Friday, January 17, 2025

The 2024 'Allmost All-Joe' Team

By John Turney 
Vinny DiTrani (l), Larry Weisman (r)
In 1970, Bergen (N.J.) Record columnist Vinny DiTrani began a unique tradition that would last over 40 years: He initiated the "Allmost All-Pro Team" (yes, with two Ls). His goal? To "give a little recognition to men who, for one reason or another, missed out on the real honors."

By "real honors," DiTrani referred to Pro Bowl and All-Pro selections, accolades that eluded deserving players.

Fast-forward 22 years, and former USA Today writer Larry Weisman started a similar tradition with the "All-Joe Team." His focus was on "players who got lost in the shuffle this season." They were the unsung heroes, players who excelled without fanfare, laboring in the shadows of more celebrated teammates. 

Weisman maintained the tradition for 22 years.

Both concepts are what we might now call teams of Pro Bowl and All-Pro "snubs." So, why does this matter? Because today’s column pays homage to DiTrani and Weisman. Borrowing their ideas, I’ve created a team of 2024’s standout non-Pro Bowlers and non-All-Pros -- what I’m calling the "Allmost All-Joe Team."

Like DiTrani and Weisman, I’m skipping AP first-or-second-team All-Pros and Pro Bowlers. And, just like them, I’m not rigid about roster size. If more players than a starting 11 deserve recognition, they’re in.

Here, then, is my 2024 "Allmost All-Joe" Team —

OFFENSE

WIDE RECEIVERS—Malik Nabers, Giants; Ladd McConkey, Chargers; Tee Higgins, Bengals; Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seahawks.

All four of these receivers do special things, with a few playing numerous snaps in the slot. This year three wide receivers were "chalk" picks for All-Pro (Ja'Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson and Amon-Ra St. Brown),  but these four had years that should be recognized.

Even though Nabers missed a couple of games, he still recorded 109 receptions for 1,204 yards and seven touchdowns, while McConkey, meanwhile, caught 82 passes for 1,149 yards. Both are rookies and remarkable rookies at that.

Tee Higgins missed five games, but when he didn't he made things happen. While people were double-covering Ja'Mar Chase, the 6-foot-4, 219-pound Higgins was getting open and catching 10 touchdown passes. 

Smith-Njigba reached triple digits in receptions with an even 100 for 1,130 yards, and most seemed to come at key times in games. 

TIGHT END—Tucker Kraft, Packers, and Jonnu Smith, Dolphins.

Kraft is an ascending player. It would be no surprise to see him at a Pro Bowl soon. Good hands. Good after the catch. Good overall.

It may surprise some people that Smith caught more passes for more touchdowns than Tyreek Hill. Plus, he trailed Hill by just 75 receiving yards. After Tua Tagovailoa's return from IR, Smith was his go-to guy.

Tua missed six games in which Smith was an afterthought, averaging 2.3 catches a game and scoring only once. But when the star quarterback played, Smith was a highlight reel, scoring seven of his eight touchdowns and averaging 6.7 receptions per game. 

TACKLES—Taylor Decker, Lions; Zach Tom, Packers; Spencer Brown, Bills.

Decker has always been good. Maybe never great, but always good. Nevertheless, he's never gotten postseason mentions in any season except for 2016 when he was All-Rookie. But since then? Crickets. Yet unsung guys like Decker are always part of great teams. Decker may just be the player who ends his career never being an All-Pro or Pro Bowler but who will be fondly remembered by fans, teammates and coaches.

Right tackles Tom and Brown are both young pros with bright futures. Tom is a nimble-type tackle, listed at 6-feet-4, 304 pounds, and Brown, a rangy guy (6-feet-8) who's powerful.

Decker and Brown have teammates who are All-Pro or Pro Bowlers, so they're relegated to the shadows. But they shine on the Allmost All-Joe. Tom may get his due sometime soon, as will Brown. Both are young. 

GUARDS—Peter Skoronski, Titans; Robert Hunt, Panthers; Kevin Dotson, Rams.

In his second season, Skoronski played 100 percent of the Titans' offensive snaps and was one of the few bright spots on a woeful Titans' team. Hunt and Dotson did yeoman's work for their teams.

CENTER—Tyler Biadasz, Commanders.

Biadasz got one AP All-Pro vote, and he may have been the second-best center in the NFL. He's the leader of a veteran offensive line that protects the next Offensive Rookie of the Year, Jayden Daniels.

QUARTERBACK—Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers.

The former number-one overall draft pick threw for 4,500 yards and 41 touchdowns. Not so long ago, that would be an MVP season. Now? It will have to be an Allmost All-Joe year. He led the Buccaneers to the playoffs and is becoming the player the Browns thought they had when they took him at the top of the 2018 draft.

FULLBACK—Scott Matlock, Chargers.

Offense, defense, Matlock does it all. He's new to the fullback position but played it well this year. Because there's only one slot per conference for a Pro Bowl fullback and because the position is highly competitive, some players are automatically left out. Matlock is one of those players.

RUNNING BACKS—Bijan Robinson, Falcons, Kyren Williams, Rams; David Montgomery, Lions

Robinson ran for 1,456 yards, scored 14 touchdowns and caught 61 passes for 431 more yards. Yet he didn't get a Pro Bowl invite. He also didn't get a single All-Pro vote. Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry's historic years sucked the oxygen out of that room. Never fear, Allmost All-Joe is here.

Williams is a grinder. He ran for 1,299 yards and 14 TDs. Plus, he had two more scores on passes from Matthew Stafford. But he didn't get much notice, either.

I'm also picking David Montgomery. No, he didn't get 1,000 yards (he ran for 775), but he split time with the dynamic Jahmyr Gibbs. So his role was different. Gibbs was the breakaway guy; Montgomery was the pounder who protected late-game leads, and he served that role well.

DEFENSE

EDGE—George Karlaftis, Chiefs, and Gregory Rousseau, Bills.

Karlaftis benefits from playing next to Chris Jones, but he creates opportunities for Jones, too. He's a technically proficient pass rusher who seems to make plays when they count. He finished the season with eight sacks and tied for third in the league with 28 quarterback hits.

Solid is what you'd call Rousseau. This year he made 53 tackles and had eight sacks. He also had nine lead-tackles for losses on running backs. He tied for seventh in the NFL in quarterback hits, forced three fumbles, deflected three passes and fell on a loose fumble. In other words, he filled the stat boxes.

INTERIOR—Grover Stewart, Colts; Kobie Turner, Rams; Zach Sieler, Dolphins.

Stewart is a run-plugging nose tackle who had nine lead-tackles for losses on run plays and 74 total stops. Among all defensive tackles, Turner was among the best at generating pressure while being double-teamed. Yet, despite the extra attention, he had eight sacks.

Seiler just made plays. He played defensive end in Miami's 3-4 base defense and tackle in its nickel. But he was in the middle of most plays, getting one of his 10 sacks or batting down a pass. The Dolphins had a down year, but Sieler didn't.

LINEBACKERS—Robert Spillane, Raiders; Daiyan Henley, Chargers; Kyle Van Noy, Ravens.

Spillane was third in the NFL in tackles, had a pair of sacks and two interceptions. After Maxx Crosby, he was a man alone in the middle of the Raiders' defense.'

The Chargers appreciated the emergence of Henley, who became a starter in his second season, and so did their fans. He was noticeable in all of his games.

The edge linebacker on the Allmost All-Joe is Van Noy. In his career, he often played both inside and outside linebacker. These days, he's mostly getting after quarterbacks as an edge 'backer for the Ravens, and the results speak for themselves: He had a career-high 12-1/2 sacks

CORNERBACKS—Darius Slay, Eagles, Deommodore Lenoir, 49ers; Mike Hilton, Bengals.

Slay may not be as young as he once was, but he can still play. As a slot corner, Hilton made 12 tackles for losses, nine on run plays and three on pass plays. The Bengals' defense really struggled but Hilton didn't. He had a good year.

SAFETIES—Josh Metellus, Minnesota; C.J. Gardner-Johnson;  Jaylen McCollough, Rams.

Metellus is a game-wrecker. A key cog in Brian Flores' defense, he plays safety, slot and linebacker. So he covers and blitzes. In short, he does it all.

What you want in a ball-hawking safety is a guy like C.J. Gardner-Johnson, who tied his career high with six interceptions. After playing in Detroit last year (an injury-shortened season), he returned to Philadelphia and led Vic Fangio's elite defense.

McCollough's name here might raise a few eyebrows, but he plays a vital role in the Rams' dime defense -- a package that was successful this year. In limited snaps, he made 43 tackles and picked off four passes -- taking one to the house -- and served as a safety when he was called on. The guy was a menace to offenses.

SPECIAL TEAMS

KICKER—Cameron Dicker, Chargers.

He could've been All-Pro in another year, but with the seasons that Pro Bowlers Chris Boswell (Steelers) and Brandon Aubrey (Cowboys) had, it was easy to get lost in the shuffle.

PUNTER—Tress Way, Commanders.

As steady as the monuments in Washington. He's been a Pro Bowler twice before, but it's been a couple of years. When you look at his net punting numbers year after year, he's always among the leaders. One problem: There always seems to be one or two guys ahead of him. So they got the glory. He did not.

RETURNER—DeAndre Carter, Chicago.

He's always been good, but he went largely unnoticed this season when postseason honors were handed out.

SPECIAL TEAMS—Feleipe Franks, Carolina.

What could be better than to mention a quarterback who covers kicks and punts? That's what Franks now does for a living. A perfect guy for Allmost All-Joe.

Pro Football Journal 2024 NFL Awards

 By John Turney 
Lamar Jackson (l) and Myles Garrett (r)

Two thousand and twenty-four was not an easy year to pick NFL awards, as there were no clear winners in many categories. Most had at least two strong candidates and reasonable people could have picked either one.

But here our best effort:

Most Valuable PlayerLamar Jackson, QB, Ravens

Offensive Player of the YearSaquon Barkley, RB, Eagles

Defensive Player of the YearMyles Garrett, DE, Browns

Offensive Rookie of the YearJayden Daniels, QB, Commanders

Defensive Rookie of the YearJared Verse, Edge, Rams

Comeback Player of the YearJ.K. Dobbins, RB, Chargers

Most Improved Player of the Year—Zack Baun, LB, Eagles

Coach of the YearDan Quinn, Commanders

***************************************
The MVP race came down to Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen of the Bills—a near coin toss. Ultimately, Jackson’s late-season surge gave him the edge in our view. Now, it’s up to the AP and PFWA voters to decide if they see it the same way.

The Offensive Player of the Year was another tight contest, this time between Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry of the Ravens. Both were deserving, but we gave the nod to Barkley by the narrowest of margins. Barkley was the better receiver and hitting a magical number like "2,000" in rushing yards while sitting the last game of the season does catch the eye.

For Defensive Player of the Year, Myles Garrett's consistent dominance and impact sealed the decision. According to Trench Warfare, Garrett led the league in "Quality Pressures," a metric analyzing pressures based on their game-changing value. He also ranked second in "Quality Sacks," following the same methodology for sacks. 

Watching Garrett play, it was evident that he disrupted offenses week after week, often facing double teams and still delivering. 

Though Patrick Surtain was a strong contender, Garrett’s influence was undeniable, earning him our award. Zack Baun also received consideration. Trey Hendrickson, the Bengals' edge rusher had another terrific year and we took a close look. 

The Offensive Rookie of the Year came down to Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix. Both led their teams to the playoffs, but Daniels’ consistency throughout the season gave him the edge, while Nix’s late-season surge made it a closer call than people might have thought in November.

Defensively, Quinyon Mitchell was a standout, but Rams edge rusher Jared Verse took the honor. While his sack totals weren’t eye-popping, Verse generated an impressive volume of pressures, ranking third in the league in "Quality Pressures." Moreover, HOW the pressures looked was often stunning. It had to be stunning for some offensive tackles whose knees he bucked with his bull rush. 

For Comeback Player of the Year, Joe Burrow made a strong case, but J.K. Dobbins’ return from an Achilles tear—after playing just one game last season—stood out. Dobbins’ return to form was a more compelling comeback story than Burrow's. Aaron Rodgers was also considered but didn’t perform at the same level post-injury. He came back but came back average --for him. 

The Most Improved Player, an award recognized by the PFWA but not the AP, was an easy choice: Zach Baun. After being a part-time role player with the Saints, Baun transformed with his new team into a versatile, all-around force on defense.

Finally, the Coach of the Year decision came down to Jim Harbaugh of the Chargers and Dan Quinn of the Commanders. Both led remarkable comeback seasons for their respective teams, but Quinn dug his out of a bigger hole.

Wednesday, January 15, 2025

Will Marshal Yanda Get His Gold Jacket Right Away?

By John Turney 
It's not surprising that Baltimore Ravens' All-Pro guard Marshal Yanda is a finalist for the Pro Football Hall of Fame in his first year of eligibility. But when the Hall's board of selectors meets this month, it would be surprising if he's inducted ... and not because he's doesn't have a good case.

No, it may because of the position he plays -- guard.

Of the 13 modern-era offensive linemen enshrined on their first attempt, only three primarily have been guards -- Gene Upshaw, John Hannah and Larry Allen. One other -- Bruce Matthews -- played a significant part of his career as a guard but played eight of his 17 seasons at center or tackle.

If you count him, that's four.

Now compare that to the seven tackles who've been first-ballot Hall-of-Famers. Theoretically, the two should be equal. There are as many guards as tackles on a football field. But, as the numbers indicate, equal they're not. Yet, when Yanda retired, his coach called him a "first-ballot player." Others at the time did, too.

So can he beat the odds and become the fourth pure guard to reach Canton on his first try?

Let's explore.

First, Yanda did play some at tackle. So did Larry Allen. But it wasn't enough time not to consider him a guard. Plus, there were others who played guard but spent the majority of their careers at other positions, such as Hall-of-Famers Jim Parker and Forrest Gregg. So Yanda is ... and should be considered ... a guard, and, as such, he was voted to the NFL's all-decade team for the 2010s.

That's a good start when looking at a player's dominance. It means when Hall voters submitted their all-decade ballots, Yanda's name was on the majority of them ... as in one of the best.

Yanda was an All-Pro five times (twice by consensus) and went to eight Pro Bowls—the same number as Upshaw. And, like Upshaw, he played on a Super Bowl championship team.

Hmmm, All-Pro and a winner ... as in one of the best.

But Pro Bowls are not always an indication of the best players. After all, each conference selects three guards, so it's more a list of the top six -- or eight, if someone is hurt and replaced. Consensus All-Pros are a better barometer. They traditionally mean a player is one of the top two guards on at least two of the three recognized teams. Twice Yanda reached that level, and in three other seasons he made at least one of them.

This translates into Yanda being one of the very best.

But there is more. Consider what his opponents and teammates think. In the NFL's annual poll of players for its "NFL's Top 100" program, Yanda four times was named the NFL's highest-ranking guard.

Highest-ranking ... as in the best.

"He's technical, he's tough, he's strong and he's a monster," said the Packers' Pro Bowl defensive lineman, Mike Daniels.

Rams' defensive tackle Michael Brockers, on the other hand, was more impressed with his Yanda's intelligence.

"It's a mind game with him," he said. "You're playing checkers. and he's playing chess."

Then there's Packers' Pro Bowl guard Josh Sitton, who talked about Yanda's grit.

"Toughness is the first word when you think about Marshal," he said. "He just doesn't get beat."

However, it was future Hall-of-Famer Cam Heyward of the Steelers who had the highest praise of the Ravens' star guard, saying, "Hands down, he's THE best guard in the NFL."

As in the best.

Yanda was someone who could be counted on. He would play hurt and do what coaches asked of him. When one of the Ravens' tackles was sidelined by injury, for instance, he moved over to replace him. Without complaint.

Then there was the year when he injured a shoulder and switched from the right to the left side of the line so he could get on the field. The move allowed him to protect his injured shoulder and still perform at a high level. 

"The way he can play every position," said Heward, "there is no dropoff (in play)." 

But, toughness was what was expected when the Ravens chose the Iowa lineman in the third round (86th overall) of the 2007 NFL draft, and that's what they got. But if that's not enough for you. Maybe you're into analytics and internet sites like Pro Football Focus (PFF). If you are ... and Marshal Yanda is your guy .. you'll be pleased.

"Yanda spent his entire 13-year career in Baltimore," PFF said,"and produced a PFF grade above 80.0 in every one of those seasons. While he was a guard for most of his career, he started at right tackle as a rookie and was one of the best in the league, so he very well could have been a Hall of Fame-caliber tackle, too."

The PFF grade for his career was 93.0 on 12,257 snaps -- the second highest for any Ravens' player since the organization was established. Five times he made their All-Pro team, while he reached the second-team a sixth year and twice was named PFF's top offensive lineman. Guard, center, tackle. It didn't matter. 

As in the best.

OK, so maybe PFF is not your cup of tea. Then let's check out Proscout, Inc., the independent scouting firm that graded all NFL players since the mid-1970s. Yanda received a grade of "blue" (their highest) in nine of 13 seasons. 

"Best offensive guard technician," founder Mike Giddings said of the 6-3, 315-pounder. "Angles won most run blocks. Pass-protection is an elite combination of 'slide and hand pop.' Sound plus quick plus tough. Twice No. 1 (in their evaluations)"

Number one. As in the best. 

When he retired, Hall-of-Fame linebacker Ray Lewis told the media, "When you think about who you would want as a teammate, Marshal is at the top of the list. His effort every day to be the best at his craft was amazing to watch. Every time he stepped on the field, you knew you were getting everything he had." 

"Top of the list," as in the best.

Again.

It's clear that Marshal Yanda will have a bust in Canton someday. The only question is when. When you look closely at his career, first-ballot doesn't seem out of the question. However, history tells us to beware. He was a guard, and voters are slow to act on them.

So stay tuned. We'll all find out Thursday, February 13, when the Hall's Class of 2025 is revealed. 

Tuesday, January 14, 2025

State Your Case: Is Bucs' Mike Evans a First-Ballot Hall of Famer Waiting to Happen?

By John Turney 
A few weeks agi, after a nine-catch, two-touchdown, 159-yard performance two weekends ago, Tampa Bay wide receiver Mike Evans received the highest praise from coach Todd Bowles, and it had nothing to do with Evans' play that afternoon.

It had to do with his career.

"I think he's a guaranteed Hall of Famer," Bowles said. "He steps up and plays big. You can't put a price on what he does for this team from a mental standpoint, from a physical standpoint and from a team standpoint.

"He is everything that a player aspires to be from a mental aspect. He's tough. He does great in the community. He takes care of his body. He comes up big with plays, whether they're singling him or doubling him, and he blocks. We can't ask for anything more than what he is giving us right now."

Bowles' comments didn't go unnoticed, especially on social media. Among those who responded was Brett Kollmann, who's familiar to those who frequent YouTube or X. He has over 400,000 on the former and nearly 160,000 on X. So, his opinion matters.

Anyway, he didn't question what Bowles had to say; he simply took things a step farther.

"I don't think the question is: Is Mike Evans is a first-ballot Hall of Famer?" he said. "I think the question is: How many receivers in NFL history are in front of him? It ain't many." 

Some of his followers agreed, while there was pushback from others -- most notably, NFL.com's Gregg Rosenthal, who pointed to a glaring hole in Evans' career bound to provoke debate when he becomes a Hall-of-Fame candidate.

"Never been a first team All Pro," Rosenthal said, "and only second team twice. I love Mike Evans and think he'll make the HOF as a far more exciting section of the Art Monk/Tim Brown compiler wing. But if he's never been top-2 in a given year, I'm going 'many' "

So, which is it?  Or is it even an "either-or?" Or maybe something more nuanced than that? 

Let's take a look.

Since entering the NFL as the seventh overall pick in the 2014 draft, Evans has been a model of durability and consistency. To wit, last year he became the first player in NFL history to start his career with eleven consecutive 1,000-yard receiving seasons, a feat unmatched by the greatest receivers with names like Rice, Alworth, Moss, Owens, Harrison, etc.

Not only that, but he had his sixth double-digit season in that category, too. And if he does, he joins Randy Moss, Jerry Rice (both with nine), Marvin Harrison, Terrell Owens (eight), Cris Carter and Davante Adams (six) as the only receivers to reach that pinnacle.

In his 11 seasons, Evans has already surpassed 100 career touchdowns -- a milestone only a dozen receivers (including tight ends) reached in the NFL's 100-plus-year history. In fact, only seven of the 35 Hall-of-Fame wide receivers have that many.

Taken together, those all seem like Hall-of-Fame numbers.

But then there's the question of the "1,000" season not being what it used to be. Since the NFL expanded games from 14 to 16 in 1978, it made it easier to get there. The same was true when the NFL went from 12 to 14 games in 1961. The "1,000-yard" threshold was notable then because it was rare.

Now it's almost routine. 

From 1920-60, only 17 players did it a total of 21 times. Through 1977, the last year there was a 14-game schedule, it happened 105 times. But since 1978, 839 players produced 1,000-yard receiving seasons (including tight ends and running backs) ... and, keep in mind, that includes 87 since 2021 -- the 17-game era. With two games left this season, that number will grow, as a dozen or more players are within striking distance.

The point? Perhaps Evans' streak shows more about consistency than anything else as in being there ... answering the bell ... reliability. No question, four of his seasons featured 1,200 or more yards, or what might be considered an All-Pro level. But a couple just inched over the 1,000 barrier, and while those might considered good seasons, they're not elite.

What can be seen now is that Evans' blend of size and exceptional ball-tracking ability has made him a nightmare matchup for opposing defenses. If you go strictly by "the eye test," one has to conclude that Evans is special; someone's defenses must target.

And they should.

His height (6-feet-5) is rare for a wideout. Only two others (Hall-of-Famer Calvin Johnson and Brandon Marshall) have been that tall and produce 10,000 or more yards receiving in their careers. However, Evans is the only wide receiver at that height with 100 TD catches.

But he's not just big; he also has excellent speed for someone his size, turning in a 4.53-second 40 at the 2014 NFL combine. That makes him a deceptively effective deep receiver, as the numbers illustrate: He has a career yards-per-catch average of 15.3.

Is that good? Well, Moss's career average was 15.6, and Megatron's was 15.9. For this era, it absolutely is. He's also a smooth route runner and physical receiver. Few, if any, are better at getting the ball -- winning the "50-50" throws.

But there's more.

Evans also has the jewelry. He was Tom Brady's top target for the Super Bowl-winning Bucs in 2020 ... and what a relief for someone who spent a half-dozen years slogging away with the wildly inconsistent Jameis Winston. Once the G.O.A.T. arrived, it was right to the playoffs ... and beyond. 

The Buccaneers went on to trounce Kansas City, 31-9, in Super Bowl LV. 

But what about Rosenthal's point that Evans never made first-team All-Pro a single time and was a second-teamer just twice? It's a strong rebuttal to a first-ballot claim. On All-Pro teams recognized by the Hall of Fame, first-ballot wide receivers average just over five first-team All-Pro years each. 

That's a lot more than none. 

On the other hand, it wouldn't affect his eventually being inducted because it hasn't hurt others. Andre Reed was never a first-team All-Pro, and nine other Gold Jacket recipients were first-team All-Pro just once. So Evans would have plenty of company.

Additionally, Evans had five Pro Bowl invitations, or more than these post-1960 Hall of Famers: Cliff Branch, Bobby Mitchell, Don Maynard, Harold Carmichael, Isaac Bruce, Lynn Swann, Art Monk, Bob Hayes, John Stallworth and Charlie Joiner. If it was enough for them, it should be enough for Evans.

But it wouldn't be enough for the first ballot. At least not now. But that could change.

Here's how: For one, next year Larry Fitzgerald will be eligible for the Hall of Fame for the first time. He went to a pile of Pro Bowls (11) but was a first-team All-Pro once and second-team twice when you count just AP teams -- although you can bump that up to two All-Pros if you include the Sporting News (which the Hall of Fame recognizes). 

In either case, it's not to the level of what stars like Rice, Alworth, et. al., accomplished. Nonetheless, Fitzgerald just might make it right away and be part of the Class of 2026. He's not a lock, but it's possible because of the numbers he amassed -- 1,432 receptions, 17,492 yards and 121 touchdowns. That's above and beyond and likely will mitigate the lack of multiple first-team nominations.

So how would that relate to Mike Evans? Easy: Fitzgerald caught over 500 passes for over 5,000 yards and 32 touchdowns from the time he was 32 through the end of his career, a total of six seasons. Evans turns 32 next year, and if he were to play as long as and be as productive as Fitzgerald, his career numbers would be nearly identical.

If we "ballpark" them," we might come up with something around 1,300-1,400 receptions and over 17,000 yards and 120-130 TD grabs for Evans.  With those numbers, Hall voters would have to give him first-ballot consideration -- if, indeed, they do the same with Larry Fitzgerald.

I know, we're way out in the world of "what if," but that scenario would fulfill Kollaman's opinion/prediction. Barring that, though, it seems Rosenthal's thinking would prevail. Until then, we can enjoy watching Mike Evans play and hope that what we see is what we continue to get for years ... because Mike Evans is special.

That's one opinion that isn't debatable. 

State Your Case: Remember Rams' Strongman Duane Putnam? Someone Should.

By John Turney 
Duane Putnam (61)
There are multiple tiers to becoming an NFL all-star, from all-conference to Pro Bowl to first-team All-Pro, a pinnacle reserved for the absolute best at each position. And if an individual is named to most ... or all ... recognized All-Pro teams, he can circle the bases.

And become a consensus All-Pro. 

Each level is increasingly difficult to achieve, demanding near-universal recognition of a player's talent -- which brings us to former Los Angeles Rams' guard Duane Putnam.  He played in the 1950s and not only was a first-team All-Pro five times; he was also a consensus All-Pro in three of those seasons. 

So why does that matter? Because his accolades match or exceed those of Hall-of-Fame guards Gene Upshaw, Gene Hickerson, Mike Munchak, Will Shields, Stan Jones and Tom Mack. In fact, he trails only Billy Shaw, Jerry Kramer and Russ Grimm by one consensus All-Pro nod. 

But wait. Duane Putnam? Who's he?

It's a fair question. A dominant player of his era, his name isn't widely known nor remembered. Yet, he was one of the premier guards of the 1950s, and his story deserves recognition. 

So let's hear it.

After graduating from Antioch High School in 1946, Putnam enlisted in the U.S. Army, serving in the First Cavalry for two years before enrolling the College of the Pacific (now the University of the Pacific). As a senior, he was an honorable mention All-American and earned AP's All-Coast honors, along with some players you might know -- Frank Gifford, Ollie Matson, Hugh McElhenny, Gino Marchetti and Les Richter. 

Chosen by Pittsburgh in the sixth round of the 1952 NFL draft, Putnam was traded to the Rams where he initially served as a backup. But at 6 feet tall and 217 pounds, he wasn’t physically imposing by NFL standards. So something had to give ... and something did.

Through hard work. 

While doing graduate work at UCLA, he trained with one of the school's shot putters (something Putnam did in high school and college). Convinced that weight training wouldn't "tie him up" nor make him musclebound, he learned he could hoist barbells and still retain his running ability. As such, he became one of the first NFL players to adopt weight training as part of his regimen, defying the conventional coaching wisdom of that time.
Duane Putnam (61)
Alongside a pair of other NFL weightlifting pioneers of the 1950s -- Stan Jones of the Bears and Jack Stroud of the Giants -- Putnam proved that strength training could enhance performance rather than hinder it. Adding 20 pounds of muscle for his second season, he not only earned a starting spot with the Rams; he held it for the next seven seasons. 

 Putnam's unique combination of speed and newfound strength made him an ideal pulling guard. He excelled at leading sweeps, clearing paths for running backs Dan Towler, Tank Younger, Ron Waller, Jon Arnett and Ollie Matson and earning the praise of legendary coach Sid Gillman.

"Putnam has no peer playing offensive guard," Gillman said. "I have not seen any guards his equal." 

During Putnam's eight seasons with the Rams, the team led the NFL in numerous offensive categories. No team scored more points. No team ran for more yards. No team had a higher average per rush. No team passed for more yards or had more total yards. And only one allowed fewer sack yards. 

The Rams ran the ball effectively and efficiently and threw it without putting their quarterbacks at risk, and Putnam was one reason why. On a team with numerous stars, he was its only offensive lineman chosen as an All-Pro.

But why, then, isn’t he ever mentioned as a candidate for the Pro Football Hall of Fame? He's never been a finalist and never made it beyond the preliminary lists as a modern-era or senior candidate. Yet his accolades speak for themselves.

What are voters missing?

One possible explanation is that he wasn't named to the 1950s' all-decade team, though that may be an anomaly. When the Hall of Fame announced all-decade teams, the format was different than it is now. Despite having three quarterbacks, three halfbacks and five receivers (three ends and two flankers), only two guards, two tackles and one center were named.

Basically, blockers got the short shrift. It was easier to be recognized if you threw, ran or caught the ball.

Nevertheless, when legendary writer Paul Zimmerman revisited all-decade selections decades later, he included Putnam on his revised team for Sports Illustrated, as did Pro Football Reference -- arguably the top sports statistical site on the internet. Both recognized that, while the Hall's all-decade teams have value, they're not without flaws and could ... .and should ... be corrected, with Putnam one of the most prominent omissions.

But there may have been other reasons he was given the cold shoulder by past Hall voters. An independent thinker who often prioritized personal commitments over rigid football schedules, he opted to play in the 1957 Hula Bowl— which, at that time, featured a team with Hawaiian college players, military players and NFL stars vs. one of college stars. 

No problem there. Over the years, NFL players accepted the Hula Bowl invitation, took the free trip to Hawaii, earned a paycheck, then returned to  Los Angeles for the Pro Bowl. But in 1957, Putnam did not return ... at least not immediately. Staying in Hawaii to spend time with his wife and family, he missed his first Pro Bowl practice .

That was a problem. 

In fact, it angered NFL officials so much they declined to let him play in the Pro Bowl -- and incident marked the beginning of the end for a junket valued by NFL players. When Gifford went through the same ordeal the following year, the Hula Bowl by 1960 became more like other all-star games that fielded only college players (Hall-of-Famer Bobby Layne threw five touchdowns in the final game under that format in 1959).

Another example of Putnam's independence was his refusal to abide by Gillman's training rules that, among other things, forbid drinking in training camp. Putnam did it anyway, as did others. The difference was that Putnam wasn't discreet. He did it openly.

Then, In his final year in Los Angeles, Putnam was found by young Rams' executive Pete Rozelle in the team's hotel lobby after curfew. Told by the future NFL commissioner to retire to his room, Putnam refused. Rozelle wasn't amused, and so -- without consulting Gillman -- sent him home.

With that as a background, it was no surprise that the Rams left Putnam unprotected in the 1960 expansion pool of players available to the newly-former Dallas Cowboys. The club quickly grabbed him and made him the franchise's first starting left guard, with Putnam playing so well that he made UPI honorable mention All-Pro for a winless team.

He was the only Cowboys' player to earn All-Pro votes and one of only two to gain any recognition. 

But Putnam's independence continued to clash with team structures, with the Cowboys in 1961 refusing to accommodate his annual football camp for kids in Susanville, Cal. They wanted him in camp; he wanted to help the children. All got a reprieve when future Cleveland's Hall-of-Fame guard, Gene Hickerson, broke his leg in preseason, and the Browns acquired Putnam in a trade for a third-round draft pick.

In Cleveland, Putnam played the role of the famed messenger guard, helping Jim Brown secure another rushing title. But, by the next summer, it was deja vue all over again. He wanted to report to the Browns after his youth football camp ended (the camp was his passion), and the Browns, like the Cowboys, weren't about to go for it. 

So they released the 11-year veteran, allowing Putnam to finish his career with the Rams under his former teammates, Bob Waterfield (coach) and Elroy "Crazylegs" Hirsch (GM). Gillman and Rozelle were gone, with Gillman coaching the AFL Chargers and Rozelle moving to the league office in New York. But that wasn't the only change. The Rams were a disaster, with Waterfield fired after eight games and the team finishing an NFL-worst 1-12-1.

The following summer. Putnam retired.

He then went on to coach offensive lines at Los Angeles Valley Junior College, then at three NFL teams (Falcons, Eagles and Cardinals) over 12 years and work briefly with the Philadelphia Bell of the World Football League. He even doubled as the Falcons' strength coach in the early 1970s, getting the team's linemen to engage in strength training as he had a generation earlier. 

It was a tremendous, albeit unknown, career. No question, his final seasons were marked by friction with authority figures, but that doesn't diminish his legacy as a player ... and that's what matters.

Was Putnam difficult? Perhaps. Or maybe he was a military veteran who simply refused to let football dictate every aspect of his life.  What isn’t debatable is his talent. Duane Putnam was a five-time first-team All-Pro, key member of one of the NFL’s most dominant offenses -- the 1950s' L.A. Rams --  and a player who helped change how NFL players approached strength training. 

When you watch film of him, you see one of the finest pulling guards in NFL history -- a player who deserves to be remembered among the all-time greats and, at the very least, have his case heard by the Pro Football Hall's seniors committee. 

 But not because I say so. Because his play demands it.

Monday, January 13, 2025

Packers Play From Behind in Philly

 By Eric Goska

(screenshot from NFL Game Pass)

The early bird gets the worm.

On Sunday, that quick-striking fowl hailed from Philadelphia. The Eagles, the No. 2 seed in the NFC, swooped in at the outset, forcing a turnover that led to a touchdown as they soared past the No. 7 Packers 22-10 in a Wild Card game at Lincoln Financial Field.

Every NFL team wants to start fast. The Eagles provided a crash course in how to do that.

Philadelphia linebacker Oren Burks forced Keisean Nixon to fumble when he slammed into the return specialist on the opening kickoff. Jeremiah Trotter Jr. recovered, and the Eagles were in business at the Green Bay 28-yard line.

Saquon Barkley gained 17 on two carries to reach the 11. From there, Jalen Hurts hit Jahan Dotson in the end zone and Philadelphia went up 7-0 after just 99 seconds of play.

The Eagles have played 52 postseasons games since entering the NFL in 1933. Only once before – that in January 2003 on a 20-yard Duce Staley run with 52 seconds elapsed – has Philadelphia scored earlier in a playoff game.

The Packers have played 64 postseason games. Only once previously had they surrendered points so close to the start of a contest.

On Dec. 26, 1965, Colts cornerback Lenny Lyles forced Bill Anderson to fumble after the end had snagged a Bart Starr pass. Don Shinnick scooped up the loose ball and reached paydirt with just 21 seconds having come off the clock.

Green Bay rallied to win that game, 13-10 in overtime. No such comeback took place in Philadelphia.

The Packers, unable to get their offense in gear, trailed for 58 minutes, 21 seconds. Never have they floundered longer in a playoff game, coming closest on Jan. 9, 2005 when they played from behind for 58:20 in a 31-17 loss to the Vikings.

Those early birds from the City of Brotherly Love got their initial first down on their first offensive play. They scored a touchdown two plays later.

The Packers, meanwhile, went scoreless in the first half for only the fifth time in the playoffs. They notched their first points – a third-quarter field goal by Brandon McManus – with 39:14 already  in the books.

That’s a long wait. The longest in franchise history. The previous mark had been 36:16 when the 49ers drubbed them 37-20 behind Raheem Mostert’s 220 rushing yards on Jan. 19, 2020.

Jordan Love
(photo by Eric Goska)

The reasons the Pack failed in Philly are many. One shortcoming: a passing game that established an all-time low.

Jordan Love completed 20 of 33 passes for 212 yards. He failed to throw a touchdown pass while pitching three interceptions to earn a passer rating of 41.5.

No passer in Packers playoff history (minimum 15 attempts) had ever sunk so low. Scott Hunter had come the closest with a 52.4 in a 16-3 loss to the Redskins in 1972.

Since 2000, 50 quarterbacks have earned a passer rating below 50 in a playoff game per Stathead at Pro Football Reference. Their combined record in those games was a dismal 7-43.

Love, it appears, was at a loss when his team crossed midfield. In plays run on Green Bay’s side of the field, he completed 17 of 21 throws for 201 yards and one pick (89.6 rating). In Eagles territory, No. 10 completed just 3 of 12 passes for 11 yards with two picks (0.0 rating).

This isn’t to say Love lost the game for Green Bay. Anyone who saw what transpired can recite the litany of errors the Packers made in all three phases of the game.

But Love and the offense needed to play better, even after losing receivers Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed to injury in the third quarter. Because they did not, Green Bay spent what seemed like an eternity in football purgatory.

Extra point: Hurts became the first quarterback to throw a touchdown pass on his initial pass attempt against Green Bay in a playoff game. Two non-quarterbacks – running back Dan Reeves in the Ice Bowl and punter Jon Ryan in Seattle – reached the end zone on their first and only throws in 1967 and 2015, respectively.

Behind the 8 Ball
The four playoff games in which the Packers trailed for more than 55 minutes.

Trail

Date

Opponent

Result

58:21

Jan. 12, 2025

Eagles

GB lost, 10-22

58:20

Jan. 9, 2005

Vikings

GB lost, 17-31

57:41

Dec. 26, 1965

Colts

GB won, 13-10 (OT)

56:07

Jan. 8, 1995

Cowboys

GB lost, 9-35


Thursday, January 9, 2025

2024 Defensive Leaders in +WPA/EPA

 By Nick Webster 
T.J. Watt
Here is a summary of the discussion on defensive statistics in football, crediting Brian Burke for his pioneering work over 15 years ago:

Traditional defensive stats like tackles, sacks, and turnovers forced are limited in scope and typically only measure a single aspect of defensive play. They do not provide a comprehensive view of a player’s defensive contribution. Positive actions (like making a tackle or a sack) can be credited to one player, but missed opportunities or failures by teammates are often not accounted for and defensive plays are frequently team efforts, making it hard to isolate individual performance.

Almost 15 years ago Brian Burke (now of ESPN Stats & Information) in his pioneering Advanced Football Analytics Website suggested using +WPA (Win Probability Added) or +EPA (Expected Points Added, which only considers plays where the defensive player has a positive impact. 

The metric essentially captures playmaking ability; however, it does not account for the "hidden" defensive work like coverage that prevents plays from happening or holding blocks.

In his initial work-up, Burke uses the analogy of a corporation +WPA/EPA is like revenue (positive plays), while -WPA/EPA (negative plays) would be expenses, but we can only directly measure the revenue (positive plays) due to data limitations. 

Luckily, performance distribution in sports often follows a normal curve where an average defender's performance will be symmetric around their mean, with occasional very good or very bad plays. +WPA/EPA can infer overall performance because good defenders are expected to have more positive plays and fewer negative ones.

Done in 2009 Burke presented a list of top defenders based on +WPA for the 2009 season, showing that players like Jonathan Vilma, Patrick Willis, and Darrelle Revis ranked high, aligning with expert opinions and Pro Bowl selections. Suggesting that +WPA/EPA, despite their limitations, identify key playmakers effectively. 

Furthermore, in baseball where it is easier to measure positives and negatives, +WPA correlates strongly with net WPA, suggesting that positive contributions are a good indicator of overall performance. So while +WPA and +EPA do not capture the full spectrum of defensive play, they provide valuable insights into a player's ability to make significant positive contributions and are a useful measure to evaluate defensive performance more objectively overall than traditional stats, as they make it far easier to compare across position groups or even within position groups for players who excel in making different types of impactful plays. 

When Burke joined the ESPN Stats & Information Group several years back, he ceased his freelance work and ceased publishing +WPA/EPA for defenders. Luckily, with publicly available data on NFLFastR we can calculate these metrics for more recent seasons. So, what do they tell us about defenders in 2024?
Among interior defenders, the leader in EPA (the defender who made plays that maximally reduced the likelihood of the offense to score) was highly underrated Miami Dolphins Zach Sieler. He’s the portrait of underrated, a 7th-round pick, from a small school (Ferris State) on his second team who has simply improved with every season and now at 29 is among the league's best. I say among as the cluster at the top of interior linemen for EPA is an extraordinarily tight cluster with <5 EPA separating the top four it would be hard to use this information alone to separate among them.  
Zach Sieler
Noteworthy, Kobie Turner is on the rise on a young L.A. Rams’ defense that boasts a slew of young talent. Calais Campbell is simply incredible at age 38, he’s now six years older than Aaron Donald was when he hung them up, three years older than Joe Greene and Bob Lilly were, two years older than Merlin Olsen and Alan Page were and of all the Hall of Fame defensive tackles only Ernie Stautner and Leo Nomellini were still in the league at that ripe old age.

Calais should join them in the Hall when he finally decides to hang them up. Also noteworthy is Dexter Lawrence who was robbed of his final 5-games due to injury and likely would have joined the group towards the top of this list.

At the top in WPA were the players making plays that most improved their teams’ chance of winning.  Again, imagine a 3rd and 7 sack with the opponent on your own 32, the difference between an almost certain field goal becomes a Punt – if this happens in the fourth quarter in a close game or third quarter in a blowout the EPA is the same, though the former play contributes far more to victory. 

The Seahawks’ Leonard Williams leads in this category, and certainly, his 92-yard interception return TD against the Jets was a big contributor. Recall the play happened with the visiting Jets already up 14 points deep in Seahawk territory about to make it a 21-point lead in the middle of the second quarter, in other words, the play turned a would-be blowout into a Seattle one-TD deficit. In fact, when the clock ran down on the game, the Seahawks won 26-21, a five-point victory when Williams had directly scored 6 points!

Not high on either list is Chris Jones, who will garner All-Pro votes and deservingly so as he draws so much attention that allows lesser-known Chiefs to make plays (say thank you George Karlaftis). But with just five sacks, this might be the year we see Cam Heyward and one of the other Interior Linemen sneak through.

Also impactful without making as many plays is the Eagles’ Jalen Carter. He’s a problem for even the best Centers and Guards to deal with and while he may not ultimately make a play that is credited to him, anyone watching the film can see both the talent and the value. The success of the Eagles’ linebacker core is much thanks to Carter.

For years Edge defender, as it's now commonly called, has been one of the most competitive positions with the AP voting three different Edges a DPOY in each of the last three years with Nick Bosa, T.J. Watt then finally Myles Garrett garnering the award. Throw in Maxx Crosby and Micah Parsons nipping at their tails and this has been a group of five fighting for two All-Pro spots for many years.  This was a bit of a down year for this group, however, so let’s go to the numbers.
In a relatively down year, it’s clear that despite a late-season swoon following his ankle injury TJ Watt made the most plays costing his opponents points and driving his team closer to victory. Let’s take a moment to deal with who isn’t atop the lists, Myles Garrett had, for him, a somewhat less impactful season – and that could be seen in the overall deterioration in the quality of the Browns’ defense. 
Myles Garrett
Injury felled Maxx Crosby and Micah Parsons for meaningful chunks of the season knocking those typical leaders out – and of course, we were robbed of seeing what up-and-comer Aiden Hutchinson could do as he matures to potentially join the topflight. This left TJ at the top, and if you saw him play in the first 14 games, you saw the same on film.

Outside of Watt Greg Rousseau, somewhat similar to Seiler has been consistently improving with every passing year – albeit with the pedigree of a Miami Hurricane picked in the first round. For his length, he plays with great leverage and is excellent at making use of his incredible wingspan. Andrew Van Ginkel and Jonathan Greenard both had outstanding seasons and came in as solid veterans, though one tends to wonder how much of them each breaking out is credit to defensive coordinator Brian Flores whose scheme was the star of the show (until they showed up in Detroit).

Sack leader Trey Hendrickson may appear somewhat lower than many would expect, but he had just 2.5 stuffs (T.J. had 10, Maxx 10.5, Myles 6.5, etc., etc.) and just two FF while Watt led the league in that category with six.  He did make many plays, but ultimately the plays Hendrickson made just didn’t impact the game or come at meaningful times, and perhaps that shows in the play of the Bengals Defense overall and the teams’ poor record considering the performance of their QB.

Off-the-ball LB is a very difficult position to judge because it can be played well in so many different ways. Can you tackle, can you cover, can you make plays in the backfield – are your tackles all downfield (somewhere out there a Jesse Tuggle or dare I say it London Fletcher fan is wincing). Where EPA and WPA are nice tools is that not all tackles are created equally.  A five-yard tackle on 1st and 10 is a win for the offense, on 3rd and 7 it’s a win for the defense and EPA and WPA would reflect it accordingly – the latter creating value for the defender, the former wouldn’t.
The revelation at LB this season was The Eagles’ Zack Baun – boy those Wisconsin Badgers can grow linebackers. He netted the highest EPA of all defenders in the league and was among the best in contributing to wins. This position group highlights one of the interesting things about EPA vs. WPA.  Baun made many plays to stop opponents, but frequently late in the season his team was ahead and protecting leads.
Zach Baun
Meanwhile, Chiefs’ Nick Bolton was good at playmaking by EPA (#10) but as the Chiefs played so many close one-score games his plays were unusually high-leverage. As noted, when discussing interior D-Linemen, both Buan and Bolton probably benefitted from having strong interior linemen who required attention and double teams. Balancing out Baun and Bolton were Zaire Franklin, the Colts’ omnipresent tackling machine and Quincy Williams the Jet who tied a little-known NFL record with five-Stuffs in an otherwise meaningless Week 17 tilt.

Those who watch the game, and know the recent history of the position group won’t be surprised to see Lavonte David (a PFJ favorite and my vote for the most underrated defender of the last 20 years), ageless Bobby Wagner who’s moved up the all-time tackle list (at least since ~1975) to trail only Ray Lewis, London Fletcher and Junior Seau and 49ers superstar Fred Warner on the lists as well. 

Warner would certainly have led the list at the quarter pole, and probably even mid-season but played with less abandon as his teams’ hopes faded. David continued to do some of everything, and though he’s a couple steps slower he’s a step more savvy allowing him to still play at a high level. Wagner may be three steps slower and two steps savvier and probably best contributed to turning around the team culture with a Commanders team in need of leaders.

Cornerback is a difficult position group to measure in this manner, typically a corner that does best will have lots of INTs or PDs and sometimes avoiding being targeted yields very little here.
The leader at CB in both EPA and WPA was the outstanding veteran Marlon Humphrey. Patrick Surtain and Derek Stingley were both among league leaders in passer rating allowed and both show up in EPA as does Byron Murphy a credit to his strong tackling and 6 INT’s. 
Marlon Humphrey
These metrics love Brian Flores’ Defenses as they're designed to make plays, no ‘bend but don’t break’ in Minnesota these days. Carlton Davis had a very good year in Detroit, by some measures his best, and was the main part in shoring up what was last year a huge liability for the Lions, their pass coverage. Few revelations at the CB position though we should credit Humphrey for his continued playmaking at what’s an advanced age at one of the league’s most physically demanding positions.
At safety Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch (somewhat a slot, really a jack-of-all-trades, DB) both stood out in terms of EPA, they both made plays. Again, these two defenders were frequently making plays with their team ahead and with sizable leads so neither even made the top 10 in WPA. Tre’Von Moehrig and Nick Cross represent solid players who are asked to make a disproportionate number of plays on two quite poor defenses.
Kerby Joseph
 C.J. Gardner-Johnson is a difference-maker every time he’s been with the Eagles and made 6 INTs when not frustrating opponents or getting himself ejected. Probably the most interesting case on these lists is Kyle Hamilton, who’s among the most talented safeties in the game but didn’t make a sizable impact in the Ravens’ defense until they shifted to using him deep later in the season. 

The Ravens’ defense clearly improved over the course of the season, but it was abundantly clear early that outside of Marlon Humphrey they couldn’t cover any Wideouts, and subsequently they were gashed in the passing game. To Zach Orr’s credit, he adjusted and took his athletic safety who used to play as a 'rover' near the line of scrimmage and played him more in center field using his range to assist an otherwise challenged CB2 and CB3. This worked very effectively and while not a strength the Ravens’ pass defense is no longer the liability it was early in the year, which bodes well heading into the playoffs.

Hopefully, this gave a different view and a different manner of thinking about defenders and the value they produce. It’s simply not always the case that the leading tackler, sacker or interceptor is the best defender in the NFL, they’re asked to do so many different things and the beauty of the EPA/WPA framework is it weights those things based on the relative impact of the play and the context of the play to understand who the best playmakers are and which playmakers most impacted their teams’ drive to victory.