By John Turney
Antonio Gates |
When the Pro Football Hall-of-Fame's Class of 2024 was announced last week, there were some surprises, disappointments and perhaps a snub or two. Nothing new there. So relax. We get to do it all over again in 51 weeks. That's when the Class of 2025 is elected, and we opine about next year's surprises, disappointments and snubs.
But who will they be?
Obviously, it's impossible to know, but you can always try to predict ... which I intend to do here, but only with the modern-era candidates. I'll leave out the coach/contributor and senior candidates for now.
A good place to start is the finalists who survived this year's reduction cut from 15 to 10. They often are elected the following year, and, with this year's group, there's a strong possibility that at least a few -- if not more -- wind up enshrined in 2025.
Those five are tight end Antonio Gates, safety Darren Woodson, tackle Willie Anderson, receiver Torry Holt and defensive end Jared Allen. Then there are notable first-time eligible players like quarterback Eli Manning, linebacker Luke Kuechly, guard Marshall Yanda, running back Marshawn Lynch and edge rusher Terrell Suggs.
Of the five holdovers, you'd think Gates would be the leading candidate. I do. With more touchdown catches (116) than all but six receivers in NFL history, it was surprising he wasn't included in this year's class. But his eight Pro Bowls and tight-end record for touchdown receptions mean he won't wait long.
Pencil him in for next year.
After that, however, it gets complicated. Really complicated.
Former Carolina linebacker Luke Kuechly will be the most decorated in terms of the "alls" -- he was a Pro Bowler every season but his rookie campaign, as well as a consensus All-Pro five times and the 2013 AP Defensive Player of the Year. But he also had his career cut short after eight seasons due to repeated concussions. So he lacks the longevity voters like in their first-ballot inductees.
His resume is similar to that of another linebacker, the 49ers' Patrick Willis, who was just elected after becoming eligible in 2020. Will Keuchly wait that long? Probably not. But he's not a lock to be chosen in his first try, either.
Former Giants' quarterback Eli Manning will bring a serious, prolonged and, in all likelihood, impassioned discussion to the Hall-of-Fame vote. It will be the classic debate of how important "quarterback rings" are vs. career credentials. Manning's two Super Bowl wins over Tom Brady are his calling card for election (he was the game's MVP both times), but his passing statistics and honors (MVPs, All-Pros, Pro Bowls) aren't as numerous as other quarterbacks of his era.
He was a four-time Pro Bowler but never an All-Pro.
Eventually, he'll get his bust in Canton. But I'd bet a lot of money it doesn't happen next year. The debate almost surely will be long and possibly contentious.
There's a lot of substance to guard Marshall Yanda's case, but he'd not only have to leapfrog Jahri Evans, the longtime Saints' guard who was a finalist this year but other finalists at positions not overlooked as often as guard to reach the Hall right away.
That just won't happen.
He could make the Final 15, but he doesn't have the case needed to be a first-ballot guard. The next one will be the Cowboys' Zack Martin, five years after he retires.
Next?
Marshawn "Beast Mode" Lynch will have supporters, as will pass rusher Terrell Suggs, but there are players at their respective positions ahead of them in the queue.
So, back to this year's Top Ten.
Andre Johnson broke the wide-receiver logjam, so it would seem that Torry Holt ... and perhaps Reggie Wayne ... would move up. Because he was a Top Ten finalist and Wayne was not, Holt seems to have more momentum -- as of now. He's been in the Top Ten the past two years, so he's a logical guess.
Mark him down after Gates.
Like Holt, Jared Allen has been in the Top Ten the past two years, too. So, based on that, I think he'd be a reasonable pick for next year's Class.
That's three.
Now, two more. But who?
Darren Woodson and Willie Anderson? Or one, plus Kuechly? Or Wayne, who was in the Top Ten in 2023 but missed this year? Maybe someone else, like running back Fred Taylor? As I said, there are a lot of accomplished players in the mix for next year. All have strong cases, but each also has a box or two that isn't checked ... and that should make decisions exceptionally hard for voters.
Not for me. My final two picks are Willie Anderson and Darren Woodson, making it a clean sweep of this year's Top Ten.
While I think Kuechly was elite -- among the best ever at his position -- it seems likely he may have to wait a year to get his Gold Jacket, with the logic something like this: "Patrick Willis had to wait. Why is Kuechly's case significantly stronger?" I could just as easily be wrong, and he wins his Hall pass right away, but I don't think so.
As you can see, it's going to be a deep group of candidates next year, and good luck to voters sorting them out. They're going to need it.
I don't think that Eli belongs in the HOF. He didn't win a playoff game the last eight years of his career, and his team barely made the Super Bowl in 2011 (if it wasn't for Kyle Williams, or Tony Romo missing a wide open Miles Austin in Week 14).
ReplyDeleteWhen is Steve Wisniewski going to get the call to the Hall? 8 time All Pro. 8 time Pro Bowler. No criteria makes the voting dubious.
ReplyDeleteYeah, his omission is a head-scratcher. He's checks a lot of boxes. With you on this one.
DeleteFrom Brian
ReplyDeleteSome interesting debates with Kuechly, Manning and Lynch coming up to bat. Two out of the three are deserving in my opinion but none of them should be first ballot. I actually believe Lynch should be voted in before Frank Gore, but Gore's longevity and toughness coming out of college knee injuries, should resonate with voters when he is eligible. Is Lynch or Gore as deserving as LeSean McCoy? I believe so, but he will get a long look as well since Shaun Alexander isnt getting his due. If Fred Taylor gets elected, it probably needs to happen soon because in my view, Peterson will be the next first ballot runner ...
Manning's family name will probably get him elected, though he regressed even with the talented but distracted Odell Beckham, helping him out. He needs to wait awhile but I wouldnt be surprised if these young voters put him in first ballot.
Suggs will wait as well but more complete a linebacker as anyone coming out besides Kuechley, who wasnt the pass rusher.
Another clean-up year in my view and I believe ...
Allen
Gates
Woodson
Anderson
Holt
... will get elected next year.