "swing and miss", not questioning his great career.

Yes, there are other coaches with just one title (or none) in the Hall of Fame but in general, they brought more to the table than the one title. We are not saying Cowher is unworthy, just that he didn't have the credentials that some of the others on the list had. Coaches are judged by winning and others won more. Also, coaches are praised for breaking new ground, doing something different (think Coryell), creative or innovation. Cowher didn't.

It's just odd, that's all, that he'd leapfrog the ones who had been on Final 15s previously and were losing out to players (which is a tough thing for a coach to do—to beat out a player for one of five HOF slots each year).

The Centennial Class was to ease the logjams at certain positions, to feature players, administrators, and coaches that had been overlooked for some reason had been passed over and when the finalists list was released it seemed like that was going to be accomplished.

Now we are not so sure but will remain open-minded until we see the remaining 14 selections (one more coach, three contributors, and ten players). Based on today we think Jimmy Johnson may get the pregame show announcement and we'd bet money that Paul Tagliabue is one of the three contributors. We will see.