State Your Case: Is Bucs' Mike Evans a First-Ballot Hall of Famer Waiting to Happen?

By John Turney 

A few weeks agi, after a nine-catch, two-touchdown, 159-yard performance two weekends ago, Tampa Bay wide receiver Mike Evans received the highest praise from coach Todd Bowles, and it had nothing to do with Evans' play that afternoon.

It had to do with his career.

"I think he's a guaranteed Hall of Famer," Bowles said. "He steps up and plays big. You can't put a price on what he does for this team from a mental standpoint, from a physical standpoint and from a team standpoint.

"He is everything that a player aspires to be from a mental aspect. He's tough. He does great in the community. He takes care of his body. He comes up big with plays, whether they're singling him or doubling him, and he blocks. We can't ask for anything more than what he is giving us right now."

Bowles' comments didn't go unnoticed, especially on social media. Among those who responded was Brett Kollmann, who's familiar to those who frequent YouTube or X. He has over 400,000 on the former and nearly 160,000 on X. So, his opinion matters.

Anyway, he didn't question what Bowles had to say; he simply took things a step farther.

"I don't think the question is: Is Mike Evans is a first-ballot Hall of Famer?" he said. "I think the question is: How many receivers in NFL history are in front of him? It ain't many." 

Some of his followers agreed, while there was pushback from others -- most notably, NFL.com's Gregg Rosenthal, who pointed to a glaring hole in Evans' career bound to provoke debate when he becomes a Hall-of-Fame candidate.

"Never been a first team All Pro," Rosenthal said, "and only second team twice. I love Mike Evans and think he'll make the HOF as a far more exciting section of the Art Monk/Tim Brown compiler wing. But if he's never been top-2 in a given year, I'm going 'many' "

So, which is it?  Or is it even an "either-or?" Or maybe something more nuanced than that? 

Let's take a look.

Since entering the NFL as the seventh overall pick in the 2014 draft, Evans has been a model of durability and consistency. To wit, last year he became the first player in NFL history to start his career with eleven consecutive 1,000-yard receiving seasons, a feat unmatched by the greatest receivers with names like Rice, Alworth, Moss, Owens, Harrison, etc.

Not only that, but he had his sixth double-digit season in that category, too. And if he does, he joins Randy Moss, Jerry Rice (both with nine), Marvin Harrison, Terrell Owens (eight), Cris Carter and Davante Adams (six) as the only receivers to reach that pinnacle.

In his 11 seasons, Evans has already surpassed 100 career touchdowns -- a milestone only a dozen receivers (including tight ends) reached in the NFL's 100-plus-year history. In fact, only seven of the 35 Hall-of-Fame wide receivers have that many.

Taken together, those all seem like Hall-of-Fame numbers.

But then there's the question of the "1,000" season not being what it used to be. Since the NFL expanded games from 14 to 16 in 1978, it made it easier to get there. The same was true when the NFL went from 12 to 14 games in 1961. The "1,000-yard" threshold was notable then because it was rare.

Now it's almost routine. 

From 1920-60, only 17 players did it a total of 21 times. Through 1977, the last year there was a 14-game schedule, it happened 105 times. But since 1978, 839 players produced 1,000-yard receiving seasons (including tight ends and running backs) ... and, keep in mind, that includes 87 since 2021 -- the 17-game era. With two games left this season, that number will grow, as a dozen or more players are within striking distance.

The point? Perhaps Evans' streak shows more about consistency than anything else as in being there ... answering the bell ... reliability. No question, four of his seasons featured 1,200 or more yards, or what might be considered an All-Pro level. But a couple just inched over the 1,000 barrier, and while those might considered good seasons, they're not elite.

What can be seen now is that Evans' blend of size and exceptional ball-tracking ability has made him a nightmare matchup for opposing defenses. If you go strictly by "the eye test," one has to conclude that Evans is special; someone's defenses must target.

And they should.

His height (6-feet-5) is rare for a wideout. Only two others (Hall-of-Famer Calvin Johnson and Brandon Marshall) have been that tall and produce 10,000 or more yards receiving in their careers. However, Evans is the only wide receiver at that height with 100 TD catches.

But he's not just big; he also has excellent speed for someone his size, turning in a 4.53-second 40 at the 2014 NFL combine. That makes him a deceptively effective deep receiver, as the numbers illustrate: He has a career yards-per-catch average of 15.3.

Is that good? Well, Moss's career average was 15.6, and Megatron's was 15.9. For this era, it absolutely is. He's also a smooth route runner and physical receiver. Few, if any, are better at getting the ball -- winning the "50-50" throws.

But there's more.

Evans also has the jewelry. He was Tom Brady's top target for the Super Bowl-winning Bucs in 2020 ... and what a relief for someone who spent a half-dozen years slogging away with the wildly inconsistent Jameis Winston. Once the G.O.A.T. arrived, it was right to the playoffs ... and beyond. 

The Buccaneers went on to trounce Kansas City, 31-9, in Super Bowl LV. 

But what about Rosenthal's point that Evans never made first-team All-Pro a single time and was a second-teamer just twice? It's a strong rebuttal to a first-ballot claim. On All-Pro teams recognized by the Hall of Fame, first-ballot wide receivers average just over five first-team All-Pro years each. 

That's a lot more than none. 

On the other hand, it wouldn't affect his eventually being inducted because it hasn't hurt others. Andre Reed was never a first-team All-Pro, and nine other Gold Jacket recipients were first-team All-Pro just once. So Evans would have plenty of company.

Additionally, Evans had five Pro Bowl invitations, or more than these post-1960 Hall of Famers: Cliff Branch, Bobby Mitchell, Don Maynard, Harold Carmichael, Isaac Bruce, Lynn Swann, Art Monk, Bob Hayes, John Stallworth and Charlie Joiner. If it was enough for them, it should be enough for Evans.

But it wouldn't be enough for the first ballot. At least not now. But that could change.

Here's how: For one, next year Larry Fitzgerald will be eligible for the Hall of Fame for the first time. He went to a pile of Pro Bowls (11) but was a first-team All-Pro once and second-team twice when you count just AP teams -- although you can bump that up to two All-Pros if you include the Sporting News (which the Hall of Fame recognizes). 

In either case, it's not to the level of what stars like Rice, Alworth, et. al., accomplished. Nonetheless, Fitzgerald just might make it right away and be part of the Class of 2026. He's not a lock, but it's possible because of the numbers he amassed -- 1,432 receptions, 17,492 yards and 121 touchdowns. That's above and beyond and likely will mitigate the lack of multiple first-team nominations.

So how would that relate to Mike Evans? Easy: Fitzgerald caught over 500 passes for over 5,000 yards and 32 touchdowns from the time he was 32 through the end of his career, a total of six seasons. Evans turns 32 next year, and if he were to play as long as and be as productive as Fitzgerald, his career numbers would be nearly identical.

If we "ballpark" them," we might come up with something around 1,300-1,400 receptions and over 17,000 yards and 120-130 TD grabs for Evans.  With those numbers, Hall voters would have to give him first-ballot consideration -- if, indeed, they do the same with Larry Fitzgerald.

I know, we're way out in the world of "what if," but that scenario would fulfill Kollaman's opinion/prediction. Barring that, though, it seems Rosenthal's thinking would prevail. Until then, we can enjoy watching Mike Evans play and hope that what we see is what we continue to get for years ... because Mike Evans is special.

That's one opinion that isn't debatable. 

State Your Case: Remember Rams' Strongman Duane Putnam? Someone Should.

By John Turney 

Duane Putnam (61)

There are multiple tiers to becoming an NFL all-star, from all-conference to Pro Bowl to first-team All-Pro, a pinnacle reserved for the absolute best at each position. And if an individual is named to most ... or all ... recognized All-Pro teams, he can circle the bases.

And become a consensus All-Pro. 

Each level is increasingly difficult to achieve, demanding near-universal recognition of a player's talent -- which brings us to former Los Angeles Rams' guard Duane Putnam.  He played in the 1950s and not only was a first-team All-Pro five times; he was also a consensus All-Pro in three of those seasons. 

So why does that matter? Because his accolades match or exceed those of Hall-of-Fame guards Gene Upshaw, Gene Hickerson, Mike Munchak, Will Shields, Stan Jones and Tom Mack. In fact, he trails only Billy Shaw, Jerry Kramer and Russ Grimm by one consensus All-Pro nod. 

But wait. Duane Putnam? Who's he?

It's a fair question. A dominant player of his era, his name isn't widely known nor remembered. Yet, he was one of the premier guards of the 1950s, and his story deserves recognition. 

So let's hear it.

After graduating from Antioch High School in 1946, Putnam enlisted in the U.S. Army, serving in the First Cavalry for two years before enrolling the College of the Pacific (now the University of the Pacific). As a senior, he was an honorable mention All-American and earned AP's All-Coast honors, along with some players you might know -- Frank Gifford, Ollie Matson, Hugh McElhenny, Gino Marchetti and Les Richter. 

Chosen by Pittsburgh in the sixth round of the 1952 NFL draft, Putnam was traded to the Rams where he initially served as a backup. But at 6 feet tall and 217 pounds, he wasn’t physically imposing by NFL standards. So something had to give ... and something did.

Through hard work. 

While doing graduate work at UCLA, he trained with one of the school's shot putters (something Putnam did in high school and college). Convinced that weight training wouldn't "tie him up" nor make him musclebound, he learned he could hoist barbells and still retain his running ability. As such, he became one of the first NFL players to adopt weight training as part of his regimen, defying the conventional coaching wisdom of that time.

Duane Putnam (61)

Alongside a pair of other NFL weightlifting pioneers of the 1950s -- Stan Jones of the Bears and Jack Stroud of the Giants -- Putnam proved that strength training could enhance performance rather than hinder it. Adding 20 pounds of muscle for his second season, he not only earned a starting spot with the Rams; he held it for the next seven seasons. 

 Putnam's unique combination of speed and newfound strength made him an ideal pulling guard. He excelled at leading sweeps, clearing paths for running backs Dan Towler, Tank Younger, Ron Waller, Jon Arnett and Ollie Matson and earning the praise of legendary coach Sid Gillman.

"Putnam has no peer playing offensive guard," Gillman said. "I have not seen any guards his equal." 

During Putnam's eight seasons with the Rams, the team led the NFL in numerous offensive categories. No team scored more points. No team ran for more yards. No team had a higher average per rush. No team passed for more yards or had more total yards. And only one allowed fewer sack yards. 

The Rams ran the ball effectively and efficiently and threw it without putting their quarterbacks at risk, and Putnam was one reason why. On a team with numerous stars, he was its only offensive lineman chosen as an All-Pro.

But why, then, isn’t he ever mentioned as a candidate for the Pro Football Hall of Fame? He's never been a finalist and never made it beyond the preliminary lists as a modern-era or senior candidate. Yet his accolades speak for themselves.

What are voters missing?

One possible explanation is that he wasn't named to the 1950s' all-decade team, though that may be an anomaly. When the Hall of Fame announced all-decade teams, the format was different than it is now. Despite having three quarterbacks, three halfbacks and five receivers (three ends and two flankers), only two guards, two tackles and one center were named.

Basically, blockers got the short shrift. It was easier to be recognized if you threw, ran or caught the ball.

Nevertheless, when legendary writer Paul Zimmerman revisited all-decade selections decades later, he included Putnam on his revised team for Sports Illustrated, as did Pro Football Reference -- arguably the top sports statistical site on the internet. Both recognized that, while the Hall's all-decade teams have value, they're not without flaws and could ... .and should ... be corrected, with Putnam one of the most prominent omissions.

But there may have been other reasons he was given the cold shoulder by past Hall voters. An independent thinker who often prioritized personal commitments over rigid football schedules, he opted to play in the 1957 Hula Bowl— which, at that time, featured a team with Hawaiian college players, military players and NFL stars vs. one of college stars. 

No problem there. Over the years, NFL players accepted the Hula Bowl invitation, took the free trip to Hawaii, earned a paycheck, then returned to  Los Angeles for the Pro Bowl. But in 1957, Putnam did not return ... at least not immediately. Staying in Hawaii to spend time with his wife and family, he missed his first Pro Bowl practice .

That was a problem. 

In fact, it angered NFL officials so much they declined to let him play in the Pro Bowl -- and incident marked the beginning of the end for a junket valued by NFL players. When Gifford went through the same ordeal the following year, the Hula Bowl by 1960 became more like other all-star games that fielded only college players (Hall-of-Famer Bobby Layne threw five touchdowns in the final game under that format in 1959).

Another example of Putnam's independence was his refusal to abide by Gillman's training rules that, among other things, forbid drinking in training camp. Putnam did it anyway, as did others. The difference was that Putnam wasn't discreet. He did it openly.

Then, In his final year in Los Angeles, Putnam was found by young Rams' executive Pete Rozelle in the team's hotel lobby after curfew. Told by the future NFL commissioner to retire to his room, Putnam refused. Rozelle wasn't amused, and so -- without consulting Gillman -- sent him home.

With that as a background, it was no surprise that the Rams left Putnam unprotected in the 1960 expansion pool of players available to the newly-former Dallas Cowboys. The club quickly grabbed him and made him the franchise's first starting left guard, with Putnam playing so well that he made UPI honorable mention All-Pro for a winless team.

He was the only Cowboys' player to earn All-Pro votes and one of only two to gain any recognition. 

But Putnam's independence continued to clash with team structures, with the Cowboys in 1961 refusing to accommodate his annual football camp for kids in Susanville, Cal. They wanted him in camp; he wanted to help the children. All got a reprieve when future Cleveland's Hall-of-Fame guard, Gene Hickerson, broke his leg in preseason, and the Browns acquired Putnam in a trade for a third-round draft pick.

In Cleveland, Putnam played the role of the famed messenger guard, helping Jim Brown secure another rushing title. But, by the next summer, it was deja vue all over again. He wanted to report to the Browns after his youth football camp ended (the camp was his passion), and the Browns, like the Cowboys, weren't about to go for it. 

So they released the 11-year veteran, allowing Putnam to finish his career with the Rams under his former teammates, Bob Waterfield (coach) and Elroy "Crazylegs" Hirsch (GM). Gillman and Rozelle were gone, with Gillman coaching the AFL Chargers and Rozelle moving to the league office in New York. But that wasn't the only change. The Rams were a disaster, with Waterfield fired after eight games and the team finishing an NFL-worst 1-12-1.

The following summer. Putnam retired.

He then went on to coach offensive lines at Los Angeles Valley Junior College, then at three NFL teams (Falcons, Eagles and Cardinals) over 12 years and work briefly with the Philadelphia Bell of the World Football League. He even doubled as the Falcons' strength coach in the early 1970s, getting the team's linemen to engage in strength training as he had a generation earlier. 

It was a tremendous, albeit unknown, career. No question, his final seasons were marked by friction with authority figures, but that doesn't diminish his legacy as a player ... and that's what matters.

Was Putnam difficult? Perhaps. Or maybe he was a military veteran who simply refused to let football dictate every aspect of his life.  What isn’t debatable is his talent. Duane Putnam was a five-time first-team All-Pro, key member of one of the NFL’s most dominant offenses -- the 1950s' L.A. Rams --  and a player who helped change how NFL players approached strength training. 

When you watch film of him, you see one of the finest pulling guards in NFL history -- a player who deserves to be remembered among the all-time greats and, at the very least, have his case heard by the Pro Football Hall's seniors committee. 

 But not because I say so. Because his play demands it.

Packers Play From Behind in Philly

 By Eric Goska

(screenshot from NFL Game Pass)

The early bird gets the worm.

On Sunday, that quick-striking fowl hailed from Philadelphia. The Eagles, the No. 2 seed in the NFC, swooped in at the outset, forcing a turnover that led to a touchdown as they soared past the No. 7 Packers 22-10 in a Wild Card game at Lincoln Financial Field.

Every NFL team wants to start fast. The Eagles provided a crash course in how to do that.

Philadelphia linebacker Oren Burks forced Keisean Nixon to fumble when he slammed into the return specialist on the opening kickoff. Jeremiah Trotter Jr. recovered, and the Eagles were in business at the Green Bay 28-yard line.

Saquon Barkley gained 17 on two carries to reach the 11. From there, Jalen Hurts hit Jahan Dotson in the end zone and Philadelphia went up 7-0 after just 99 seconds of play.

The Eagles have played 52 postseasons games since entering the NFL in 1933. Only once before – that in January 2003 on a 20-yard Duce Staley run with 52 seconds elapsed – has Philadelphia scored earlier in a playoff game.

The Packers have played 64 postseason games. Only once previously had they surrendered points so close to the start of a contest.

On Dec. 26, 1965, Colts cornerback Lenny Lyles forced Bill Anderson to fumble after the end had snagged a Bart Starr pass. Don Shinnick scooped up the loose ball and reached paydirt with just 21 seconds having come off the clock.

Green Bay rallied to win that game, 13-10 in overtime. No such comeback took place in Philadelphia.

The Packers, unable to get their offense in gear, trailed for 58 minutes, 21 seconds. Never have they floundered longer in a playoff game, coming closest on Jan. 9, 2005 when they played from behind for 58:20 in a 31-17 loss to the Vikings.

Those early birds from the City of Brotherly Love got their initial first down on their first offensive play. They scored a touchdown two plays later.

The Packers, meanwhile, went scoreless in the first half for only the fifth time in the playoffs. They notched their first points – a third-quarter field goal by Brandon McManus – with 39:14 already  in the books.

That’s a long wait. The longest in franchise history. The previous mark had been 36:16 when the 49ers drubbed them 37-20 behind Raheem Mostert’s 220 rushing yards on Jan. 19, 2020.

Jordan Love
(photo by Eric Goska)

The reasons the Pack failed in Philly are many. One shortcoming: a passing game that established an all-time low.

Jordan Love completed 20 of 33 passes for 212 yards. He failed to throw a touchdown pass while pitching three interceptions to earn a passer rating of 41.5.

No passer in Packers playoff history (minimum 15 attempts) had ever sunk so low. Scott Hunter had come the closest with a 52.4 in a 16-3 loss to the Redskins in 1972.

Since 2000, 50 quarterbacks have earned a passer rating below 50 in a playoff game per Stathead at Pro Football Reference. Their combined record in those games was a dismal 7-43.

Love, it appears, was at a loss when his team crossed midfield. In plays run on Green Bay’s side of the field, he completed 17 of 21 throws for 201 yards and one pick (89.6 rating). In Eagles territory, No. 10 completed just 3 of 12 passes for 11 yards with two picks (0.0 rating).

This isn’t to say Love lost the game for Green Bay. Anyone who saw what transpired can recite the litany of errors the Packers made in all three phases of the game.

But Love and the offense needed to play better, even after losing receivers Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed to injury in the third quarter. Because they did not, Green Bay spent what seemed like an eternity in football purgatory.

Extra point: Hurts became the first quarterback to throw a touchdown pass on his initial pass attempt against Green Bay in a playoff game. Two non-quarterbacks – running back Dan Reeves in the Ice Bowl and punter Jon Ryan in Seattle – reached the end zone on their first and only throws in 1967 and 2015, respectively.

Behind the 8 Ball
The four playoff games in which the Packers trailed for more than 55 minutes.

Trail	Date	Opponent	Result
58:21	Jan. 12, 2025	Eagles	GB lost, 10-22
58:20	Jan. 9, 2005	Vikings	GB lost, 17-31
57:41	Dec. 26, 1965	Colts	GB won, 13-10 (OT)
56:07	Jan. 8, 1995	Cowboys	GB lost, 9-35

2024 Defensive Leaders in +WPA/EPA

 By Nick Webster 

T.J. Watt

Here is a summary of the discussion on defensive statistics in football, crediting Brian Burke for his pioneering work over 15 years ago:

Traditional defensive stats like tackles, sacks, and turnovers forced are limited in scope and typically only measure a single aspect of defensive play. They do not provide a comprehensive view of a player’s defensive contribution. Positive actions (like making a tackle or a sack) can be credited to one player, but missed opportunities or failures by teammates are often not accounted for and defensive plays are frequently team efforts, making it hard to isolate individual performance.

Almost 15 years ago Brian Burke (now of ESPN Stats & Information) in his pioneering Advanced Football Analytics Website suggested using +WPA (Win Probability Added) or +EPA (Expected Points Added, which only considers plays where the defensive player has a positive impact. 

The metric essentially captures playmaking ability; however, it does not account for the "hidden" defensive work like coverage that prevents plays from happening or holding blocks.

In his initial work-up, Burke uses the analogy of a corporation +WPA/EPA is like revenue (positive plays), while -WPA/EPA (negative plays) would be expenses, but we can only directly measure the revenue (positive plays) due to data limitations. 

Luckily, performance distribution in sports often follows a normal curve where an average defender's performance will be symmetric around their mean, with occasional very good or very bad plays. +WPA/EPA can infer overall performance because good defenders are expected to have more positive plays and fewer negative ones.

Done in 2009 Burke presented a list of top defenders based on +WPA for the 2009 season, showing that players like Jonathan Vilma, Patrick Willis, and Darrelle Revis ranked high, aligning with expert opinions and Pro Bowl selections. Suggesting that +WPA/EPA, despite their limitations, identify key playmakers effectively. 

Furthermore, in baseball where it is easier to measure positives and negatives, +WPA correlates strongly with net WPA, suggesting that positive contributions are a good indicator of overall performance. So while +WPA and +EPA do not capture the full spectrum of defensive play, they provide valuable insights into a player's ability to make significant positive contributions and are a useful measure to evaluate defensive performance more objectively overall than traditional stats, as they make it far easier to compare across position groups or even within position groups for players who excel in making different types of impactful plays. 

When Burke joined the ESPN Stats & Information Group several years back, he ceased his freelance work and ceased publishing +WPA/EPA for defenders. Luckily, with publicly available data on NFLFastR we can calculate these metrics for more recent seasons. So, what do they tell us about defenders in 2024?

Among interior defenders, the leader in EPA (the defender who made plays that maximally reduced the likelihood of the offense to score) was highly underrated Miami Dolphins Zach Sieler. He’s the portrait of underrated, a 7th-round pick, from a small school (Ferris State) on his second team who has simply improved with every season and now at 29 is among the league's best. I say among as the cluster at the top of interior linemen for EPA is an extraordinarily tight cluster with <5 EPA separating the top four it would be hard to use this information alone to separate among them.  

Zach Sieler

Noteworthy, Kobie Turner is on the rise on a young L.A. Rams’ defense that boasts a slew of young talent. Calais Campbell is simply incredible at age 38, he’s now six years older than Aaron Donald was when he hung them up, three years older than Joe Greene and Bob Lilly were, two years older than Merlin Olsen and Alan Page were and of all the Hall of Fame defensive tackles only Ernie Stautner and Leo Nomellini were still in the league at that ripe old age.

Calais should join them in the Hall when he finally decides to hang them up. Also noteworthy is Dexter Lawrence who was robbed of his final 5-games due to injury and likely would have joined the group towards the top of this list.

At the top in WPA were the players making plays that most improved their teams’ chance of winning.  Again, imagine a 3rd and 7 sack with the opponent on your own 32, the difference between an almost certain field goal becomes a Punt – if this happens in the fourth quarter in a close game or third quarter in a blowout the EPA is the same, though the former play contributes far more to victory. 

The Seahawks’ Leonard Williams leads in this category, and certainly, his 92-yard interception return TD against the Jets was a big contributor. Recall the play happened with the visiting Jets already up 14 points deep in Seahawk territory about to make it a 21-point lead in the middle of the second quarter, in other words, the play turned a would-be blowout into a Seattle one-TD deficit. In fact, when the clock ran down on the game, the Seahawks won 26-21, a five-point victory when Williams had directly scored 6 points!

Not high on either list is Chris Jones, who will garner All-Pro votes and deservingly so as he draws so much attention that allows lesser-known Chiefs to make plays (say thank you George Karlaftis). But with just five sacks, this might be the year we see Cam Heyward and one of the other Interior Linemen sneak through.

Also impactful without making as many plays is the Eagles’ Jalen Carter. He’s a problem for even the best Centers and Guards to deal with and while he may not ultimately make a play that is credited to him, anyone watching the film can see both the talent and the value. The success of the Eagles’ linebacker core is much thanks to Carter.

For years Edge defender, as it's now commonly called, has been one of the most competitive positions with the AP voting three different Edges a DPOY in each of the last three years with Nick Bosa, T.J. Watt then finally Myles Garrett garnering the award. Throw in Maxx Crosby and Micah Parsons nipping at their tails and this has been a group of five fighting for two All-Pro spots for many years.  This was a bit of a down year for this group, however, so let’s go to the numbers.

In a relatively down year, it’s clear that despite a late-season swoon following his ankle injury TJ Watt made the most plays costing his opponents points and driving his team closer to victory. Let’s take a moment to deal with who isn’t atop the lists, Myles Garrett had, for him, a somewhat less impactful season – and that could be seen in the overall deterioration in the quality of the Browns’ defense. 

Myles Garrett

Injury felled Maxx Crosby and Micah Parsons for meaningful chunks of the season knocking those typical leaders out – and of course, we were robbed of seeing what up-and-comer Aiden Hutchinson could do as he matures to potentially join the topflight. This left TJ at the top, and if you saw him play in the first 14 games, you saw the same on film.

Outside of Watt Greg Rousseau, somewhat similar to Seiler has been consistently improving with every passing year – albeit with the pedigree of a Miami Hurricane picked in the first round. For his length, he plays with great leverage and is excellent at making use of his incredible wingspan. Andrew Van Ginkel and Jonathan Greenard both had outstanding seasons and came in as solid veterans, though one tends to wonder how much of them each breaking out is credit to defensive coordinator Brian Flores whose scheme was the star of the show (until they showed up in Detroit).

Sack leader Trey Hendrickson may appear somewhat lower than many would expect, but he had just 2.5 stuffs (T.J. had 10, Maxx 10.5, Myles 6.5, etc., etc.) and just two FF while Watt led the league in that category with six.  He did make many plays, but ultimately the plays Hendrickson made just didn’t impact the game or come at meaningful times, and perhaps that shows in the play of the Bengals Defense overall and the teams’ poor record considering the performance of their QB.

Off-the-ball LB is a very difficult position to judge because it can be played well in so many different ways. Can you tackle, can you cover, can you make plays in the backfield – are your tackles all downfield (somewhere out there a Jesse Tuggle or dare I say it London Fletcher fan is wincing). Where EPA and WPA are nice tools is that not all tackles are created equally.  A five-yard tackle on 1st and 10 is a win for the offense, on 3rd and 7 it’s a win for the defense and EPA and WPA would reflect it accordingly – the latter creating value for the defender, the former wouldn’t.

The revelation at LB this season was The Eagles’ Zack Baun – boy those Wisconsin Badgers can grow linebackers. He netted the highest EPA of all defenders in the league and was among the best in contributing to wins. This position group highlights one of the interesting things about EPA vs. WPA.  Baun made many plays to stop opponents, but frequently late in the season his team was ahead and protecting leads.

Zach Baun

Meanwhile, Chiefs’ Nick Bolton was good at playmaking by EPA (#10) but as the Chiefs played so many close one-score games his plays were unusually high-leverage. As noted, when discussing interior D-Linemen, both Buan and Bolton probably benefitted from having strong interior linemen who required attention and double teams. Balancing out Baun and Bolton were Zaire Franklin, the Colts’ omnipresent tackling machine and Quincy Williams the Jet who tied a little-known NFL record with five-Stuffs in an otherwise meaningless Week 17 tilt.

Those who watch the game, and know the recent history of the position group won’t be surprised to see Lavonte David (a PFJ favorite and my vote for the most underrated defender of the last 20 years), ageless Bobby Wagner who’s moved up the all-time tackle list (at least since ~1975) to trail only Ray Lewis, London Fletcher and Junior Seau and 49ers superstar Fred Warner on the lists as well. 

Warner would certainly have led the list at the quarter pole, and probably even mid-season but played with less abandon as his teams’ hopes faded. David continued to do some of everything, and though he’s a couple steps slower he’s a step more savvy allowing him to still play at a high level. Wagner may be three steps slower and two steps savvier and probably best contributed to turning around the team culture with a Commanders team in need of leaders.

Cornerback is a difficult position group to measure in this manner, typically a corner that does best will have lots of INTs or PDs and sometimes avoiding being targeted yields very little here.

The leader at CB in both EPA and WPA was the outstanding veteran Marlon Humphrey. Patrick Surtain and Derek Stingley were both among league leaders in passer rating allowed and both show up in EPA as does Byron Murphy a credit to his strong tackling and 6 INT’s. 

Marlon Humphrey

These metrics love Brian Flores’ Defenses as they're designed to make plays, no ‘bend but don’t break’ in Minnesota these days. Carlton Davis had a very good year in Detroit, by some measures his best, and was the main part in shoring up what was last year a huge liability for the Lions, their pass coverage. Few revelations at the CB position though we should credit Humphrey for his continued playmaking at what’s an advanced age at one of the league’s most physically demanding positions.

At safety Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch (somewhat a slot, really a jack-of-all-trades, DB) both stood out in terms of EPA, they both made plays. Again, these two defenders were frequently making plays with their team ahead and with sizable leads so neither even made the top 10 in WPA. Tre’Von Moehrig and Nick Cross represent solid players who are asked to make a disproportionate number of plays on two quite poor defenses.

Kerby Joseph

 C.J. Gardner-Johnson is a difference-maker every time he’s been with the Eagles and made 6 INTs when not frustrating opponents or getting himself ejected. Probably the most interesting case on these lists is Kyle Hamilton, who’s among the most talented safeties in the game but didn’t make a sizable impact in the Ravens’ defense until they shifted to using him deep later in the season. 

The Ravens’ defense clearly improved over the course of the season, but it was abundantly clear early that outside of Marlon Humphrey they couldn’t cover any Wideouts, and subsequently they were gashed in the passing game. To Zach Orr’s credit, he adjusted and took his athletic safety who used to play as a 'rover' near the line of scrimmage and played him more in center field using his range to assist an otherwise challenged CB2 and CB3. This worked very effectively and while not a strength the Ravens’ pass defense is no longer the liability it was early in the year, which bodes well heading into the playoffs.

Hopefully, this gave a different view and a different manner of thinking about defenders and the value they produce. It’s simply not always the case that the leading tackler, sacker or interceptor is the best defender in the NFL, they’re asked to do so many different things and the beauty of the EPA/WPA framework is it weights those things based on the relative impact of the play and the context of the play to understand who the best playmakers are and which playmakers most impacted their teams’ drive to victory.

2024 Pro Football All-Pro Team

 By John Turney 

It's time once again for our annual All-Pro teams and while the wide receiver choices were clear as well as the edge rushers, it was a particularly tough year for defensive interior guys and for the running backs and quarterbacks. 

But we gave it a shot.

Football is situational, enough so that you can't pick just 11 players on offense and defense. There are specialists who deserve mention as well.

This year, rather than go with three wide receivers, we went with two tight ends. A trends lots of teams are moving to. Tight ends will play in the slot, on a wing and out wide -- with the wide receiver moving or motioning to the slot or across the formation. As such we went with 12 personnel and also a fullback. 

We went with a Fangio-style defense, a 3-4 but also with a fifth defensive back who'd come in on passing downs to replace the nose tackle. 

With that preface, here's the PFJ 2024 All-Pro team:

OFFENSE

Lemar Jackson

Receivers

Ja'Marr Chase of the Bengals grabs one spot and the Vikings' Justin Jefferson the others. Chase is won the triple crown (led NFL in receptions, receiving yards and touchdown receptions) and Jefferson is at times uncoverable.

I like George Kittle at tight end. He still gets big numbers but he also blocks. Rookie Brock Bowers is the second tight end. Picture him as the "move" tight end. 

Offensive Line

The right tackle is the Eagles' Lane Johnson in what may be his best-ever season. His backup is Penei Sewell from the Lions. Johnson put on a clinic this year. 

On the left side, we are going with and Rashawn Slater at number two and Tristan Wirfs, the Buc's elite pass protector on the first team. Why elite? Per Pro Football Focus (PFF) he didn't give up a sack and only allowed a dozen pressures all season. Pretty good, huh?

We don't pick guards left- and right. They are too similar and these days left- and right tackle distinctions are breaking down some. But Joe Thuney is one guard and Chris Lindstrom the other.

Thuney played some tackle for the Chiefs. We've picked Thuney in the past several times. Lindstrom, too. Lindstrom can miss a little in pass protection but is a dominant run blocker. 

Tyler Smith, Dallas' left guard is one of the backups and Quinn Meinerz of Denver is the other.  We almost went with Meinerz over Lindstrom—it was neck and neck. If you went the other way, that's okay by us. Both are excellent.

Creed Humphrey is the best center in football this year and if there were an award for offensive lineman of the year it would be between him and Lane Johnson. Take your pick. But on second thought Wirfs might like a word.

Backs

I am going with Lamar Jackson on the first team and Josh Allen on the second. But it could just as easily be the other way around. Jackson has a shot at being the MVP this year, which would be his third. Can a quarterback be a lock for the Hall of Fame after just seven years? 

Lemar had his best passing year—he threw for 41 touchdowns and just four picks. He surpassed 4,000 yards for the first time, led the NFL in yards per attempt and also with his 119.6 passer rating. And that does not even get into the advanced analytics.

At midseason, Josh Allen looked like it would be his year to be MVP and first-team All-Pro. However, Lemar Jackson just kept getting better and better while Allen leveled off somewhat. Regardless, Allen had a great year and still has a chance to get his team to the Super Bowl—and win it. That is what matters most, of course. 

Saquon Barkley is the first-team running back with Derrick Henry the second-teamer. But it could almost be the other way around, too. Jahmyr Gibbs is a super strong honorable mention. He's more apt in today's game because of his receiving prowess but Henry means too much to a surging Ravens team even though he's a throwback kind of running back who only average in catching passes.

I am picking Patrick Ricard as the fullback. He was opening holes for Derrick Henry and even Lemar Jackson in the powerful Ravens' running attack. Kyle Juszczyk does everything for the 49ers. This year he had to block for a lot of backs—everyone was injured. He was not making as many plays as before, which is why he's second-team this year.

Special teams

Brandon Aubrey is the kicker and Logan Cooke is the punter. Cooke led the NFL in a metric we like—"Net Yards Above Average" or NYOA. Aubrey was the pick more of an eye-test pick. He's clutch and can bomb them.

Kavontae Turpin of Dallas is the kick returner and Kalif Raymond is the punt returner. Raymond beats out Denver's Marvin Mims who had a higher average but he also had almost three times as many fair catches. He also had a return for a touchdown and Mims didn't.

The Saints' J.T. Gray is the coverage guy and Brenden Schooler is on the second team. Both cover and both are capable of blocking a kick. 

DEFENSE

Myles Garrett

Line

Myles Garrett is my 4-3 edge defender and I am picking T.J. Watt as the 3-4 edge. Both are in their prime. Watt gutted it out through injuries. Maxx Crosby was in contention but he just missed too much time. Trey Hendrickson had another great year, but in a league with Myles Garrett, it is hard to put him on the first team of a primarily 40 scheme. 

He does beat out guys like Nick Bosa, Danielle Hunter and all the others who roughly play in similar systems. 

T.J. Watt was nicked up late in the season but still produced 11-1/2 sacks and ten run/pass stuffs and six forced fumbles. This year he surpassed the century mark in sacks (he now was 108) in just eight seasons. 

Behind Watt as a more-or-less linebacker edge is Micah Parsons. He's not an off-ball linebacker, but he's not really a defensive end, either. He moves around a lot, almost a joker-type player. It was not his best year but he stands out when you watch him. He does special things.

Give Jared Verse a shout-out. He's second-team All-NFC and was on fire for the first three-fourths of the season. He leveled off some and when his use of hands catches up with his power moves—watch out. 

Dexter Lawrence would be here, too, but missed too much time to be a first-team All-Pro. They will make other teams but we've always gone with players who participated in 75% of the games. Sexy Dexy and Mad Maxx played twelve games each. Thirteen is our minimum. Sorry guys.

So, the interior rushers arethe Chiefs' Chris Jones and Jalen Carter of the Eagles and the shade tackle is Vita Vea who toils in Tampa Bay. Jones is the "rush" tackle and Carter plays in a 3-4 and lines up on the right side just inside a tackle or just outside a guard. 

Vea is shaded on the center most of the time—essentially an A-Gap defender. Though we've seen me move outside on occasion and those reps are fun to watch. We also like his stunts that are coordinated with the inside linebackers that attack the two A-Gaps. Fun stuff.

Cam Heyward had a year worthy of All-Pro, but in a narrow call, we went with Carter as the kind of 4i-5-3-1-tech guy. If someone thinks Heyward had a better season -- fine. Sometimes it's a count flip. 

Denver Broncos defensive interior Zach Allen backs up Chris Jones. Allen led the NFL in quarterback hits (per NFL). Not only that he led defensive interior players in pressures according to PFF, Sports Information Solutions (SIS) and NextGen Stats (NGS) edging Chris Jones by all three sources. 

 But it's also part of the confusion of multiple defensive interior positions. Allen plays a position similar to Jalen Carter's, but on the right side. But late in the year the Broncos were using more and more one-gap calls and Allen was outstanding. 

Honestly, Jalen's game just looked a little better on film. He used club moves, swim moves, bull rushes with ease and drew a lot of extra attention. 

The second-team All-Pro at shade tackle was Grover Stewart of the Colts. He's a supreme run stuffer. 

Honorable mention goes to Zach Sieler who had a good year but was regulated to second-team All-AFC. 

Linebackers

Fred Warner and Zack Baun are the linebackers. Warner was a candidate for Defensive Player of the Year until he cracked an ankle. The 49ers' defense took a step back but Warner didn't.

Everyone noticed how many plays Baun was making early in the season. He's the most improved player in the NFL. He plays off-ball, edge, rushes, covers and makes plays in the backfield on runners. A joy to watch.

Jets linebacker Quincy Williams led the NFL in run/pass stuffs, a PFJ stat with 12 and he forced four fumbles. The Jets defense was great at times and not-so-great late in some games. But when we saw him he was looking like he always did. Using NFL numbers he's averaged 118 tackles, 13 TFLs, 2-1/2 sacks, two forced fumbles, five passes defended and a fumble recovery the last four years. 

He's not quite the second-coming of Lavonte David but even a reasonable facsimile of him is pretty good and Quincy Williams is that. Frankie Luvu was also a contender, the second-team All-NFC off-ball linebacker was between him and Lavonte David.

On the second team behind Fred Warner is Roquan Smith, the Ravens inside 'backer. Ho hum, just another season with over 150 tackles on a hard-nosed defense, of which he is the leader. 

Secondary

The Broncos' Patrick Surtain II bounced back from a subpar year to be the NFL's top corner and Derek Stingley Jr. is the other corner. The Texans' secondary was terrific and Stingley was the top player on it. 

Jesse Bates III is one safety and the other is Brian Branch of the Lions who moved from more of a slot position to safety this year and did well. Kyle Hamilton of the Ravens and Kerby Joseph back those two guys up. 

Budda Baker and Derwin James are also worthy of being second-team. There were just four slots for six great safeties so by narrow margins they have to fall to the All-Conference teams.

Marlon Humphrey of the Ravens is the slot corner with the Colts' Kenny Moore II behind him. Both can play outside but do their damage trying to prevent big plays in the seems. 

*****************************

The formats for the All-NFC and All-AFC teams are a little different than the All-Pro team. The balance of top players at certain positions in each conference skewed the idea. But to keep tradition we picked All-Conferences teams.

Here they are:

TUESDAY TIDBITS: Which Team Earns the Label "Road Warriors"

By TJ Troup 

Just finished doing my yearly podcast for Matthew DiBiase and his show "The Packaged Tourist" where we play out a mythical Super Bowl. This year was the 1964 Buffalo Bills against the Cleveland Browns in Tulane Stadium. After 272 regular season games we begin the tournament. 

Hopefully you are not tired of hearing me ramble on each year about the simple fact that every year since the Wild Card began there has been at least one road victory. 

Ok,folks who wins on the road this year? 

Does not have to be this weekend, yet really believe the Houston Texans will be challenged by the Chargers, and the Rams will have a difficult time beating the Vikings twice in one season.

 The last time the Detroit Lions finished first in the defensive passer rating category was 1954, and with a rating of 82.0 they demonstrated vast improvement over last year in defending the pass. 

Last summer purchased "Lindy's Pro Football" magazine and Howard Balzer wrote up his predictions for the year. Very easy to criticize his picks, yet his write-up for the AFC North is without a doubt a failure. He "picked" the Steelers to finish 4th and last, and the Browns to finish 2nd. While the Bears, Jets, and Jaguars are directionless—the Cleveland Browns are a major disappointment. 

The look on Myles Garrett's face on the bench late in the game tells all. The superb analysis by Orlovsky and Riddick during the broadcast shed light on the sad state in Cleveland. Stefanski keeps his job, and he dismisses some of his assistants as scapegoats. How damn sad. Just damn sad, since the Browns quarterback is in the playoffs with a home game for the Buccaneers. Oh, Baker Mayfield is not on Cleveland? 

Baker Mayfield

Though I could write a book the size of "War & Peace" on the cuddly little soft bears of Chicago, I will make one last statement. My favorite Bears player is in Baltimore at linebacker. Baltimore continues to make superb player personnel decisions, while the Browns could have made the Bears an offer to acquire Mr. Smith. 

Roquan Smith

Enjoy the games this weekend.

2024 Pro Football Journal All-Rookie Team

 By Chris Willis, NFL Films

Jaylen Daniels (left) and Jared Verse (right)

Once again, we present our annual All-Rookie team, selected by Chris Willis, the Head of the NFL Films Producer, the Head of the Research Library, and the resident historian there as well.

OROY – Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders

DROY – Jared Verse, EDGE, Los Angeles Rams