Sunday, October 16, 2022

Judgements VI

 By Clark Judge 
Josh Allen
So that settles it.

With Buffalo’s 24-20 defeat of Kansas City Sunday, two questions were answered:: 1)  The Bills – not Kansas City – are the team to beat in the AFC, and 2) quarterback Josh Allen – not Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, you name it  – is your early MVP favorite.

Granted, it’s six weeks, and the Bills beat Kansas City a year ago in October. But something feels different about this Bills. They’re on a mission to avenge last year’s playoff loss, and on Sunday they took a giant step.

With the victory, they moved one game ahead of Kansas City, which hosted the AFC championship game the past four years. In reality, however, they moved two games ahead because of the head-to-head tiebreaker … which means they could be home for the playoffs in January.

As I said, it’s early. But Sunday’s contest felt like a statement game, and the Bills made the statement. They were the better team, and Allen was the better quarterback. Plus, where the Buffalo defense last year crumbled in the clutch, it held firm nine months later – intercepting Patrick Mahomes twice, including a game clincher with just under a minute left.

“Wow,” gushed former quarterback and CBS analyst Tony Romo, “it’s like you’re always trying to overcome. (Michael) Jordan had to overcome the Pistons.  If feels like that. Buffalo’s had to overcome Kansas City.

“They’ve been so close, and now, all of a sudden, it’s like: Oh, my goodness, they might actually be the team to beat. Kansas City’s been there for so long.”

Then there’s Allen, the heart and soul of the team. Last week’s Vegas odds had him just ahead of Mahomes and Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson in the league MVP race. That lead widened Sunday, with Jackson self-destructing vs. the Giants and Mahomes throwing critical interceptions vs. Buffalo. Meanwhile, Allen threw for 329 yards and three TDs – including the go-ahead score on a dart to tight end Dawson Knox – and ran for another 32.

But to appreciate his value, you must look inside the Bills’ game-winning drive. They drove 76 yards on 12 plays, with Allen completing five of six passes and running four times for another 19 yards. In all, he was responsible for all but one yard of the drive, and isn’t that how we define MVPs? It was on this afternoon.

SUNDAY SCHOOL: FIVE THINGS WE LEARNED:

1.       Philadelphia is better than advertised. Prior to Sunday, Dallas defensive lineman Demarcus Lawrence questioned the abilities of Philadelphia quarterback Jalen Hurts, saying “we don’t know how good he is … because he hasn’t played (the Cowboys) yet.” Well, now he has, and now we all know how good Hurts is. He’s a legit MVP candidate, joining the crowd behind Buffalo’s Josh Allen. In fairness, Lawrence wasn’t alone in questioning Hurts and the Eagles. Then they hit Sunday Night Football, and now the word is out: They’re a complete team, solid on both sides of the ball.

2.       Zappe Fever has gripped New England. Did someone say, “Quarterback controversy?” I know, starters aren’t supposed to lose their jobs because of injuries. But look what’s happened since rookie Bailey Zappe took over for the injured Mac Jones and Brian Hoyer. He won his two starts, completed 73 percent of his passes, had four more TDs (4) than interceptions and put up passer ratings of 100 or more in all three of his appearances.

3.       Jerry Jones won’t be going to New York. He once said he’d walk there for a quarterback controversy, but, relax, Jerry.  There’s no controversy. Not anymore there’s not.  Cooper Rush lost his first game as a Cowboys’ starter, failing to make the big plays needed to catch Philadelphia, and the debate is over. Rush is 4-1 this year and 5-1 in his career, but he won’t supplant Dak Prescott. With Detroit and Chicago next up (both in Dallas), there’s no urgency for Dak to return. But he will return … as …the … starter.

4.       There’s no favorite in the AFC North. Look it up. Nobody has a winning record, Baltimore just blew another fourth-quarter lead and Mitch Trubisky is back in charge in Pittsburgh. So who’s left? Uh-huh. The Bengals, and they won three of their last four. Go ahead. Grab a blindfold and make a pick. It’s that wide open.

5.       The New York Jets are nobody’s punchline. Not anymore they’re not. Few blinked when they hammered Miami and its third-string quarterback last weekend, but burying the Packers in Green Bay? That’s altogether different. The Packers had been 18-1 at Lambeau with Aaron Rodgers, winning their last 11 there, and the Pack was 7-0 vs. the AFC under Matt LaFleur. But those streaks ended Sunday. We knew the Jets had a solid defense. What we didn’t know was who would drive the offense. Breece Hall, come on down. The past two weeks, the rookie running back has 318 yards in offense and two TDs.

THIRD AND 20

1.       Pete Rozelle yearned for parity in the NFL, and it looks as if we have it … or do we? There’s a fine line between parity and mediocrity, but with 22 of the 32 teams at 3-3 or below – including three divisions where nobody is above .500 – it's not hard to make the call.

2.       Tampa Bay has more issues than Tom & Giselle. It was Brady who earlier this month said, “There’s a lot of bad football from what I watch.” He should know. He watches it every Sunday. Once upon a time, the Bucs were considered a Super Bowl threat. Now they’re little more than an ordinary stuck in neutral. It’s one thing to lose to the Steelers in Pittsburgh; it’s quite another to lose to the Steelers when they’re without Mikah Fitzpatrick, three cornerbacks and are forced to turn to Mitch Trubisky at quarterback.

3.       Green Bay looks broken. The Packers were a trendy preseason Super Bowl pick, but the Packers are a mess. The Jets just put up 179 yards rushing on them, one week after Saquon Barkley shredded them for 106 scrimmage yards. Plus league MVP Aaron Rodgers can’t make plays with a cadre of young receivers, and the offense seems out of sorts. Result: They just went 0-2 vs. New York (Jets and Giants), have lost as many games (3) as they did in the first seventeen weeks and are two games behind Minnesota in a division they were supposed to own (just ask A-Rod).

4.       Christian McCaffrey’s price just went up. He had 158 of Carolina’s 203 scrimmage yards.

5.       How valuable is T.J. Watt to Pittsburgh? Sunday’s defeat of Tampa Bay was the Steelers’ first without Watt. The Steelers had been 0-8.

6.        And that, people, is why Buffalo went after Von Miller. He had two of the Bills’ three sacks and created the pressure that led to Taron Johnson’s game-clinching interception. Remember: It was a defensive brain cramp that last season cost the Bills a playoff victory over K.C. Determined not to let it happen again, they signed Miller. Smart.

7.        Tennessee’s Mike Vrabel is right: There must be more consistency with officials. Latest example: An obvious tripping call vs. the Chiefs’ Chris Jones that was missed. As the Bills’ Josh Allen started to escape the pocket, Jones reached out with his left foot and tripped him. Easy to call … except it wasn’t … despite Allen’s protests. Upon further review, Mike Vrabel needs to be heard.

8.       Ravens’ fans should be angry. That’s the third time in six games where Baltimore blew a double-digit lead.

9.       So Steve Wilks dropped his first game as Carolina’s interim coach. Big deal. I like what I saw …and what I saw was he defused a potentially explosive sideline situation by banishing wide receiver Robbie Anderson to the locker room. In other words, Wilks acted like a head coach. Don’t be surprised if Carolina moves on from Anderson.

10.   After Joe Burrow was sacked a league-high 70 times last season (including the playoffs), the Bengals overhauled their offensive line. The intention was good, but early results weren’t. He was dropped 13 times in the first two games. But since then?  Try eight sacks in four games, three of which they won. Connect the dots.

11.   “Near perfect” is not a description often associated with Atlanta’s Marcus Mariota, but it applied vs. the 49ers. He hit 13 of 14 passes, threw two TDs and ran for another vs. the league’s No. 1 defense. Granted, the 49ers were missing key starters – including Nick Bosa – but c’mon, guys. It’s Atlanta.

12.    Apparently, the Louisiana Superdome IS Ja’Marr Chase’s house. In his two games there, he has 16 catches for 353 yards and four TDs, including the game-winning score vs. the Saints.

13.   It wasn’t that long ago that the Rams’ Sean McVay promised to get Allen Robinson “more involved” in the offense.  On Sunday, he delivered – drawing up plays that had Robinson with more catches (5) for more yards (63) than anytime this season. He also scored for the second time.

14.   History majors, pay attention: The last time the Jets started 3-0 on the road was 2010 That’s also the last year the Jets went to the playoffs.

15.   Jacksonville is cursed. After hammering the Colts the last two times they met by a combined 50-11 score, they lose in Indianapolis. The reason: Location, location, location. It was the Jaguars’ 14th straight road loss to a division opponent.

16.    More proof that it’s never been easier to play quarterback: Matt Ryan on Sunday passed Dan Marino for seventh place on the NFL’s list of all-time passing yards. Now the question: Whom do you choose first for your pick-up team: Ryan or Marino? Exactly.

17.    The league’s lone unbeaten coach, Philadelphia’s Nick Sirianni should be an easy choice as early frontrunner for Coach of the Year. But it’s just as easy to make a case for the Giants’ Brian Daboll, too. In six weeks, he has more victories (5) than the Giants had all last season (4). Plus, he just knocked off Baltimore, which was 19-7 in road games with Lamar Jackson, and shocked Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay a week earlier. Then there’s this: At 5-1, the Giants are off to their best start since 2009.

18.    There’s more to New England’s story than Bailey Zappe. There’s defense. The Patriots haven’t allowed a rushing touchdown all season.

19.   Not sure who gets more free cheese steaks in Philadelphia at Tony Luke’s – Sirianni or the Phillies’ Rob Thomson.

20.   Tough call for the back page of the New York Post. The Giants, Jets and Yankees all won.

SUNDAY’S GOLD JACKET STATS

That was Tom Brady’s first loss to a rookie quarterback (Kenny Pickett) since 2014. He had been 12-0 since.

Courtesy of ESPN’s Rich Cimini: The Jets are the second team in the Super Bowl era to have a winning record through its first six games despite being an underdog in all six games. Cleveland was the first in 2001,

The Eagles’ 99 second-quarter points are the most in NFL history through six games, breaking the mark of 82 set by the 1980 L.A. Rams.

From NFL Research: Stafford’s Pick-Six was the 29th of his career, tying him with Dan Marino for the second most since 1950.

SUNDAY’S GOLD JACKET QUOTES

“We just can’t keep beating ourselves up because that’s what it is .It is not our opponent”-- Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson.

“You’re so much better than the way your (expletive) playing.” – Tampa Bay quarterback Tom Brady caught on camera to his offensive line.

“(We) just need to simplify some things, and maybe that will help us get back on track.” – Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers.

2 comments:

  1. Clark, I am really enjoying your weekly post-mortems....you write: "16. More proof that it’s never been easier to play quarterback: Matt Ryan on Sunday passed Dan Marino for seventh place on the NFL’s list of all-time passing yards. Now the question: Whom do you choose first for your pick-up team: Ryan or Marino? Exactly"......so a key followup question is: "What does this indicate about the current state of NFL football?".....EXACTLY.

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  2. “In the Super Bowl era?” I judge this information to be incomplete. Expect this sort of short view from ESPN, but would not expect it to be given air space on a site devoted to pro football history. Why is this a big deal? Because the 1962 Dallas Cowboys were another team with a winning record after six games despite being an underdog in all six games.

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