Tuesday, December 20, 2022

2022 Pro Bowl Predictions

 By John Turney 
Tomorrow the NFL will announce the annual NFC and AFC Pro Bowl teams. Thank goodness there will be no game this year. But the honor of being voted among the best will remain and there will be a flag football game in Las Vegas coached by Peyton (AFC) and Eli (NFC) Manning among other things to replace the actual useless game. 

Before they are announced here are our best guesses based on the kind of years players are having and trying to divine how players and coaches voted and then factoring in the fan voting and what teams have the strongest support for their own players.

Here goes—

AFC
Offense
RB—Nick Chubb, Cle;  Derrick Henry, Ten; Josh Jacobs, LV
FB—Patrick Ricard, Bal
TE—Travis Kelce, KC; Mark Andrews, Bal
Defense
OLB—Matt Judon, NE; Matt Milano, Buf; Jaelan Phillips, Mia
ILB—Tremaine Edmunds, Buf; Nick Bolton, KC
SS—Derwin James, LAC
Special Teams
Punter—Tommy Townsend, KC
Place Kicker—Justin Tucker, Bal
Ret—Marcus Jones, NE
Special teams—Brenden Schooler, NE
Long snapper—Thomas Hennessy, NYJ
NFC
Offense
QB—Jalen Hurts, Phi; Geno Smith, Sea; Aaron Rodgers, GB
RB—Saquan Barkley, NYG; Christian McCaffrey, Car-SF;  Dalvin Cook, Min
FB—Kyle Juszczyk, SF
TE—George Kittle, SF, T.J. Hockenson, Det-Min
C—Jason Kelce, Phi; Frank Ragnow, Det
Defense
DE—Nick Bosa, SF; Brian Burns, Car; Josh Sweat, Phi
LB—Fred Warner, SF; Bobby Wagner, LAR
Special teams
Punter— Tress Way, Was
Place Kicker—Jason Myers, Sea
Ret—Kene Nwangwu, Min
Special teams—George Odum, SF
Long snapper—Andrew DePaola, Min

The AFC punter could be Ryan Stonehouse, he is the leading vote-getter in the AFC but his net punting average is lower than Townsend's.

The thrid NFC quartertback was also hard. It seems that only two quarterbacks in the NFC are having truly Pro Bowl-worthy seasons—Hurts and Smith. But there have to be three chosen but who will be the third? Rodgers? Brady? Cousins? Hard to know but we went with Rodgers as maybe having a slightly better season than Brady. 

Cousins is winning and some people don't think QB Wins is a stat and it's not, it's a record but that may push him to the Pro Bowl team ahead of Rodgers and maybe Brady. None of them are killing it in the passing department.

The third NFC tackle was difficult. Wirfs has missed some time and Andrew Thomas and Christian Darrisaw are worthy but the only question is can either one get enough support to supplant Wirfs. It would seem that with two guys that are coming out they might take votes from each other and since Wirfs is more known and was having an excellent season before the injury that he would be the favorite. 

Joe Thuney of the Chiefs could be one of the three AFC guards. We just had to pick and see what happens in some cases. Alec Ingold would be the second choice to Ricard at AFC fullback. 

We'll see tomorrow if we get anywhere close.

Packers Close the Door on Rams at Lambeau Field

 By Eric Goska

Rams fans could only watch as
Green Bay held Los Angeles to minus-4 yards in the fourth quarter.
(photos by Eric Goska)

Two days after the Vikings staged the greatest comeback in NFL history, the Green Bay Packers effectively deprived the Los Angeles Rams of any opportunity to rally in the late going.

In doing so, the Green and Gold demonstrated how a good offense can be an even better defense.

The Packers closed out the fourth quarter with ball control, sending the Rams packing 24-12 Monday night at Lambeau Field. In securing a second consecutive win, Green Bay (6-8) remains in the hunt for a wild-card playoff spot.

Based on what transpired Saturday and Sunday in Week 15, no lead is so large that it can’t be overcome. Down 17 in the third quarter, the Jaguars surprised the Cowboys 40-34 with the aid of an extra period. Behind by 33, the Vikings stunned the Colts and the league in general by uncorking a 39-36 overtime win.

Green Bay, it can be safely assumed, didn’t want to lose in such a manner. And so by being overly possessive down the stretch, it avoided heartbreak.

The Packers’ largest lead was 18 after Aaron Rodgers passed seven yards to Aaron Jones late in the third quarter. That cushion lasted but two minutes, nine seconds. Rams quarterback Baker Mayfield moved his team 70 yards and connected with tight end Tyler Higbee from eight yards out to pull the Rams to 24-12 with 22 seconds left in the period.

Plenty of time for a Los Angeles comeback. Plenty of time for Green Bay to unravel.

Two plays early in the fourth quarter suggested the Packers could cave. After intercepting Mayfield on third down, Rasul Douglas tried an ill-advised lateral that cost his team 12 yards and very nearly the ball. A minute later, Jones, the game’s leading rusher with 90 yards, surrendered the pigskin to Jalen Ramsey after getting frisked by the Rams’ safety.

How to prevent such foolishness? Hang on to the damn ball!

That Green Bay did, helping itself to 82 yards while chewing up the final 8:51 with a game-closing drive for the ages. Rodgers and Co. ran 15 plays and picked up five first downs.

The advance ended when Rodgers kneeled three times inside the Rams’ 5 rather than attempt to put up more points. That turn of events prompted play-by-play announcer Joe Buck to speculate that some might be disappointed with the decision.

But in refusing to give the ball back to Los Angeles, Green Bay ended the game on its terms. No stockpiling of yards by the opposition in garbage time. No miracle comeback by a team that had failed to muster a lead in the first three-and-a-half quarters.

In addition, that last drive served to put the finishing touches on a quarter in which the Packers held the Rams to minus-4 yards. That’s the fewest given up by the Green and Gold in the fourth quarter since the Lions stumbled to minus-5 in the 1978 season opener.

The advance also prevented Los Angeles from adding to the 156 yards it had earned before Green Bay took to the field for the last time. That’s the fewest produced in a regular-season game in six years under head coach Sean McVay, another indication of how far the defending Super Bowl champs have fallen.

Best of all, that long haul by Green Bay kept its oft-maligned defense under wraps. Not having to rely on that unit to lock down victory is a development Packers fans could surely embrace.

Closeout Deals

Since 1952, the six times the Packers have held the ball for more than seven-and-a-half minutes to close out the fourth quarter. TOP = time of possession.

TOP

Plays-Yards

Date

Opponent

Result

8:51

15-82

Dec. 19, 2022

Rams

GB won, 24-12

8:30

15-75

Dec. 13, 1959

49ers

GB won, 36-14

8:30

14-60

Dec. 31, 2006

Bears

GB won, 26-7

8:17

13-56

Oct. 17, 2004

Lions

GB won, 38-10

7:52

12-43

Oct. 18, 2009

Lions

GB won, 26-0

7:36

13-74

Sept. 15, 2013

Redskins

GB won, 38-20

Note: GB defeated the 49ers 31-13 on Oct. 21, 1962 by utilizing an 11-play, 72-yard drive to close out the fourth quarter. Time of possession for that advance cannot be determined.

TUESDAY TIDBITS: "His Speed Was Deceptive, and He Had the Softest Hands, and Could Catch Anything"

By TJ Troup 
Joe Namath
Once upon a time both the NFL and AFL would treat fans to a Saturday afternoon game late in the season. Relished watching those games since many times had not seen either team play all year (especially if they were eastern conference teams), since living in Chicago only saw my Bears on the road. 
So, let's journey back to Saturday, December 17th, 1966, and head to Shea Stadium. The Buffalo Bills are two-time defending league champions, but their loss to Boston the week before has positioned the Patriots to win the division if they can beat a Jets team that has won only once in the past eight weeks. 

The Bills were considered the toughest team to run against in this era and had allowed only 1007 yards rushing in thirteen games. Boston though ranked ahead of Buffalo as they had allowed only 894 yards rushing! 
Jim Nance
Credit: Merv Corning
The Patriot offense is powered...literally by fullback Jim Nance. A blockbuster inside runner who had surprising speed once loose in the secondary he had gained 1,188 yards on 237 carries (5.0) in the ten games the Patriots either won or tied. 

Can NYJ stop Nance, and can their offense find a way to move the ball on the ground to go with the Namath-led passing attack? 

The Jets defense has gotten stronger/better over the course of each of the last three years, but there is a major line-up change for this contest. Johnny Sample will not be in the line-up at the left corner and is replaced by the usual starting right corner Billy Baird. Starting at right corner will be Cornell Gordon in his very first start. 

Hard-hitting Dainard Paulson is now a reserve in his final season, yet Abruzzesse and Hudson are both strong tacklers at the safety position. Coach Walt Michaels has his defense ready, and after three quarters Nance has gained only 42 yards on 12 carries. 

The big fullback pounded out a 17-yard run on his final carry to set up a late Boston score, but by that time it was far too late. Joe Namath in his second season demonstrated he could make every throw needed to move the ball and win, but he also demonstrated he could force passes into the teeth of a defense and then head to the bench knowing he had just thrown another interception. Not today though, as Joe Willie completed 7 of 10 in the first half for 109 yards. He completed passes to Snell, Lammons, and Maynard (he scored on a 20-yard reception in the first quarter). 

In the second half Namath again completed 7 passes, but for 178 yards, and in a masterful job of reading coverage zipped a pass to George Sauer on a post pattern for 77 and a touchdown. Maynard continued to get open (3 for 72, and another score). Early in the season, the Jets looked like they would give Buffalo a run for the division title as they started out 4-0-1, and in those games, the improving well-coached offensive line allowed just one sack. During the disappointing stretch, the o-line continued to excel as they allowed only eight sacks. 

Coach Chuck Knox had schooled his boys in how to pass block, and they also got help from both Boozer and Snell. Watching film of the Patriot game linebacker Jim Fraser of Boston attempts to blitz and he is stonewalled by Snell. Impressive! Boozer and Snell gain 241 yards rushing in the game on 43 carries as the New York offense moves the chains (26 first downs). This is the second time in Jet history that teammates have both gained over 100 yards rushing in a game. 

Boston led early when Jim Colclough got behind Baird deep in the end zone from the eighteen-yard line. Undaunted Baird battled the Boston receivers all afternoon when challenged he intercepted Parilli twice. Namath did not throw an interception, the Jets did not lose a fumble, and the o-line kept the Boston bully boys from sacking Joe Willie . . . gee you think the Jets might win the game? You bet, 38-28. 

You can imagine the joy in Buffalo, and the next day the Bills beat Denver to become the only team in AFL history to go to the playoffs for four consecutive years. We have all seen quarterbacks come off the bench late in their careers as the relief pitcher to save the team, and on the last day of the regular season in 1988, Don Strock is starting for the Browns in a must-win situation. 

They trail the Oilers in the standings, and that is who Cleveland is playing at home on this snowy December 18th Sunday. Modell had stated that coach Schottenheimer must get his team to the Super Bowl in '88 or seek new employment, but Kozar's injury put the Browns offense in a difficult situation. Difficult but not impossible for a savvy veteran like Strock, who was playing in the final regular season game of his career. 

Strock misfired early and rangy Domingo Bryant took the errant pass to the house (Houston already led 3-0). Down 10-0 Strock just kept firing away and completed 26 of 42 for an impressive 326 yards. Slaughter and Langhorne latched onto 12 passes for 204 yards, and though down 23-7 in the third quarter the Browns scored the final 21 points of the game to earn a playoff berth. Their opponent for the wild-card game the next weekend you ask? Why none other than these same Oilers. 

There has been an evolution in offensive football during the last few years; bet you knew that? The passing game IS the key element in the game today. We all see wide receivers put up some very impressive stats, and some of those receivers are rookies. The Houston Oilers are their very first campaign in 1960 have two rookie receivers. 

Charlie Hennigan is a personal favorite of mine, and most folks at least know who he is, but the saga today will end with the story of the other rookie. Bill Groman played small college football at Heidelberg (can relate to small college football players) and left the teaching profession to try and make the Oiler team. His position coach is the legendary Mac Speedie, and the quarterback for Houston is hard-bitten savvy George Blanda. 
Bill Groman
On opening day in the victory over the Raiders, Charlie Hennigan starts at flanker but is injured during the game, and his back-up Bill Groman comes off the bench and responds with 6 catches for 115 yards and a 32-yard touchdown. The Oilers split their next two games and Groman learning on the job nabs 5 passes for 90 yards. 

Beginning on October 9th against the New York Titans Groman is about to explode like few rookie receivers ever have. Each week he demonstrates the ability to get open. He masters every route and latches onto every ball thrown his way. 

Though 5' 11" he has very long fingers and his athleticism and dedication have given Blanda the best weapon in the AFL. 

Can you give us examples? Well, hell yes I can. From October 9th through October 23rd he catches 21 passes for 378 yards . . . all Oiler victories. He misses the Buffalo game, but when he returns he explodes against Denver on a muddy field. 

Watching the film of him fake and sprinting past the Bronco secondary on his 75-yard touchdown is eye-catching. His ex-teammate George Shirkey gives us the title to this narrative, and Shirkey's quote is right on the money. 

Though he caught 7 passes in the loss to the Chargers, he gained only 88 yards. The next two weeks Bill Groman caught 12 passes for 353 yards, no that is not a misprint—353 yards! He finishes the season with 72 receptions for 1,473 yards, but the breakdown of the games that Houston won and lost is what is key here. 

During the 10 victories, the "Heidelberg Flash" caught 57 passes for 1,230 yards and 11 touchdowns! The Oilers defeated the Patriots on December 18th as Groman caught 7 passes for 150 yards. 

How many rookie receivers in 2023 will be able to surpass those stats in their teams' victories? Having watched film of both Harlon Hill and Del Shofner breaking wide open behind defensive backs by at least 15 yards is breathtaking. Groman also exploded past defenders like they did before him, and he caps off his rookie season as a champion. 

Bill has a strong second year in 1961, and because he was such a threat teams rolled coverage toward him. Charlie Hennigan exploited the opposition in '61 with one of the greatest seasons ever by a receiver. Leg injuries curtailed Groman's career, yet his rookie season still stands out as one of the best ever.

Monday, December 19, 2022

Predictions—Pro Football Hall of Fame Final 15

 By John Turney 
Next month the Pro Football Hall of Fame will announce the list of 15 players who will be discussed and voted on for the Class of 2023 . . . the Final 15. Last month the list of 28 semi-finalists was released. 

They were—
  • Eric Allen, cornerback
  • Jared Allen, defensive end
  • Willie Anderson, offensive tackle
  • Ronde Barber, cornerback
  • Anquan Boldin, wide receiver
  • Henry Ellard, wide receiver
  • Jahri Evans, offensive guard
  • London Fletcher, linebacker
  • Dwight Freeney, defensive end
  • James Harrison, linebacker
  • Rodney Harrison, safety
  • Devin Hester, kick returner/wide receiver
  • Torry Holt, wide receiver
  • Andre Johnson, wide receiver
  • Albert Lewis, cornerback
  • Robert Mathis, defensive end/linebacker
  • Darrelle Revis, cornerback
  • Steve Smith Sr., wide receiver
  • Fred Taylor, running back
  • Joe Thomas, offensive tackle
  • Zach Thomas, linebacker
  • Hines Ward, wide receiver
  • DeMarcus Ware, linebacker/defensive end
  • Ricky Watters, running back
  • Reggie Wayne, wide receiver
  • Vince Wilfork, defensive tackle
  • Patrick Willis, linebacker
  • Darren Woodson, safety
Now, who with the Final 15 be? Hard to tell but we will take a stab basing it on last year's final 15 and the obvious players who are first-time eligibles and who we think will be the ones who will move up in the queue who may have been waiting a while.
Joe Thomas, A lock for Final 15 and Induction to HOF
Here are the guesses ranking them on how far they will go—
  • Joe Thomas—No brainer for Final 15, 100% lock for induction.
  • Darrelle Revis—Easy pick for Final 15. A 95% lock for induction. 
  • DeMarcus Ware—Snubbed a bit last year and that will be rectified this year. 
  • Zach Thomas—Could finally be his year for induction but like Johnson, the two first-ballot guys cloud the picture.
  • Ronde Barber—Has great shot at being part of Class of 2023, having been in the top 10 last year.
  • Andre Johnson—Has a shot at being part of Class of 2023 he was in the top 10 last year but with a couple of very likely first-ballot guys, he may have to wait.
  • Albert Lewis—An emotional choice. Like Ellard, he is a last-chance guy who we think will advance to the Final 15 and top 10. But after that, it is a tough row to hoe. 
  • Devin Hester—Was in the top 10 last year, and should repeat this year.
  • Patrick Willis—Will make the finalist list, and probably will make the top 10.
  • Jared Allen—Has been on the Final 15 twice before and no reason to think he won't be on it once again.
  • Willie Anderson—Big Willie made the finalist list last year and expect he will do the same in 2023.
  • Dwight Freeney—A first-time eligible that will beat out teammate Robert Mathis.
  • Torry Holt—2023 will be his 4th straight year in the Final 15.
  • Reggie Wayne—Same as Holt. Will be the Final 15 for 4th consecutive year.
  • Henry Ellard—Our guess as to a last-time eligible guy that finally gets his chance.
Best of the remaining 13
Ranking the ones who won't make the Final 15—

Sunday, December 18, 2022

Judgements XV

 By Clark Judge 
Jared Goff
Motown is Gotown.

Book it. The Detroit Lions are going to the playoffs for the first time since 2016.

You heard me. The Detroit Lions.

OK, so they’re 7-7, and, well, they’re the Detroit Lions. But this just in: They’ve won six of their last seven, with the only blemish a Thanksgiving Day loss to Buffalo. Plus, they have a cozy schedule with three games left where they’ll be favored.

Put it all together, and you have the longest of long shots, and what do you have? Uh-huh, the Lions in the playoffs. Yes, Virginia, there is a Santa Claus.

“It can happen,” a jubilant coach Dan Campbell said after Detroit’s latest triumph, a 20-17 come-from behind defeat of the New York Jets. “Just line up and do your job.”

That’s precisely what’s going on with one of the best feel-good stories of the season. After a 1-6 start where Campbell’s future was a constant subject of debate, the Lions somehow discovered how the other half lives – rattling off a series of unexpected victories, including defeats of Green Bay, the Giants, Minnesota … and now the New York Jets.

I know, they don’t have the game’s best quarterback … running back … secondary … you name it … and they seemed to be cashing in when they sent tight end T. J. Hockenson to division rival Minnesota in a mid-season trade. But look what’s happened: Seven times this season they scored a franchise-record 30 or more points, including a 34-23 wake-up call vs. Minnesota last weekend, and now they have a three-game winning streak in December for the first time since 2014.

Better yet, they’re in position to gain a wild-card for the playoffs, with games left vs. Carolina, Chicago and Green Bay – a collective 13-28. Can they make it? Does it snow in Buffalo?

“They’ve got a real shot,” said NBC analyst and former head coach Jason Garrett.

SUNDAY SCHOOL: FIVE THINGS WE LEARNED

1.       The biggest NFC threat to Philadelphia isn’t Minnesota or Dallas. It’s San Francisco. That’s no surprise. The 49ers have a hermetically sealed defense. The Vikings and Dallas don’t. Defenses are supposed to win championships right? The 49ers have one. Dallas and Minnesota? Not so much.

2.       Trevor Lawrence has entered the stratosphere. There aren’t many quarterbacks playing better football today, and you can look it up. Over his last six starts he has 14 TDs, one interception, a 70.4 completion percentage, five passer ratings of 106.1 or better and four wins. In other words, he’s become the quarterback the Jaguars thought they were getting when they made him the first pick of the 2021 draft.

3.       Say goodnight to New England. With Sunday’s insane last-second-loss, the Patriots appear doomed. They could … no, should … miss the playoffs for the second time in three years. Granted, they’re still in the hunt and it’s not over ‘til it’s over. But be honest: Do you like their chances after that meltdown in Las Vegas? Now look at what’s next: Games vs. Cincinnati, Miami and Buffalo. Check, please,

4.        The Steelers won’t go quietly into the night. At 5-8 entering Sunday, they were in danger of suffering their first losing season under Mike Tomlin … or their first in his 16 seasons and the franchise’s first since 2003. Instead, they pulled off a 24-16 defeat of Carolina to keep the streak alive … for now. Next up: They take on the Raiders in Pittsburgh next weekend and how appropriate. It’s the 50th anniversary of the Immaculate Reception.

5.       The South may rise again … but not here and not now. AFC South? NFC South? It doesn’t matter who wins either division. They’re going nowhere in January. That’s what happens when you have divisions with no winning teams and a combined record of 18-36-2 in one (AF South) and 21-31 in the other.

THIRD AND 20

1.       The best game of the day wasn’t in Houston, Jacksonville or even Las Vegas. It was in Qatar. Now I know why 3.5 billion people watched the World Cup.

2.       Bill Belichick always tells players to “do your job” and not “to be a hero: Someone should’ve reminded Jakobi Meyers.

3.       Dear Roger Goodell: Tell us again what constitutes defensive pass interference. Because that was a textbook example on Washington’s final play Sunday night … and it wasn’t called. “It’s clearly a foul,” said NBC rules analyst Terry McAuley. “When it’s that obvious, it has to be called.” It wasn’t. Anyone at 345 Park Ave. want to explain? Didn’t think so.

4.       Three weeks ago, Titans’ coach Mike Vrabel challenged his team to decide “how we want to continue on down the season.” So they decided. They lost their next three to Philadelphia, Jacksonville and the Chargers. Now they’re in danger of blowing a division where nobody has a winning record.

5.       This is all you need to know about what Andy Reid has done in Kansas City: The Chiefs’ seventh straight division title is the longest current streak in the NFL, MLB, NHL and NBA,

6.       Not sure who gets the game ball in Cincinnati’s come-from-behind win. Tom Brady? Leonard Fournette? Byron Leftwich? Todd Bowles? All qualify. Cincinnati produced 24 second-half points off four Tampa Bay mistakes/turnovers.

7.       Relax, Broncos’ fans. It was Arizona.

8.       Little known stat about Philadelphia’s defense. The Eagles could make history this season with four pass rushers with double-digit sacks. Haason Reddick (12) is there. So is Javon Hargrave (10), with Josh Sweat (9.5) and Brandon Graham (8.5) close. You already know about Jalen Hurts, Miles Sanders and A.J. Brown. Now you know about the other side of the ball and why the Eagles are the most complete team out there.

9.       Say what you want about Ryan Tannehill, but never question his courage. The guy played on one leg for most of Sunday’s game and deserved better after a game-tying score in the last minute.

10.   Wait. The Chargers won on a last-second field goal? I must be dreaming.

11.   Someone tell the Jets’ Robert Saleh he doesn’t have to save his timeouts for next week.

12.   Memo to Atlanta’s Desmond Ridder: Next time your job is to launch a Hail Mary on the game’s last play, best not to run a quarterback keeper.

13.   Justin Fields has over 1,000 yards rushing this season, and that’s great. But he’s lost nine of his last 10 starts and barely has more TD passes (15) than interceptions (10).  Sure, he’s fun to watch scramble (especially with that pass protection), but a quarterback has to win with his arm first.

14.   Tennessee may win the AFC South, but the Titans aren’t the best team in the division. Jacksonville is.

15.   Say this about the Jets’ Zach Wilson: At least he learned a lesson from his last start. That’s when he declined to take responsibility for poor play in a Nov. 20 loss to New England. This time he admitted, “I gotta play better” after the latest Jets’ loss … and he’s right.

16.   There’s so much to like about Kansas City, starting with Patrick Mahomes. But I worry about the Chiefs’ defense. Denver and Houston put up 52 on them the past two weeks, and, OK, so Kansas City won both games. But it was Denver. And the Texans.

17.   Dak Prescott didn’t lose that game. Dallas coach Mike McCarthy did. With a three-point lead and 1:20 left, he turned down an opportunity to run the ball … and the clock … and tried to drop the hammer with a deep sideline pass. Result: Incompletion. It spared Jacksonville its last TO, and the rest you know. “Not running the ball, forcing the Jaguars to use their last timeout, is why we lost the game,” tweeted Dez Bryant. Bingo.

18.   Wait a minute. NO CATCHES for Mike Evans in the second half Sunday? I can only imagine what Bruce Arians thinks of the dumpster fire that is today’s Tampa Bay Bucs.

19.   Welcome back, J.J. Watt. Once the league’s Defensive Player of the Year, Watt turned back the clock for one afternoon with three sacks, three quarterback hits, three tackles for losses, one pass defensed and one forced fumble.

20.   One more question for the commissioner: The more I watch this league the less I understand the definition of a catch. Case in point: Keelan Cole’s game-tying TD Sunday. It was ruled a reception because, as the league’s senior VP of officiating Walt Anderson said, “it was not clear and obvious that the foot was on the white (sideline).” We must have been watching different replays. Mine made it clear and obvious that it was. Can you help?

SUNDAY’S GOLD JACKET STATS

n  The Giants’ 20-12 defeat of Washington snapped an 11-game losing streak in prime time games.

n  The Vikings, Jaguars and Bengals all won after trailing by 187 points. According to ESPN Stats & Info, this was the first week in NFL history where three teams came back to win after trailing by 17.

n  Tom Brady’s four turnovers tied his career high for one game … and he committed all four on consecutive drives.

n  Jacksonville’s victory ended a 20-game losing streak to the NFC.

n  Entering this season, Jacksonville was 1-112 when trailing by 17. This season the Jags are 2-2.

n  Justin Herbert is the first player in NFL history to throw for 4,000 yards in each of his first three years.

SUNDAY’S GOLD JACKET QUOTES

n  “I was trying to do too much. Trying to be a hero, I guess.” – New England wide receiver Jakobi Meyers.

n  “Obviously. we’ve got to do a better job of playing situational football and not make critical mistakes during the game.” – New England coach Bill Belichick.

n  “We’re all devastated.” -- N.Y Jets’ cornerback D.J. Reed.

n  “We’re never out of it. We’ve been in these situations before, and we always come back and make it a game.” – Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow.

n  “I’ve seen enough this year & #Daniel Jones has exceeded expectations – IMO he will absolutely be the @Giants #QB next year.” – Former Giants’ QB Phil Simms on Twitter.

AP Defensive Player of the Year Perspective Using EPA and WPA as a Guide

By Nick Webster 
Maxx Crosby

Aaron Donald’s lack of dominance has contributed to a wide-open AP Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY) contest for 2022.  We’ll leave it to later whether Donald is showing signs of age and falling off – but for the first time in years, he’s not in the DPOY conversation.  

As of now, Las Vegas rates the DPOY odds as Micah Parsons, Nick Bosa, Chris Jones, Matthew Judon, and Maxx Crosby ranked in that order. 

DPOY is always difficult because we’re comparing players with very difficult skill sets. So and so has more sacks, so and so has more stuffs, more passes defensed, more picks, etc., and that can be useful. But another way to view this is through EPA and WPA.  

For the non-statheads, EPA is expected points added and WPA is win probability added. On any given play there is an expected number of points to be scored before the play and after the play, EPA measures the difference.  

Remember the Steelers-Cardinals Super Bowl?

James Harrison intercepts a pass on the goal line, the expected points before the play was nearly 7, after he scores, it is now -7, so the EPA is -14. Harrison turned an expected 7 into a -7 points.  

You do the same thing with WPA but the scale is from 1 to -1 and it changes based on WHEN the play happens. 

The Harrison play on the second or third play of the game may have very little WPA but at the end of the game – if it’s close – would have a high WPA. WPA is about “leverage” and how important was the situation in which the player made the play.
 
That said, let’s look at this year's DPOY game through the EPA/WPA lens.  

Most feel Micah Parsons is likely to win, Vegas says so, but what do the numbers say?

We have sacks and we have lots of other stats we can measure with EPA/WPA and with that we can determine how much these players impact the likelihood that the other team will score and ultimately win.

Many will be surprised to know that based on EPA and WPA Maxx Crosby is the most impactful defense of the year on both fronts.

This chart is sorted in order of EPA—

However, Crosby still has little chance of winning which is too bad. He's having a great season. 

Thursday, December 15, 2022

Ranking the Top Seasons By 49er Edge Rushers

 By John Turney 

With a month to go in the 2022 season (and a month of playoffs) 49ers defensive end Nick Bosa is pushing to have the top season by a 49ers edge player in franchise history. He will be named on some ballots for the AP Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY) but unless Micah Parsons slumps and Bosa goes off in the final four games (if they don't rest Week 18) then Bosa will probably not win it. Parsons will. 

But is Bosa's 2022 season the best season in franchise history among players that have played either defensive end in a 4-3 defense or outside linebacker in a 3-4 who put the hand on the ground in passing situations?

Remember the 49ers have had a long legacy of elite pass rushers, even inside guys but that is a discussion for another day.

Here is how we rank them choosing only the best season by each player (one per customer). Later in this post there is a list of the top 25 that does include all seasons.


 1. Fred Dean, 1981—12.0 sacks for the 49ers. He was the UPI NFC Defensive Player of the Year and his acquisition was vital to the 49ers getting to and winning the Super Bowl. Dean has amazing natural strength and coming out of college he ran a 4.5 forty.

 2. Charles Haley, 1990—16.0 sacks, like Dean he was also the UPI NFC Defensive Player of the Year, and unlike Dean, he did not get a ring that season, he got his pair the previous two seasons. He also forced three fumbles, credited with nine passes defended and 58 tackles.

 3. Nick Bosa, 2022—Bosa is playing great and as mentioned will rank high in the AP DPOY voting, we're guessing a lot of second-place votes in the new voting format the AP is using) and is a lock for First-team All-Pro and Pro Bowl. With a month to go his sack total might challenge the franchise record. In our view, if he finishes strong he could end up as number one on this list. While a Super Bowl ring is not mandatory in our eyes it helps separate players who had similar statistical seasons. Stay tuned.

 4. Tommy Hart, 1976—was First-team All-Pro and a Pro Bowler, he totaled 73 tackles (12 were run stuffs), 16 sacks and three forced fumbles. He devastated the Rams on a Monday Night game with six sacks and numerous hurries.

 5. Aldon Smith, 2012—He set a franchise record for sacks with 19.5 and recorded 66 tackles and three forced fumbles. He was a First-team All-Pro and a Pro Bowler. As good an athlete as Dean was, Smith was even more of a physical freak.

 6. Cedrick Hardman, 1971—Made 45 tackles, forced five fumbles and 18 sacks. and was a Second-team All-Pro and voted to the Pro Bowl and played on a team that got to the NFC Championship, losing to the Cowboys.

 7. Clay Matthews, Sr., 1954—Complete sack data is not known but we know it was a decent number. According to TJ Troup and Nick Webster based on the films available for teams that year Matthews likely had the most in the NFL that year. They think it was either him or his teammate Jack Brumfield. Matthews, however, did not get any post-season honors for his stellar season.

 8. Chris Doleman, 1997—12 sacks and four forced fumbles on one of the top run-stopping defenses in the NFL that almost went to a Super Bowl. He had more sacks in 1998 but they seemed less impactful when you were watching them.

 9. Tim Harris, 1992—Playing the 'Elephant' position Harris racked up 17 sacks and made 64 tackles, and forced a fumble.

10. Dwaine Board, 1983—Played left defensive end in a 30 front but played outside (moving to right end) on passing downs. He had 33 tackles, 13 sacks, and five fumbles recovered

11. Andre Carter, 2002—Also a left defensive end, he was in his second year, and along with Bosa, Dean, and Aldon Smith he is among the twitchiest athletes on this list. He forced three fumbles, made 54 tackles and totaled 12.5 sacks.

12. Stan Hindman, 1967—The late 1960s 49ers could rush the passer with their front four and had a couple of linebackers who could augment them. Hindman had 12 sacks

13. Clark Miller, 1966—Ditto. Miller had ten sacks following up a 1965 season when he was an honorable mention All-Pro. 

14. Jack Brumfield, 1954—He flashed on film. He played just one NFL season for the 49ers and played well—the Mississippi Sports Hall of Fame shows him as the club's 1954 defensive MVP. Brumfield joined the military after the '54 season, and had brief comebacks in '57 and '58 but did not make an NFL roster and got into coaching after that. Talk about a one-year wonder, he may have had the best season by a player that played just a single NFL season.

15. Roy Barker, 1996— Which season: 1996 or 1998? Flip a coin. He had 12.5 and 12 sacks respectively. He was an NFC Defensive Player of the Week once each season. In 1998 half of his sacks occurred in two games. In 1996 they came more consistently and he had a higher grade, according to a trusted pro scouting firm. So that year was picked.

16. Charley Powell, 1953 —Legend has it that Powell got to the Lions quarterback ten times in one game as a rookie in 1952. It's not true, but it's a good story. However, some of his good games are on film and he did look good rushing the passer and he deserves a mention. He was a boxer and after his football career resumed his career, even fighting Muhammad Ali. But he was more consistent in 1953 even though he didn't have the "big game" that he did in 1952 so his sophomore NFL season is the pick.

17. Charlie Krueger, 1960—Before he moved to defensive tackle where he was a 49er mainstay for over a decade Krueger was an end. Sack data is not complete for 1960 so he had other seasons with more sacks but he was Second-team All-Pro and a Pro Bowler so writers and players must have thought he was pretty good that year. 

18. Daniel Colchico, 1961—He had at least 9½ sacks in his career year. The following year it was 8½. He was a very solid left defensive end.

19. Kevin Greene, 1997—As a one-year 49er he had 10.5 sacks in the "elephant" position.

20. Ricky Jackson, 1995—The former Saint recorded 9.5 sacks in his final NFL season also in the
so-called elephant spot. 

For purists, here is a ranking that includes multiple seasons by players—
  1. Fred Dean—1981
  2. Charles Haley—1990
  3. Nick Bosa—2022
  4. Tommy Hart—1976
  5. Nick Bosa—2021
  6. Aldon Smith—2012
  7. Cedrick Hardman—1971
  8. Clay Matthews Sr.—1954
  9. Fred Dean—1983
  10. Tommy Hart—1972
  11. Charles Haley—1988
  12. Cedrick Hardman—1975
  13. Cedrick Hardman—1976
  14. Chris Doleman—1997
  15. Charles Haley—1989
  16. Tim Harris—1992
  17. Aldon Smith—2011
  18. Charles Haley—1986
  19. Dwaine Board—1983
  20. Andre Carter—2002
  21. Chris Doleman—1998
  22. Stan Hindman—1967
  23. Clark Miller—1966
  24. Jack Brumfield—1954
  25. Charley Powell—1952
  26. Charlie Krueger—1960
Kevin Greene and Rickey Jackson.