Saturday, September 9, 2017

The Tale of Two Tackles Sources

LOOKING BACK
By John Turney
This is one of those things that doesn't matter a lot, but since the information is out there and used in articles, press releases, Information Guides, Media Guides, etc., we thought we'd take a look at it anyway because there are some interesting differences.

The subject is individual tackles for defensive players. There are really, two sources for this statistic. One is the gamebooks or what used to be called a "play-by-play".  At the end of each of these games books is a tackle chart that denotes who made how many tackles. These go back to 1960 in the AFL (for some teams—not all). They became fairly standardized in 1970 and by 1977 all teams were using them.

Here is an example of an assisted tackle by Ray Lewis and then a solo tackle by him.


Here is the tackle total for that game:
The other source is coaches tallies. These are the numbers that are derived from the coaching staffs from many of the teams grading the film and releasing the information to the team public relations department which in turn releases them in weekly releases and/or yearly media guides.

Here is the tackle total from that same game according to the coaches. They have him with 7 total while the gamebook states five (three solo and two assists).
One would think the more accurate of the two is the coaches stats. But Nick Webster and I have found that the coaches stats are almost always higher in total than the gamebooks. They give out a lot of "assisted" tackles but they are never defined. Therefore, there is no way to compare apples to apples when looking at tackle numbers from team to team unless one uses the gamebooks numbers.

Here are a few examples:


The top chart is from the Ravens 2013 Media Guide and it shows his career tackles (as per the coaches film study to be 2,643. The lower chart is from ESPN.com and they use Stats, LLC. who uses the gamebooks for tackles. Their total is 2,050.

Next example is Brian Urlacher:


The top chart is from the 2012 Bears Media Guide and the lower on is his final season stats, we could not find one with a career total. Nonetheless, 1,179 is his career total when adding in the 2012 tackles to his previous total.

The chart below is from Pro Football Reference.com who, like Fox Sports.com and ESPN.com and NFLGSIS.com use the gamebook statistics and here his total tackles are 1,354.
This chart shows a slightly different total, but similar to Pro Football Reference.com. It's from ESPN.com and we attribute the slight differences to human error and we never really bother to look for the discrepancies.

Next up is London Fletcher. From the 2013 Redskins Media Guide we get a total of 2,450 tackles through 2,012 and from the 2014 Media Guide we add 145 from the chart below the "The Fletch File" to bring him to a total 2,595.


From ESPN.com:

This is a chart from the 2013 Redskins Media Guide. When his 111 tackles from 2013 are added in his career total is 2,040, similar to the 2,032 number in the ESPN.com chart.
Thus, using the gamebooks the total is 2,032, not 2,595.
Finally,  Patrick Willis:
Willis ended with 1,225 tackles according to the coaches stats, with his rookie year of 226. Below are NFLGSIS.com, Fox Sports.com and ESPN.com numbers are taken from gamebooks and give Willis a total of 174 his rookie season.


Now, there is one more wildcard on this and it's Pro Football Focus. They have their own film graders and part of what they do is tally tackles, assists and so on.
For Willis's career here are their totals
The PFF totals are 74 tackles less than the gamebooks and the gamebooks are about 275 less than the coaches totals.

Now these discrepancies go back to the 1960s and 1970s and what is interesting is that it has been consistent through time, the coaches tackles are always higher than the gamebooks. However, what is also interesting is that the coaches data is almost always more accurate in forced fumbles. The coaches have always had the luxury of replaying a play over and over since they do their film grading on Monday. The statisticians have to make up their mind on what happened on a bang-bang play on the spur of the moment. They may get a replay or two in the booth but if the play happened in a crowd then they may miss who forced a fumble altogether. It would just go as a team fumble.

So, we take the good and the bad and learn from it. But the answer to the question of "How many tackles did Ray Lewis have in his career? is "According to who? Gamebooks, his coaches, Pro Football Focus?"

Of those who is most "accurate"?  Well, we prefer the gamebooks, but we take them all with a grain of salt. It's really a stat that can. at times, mean little.

If a defensive team forces a lot of 3-and-outs then they will not have as many opportunities for tackles. If a team has a scheme that allows for a lot of short completions then there will be more opportunities for tackles. What matters is that defenders are good, solid tackles, and don't miss many tackles. Sure, most schemes are designed for middle linebackers to make tackles, that's why Butkus, Nobis, Lambert and all the rest had high totals for their day and it continues until now.

Here is another poignant example. Beginning in 1976 the Broncos published the 'coaches film review' stats in their media guides and did so until recently. The one exception was 1986 when for some reason, they posted the press box numbers, which is the gamebooks or play-by-plays.

In 1984 Steve Busick had 195 tackles with the coach film review as the source. In 1985 he had 81 tackles using the press box stats. In 1986 the numbers were coaches review numbers but Ricky Hunley took Busick's starting spot and he had 164 tackles.

Did Busick make have as many tackles in 1985 than 1984? (He started all 16 games in both seasons). Or was there a difference in the 'accounting method'?

Here are the charts from the 1985, 85, and 87 Media guides.



You can see the difference in the Broncos tackles above. 

The same thing happened in Miami where they credit Steve Towle with 217 tackles, good for the top total in team history for a single-season. Well, the play-by-play shows 181. Still, on a per-game basis (remember there was a 14-game season in 1976) Towle is still number one, so there is that. Oh, and Chambers' 178 tackle total is 158 if one uses play-by-play tackle charts as the source rather than the coaches film review and Ernie Rhone's 171 is 165, which is very close for a tackle chart and coach total. 
For Zach Thomas "real" apples-to-apples totals click here, the same issue exists with him as well.

Below is the list, according to coaches tallies, of the Cowboys career leaders in tackles:


When the gamebook tackles are compiled Woodson ends with 899 total tackles and Randy White totals 854. Jordan played prior to when the gamebooks consistently showed tackles, but he's likely the leading Cowboys tackler, not Woodson.

So, now the information is out there it's up to writers and bloggers to use meaningful tackle totals and when reporting on Lewis or Urlacher at least being aware of the differences in totals depending on the source.

Seattle Seahawks All-Time All-Rookie Team

OPINION
By John Turney

This year we are picking All-Time All-Rookie squads for each of the NFL franchises. Today the Seahawks get our treatment:
Behind Kuehn and Vallos at center are Chris Spencer, 2005, and Jean-Phillipe Darche, 2000, both of whom were All-Rookie choices in their respective rookie years but neither were starters. Darche, in fact, was only a long snapper. Often there are no starters at a particular position and those choosing All-Rookie teams have to fill out the ballots and in this case, Darche and Spencer got the most votes. Darche, however, is also an honorable mention on special teams as he was a snapper on those units for the Seahawks.

Max Unger and Steve Hutchinson are the First-team guards followed by Edwin Bailey and Germain Ifedi. The honorable mentions are Kevin Mawae, 1994, Pete Kendall, 1996, Floyd Wedderburn, 2000, and Matt Joyce, 1995. That's a pretty solid group of rookies. Mawae and Kendall were highly touted rookies but in this instance, we went with Bailey (16 starts) and Ifedi (13 starts) over the former two who did start but slightly fewer times.

Andy Heck, 1989, George Fant, 2016, James Carpenter, 2011, and Russell Okung, 2010 are the honorable mentions at tackle. Walter Jones and Justin Britt were season-long starters and wrapped up the top slots with Roberts and Mattes backing them up.

Pete Metzelaars, 1982, and Travis McNeal, 1989, were both All-Rookie selections but they did not put up the numbers that John Carlson, 2008, and Jerramy Stevens, 2002 did and therefore are regulated to the honorable mention list.

The same is true of the quarterbacks. Mirer and Zorn were All-Rookie and Russell Wilson lost out to Robert Griffin III but Wilson's rookie year was far superior to Mirer and Zorn. Thus we gave the Second-team to Zorn and made Mirer and honorable mention, though really, they could be reversed.

Darrell Jackson, 2000, and Doug Baldwin, 2011, are honorable mentions at receiver.

Jacob Green, 1980, Jeff Bryant, 1982, Bruce Irvin, 2012 and Sam Adams, 1994, were all All-Rookie, though none were stellar all were solid. Irvin was a designated rusher while the rest were starters. Green had 6 sacks, Bryant 3 in a strike-shortened season. People forget that Adams was a defensive end in base defenses his rookie year, moving inside in nickel/dime situations. Frank Clark is our honorable mention for his All-Rookie season of 2015.

Steve Niehaus, 1976, and Manu Tuiasosopo, 1979, are the First-team picks at defensive tackle. Niehaus had 9½ sacks and was All-Rookie and Tuiasosopo had 8 sacks and also was All-Rookie. Robert Hardy, 1979, and Brandon Mebane, 2007, edged honorable mention and All-Rookie pick Cortez Kennedy, 1990, who was a rotational player his rookie year.

Bobby Wagner, 2012, is the First-team middle linebacker followed by Lofa Tatupu, 2005. Tatupu was a Pro Bowler and totaled 104 tackles, 4 sacks, 3 interceptions (one for a score) and 10 passes defensed. Wagner, though edged him out with 139 tackles and 3 picks and on a better all-around defense. The honorables are All-Rookies Terry Beason, 1977, and Brian Bosworth, 1987.

K.J. Wright, 2011, and LeRoy Hill, 2005, are the top outside 'backers and behind them are Bruce Scholtz, 1982, and Keith Butler, 1978.

The honorable mentions at outside linebacker are Terry Wooden, 1990 (All-Rookie), Anthony Simmons, 1998 (All-Rookie) Tony Woods, 1987 and Aaron Curry, 2009. Curry was a bust for his career, but in his rookie season, he did some good things.

Brandon Browner, 2011, and Richard Sherman, 2011 are the starting corners. Browner was a Pro Bowler and Sherman was All-Rookie. We choose Marcus Trufant, 2003, Orlando Watters, 1994,
Shawn Springs, 1997, Ken Lucas, 2001, and Carlton Gray, 1993 (All-Rookie) as honorable mentions

Kenny Easley, 1981, and Earl Thomas, 2010, are the safeties backed up by Ken Hamlin, 2003, and John Harris, 1978.  All-Rookie choice Robert Blackmon, 1990, is one honorable mention as is Michael Boulware, 2004.

John Kasay, 1991, Rian Lindell, 2000, Josh Brown, 2003 (All-Rookie) and Norm Johnson, 1982, is the ranking of the rookie kickers.

Ryan Plackemeier, 2006, and Ruben Rodriguez, 1987 (both All-Rookie) are the punters.

Bobby Joe Edmonds, 1986 is the First-team punt returner and Joey Galloway, 1995, is next. The honorable mentions are Tyler Lockett, 2015, and Charlie Rogers, 1999

Tyler Lockett, 2015 is top dog at kick returner and Maurice Morris, 2002 backs him up and Chris Warren, 1990(All-Rookie) is the lone honorable mention.

Fredd Young, 1984 and Rufus Porter, 1988 take the core special teams honors. The honorables include the aforementioned Jean-Phillipe Darche, 2000, Isaiah Kacyvenski, also 2000, and Niko Koutouvides, 2004. Kacyvenski had 16 special team tackles and Kacyvenski had 15.

Agree of diagree? Let us know in the comments section below.

Friday, September 8, 2017

Tampa Bay Buccaneers All-Time All-Rookie Team

OPINION
By John Turney
This year we are picking All-Time All-Rookie squads for each of the NFL franchises. This iteration is the Bucs:
The pickings were very slim at center, Mayberry was the top but he only started a game. A couple of the top centers began as guards. And the guards were as deep as the centers were shallow. In addition to the First- and Second-teamers in the chart the list of honorable mentions is long—Greg Roberts, 1979, Ray Snell, 1980, Davin Joseph, 2006, Jim Pyne, 1995, Aaron Sears, 2007, Patrick Omameh, 2014, Dan Buenning, 2005 and Ali Marpet, 2015 all make our list. All were starters for the majority of their rookie seasons and most made one or more of the various All-Rookie teams at the time.

Paul Gruber and Donovan Smith were both excellent as rookies and were All-Rookie Heller and Walker were, too, but didn;t rate quote as high. There were four honorable mentions at tackle: Jeremy Trueblood, 2006, Charles McRae, 1991, Donald Penn, 2007 and Steve Young, 1976. Young was a Second-team All-Rookie pick on a very poor expansion team.

Four Buccaneer quarterbacks have been named All-Rookie:  Jameis Winston in 2015, Mike Glennon in 2013 and also Doug Williams in 1978 and Vinny Testaverde in 1987. Winston was edged out for Offensive Rookie of the Year by Todd Gurley but he's still the top rookie quarterback in Buc history. Glennon is the Second-team pick and Williams and Testaverde are honorable mentions.

 After the four running backs in the above chart, we also want to mention Eric Rhett's All-Rookie season of 1994. he gets the lone honorable mention.

Wide receiver, however, has four honorables:  Mark Carrier, 1987, Lawrence Dawsey, 1991
Kevin House, 1980, and Reidel Anthony, 1997. All but House were named All-Rookie in their respective first seasons.

Backing up the top four defensive ends are honorable mentions Regan Upshaw, 1996, Noah Spence, 2016, Chidi Ahanotu, 1993 (who also played some tackle) and Eric Curry, 1993.  

The honorable mentions for defensive tackle are Warren Sapp, 1995, and Akeem Spence, 2007. Sapp was named All-Rookie but so were three of the four picks ahead of him:  Santana Dotson, 1992, Lee Roy Selmon, 1976, Gerald McCoy, 2010, Mark Wheeler, 1992.

Dotson had 10 sacks as a rookie three-technique and Selmon had 5 even though he missed some time, but overall he performed well as the NFL's first three-technique in 1976. Wheeler was a shade tackle in Tampa's flop 4-3 in 1992 and he performed very well alongside Dotson. McCoy started more games than Sapp and got the edge for that reasons. Their stats were just too close.

Sidney Coleman was an All-Rookie choice in 1988 and he's the lone honorable mention behind Kwon Alexander and Mason Foster. Alexander made 93 tackles, had 3 sacks, 2 forced fumbles and 9 passes defensed to go with his two interceptions and Mason Foster's stats were not far behind.

Lavonte David, 2012, and Hugh Green were stellar their rookie seasons as was Derrick Brooks, 1995. We went ahead and tied Lewis and Browner since it really was too close to call.

Donnie Abraham, 1996 and Ricky Reynolds, 1987 are the cornerbacks backed up by Rod Jones, 1986 and Johnthan Banks, 2013. Vernon Hargreaves, 2016, and Aqib Talib (2008) are honorable mentions.

Mark Barron, 2012. and Tanard Jackson, 2007 are the standout safeties followed by Tony Covington and Marty Carter, ( both for 1991). All-Rookie selections Craig Swoope, 1986, and Cedrick Brown, 1977 are the two backups.

Backup up the kickers are Patrick Murray, 2014, and All-Rookie Roberto Aguayo, 2016. (Yes, he was All-Rookie). The honorable mention returners are Karl Williams for 1996 and Charles Wilson for his 1990 season. John McLaughlin was an All-Rookie selection in 1999 but to us he didn't stand out as much as Shelton Quarles and  Barrett Ruud.
Agree or disagree with any of the selections? Let us know in the comments section below.

Thursday, September 7, 2017

Baltimore Ravens All-Time All-Rookie Team

OPINION
By John Turney

This year we are picking All-Time All-Rookie squads for each of the NFL franchises. This iteration is the Ravens:
Since 1996, the first year of the Baltimore Ravens, likely no team has had more good rookies. The players on our Second-team would qualify for the First-team on several franchises.

Jonathan Ogden is a HOF left tackle but he began his career as a guard. Marshal Yanda is an All-Pro guard but began as a tackle and played well. Ben Grubbs was All-Rookie in 2007 as was Michael OherJoe Flacco was 11-5 as a starter in 2008 and led the Ravens to the playoffs. Jamal Lewis rushed for 1364 yards as a rookie and was part of the 2000 Super Bowl Champions.

Defensively Ray Lewis made 110 tackles and 15 of them were run/pass stuffs and that number unofficially led the NFL. Terrell Suggs was the 2003 AP Defensive Player of the Year and totaled 12 sacks and 5 forced fumbles. Haloti Ngata was an All-Rookie choice in 2006 as he anchored the Ravens run defense from his shade tackle position. Timmy Jernigan was an All-Rookie selection in 2014 as was C.J. Mosley.

Ed Reed and Dawan Landry were All-Rookie choices in 2002 and 2006, respectively. Landry had three sacks and picked off five passes. Reed also picked off five passes and blocked a pair of punts.

Zastudill was All-Rookie but Koch had the better season and thus was rewarded with the First-team slot. Sams and Figurs also were All-Rookie but also had the top seasons as well and were First-team choices.

Agree or disagree? Let us know in the comments section below.


Wednesday, September 6, 2017

Jacksonville Jaguars All-Time All-Rookie Team

OPINION
By John Turney
This year we are picking All-Time All-Rookie squads for each of the NFL franchises. This iteration is the Jaguars:
As rookies Meester, Linder, Boselli and Monore were particularly solid. And behind the second team were honorable mentions Will Rackley, 2011, Eben Britton, 2009, and Khalif Barnes, 2005.

We put Leftwich first and decided that Bortles and Gabbert's rookie seasons to too close to separate so we gave them both Second-team honors. None stood out and none were awful. Just mediocre.

Fred Taylor rushed for over 1200 yards and 14 touchdowns and was All-Rookie and Maurice Jones-Drew, as a rotation back gained over 900 yards and scored 13 touchdowns on the ground.

Yannick Ngakoue had an excellent rookie year as an edge rusher as did Tony Brackens in 1996, though he didn't start he played in nickel situations as a defensive end and even as a middle linebacker in dime situations.

Telvin Smith and Kevin Hardy were near-Pro Bowl quality as rookies. Hardy had 88 tackles, 5.5 sacks and forced 3 fumbles as a rookie while Smith had 104 tackles and 7.5 stuffs. Marcus Stroud, 2001, is an honorable mention is a very deep defensive tackle pool.

Agree or disagree with our choices? Post in the comments section below.

Carolina Panthers All-Time All-Rookie Team

OPINION
By John Turney
This year we are picking All-Time All-Rookie squads for each of the NFL franchises. This iteration is the Carolina Panthers:
Jordan Gross was stellar his rookie season, according to Proscout, Inc., he had scores similar to Anthony Munoz's rookie season in 1980.  Julius Peppers was the AP Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2002 and Luke Kuechly won the same award in 2012. Cam Newton was the Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2011.

Kris Jenkins was solid as a rookie and the following season he was All-Pro. No rookie has ever held the kicking job for the Panthers, who began their NFL run in 1995.

Norbert Davidds-Garrido, 1996 and Jeff Otah, 2008, are honorable mentions as tackles. Lester Towns, 2000, is an MLB honorable mention. Richard Marshall, 2006, and Daryl Worley, 2016, are also honorable mentions for their rookie seasons.

Agree or disagree? Comment below.

Houston Texans All-Time All-Rookie Team

OPINION
By John Turney
Last year we chose All-Time Career Years for all the NFL franchises. This Fall we will choose a similar squad composed of rookie seasons for each team. We are starting with the Houston Texans:
We were not able to find a center that played enough as a rookie to be considered, same with kickers. We could only find one rookie punter as well. Depth is also thin at defensive tackle.

However, there were some very solid players for the Texans, among then Brian Cushing who was a Pro Bowler and a Second-team All-Pro in 2009. He made 133 tackles, four sacks, four picks, 10 passes defenses, two forced fumbles and a safety—all career highs.

Amobi Okoye had a good rookie season with 5.5 sacks and DeMeco Ryans was excellent as well. he totaled 155 tackles and 3.5 sacks and was the AP Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2006.

Agree or disagree? Comment below.