Monday, December 23, 2024

Why Calais Campbell 'Defines' a Pro Football Hall of Famer

By John Turney 
If there were a Hall of Fame for NFL players who did great things for their community and were all-around good men, Calais Campbell would be a first-ballot selection.

The 2008 second-round draft pick was the recipient of the 2019 Walter Payton Man of the Year Award. That same year, Athletes in Action, an organization that mentors coaches and athletes. gave him the Bart Starr Award. In 2022, the NFL named him its winner of the Art Rooney Sportsmanship Award, and this year the NFL Players Association chose him for its Alan Page Award for community service. 

Few NFL players have been recognized so widely for their philanthropy.

But the Pro Football Hall of Fame is not about what is done off the field -- good or bad. It's what is done on it, and Campbell has done that effectively and consistently as he nears the end of his 17th season. But has it been a Hall-of-Fame career? If 2024 is his final season, would he eventually have his 6-foot-8, 307-pound frame fitted for a Gold Jacket?

Hard to say.

That's because defensive linemen who often play inside don't always gain the attention from Hall voters as the outside stars -- i.e., the sack meisters. Heck, Kevin Williams was a five-time consensus All-Pro, and he can't even make a semifinalists' list. 

But Campbell may be different. 

For openers, he may not be finished, recently telling The Athletic's Zak Keefer that he may play "until the wheels fall off" ... and the wheels are still rolling, thank you very much. Campbell takes extraordinary care of his body, spending around a quarter of a million dollars a year on body specialists, a nutritionist and chef to get the most from his aging body.

And it's worked.

He's still playing like a Pro Bowler. So much so that at this year's trade deadline, the Baltimore Ravens tried to acquire him to bolster their defensive front. Campbell played there from 2020-22, so they were familiar with his skill set. But Miami coach Mike McDaniel refused. to let him go.

At that time, the Dolphins were trying to dig out of a hole and felt that, with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa returning from concussion protocol, they not only had a shot to be successful; but would have a better chance with a solid defense that included Campbell.

"He's like the LeBron James of the NFL right now," teammate Jonnu Smith said on "The Pat McAfee Show." "As far as his age and the production that he brings to the game, (he's) still playing at a high level. I mean, the guy is 1,000 years old and playing like he's 21."

Exaggerations aside, Smith is right.

For example, last Sunday he took down Texans' running back Joe Mixon two yards behind the line of scrimmage for his 105th career stuff (a tackle for loss on a run or pass play other than a sack ... and that's a lot. According to researcher/historian Nick Webster, few players ever reach triple digits. But, when combined with 109-1/2 sacks, they bring Campbell's career numbers to 214-1/2 plays behind the line scrimmage.

But that is not all.

Having 100 sacks and 100 stuffs puts Campbell in rarefied air. Webster's figures show he's one of five defensive linemen to achieve it -- that is if you include outside linebacker/defensive end Terrell Suggs as a lineman. And the others? Deacon Jones, Bruce Smith, J.J. Watt and Alan Page.

That sounds like a career worthy of the Hall of Fame.

If you don't like that, then go by the official tackles for loss (TFL) stat that was introduced in 1999. It's not as comprehensive and is scored in an odd way -- let's just say I don't love it -- but it's useful. And it's official. So some like it.

In that statistic, Campbell is third all-time with 185 (and counting) TFLs. Only Suggs and J.J. Watt have more. He tops Aaron Donald, Julius Peppers, Jared Allen and everybody else who played this century.

That also sounds like the stuff of a Hall-of-Famer.

Football analytics site Pro Football Focus (PFF) this year ranks him sixth in the NFL at his position. Sixth. At the age of 38. It's the ninth time Campbell has been in PFF's top 10 in his 17 years, with a handful of others when he was close. In 2018, for instance, he ranked first. In 2016 and 2017, he was second. And in 2019, he was third.

Perhaps not now but in six, eight or 10 years -- when Campbell's case is presented to the Hall's board of selectors -- voters may pay more attention to analytics sites like PFF or NextGen Stats as the group gets younger and is receptive to more than just counting stats. If they do, Campbell's grades and ranking will sound Hall-of-Fame worthy.

One group the current board is receptive to is Proscout, Inc. (PSI), an independent scouting firm that several NFL teams use for personnel evaluations and other insights. PSI's work has been a consistent resource for voters since 1994 when former Sports Illustrated writer and Hall voter Paul Zimmerman utilized the expertise of PSI's founder, the late Mike Giddings, to strengthen the Hall-of-Fame case for cornerback Jimmy Johnson.

It helped. Johnson was enshrined in 1994. And it helped the cases of other players who now own Gold Jackets.

The ratings by PSI on Campbell are similar to PFF's. Seven times it has him in what are called "single digits," which means among the top nine, and another five where it evaluates him as "blue," its highest ranking.

Again, that sounds like the stuff of the Hall of Fame.

A few years ago Giddings said that Campbell "defines a Hall of Famer. Tall, fast, strong, moving all downs. (He's) blue vs. TE, T, G, C." That last sentence is telling. It says that Campbell excels vs. all those positions -- tight end, tackle, etc. -- which means he's elite on the inside or out, over whomever a coach wants to play him.

But that's what Campbell has done throughout his career -- play multiple positions and play them well.

With the Cardinals, he was an end in a 3-4 defense. But when he would move inside for passing situations, it was over a guard or even a center. Later, after he signed a free-agent contract with the Jacksonville Jaguars, he was a 4-3 end. But, again, on passing downs, he slid inside to defensive tackle.

In the last five years with the Ravens, Falcons and Dolphins, you could find him lining up everywhere, without the structure of his early years. With the Falcons last year, he played 63 percent of the time on the edge, with the rest more to the middle. This year, it's more inside than out. 

With Campbell, you just don't know where he'll line up ... and that uniqueness is part of his greatness.

"In the run game," he told the Palm Beach Post, "I am more dominant at the defensive end position. In the pass game, I am more dominant in the interior position ... but I also feel like I am pretty good in all space."

None of that was lost on Hall-of-Fame voters when they chose him to the all-decade of the 2010s, along with J.J. Watt, Julius Peppers and Cameron Jordan. The AP voted him first-team All-Pro in 2017 and second-team All-Pro in 2014 and 2016, while the Pro Football Writers voted him Defensive Player of the Year in 2017, a year when he was just six votes shy of winning the AP award.

Additionally, he was a Pro Bowler five times and an alternate once.

That also sounds like the stuff of the Hall of Fame.

The University of Miami product currently has over 900 combined tackles and is credited with 63 passed defensed. He's also blocked nine place kicks and defensively scored five times, with three touchdowns and twice on safeties. Those kinds of numbers, plus the sacks, are rare -- and Hall-worthy

By the end of the year, he will have played over 260 games, with over 240 starts, and that's third all-time in both. Plus, his 17 seasons are exceeded by only three defensive linemen. 

His longevity is certainly the stuff of a Hall-of-Famer, too.

But will it be? It should. 

Calais Campbell is one of those players who can stop the run and rush the passer ... who can knock down a pass or a field goal ... and who is tough, durable and a leader. Guys like that deserve to have their careers recognized with a bronze bust in Canton. 

"With his passion leadership and toughness," said Ravens' GM Eric DeCosta, "Calais has undoubtedly produced a Hall-of-Fame-worthy career.

Now you know why.

Career stats through Week 15, 2024—

9 comments:

  1. two quick points John.....1. (lesser of 2)...PFF is a joke....I follow my college program and their "grades" are absurd.....one of the worst Ds in college football consistently grades 75+ success....I will say it again as loudly and clearly as I can...."without knowing precisely what the methodology is and who applies it, it's just some marketing scheme...<does Cris Collingsworth own this?) 2. you could have saved a TON of space if you wanted and just a. put up the numbers and b. asked any "remotely reasonable" viewer to apply the eye test....Calais Campbell is most assuredly a HoFer, one of the great D linemen of all time, and arguably a first ballot inductedd.....B-E-A-S-T by ANY metric.

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    1. If you don't like PFF, that's fine. I have never looked at their college stuff, so I don't know what they are doing with that.

      As far as PFF. I think it's more than a marketing scheme but also agree they are not the be-all, end-all. I think when they count QB hits, hurries and where guys line up, there are uses. Also, I've noticed they generally have good grades on some of the esoteric kinds of players, like Campbell and others.

      But, if they are not your cup of tea, I understand. I say they are useful, but flawed>

      As far as HOF for Campbell, you'd be surprised how many people don't agree with you (and me) about him being a Hall of Famer. Many point to the lack of All-pros and Pro Bowls.

      Reasonable people can disagree, but to me, he fits as HOFer as a guy who was the 30 DE/40 DT kind of guy.

      Good base, couldn't be moved easily and pretty nimble for a big man. As far as what a couple HOF voters have told me at last year's Super Bowl ... he's not a lock, but when I see Kevin Williams (5x All-pro) not making semis, it's a concern.

      Williams didn't play as long but both that kind of power player ... My guess is he eventually will get it, but not right away, maybe a few or several years after be becomes eligible.

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    2. BW ...

      Campbell has great versatility and professionalism. He's like the Frank Gore of 34 ends, productive with great longevity and work ethic. He compiles with a purpose, rather than playing all-out when he wants to, like alot of players in contract years. He has a great case but like Kevin Williams, will be underrated because he played alot on the interior. Still, if Richard Seymour can make the HOF--and championships helped his cause--Calais should get in eventually but the draft classes will have to elect at least five moderns again. I feel this upcoming class will only have four elected.

      Jim is right, PFF is overrated and skewed but also good on certain metrics and statistical analytics like John says. Yet with TV networks wanting more offensive football while taking away more defensive aggression and instincts, the average defensive player will be judged and graded more on seeing, diagnosing and reacting to plays more, hoping to bring down or cover the opposing player without using enough collision to get fined or penalized in crucial situations too often.

      PFF football "analysis" reminds me of the baseball outfielder who allows singles or doubles in front of him, rather than hustling towards making a great catch or great throw to get the hitter out, knowing that with the miss, the ball could roll right towards the fence. PFF will reward a less daring or aggressive approach to playing the game.

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    3. interesting "take" on PFF Brian....you are engaged with a number of sites that I am not so hopefully you know stuff about the following....so here is my question for you (or John or anybody...): is PFF's methodology of evaluation available anywhere? If so, a. what are the benchmarks/criteria/protocol/processes by which evaluators evaluate? b. who are the evaluators/graders and what are there qualifications? c. who owns PFF and d. how do they generate the revenue?
      If not, what are they hiding? (or if you will, more pc: WHY not?)
      Without a clear understanding of the above, I challenge the validity of the data provided (by a media which has inundated us with flotsam ("pseudo"-analytics) and jetsam (rules "analysts").....

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    4. I am not one to try and chance you mind John. Your opinion is as valid as anyone else's. And I think most people at times are going to have disagreements with PFF's grades.

      But yes, there is a protocol or methodology to their system, and it's similar to what coaches have done for decades. It is a plus or minus system. A film grader will watch a play and give it a plus (+) or a minus (-) or a neutral (nothing). At the end you add up the pluses and subtract the minues and divide it by the number of snaps and that is the preliminary grade. So, when you see, for example, JJ Watt with a grade of 90 ... it means 9 times out of 10 he did his job.

      But they also do other things, like counting certain plays. Like sacks allowed by an offensive lineman or touchdowns allowed by a defensive back or pressures created by a defensive lineman and tackles missed for defenders. All those would be already included in the grades.

      If, again, JJ Watt got a hurry on a play it would be a + ... so you have a positive grade on the play but also in the "counting" it is a hurry.

      Specifcally, I don't know how PFF does big plays or splash plays. But a ++ could be given. Or a really bad play could be a double minus (- - ) but PFF may do some form of that.

      They also do another thing -- track where guys play on each snap. back in the day you know you could find Merlin Olsen at left defensive tackle. Sure, if someone took a series off, say Lamar Lundy Olsen might play that right DE. Of if Deacon was out, Merlin would on occalse take some snaps at LDE. And if Merlin took a few snaps off, then maybe a backup would come in. Saw this some especially in 1964.

      But now? For defensive linemen and linebackers you cannot always find where guys are. And you'd have to sit down and watch everything to do it yourself. Nick Bosa plays both LDE and RDE. Want to know how much? PFF will tell you. Want to know how many snap Kyle Hamilton plays a safety and how many ion the slot? PFF can tell you. I find that handy and it is something apart from their grades -- I call it "counting stuff".

      When they do a individual defensive passer rating for a player -- using the same stats -- it can be compared to other services like SIS, Stats Perform and Next Gen and so one. There are small differences but in my experience but all the services have similar stats in that one thing and that, to me, lends credence to PFF's methods.

      When it comes to pressures, hits, hurries, etc, it can be cheked with NextGen and others. And no one is right, no one is wrong, but in general they are pretty close --- as long as you compare the same things (hits to hits, hurries to hurries, pressures to pressures, etc)

      The evaluators are -- if I understand it right -- people with some football experiences, guys with coaching or scouting experience on some level.





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    5. PFF had, in the past, don't know about now, their "silver" committee that would spot check the grades of their graders --- those were former coaches, some of them pretty big names, cannot remember them all but Marvin Lewis, Wannstedt if memory serves so that is notable.

      And for defenders, I have see a correlation to guys who are "All-pro" good and who get high grades --- JJ Watt looked dominant, would make All-Pro and also usually graded the highest or one of the highest.

      But sure, there were exceptions -- grades that were controversial.

      As far as how they make money? Subscribers. They have packages for fans, then they have other packages that are more advanced that maybe $6000 a month and I think teams pay well over $100K or more -- but that is a guess. The $6000 is a fact because I know one guy who pays that much so his website can have extra things most don't.

      Those are the answers to your questions. But it does not mean I want to change your mind ... think whatever you want ... but I enjoyed seeing "flotsam" and "jetsam" in your comment. That's great.

      Over the years PFF has caught some guff and they have talked about how they do things.

      My biggest issue is they are grading not know the called plays. Often you can tell -- if they are looking at Tampa-2 or a non-traditional Tampa-2 ... but if a team is playing quarters or Cov-6 or * and it is a "Trix/Robber" call and there is a touchdown, it is hard to assign blame for a TD unless you know the call. I have see someone give up a long play, the fans of that team just roast him on Twitter and later I find out that is twas the CB not the LBer but the LBer chased someone trying to save the day so it looked like it was his coverage, when it wasn't.

      I think that can happen and that's my biggest criticism of PFF. That and they are grading, not evaluating.

      One coach told Mike Giddings "Only 1 in a 100 coaches can evaluate. All 100 can grade film, but there is only one who can take that grade and evaluate a player" and this is how Proscout started, kind of on that premise that Giddings was one of the "1 in 100".

      PFF is not really that, they are film graders by an large. They don't tell you if JJ Watt did an inside or outside move to get a pressure, only that he got one.



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    6. greatly appreciate the very detailed explanation of PFF John....I understand that some parties might find the information you describe above as valid, informative, and helpful.....I personally am not at a level of interest that that kind of specific detail is meaningful, but recognize now that it's of use to some....thanks for educating me.....

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    7. Campbell is a definite Hall of Famer.
      Bill Bergey passed away today. Why isn’t he considered for the Hall of Fame. For instance, Campbell was named All Pro 3 times. Bergey was named All Pro 5 times. You might want to write an article on Bergey’s credentials. He was a great LB!

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    8. Here is one on Bergey from last April
      https://nflfootballjournal.blogspot.com/2024/04/bill-bergeythe-1970s-forgotten-mlb.html

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