Wednesday, January 25, 2023

G.O.A.T. Return Specialist Devin Hester Gaining or Losing Momentum?

 By John Turney 
Last year Devin Hester became eligible for the Pro Football Hall of Fame having waited the mandatory five years and he zoomed through the semifinalist list of 25 and Final 15 into the Top 10 like he zoomed through punt and kick coverages during his 11-year NFL career.

Will he advance this year to the top five and get 80% affirmative votes to be inducted in 2023? 

Unknown at this point.

What we do know at this point is that he's generally regarded as the top punt return specialist of all time and the top overall return specialist of all time.

Even big fans and supporters of both Rick Upchurch and Bill "White Shoes" Johnson would probably agree. Both Upchurch and Johnson were big-time return specialists with Hall of Fame credentials themselves. Upchurch was the First-team returner on the 1970s All-Decade team and Johnson was the same for the 1980s. 

Johnson led the NFL in punt return average in 1975 and 1977 and Upchurch in 1976, 78, and 82.  Johnson was First-team All-Pro in 1975, 77, and 83. Upchurch held the same honor in 1976, 78, 79, and 82.

For his career, Johnson averaged 11.7 yards on punt returns and Upchurch 12.1. Johnson took six punts to the house and Upchurch eight. 

Combined they had 14 touchdown returns.

Fourteen. That's how many Devin Hester had. He had four more than anyone else on the all-time list. On a play that is extremely hard to achieve, a punt return for a touchdown, having four more than the next guy is really impressive. For comparison, on kickoff returns the all-time leader, Cordarrelle Patterson, is ahead of the next player on the list by a single touchdown. It's close. With Hester's total, it's not close, relatively speaking.

In total kick/punt returns for scores, it's the same narrative. Hester has 19. The next closest is Brian Mitchell with 14. Hester has five more.

Is Hester the best kickoff returner of all-time? No. That would be someone else but Hester was a great kick-returner nonetheless. The numbers, in context, show he was excellent at kick returns as well.

First, he took five kickoffs back for touchdowns which is the most important number for a returner. It is what makes them a threat to opposing teams and a nightmare to opposing special teams coaches. Only eight players in NFL history have more than Hester (he's tied for ninth).

Second, it's how Hester had to achieve his numbers and this can only be proven through the eye test, not what is on paper. Teams avoided kicking the ball to Hester for much of his career. Dribble kicks, directional kicks, and semi-squib kicks. You name it. 

When watching Bears games, many times Hester would have to pick the ball up at the say, five- or eight-yard line and try to make yards with just a fraction less time than if he could field the ball in the air. 

This happened on kickoffs far more than punts because the way to deal with a dominant punt returner is through hang time or kick the ball near a sideline or even out of bounds.

You can't kick out of bounds on a kickoff because you'll get penalized and adding additional hangtime is tougher on a kickoff than a punt so the way to deal with a dominant kick returner is to kick a touchback or to try to break his routine—make him chase or field an unusual ball, anything to allow your coverage to get closer to him than on a normal kick. That is what happened scores of times with Hester.

There is little doubt that Hester was an extraordinary game-changer even among his peers and kicking to him too often would get you burned. Burned badly.

All things considered, it is reasonable to believe he's the G.O.A.T. of return guys overall when taking into account the volume of kicks. There are some players back in the day with higher averages but they did return punts and kicks as a specialty, they did it as part of their overall job in an era that didn't really employ specialists.

And there's the rub. 

Will voters ever vote for a player who was just a returner? It's a philosophical question, not one of who the returner should be that gets in the Hall of Fame first but a question of if a return specialist should be in the Hall of Fame at all.

That specialist question has been answered in terms of kickers and punters, specialists themselves when kicker Jan Stenerud was inducted in 1991. Ray Guy, a punter,  and Morten Andersen, another kicker, followed suit later on. It's presumed that Adam Vinatieri will perhaps join them at some point.

But a returner? One who was not a Gale Sayers or Jack Christiansen? Those are two players who would be in the Hall of Fame even if they were not tremendous return men. 

With Hester, he wouldn't. He was not a star at defensive back or receiver, though, for a few years, he got snaps at receiver and averaged about 40 catches and 500 yards and three touchdowns a year in that role. It's not great but it's not a failure either. 

No, it's clear Hester is in the Final 15 for the second year in the role as a specialist alone, as White Shoes Johnson and Rick Upchurch would have been had they ever gotten a shot since they were both so-so receivers with their clubs, averaging roughly similar receiving numbers per year as Hester.

The "is a return specialist worthy of a Gold Jacket" debate is one the voters may have for more than two years. Maybe more than that.

1 comment:

  1. From Brian wolf ...

    Hester was voted out of the top 10 this year ...

    ReplyDelete