2023 Handicap for the Hall

By Clark Judge  

Joe Thomas (l) and Darrelle Revis (r)

(EDITOR’S NOTE: Clark Judge is one of 49 Hall-of-Famer voters)

The month of January is about more than deciding who reaches the Super Bowl. It’s about who reaches the Pro Football Hall of Fame, too.

But that’s why I’m here.

With the Hall’s 49 selectors choosing five modern-era candidates from 15 finalists for the Class of 2023, there is plenty to decipher before answering that question. So let’s get to it and start s handicapping the field. What follows is an inside look at this year’s Hall-of-Fame class and what may happen next:

Q: Who are the favorites?

A: Easy. Tackle Joe Thomas and cornerback Darrelle Revis will be first-ballot inductees, joined by defensive end/linebacker DeMarcus Ware. Ware was a probable first-ballot choice last year but lost out when linebacker Sam Mills was an upset choice, reaching Canton in his last year of modern-era eligibility. With his election, there were no first-ballot choices for the first time since 2012 … and that was not expected. In fact, in two of the prior three years there were three first-ballot inductees each year. Cornerback Ronde Barber should join Thomas, Revis and Ware, and I’d make him a virtual certainty if there weren’t a couple of mitigating factors: 1) Albert Lewis’ candidacy and 2) gridlock at wide receiver. Nevertheless, I make him a favorite, too, mostly because his resume is bullet-proof and he reached the Top 10 in 2022. Barber is the only player in league history with 45 or more interceptions and 25 or more sacks. He was an all-decade choice. He won a Super Bowl. He had nearly as many interceptions (48) as Deion Sanders (53) and over twice as many tackles. Plus, he had more than ability. He had availability. Over his last 15 seasons, he didn’t miss a game. In his last 13 seasons, he didn’t miss a start -- a streak of 215 consecutive games. Now the clincher: He scored 14 non-offensive TDs … or one more than Charles Woodson, 10 more than Brian Dawkins and 11 more than LeRoy Butler. They’re all in the Hall. The other candidate I’d insert here is linebacker Zach Thomas for the simple reason that he’s been knocking on the door the past three years. He’s been a Top 10 candidate each of those years, and this is an opportune time for him to take the last step.

Q: You mentioned mitigating factors. Can you elaborate?

A: Yes. Lewis is one of four defensive backs in this year’s class (Revis, Barber and safety Darren Woodson are the others). But, like Mills a year ago, he’s in his last year of modern-era eligibility. So he’s made an unexpected last-minute run, and there will be a push to induct him before he falls into the senior category (for players who retired more than 25 years earlier). Lewis was not all-decade, and he didn’t win a Super Bowl. But he was one of the greatest special-teams performers in NFL history (12 blocked kicks) and, according to Hall voter and former coach Tony Dungy (he was an assistant with Kansas City 1989-91), was one of the top five cornerbacks of all time. That’s a powerful statement, and, guaranteed, it will be repeated at the meeting. So how should that impact Barber? Simple: He’s a cornerback. So are Revis and Lewis. I can’t see voters choosing three of five inductees at the same position. My guess: Lewis makes an initial move into the Top 10, just as first-time finalist Clay Matthews did in 2021, but stops there. The other X factor is the logjam at wide receiver where Andre Johnson, ReggieWayne and Torry Holt are bottled up. It’s a situation that’s happened before, with Andre Reed, Tim Brown and Cris Carter canceling each other out for years before one (Carter) made the first move (2013). Then, Reed and Brown followed in each of the next two years. Wayne and Holt have been finalists the past three years, but neither made the first cut from 15 to 10. Johnson, however, did in 2022, his first year of eligibility. That tells you that he has the momentum the others do not. So, would that be enough to push him into the final five at the expense of, say, a Barber or Thomas? I’m not sure. I don’t think so, but stay tuned.

Q: Any others we should watch?

A: Several. Returner Devin Hester is one. Voters typically don’t warm up to specialists, electing three in the Hall’s 60 year history – two kickers and one punter. But Hester is different. In his first year of eligibility, he crashed the Top 10. That puts him in the on-deck circle for this year. I’d keep my eye on linebacker Patrick Willis, too. In eight NFL seasons, he was named to seven Pro Bowls, was a five-time first-team All-Pro, led the league twice in tackles and was an all-decade choice. He was a first-time finalist last year and didn’t crack the Top 10. But I’d expect that to change this time. Jared Allen is an intriguing case, mostly because he hasn’t reached the Top 10 in two years as a finalist. But he should be mentioned. He ranks 12^th in career sacks, with only three-and-a-half fewer (136) than Jason Taylor (139-1/2), who was a first-ballot choice in 2017. One potential problem: Ware. He has 138-1/2 career sacks, and my guess is that voters will feel one pass rusher is enough.

Q: So, the rest are longshots?

A: Yes, but that doesn’t mean there couldn’t be an upset. Mills was one in 2022. So was former 49ers’ star Bryant Young, who wasn’t even a finalist the prior year. Both were elected. Dwight Freeney is a candidate in his first year of eligibility, but with Ware and Allen as competition I don’t see how he makes a move. The reason: Fewer career sacks (125-1/2). I’d love to see Cincinnati tackle Willie Anderson move forward in his second year as a finalist … and he should. But I don’t see it happening. The same goes for Woodson, who finally made it as a finalist in his 15^th year as a modern-era candidate. Then, of course, there are Holt and Wayne, and we’ve been down this path. The Hall already elected Marvin Harrison and Isaac Bruce. It’ll be interesting to see how much support there is for No. 2 receivers on teams that each won one Super Bowl. If Holt were elected, he becomes the fifth starter from “The Greatest Show on Turf,” and that’s fine. Except if it was “The Greatest,” why did it win only one Super Bowl?

Q: What about the coach/contributor and senior candidates?

A: There are four, and I don’t expect much resistance. Don Coryell is the coach/contributor candidate, and I’d be shocked if he didn’t make it. First, there’s been ample support within the room for him. Prior to this year, he was a six-time finalist – more than any coach considered by the Hall – and once (2016) a Top-10 modern-era candidate.  Second, he’s the only choice in a category that was created last year and is in its first year of operation. Overlooking him would be an indictment of the committee that elected him, and that’s not likely to happen. The three seniors are Ken Riley, Chuck Howley and Joe Klecko. Of that group, Klecko might incur some resistance, but I don’t forsee enough to block his election. But I hedge because we have three candidates. When voters have more than one, they can … and have … blocked senior and/or contributor choices. It happened to Paul Tagliabue when he was one of two contributor choices in 2017. It happened to seniors Dick Stanfel (2012) and Claude Humphrey (2009), too, though both were later elected.

Q: When will we know?

A: There are bound to be leaks, but officially … officially … not before the Feb. 9 NFL Honors Show. Between now and then, inductees will be notified via The Knock, where a Gold Jacket (living Hall of Famer) stops by his home to knock on the front door while the NFL Network films.