. . . and you never thought you'd be reading about Jimmy Clausen!
by Nick Webster
by Nick Webster
On Thanksgiving Day the country was delivered a treat, turkey
and stuffing aside, we were all given the rare opportunity – outside of the
state of Michigan – to witness the continued break-out of Lions DE Ziggy
Ansah. Ansah , a highly drafted project
out of BYU, has been trending upward for much of the last few seasons –but few
saw Thursday coming. But Ansah (prior to
Thursday) was still having a season a level above any of his previous
performances, and you could see it coming, maybe it wasn’t the sacks, maybe it
was the non-Sack hits.
The NFL has been tracking QB Hits1 by defenders
for a number of years now, but the final counts presented in the box scores and
elsewhere2 included hits on QB Sacks. As such, the QB Hit statistics essentially
double counted QB Sacks, and the list so closely tracked the Sack list so as to
not add value. However, by removing QB
Hits on QB Sacks we can get a sense of who is getting pressure and just not
quite getting to the QB. And in 2014,
that was Ziggy Ansah.
Ziggy Ansah
|
||||||||||||
Year
|
Age
|
G
|
GS
|
QB Hit
|
FF
|
|||||||
24
|
14
|
12
|
8
|
35th
|
4
|
>50th
|
17
|
13
|
2
|
2
|
253rd
|
|
25
|
16
|
16
|
7.5
|
31st
|
16
|
3rd
|
39
|
12
|
3
|
7.5
|
25th
|
|
26
|
10
|
10
|
8
|
4th
|
15
|
2nd
|
27
|
5
|
4
|
3
|
85th
|
|
Career
|
41
|
39
|
23.5
|
35
|
83
|
30
|
9
|
12.5
|
||||
Clearly, in this case, the QB Hits in 2014 portended sacks
in 2015. And another breakout pass
rusher Carlos Dunlap, who was 3rd in the league in QB Sacks heading
into Week 12 of 2015 ranked 2nd in the NFL in non-Sack QB Hits in
2014.
But what is the value of a QB hit in and of itself? Absent a sack, the play goes on, but what do
those plays look like? Clearly – the
numbers suggest – there is value in hitting the Quarterback. So far in 2015 QB Hits have been registered
on 9.9% of all non-sack drop-backs, providing for a meaningful sample of 1,152
passes where the QB was hit and the numbers are far worse on those drop -back
than when a QB was relatively unmolested.
NFL Passing when
Hit 2015 – to Week 11
Situation
|
Comp
|
%Comp
|
Y / A
|
TD
|
%TD
|
%Int
|
Pass Rate
|
AY / A3
|
|||
League Tot
|
11,669
|
7,367
|
63.1%
|
80,107
|
6.9
|
535
|
4.6%
|
286
|
2.5%
|
88.4
|
6.7
|
When Hit
|
1,152
|
497
|
43.1%
|
6,786
|
5.9
|
51
|
4.4%
|
46
|
4.0%
|
60.7
|
5.0
|
Not Hit
|
10,517
|
6,870
|
65.3%
|
73,321
|
7.0
|
484
|
4.6%
|
240
|
2.3%
|
91.4
|
6.9
|
Difference
|
-22.2%
|
-1.1
|
-0.2%
|
1.7%
|
-30.7
|
-1.9
|
The passer rating of 60.7 suggests that any average QB, when
hit, turns in to essentially the worst starting QB in the league. The table below shows the top, and bottom,
qualified QB’s in 2015 sorted by Passer Rating and a mythical QB “2015 When
Hit”. The NFL’s last qualified starter
to have a lower passer rating than “2015 When Hit” was Jimmy Clausen as the
starter for the 2010 Panthers with a 58.4.
Individual Passers
2015 – to Week 11
Player
|
%Comp
|
Y/A
|
TD
|
%TD
|
%Int
|
Rate
|
|||||
1
|
339
|
217
|
64
|
3066
|
9
|
27
|
8
|
9
|
2.7
|
108.6
|
|
2
|
409
|
271
|
66.3
|
3320
|
8.1
|
25
|
6.1
|
4
|
1
|
107.4
|
|
3
|
335
|
218
|
65.1
|
2738
|
8.2
|
20
|
6
|
5
|
1.5
|
104
|
|
4
|
370
|
257
|
69.5
|
2972
|
8
|
20
|
5.4
|
9
|
2.4
|
101.3
|
|
5
|
212
|
144
|
67.9
|
1669
|
7.9
|
11
|
5.2
|
4
|
1.9
|
100.9
|
|
6
|
341
|
216
|
63.3
|
2565
|
7.5
|
21
|
6.2
|
6
|
1.8
|
99.4
|
|
7
|
420
|
288
|
68.6
|
3211
|
7.6
|
19
|
4.5
|
8
|
1.9
|
98.2
|
|
8
|
390
|
236
|
60.5
|
2684
|
6.9
|
24
|
6.2
|
4
|
1
|
97.4
|
|
9
|
211
|
141
|
66.8
|
1887
|
8.9
|
10
|
4.7
|
7
|
3.3
|
97
|
|
10
|
384
|
248
|
64.6
|
2700
|
7
|
21
|
5.5
|
6
|
1.6
|
96.9
|
|
23
|
314
|
183
|
58.3
|
2405
|
7.7
|
15
|
4.8
|
9
|
2.9
|
86.5
|
|
24
|
413
|
266
|
64.4
|
2791
|
6.8
|
14
|
3.4
|
12
|
2.9
|
83.1
|
|
25
|
335
|
214
|
63.9
|
2297
|
6.9
|
11
|
3.3
|
10
|
3
|
82.4
|
|
26
|
386
|
218
|
56.5
|
2623
|
6.8
|
20
|
5.2
|
12
|
3.1
|
81.8
|
|
27
|
322
|
188
|
58.4
|
2199
|
6.8
|
16
|
5
|
11
|
3.4
|
81.5
|
|
28
|
244
|
144
|
59
|
1615
|
6.6
|
6
|
2.5
|
5
|
2
|
78.5
|
|
29
|
256
|
145
|
56.6
|
1678
|
6.6
|
7
|
2.7
|
6
|
2.3
|
75.9
|
|
30
|
293
|
162
|
55.3
|
1881
|
6.4
|
15
|
5.1
|
12
|
4.1
|
74.9
|
|
31
|
322
|
193
|
59.9
|
2180
|
6.8
|
9
|
2.8
|
17
|
5.3
|
67.6
|
|
32
|
147
|
78
|
53.1
|
770
|
5.2
|
3
|
2
|
4
|
2.7
|
63.6
|
|
33
|
1,152
|
497
|
43.1
|
6,786
|
5.9
|
51
|
4.4
|
46
|
4.0
|
60.7
|
2015 Defensive QB
Hit Leaders – to Week 11
Player
|
Hit
|
|
1
|
22
|
|
2
|
15
|
|
3
|
O.VERNON
|
15
|
4
|
13
|
|
5
|
L.WILLIAMS
|
12
|
6
|
11
|
|
7
|
11
|
|
8
|
11
|
|
9
|
11
|
|
10
|
11
|
|
11
|
11
|
|
12
|
P.MCPHEE
|
11
|
13
|
11
|
|
14
|
M.BENNETT
|
10
|
15
|
10
|
|
16
|
M.JOHNSON
|
10
|
17
|
10
|
|
18
|
R.NINKOVICH
|
10
|
19
|
M.WILKERSON
|
10
|
20
|
Many Tied
|
9
|
1 1 The NFL Definition of QB Hit requires that the
Passer is taken to the ground, this may be conservative, but assists in
removing judgement
2 2 For seasons prior to 2015 Total QB Hits
(including sack plays) can be found on Advanced Football Analytics, Brian
Burke’s excellent site. Alas, ESPN Stats
and Information hired Burke in 2015 and the site is no longer maintained. Non-sack Hits can usually be derived by
subtracting sacks from Hits and adding back FF’s – half sacks should be treated
as whole sacks for the purpose of this calculation. Addr: http://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/index.php/home/stats/defensive-players/defensive-ends
3 3 AY / A = Adjusted Yards per Attempt is (Yards +
TD’s *20 – Int * 45) / Attempts. Similar
to the NEWS QB rating offered in the classic, The Hidden Game of Football by
Carroll, Palmer and Thorn.
