By Eric Goska
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| Receiver Christian Watson was the only Packer to convert a third-down in Chicago. (photos by Eric Goska) |
Who needs third down?
Not the Packers who might be better off without it.
In squeaking past Chicago 20-19 at Soldier Field, Green Bay mounted
three touchdown drives without once bumping up against third down. That the
team failed to score on any advance when it did only served to highlight its
continuing struggles when the down marker hits three.
Credit the Packers for all but avoiding third down. They got
there just five times as Jordan Love and Co. made hay on early downs.
Green Bay gained 191 yards on 23 first-down plays (8.3
average). It produced 148 yards on 14 second-down snaps (10.6).
First and second were all the Packers required as they rolled
to scores on advances of 70, 70 and 78 yards. Eighteen plays produced 213
yards, 11 first downs and TDs by Jayden Reed, Josh Jacobs and Love.
On those possessions, second down functioned as a surrogate third
down. Green Bay went 6-for-6 in those instances, gaining 119 yards when 35 was
needed.
If only the real third down could be dealt with as expeditiously. Sustained success there might eliminate the need for a Karl Brooks to block to Cairo Santos’ 46-yard field goal attempt as time expired in order to win.
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| Karl Brooks blocked Cairo Santos' last-second field goal attempt which allowed Green Bay to win its 11th straight against the Bears. |
In Chicago, the Packers gained all of 22 yards on five
third-down plays. They earned a first down just once, that on a 17-yard pass
from Love to Christian Watson in the second quarter.
Watson’s conversion kept alive an advance that was Green Bay’s
longest in terms of plays run (12). But the drive ended on third down when cornerback
Terell Smith waylaid a pass intended for Tucker Kraft near the Bears’ end zone.
Talk about a momentum shift. Rookie Caleb Williams then
directed a 13-play, 76-yard TD march that put Chicago up 10-7 at the half.
Love’s interception underscored Green Bay’s difficulty on
third down, particularly in the passing game. The second-year starter’s numbers
are down this season, with one metric having fallen so low it should give the
coaching staff pause.
To date, Love has completed 27 of 59 passes (45.8
percent) for 311 yards, six TDs and four interceptions on third down. His passer
rating (67.8) is the lowest on that down by a Packers quarterback (minimum 50
attempts) since Brett Hundley’s 62.8 in 2017.
Since 1992, just two Packers quarterbacks have finished with
a rating below 70: Hundley and Brett Favre (68.0) in 1999. Green Bay finished
7-9 in 2017 and 8-8 in 1999.
More disconcerting is Love’s inability to produce first
downs. Just 15 of his 59 throws (25.4 percent) have moved the chains.
That rate is the third lowest by a Packers passer over the
last 70 years. Only David Whitehurst (18.3) in 1978 and Randy Wright (24.6) in
1987 have been lower since 1954 (minimum 50 attempts).
Love can improve. He did in 2023.
In starting out 3-6 last season, Love compiled a third-down
passer rating of 83.7. He completed 52 of 90 passes for 602 yards, four TDs and
four interceptions. Thirty-eight of his 90 passes (42.2 percent) resulted in
first downs.
In finishing 6-2, Love compiled a third-down passer rating
of 122.2. He completed 45 of 72 passes for 491 yards, 10 TDs and nary an
interception. Thirty-eight of his 72 attempts (52.7 percent) brought first
downs.
Love’s lack of production has meant the Packers have gone
seven straight games with fewer than 50 yards passing on third down. It is the
team’s longest such streak in at least a dozen years.
Only twice this season has Love converted more than two
third downs into firsts with his passing. He came up with four in a 34-13 win
over the Cardinals and three in a 24-22 victory over the Texans.
Since 1954, Packers whose third-down throws produced the fewest first downs on a percentage basis. (minimum 50 attempts)
Rate Passer Year Attempts-FDs
18.3 David Whitehurst 1978 93-17
24.6 Randy Wright 1987 69-17
25.4 Jordan Love 2024 59-15
25.7 John Hadl 1975 113-29
25.7 Lynn Dickey 1977 74-19
27.5 Anthony Dilweg 1990 51-14
28.4 Scott Hunter 1972 74-21
29.3 Tobin Rote 1955 92-27
Eric, interesting analysis but I wonder if it has actual "real-world" significance.....I don't mean to oversimplify, but the fact that (as you point out) Love manages to get Green Bay in so few (and possibly short yardage) 3rd downs may account for your "low production/percentaged" stat......the fact that the Pack is 7-3 and he seems to be managing the games well surely (?) matters more than this stat within a stat?.......how does the coaching staff feel about this?.....curious as to your thoughts, in no way a criticism or flame?
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