Tuesday, December 20, 2022
2022 Pro Bowl Predictions
Packers Close the Door on Rams at Lambeau Field
By Eric Goska
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| Rams fans could only watch as Green Bay held Los Angeles to minus-4 yards in the fourth quarter. (photos by Eric Goska) |
Two days after the Vikings staged the greatest
comeback in NFL history, the Green Bay Packers effectively deprived the Los
Angeles Rams of any opportunity to rally in the late going.
In doing so, the Green and Gold demonstrated how a good
offense can be an even better defense.
The Packers closed out the fourth quarter with ball control,
sending the Rams packing 24-12 Monday night at Lambeau Field. In securing a
second consecutive win, Green Bay (6-8) remains in the hunt for a wild-card
playoff spot.
Based on what transpired Saturday and Sunday in Week 15, no
lead is so large that it can’t be overcome. Down 17 in the third quarter, the
Jaguars surprised the Cowboys 40-34 with the aid of an extra period. Behind by
33, the Vikings stunned the Colts and the league in general by uncorking a 39-36
overtime win.
Green Bay, it can be safely assumed, didn’t want to lose in
such a manner. And so by being overly possessive down the stretch, it avoided heartbreak.
The Packers’ largest lead was 18 after Aaron Rodgers passed seven
yards to Aaron Jones late in the third quarter. That cushion lasted but two minutes,
nine seconds. Rams quarterback Baker Mayfield moved his team 70 yards and connected with tight
end Tyler Higbee from eight yards out to pull the Rams to 24-12 with 22 seconds
left in the period.
Plenty of time for a Los Angeles comeback. Plenty of time
for Green Bay to unravel.
How to prevent such foolishness? Hang on to the damn ball!
That Green Bay did, helping itself to 82 yards while chewing
up the final 8:51 with a game-closing drive for the ages. Rodgers and Co. ran
15 plays and picked up five first downs.
The advance ended when Rodgers kneeled three times inside
the Rams’ 5 rather than attempt to put up more points. That turn of events prompted play-by-play announcer Joe Buck to speculate that some might be
disappointed with the decision.
But in refusing to give the ball back to Los Angeles, Green
Bay ended the game on its terms. No stockpiling of yards by the opposition in
garbage time. No miracle comeback by a team that had failed to muster a lead in
the first three-and-a-half quarters.
In addition, that last drive served to put the finishing
touches on a quarter in which the Packers held the Rams to minus-4 yards. That’s
the fewest given up by the Green and Gold in the fourth quarter since the Lions
stumbled to minus-5 in the 1978 season opener.
The advance also prevented Los Angeles from adding to the 156
yards it had earned before Green Bay took to the field for the last time. That’s
the fewest produced in a regular-season game in six years under head coach Sean
McVay, another indication of how far the defending Super Bowl champs have
fallen.
Best of all, that long haul by Green Bay kept its
oft-maligned defense under wraps. Not having to rely on that unit to lock down
victory is a development Packers fans could surely embrace.
Closeout Deals
Since 1952, the six times the Packers have held the ball for more than seven-and-a-half minutes to close out the fourth quarter. TOP = time of possession.
|
TOP |
Plays-Yards |
Date |
Opponent |
Result |
|
8:51 |
15-82 |
Dec. 19, 2022 |
Rams |
GB won, 24-12 |
|
8:30 |
15-75 |
Dec. 13, 1959 |
49ers |
GB won, 36-14 |
|
8:30 |
14-60 |
Dec. 31, 2006 |
Bears |
GB won, 26-7 |
|
8:17 |
13-56 |
Oct. 17, 2004 |
Lions |
GB won, 38-10 |
|
7:52 |
12-43 |
Oct. 18, 2009 |
Lions |
GB won, 26-0 |
|
7:36 |
13-74 |
Sept. 15, 2013 |
Redskins |
GB won, 38-20 |
Note: GB defeated the 49ers 31-13 on Oct. 21, 1962 by utilizing an 11-play, 72-yard drive to close out the fourth quarter. Time of possession for that advance cannot be determined.
TUESDAY TIDBITS: "His Speed Was Deceptive, and He Had the Softest Hands, and Could Catch Anything"
| Jim Nance Credit: Merv Corning |
Monday, December 19, 2022
Predictions—Pro Football Hall of Fame Final 15
- Eric Allen, cornerback
- Jared Allen, defensive end
- Willie Anderson, offensive tackle
- Ronde Barber, cornerback
- Anquan Boldin, wide receiver
- Henry Ellard, wide receiver
- Jahri Evans, offensive guard
- London Fletcher, linebacker
- Dwight Freeney, defensive end
- James Harrison, linebacker
- Rodney Harrison, safety
- Devin Hester, kick returner/wide receiver
- Torry Holt, wide receiver
- Andre Johnson, wide receiver
- Albert Lewis, cornerback
- Robert Mathis, defensive end/linebacker
- Darrelle Revis, cornerback
- Steve Smith Sr., wide receiver
- Fred Taylor, running back
- Joe Thomas, offensive tackle
- Zach Thomas, linebacker
- Hines Ward, wide receiver
- DeMarcus Ware, linebacker/defensive end
- Ricky Watters, running back
- Reggie Wayne, wide receiver
- Vince Wilfork, defensive tackle
- Patrick Willis, linebacker
- Darren Woodson, safety
| Joe Thomas, A lock for Final 15 and Induction to HOF |
- Joe Thomas—No brainer for Final 15, 100% lock for induction.
- Darrelle Revis—Easy pick for Final 15. A 95% lock for induction.
- DeMarcus Ware—Snubbed a bit last year and that will be rectified this year.
- Zach Thomas—Could finally be his year for induction but like Johnson, the two first-ballot guys cloud the picture.
- Ronde Barber—Has great shot at being part of Class of 2023, having been in the top 10 last year.
- Andre Johnson—Has a shot at being part of Class of 2023 he was in the top 10 last year but with a couple of very likely first-ballot guys, he may have to wait.
- Albert Lewis—An emotional choice. Like Ellard, he is a last-chance guy who we think will advance to the Final 15 and top 10. But after that, it is a tough row to hoe.
- Devin Hester—Was in the top 10 last year, and should repeat this year.
- Patrick Willis—Will make the finalist list, and probably will make the top 10.
- Jared Allen—Has been on the Final 15 twice before and no reason to think he won't be on it once again.
- Willie Anderson—Big Willie made the finalist list last year and expect he will do the same in 2023.
- Dwight Freeney—A first-time eligible that will beat out teammate Robert Mathis.
- Torry Holt—2023 will be his 4th straight year in the Final 15.
- Reggie Wayne—Same as Holt. Will be the Final 15 for 4th consecutive year.
- Henry Ellard—Our guess as to a last-time eligible guy that finally gets his chance.
Sunday, December 18, 2022
Judgements XV
| Jared Goff |
Book it. The Detroit Lions are going to the playoffs for the
first time since 2016.
You heard me. The
Detroit Lions.
OK, so they’re 7-7, and, well, they’re the Detroit Lions.
But this just in: They’ve won six of their last seven, with the only blemish a
Thanksgiving Day loss to Buffalo. Plus, they have a cozy schedule with three
games left where they’ll be favored.
Put it all together, and you have the longest of long shots,
and what do you have? Uh-huh, the Lions in the playoffs. Yes, Virginia, there
is a Santa Claus.
“It can happen,” a jubilant coach Dan Campbell said after Detroit’s
latest triumph, a 20-17 come-from behind defeat of the New York Jets. “Just
line up and do your job.”
That’s precisely what’s going on with one of the best
feel-good stories of the season. After a 1-6 start where Campbell’s future was
a constant subject of debate, the Lions somehow discovered how the other half lives
– rattling off a series of unexpected victories, including defeats of Green
Bay, the Giants, Minnesota … and now the New York Jets.
I know, they don’t have the game’s best quarterback …
running back … secondary … you name it … and they seemed to be cashing in when
they sent tight end T. J. Hockenson to division rival Minnesota in a mid-season
trade. But look what’s happened: Seven times this season they scored a
franchise-record 30 or more points, including a 34-23 wake-up call vs.
Minnesota last weekend, and now they have a three-game winning streak in
December for the first time since 2014.
Better yet, they’re in position to gain a wild-card for the
playoffs, with games left vs. Carolina, Chicago and Green Bay – a collective 13-28.
Can they make it? Does it snow in Buffalo?
“They’ve got a real shot,” said NBC analyst and former head coach Jason Garrett.
SUNDAY SCHOOL: FIVE THINGS WE LEARNED
1. The biggest NFC threat to Philadelphia
isn’t Minnesota or Dallas. It’s San Francisco. That’s no surprise. The
49ers have a hermetically sealed defense. The Vikings and Dallas don’t.
Defenses are supposed to win championships right? The 49ers have one. Dallas
and Minnesota? Not so much.
2. Trevor Lawrence has entered the
stratosphere. There aren’t many quarterbacks playing better football today,
and you can look it up. Over his last six starts he has 14 TDs, one interception,
a 70.4 completion percentage, five passer ratings of 106.1 or better and four
wins. In other words, he’s become the quarterback the Jaguars thought they were
getting when they made him the first pick of the 2021 draft.
3. Say goodnight to New England. With
Sunday’s insane last-second-loss, the Patriots appear doomed. They could … no,
should … miss the playoffs for the second time in three years. Granted, they’re
still in the hunt and it’s not over ‘til it’s over. But be honest: Do you like
their chances after that meltdown in Las Vegas? Now look at what’s next: Games
vs. Cincinnati, Miami and Buffalo. Check, please,
4. The
Steelers won’t go quietly into the night. At 5-8 entering Sunday, they were
in danger of suffering their first losing season under Mike Tomlin … or their
first in his 16 seasons and the franchise’s first since 2003. Instead, they
pulled off a 24-16 defeat of Carolina to keep the streak alive … for now. Next up:
They take on the Raiders in Pittsburgh next weekend and how appropriate. It’s
the 50th anniversary of the Immaculate Reception.
5. The South may rise again … but not here and
not now. AFC South? NFC South? It doesn’t matter who wins either division.
They’re going nowhere in January. That’s what happens when you have divisions
with no winning teams and a combined record of 18-36-2 in one (AF South) and 21-31
in the other.
THIRD AND 20
1. The
best game of the day wasn’t in Houston, Jacksonville or even Las Vegas. It was
in Qatar. Now I know why 3.5 billion people watched the World Cup.
2. Bill
Belichick always tells players to “do your job” and not “to be a hero: Someone should’ve
reminded Jakobi Meyers.
3. Dear
Roger Goodell: Tell us again what constitutes defensive pass interference. Because
that was a textbook example on Washington’s final play Sunday night … and it
wasn’t called. “It’s clearly a foul,” said NBC
rules analyst Terry McAuley. “When it’s that obvious, it has to be called.” It
wasn’t. Anyone at 345 Park Ave. want to explain? Didn’t think so.
4. Three
weeks ago, Titans’ coach Mike Vrabel challenged his team to decide “how we want
to continue on down the season.” So they decided. They lost their next three to
Philadelphia, Jacksonville and the Chargers. Now they’re in danger of blowing a
division where nobody has a winning record.
5. This
is all you need to know about what Andy Reid has done in Kansas City: The
Chiefs’ seventh straight division title is the longest current streak in the
NFL, MLB, NHL and NBA,
6. Not
sure who gets the game ball in Cincinnati’s come-from-behind win. Tom Brady?
Leonard Fournette? Byron Leftwich? Todd Bowles? All qualify. Cincinnati
produced 24 second-half points off four Tampa Bay mistakes/turnovers.
7. Relax,
Broncos’ fans. It was Arizona.
8. Little
known stat about Philadelphia’s defense. The Eagles could make history this
season with four pass rushers with double-digit sacks. Haason Reddick (12) is
there. So is Javon Hargrave (10), with Josh Sweat (9.5) and Brandon Graham (8.5)
close. You already know about Jalen Hurts, Miles Sanders and A.J. Brown. Now
you know about the other side of the ball and why the Eagles are the most
complete team out there.
9. Say
what you want about Ryan Tannehill, but never question his courage. The guy
played on one leg for most of Sunday’s game and deserved better after a
game-tying score in the last minute.
10. Wait.
The Chargers won on a last-second field goal? I must be dreaming.
11. Someone
tell the Jets’ Robert Saleh he doesn’t have to save his timeouts for next week.
12. Memo
to Atlanta’s Desmond Ridder: Next time your job is to launch a Hail Mary on the
game’s last play, best not to run a quarterback keeper.
13. Justin
Fields has over 1,000 yards rushing this season, and that’s great. But he’s lost
nine of his last 10 starts and barely has more TD passes (15) than
interceptions (10). Sure, he’s fun to
watch scramble (especially with that pass protection), but a quarterback has to
win with his arm first.
14. Tennessee
may win the AFC South, but the Titans aren’t the best team in the division. Jacksonville
is.
15. Say
this about the Jets’ Zach Wilson: At least he learned a lesson from his last
start. That’s when he declined to take responsibility for poor play in a Nov.
20 loss to New England. This time he admitted, “I gotta play better” after the
latest Jets’ loss … and he’s right.
16. There’s
so much to like about Kansas City, starting with Patrick Mahomes. But I worry
about the Chiefs’ defense. Denver and Houston put up 52 on them the past two
weeks, and, OK, so Kansas City won both games. But it was Denver. And the Texans.
17. Dak
Prescott didn’t lose that game. Dallas coach Mike McCarthy did. With a
three-point lead and 1:20 left, he turned down an opportunity to run the ball …
and the clock … and tried to drop the hammer with a deep sideline pass. Result:
Incompletion. It spared Jacksonville its last TO, and the rest you know. “Not
running the ball, forcing the Jaguars to use their last timeout, is why we lost
the game,” tweeted Dez Bryant. Bingo.
18. Wait
a minute. NO CATCHES for Mike Evans in the second half Sunday? I can only
imagine what Bruce Arians thinks of the dumpster fire that is today’s Tampa Bay
Bucs.
19. Welcome
back, J.J. Watt. Once the league’s Defensive Player of the Year, Watt turned
back the clock for one afternoon with three sacks, three quarterback hits, three
tackles for losses, one pass defensed and one forced fumble.
20. One
more question for the commissioner: The more I watch this league the less I understand
the definition of a catch. Case in point: Keelan Cole’s game-tying TD Sunday. It
was ruled a reception because, as the league’s senior VP of officiating Walt
Anderson said, “it was not clear and obvious that the foot was on the white
(sideline).” We must have been watching different replays. Mine made it clear
and obvious that it was. Can you help?
SUNDAY’S GOLD JACKET STATS
n
The Giants’ 20-12 defeat of Washington snapped
an 11-game losing streak in prime time games.
n
The Vikings, Jaguars and Bengals all won after
trailing by 187 points. According to ESPN
Stats & Info, this was the first week in NFL history where three teams came
back to win after trailing by 17.
n
Tom Brady’s four turnovers tied his career high
for one game … and he committed all four on consecutive drives.
n
Jacksonville’s victory ended a 20-game losing streak
to the NFC.
n
Entering this season, Jacksonville was 1-112
when trailing by 17. This season the Jags are 2-2.
n
Justin Herbert is the first player in NFL
history to throw for 4,000 yards in each of his first three years.
SUNDAY’S GOLD JACKET QUOTES
n
“I was trying to do too much. Trying to be a
hero, I guess.” – New England wide
receiver Jakobi Meyers.
n
“Obviously. we’ve got to do a better job of
playing situational football and not make critical mistakes during the game.” –
New England coach Bill Belichick.
n
“We’re all devastated.” -- N.Y Jets’ cornerback D.J. Reed.
n
“We’re never out of it. We’ve been in these
situations before, and we always come back and make it a game.” – Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow.
n
“I’ve seen enough this year & #Daniel Jones
has exceeded expectations – IMO he will absolutely be the @Giants #QB next
year.” – Former Giants’ QB Phil Simms on
Twitter.
AP Defensive Player of the Year Perspective Using EPA and WPA as a Guide
Aaron Donald’s lack of dominance has contributed to a wide-open AP Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY) contest for 2022. We’ll leave it to later whether Donald is showing signs of age and falling off – but for the first time in years, he’s not in the DPOY conversation.
DPOY is always difficult because we’re comparing players with very difficult skill sets. So and so has more sacks, so and so has more stuffs, more passes defensed, more picks, etc., and that can be useful. But another way to view this is through EPA and WPA.
For the non-statheads, EPA is expected points added and WPA is win probability added. On any given play there is an expected number of points to be scored before the play and after the play, EPA measures the difference.
That said, let’s look at this year's DPOY game through the EPA/WPA lens.
Many will be surprised to know that based on EPA and WPA Maxx Crosby is the most impactful defense of the year on both fronts.
Thursday, December 15, 2022
Ranking the Top Seasons By 49er Edge Rushers
- Fred Dean—1981
- Charles Haley—1990
- Nick Bosa—2022
- Tommy Hart—1976
- Nick Bosa—2021
- Aldon Smith—2012
- Cedrick Hardman—1971
- Clay Matthews Sr.—1954
- Fred Dean—1983
- Tommy Hart—1972
- Charles Haley—1988
- Cedrick Hardman—1975
- Cedrick Hardman—1976
- Chris Doleman—1997
- Charles Haley—1989
- Tim Harris—1992
- Aldon Smith—2011
- Charles Haley—1986
- Dwaine Board—1983
- Andre Carter—2002
- Chris Doleman—1998
- Stan Hindman—1967
- Clark Miller—1966
- Jack Brumfield—1954
- Charley Powell—1952
- Charlie Krueger—1960

