Is Nick Bosa Still Slumping?

 By John Turney 

San Francisco defensive end Nick Bosa, the NFL's reigning Defensive Player of the Year, missed all of training camp and preseason while holding out for a new contract. The All-Pro eventually received it in early September, signing a five-year, $170-million extension that made him the highest-paid defensive player in the NFL ... at least for the time being.

But that was then, and this is now. And now ... at least for the time being ... it's fair to ask: Is Nick Bosa in a slump? After seven games, he has three sacks, the fewest of his three previous injury-free seasons when he had at least seven sacks through seven weeks.

And now? Not even close. 

Some thought the slow start may have been the product of his six-week holdout, but Bosa dismissed the idea, saying he felt "good" and needed only 'a couple of games" to get his body into "football shape." However, after the 49ers' 22-17 loss to Minnesota where they produced no sacks and Bosa's struggles were most evident, critics are beginning to wonder.

After that game, Chase Senior of "49ers Report" posted a video on YouTube entitled, "Nick Bosa & The Defense Need To Step Up!" where he explains that the lack of sacks are not only holding the club back but bear responsibility for San Francisco's two losses.

"I’m not sure how it went for the other three guys," a frustrated Bosa said after San Francisco's latest defeat. "I can only focus on myself, and there was definitely a couple opportunities there where I could have changed the game. I need to do that with the kind of player I’m supposed to be."

The situation was exacerbated after a 31-17 loss at home to the Cincinnati Bengals even though the defense did rebound recording four sacks -- the most by the team since Week 5. The loss took the 49ers to 5-3 after a 5-0 start and is stoking the fire of frustration in the Bay Area to a new level.

Sacks are important and shouldn't be discounted. But they're not the only significant statistic when evaluating edge rushers. Pressures are important, too, and Senior mentioned that they, too, were lacking. 

And he's right.

Because pressures matter. In fact, in 1993 Hall-of-Famer Deacon Jones said he'd rather have pressures and win than have sacks, few pressures and lose.

So let's look at Bosa's pressures this season. We have four analytics sites to use for comparison, and, though they don't agree in totals, Pro Football Focus (PFF), Sports Information Solutions, Sports Radar and NFLGSIS (the NFL's official site) all show Bosa leading the NFL in quarterback knockdowns/hits with 15, 14, 13 and 19 respectively. They also agree that those figures are the most by any player, edge or defensive interior.

So, no slump there, as Bosa's hits and/or knockdowns of quarterbacks are as good as ever.

However, according to all those sites, Bosa's total pressures -- which are a combination of sacks, hits and hurries -- reveal that he's not the league leader. He is among them, with all having him no lower than tied for sixth and as high as third. But he's not first, as he was at the end of last season.

Nevertheless, the site with the most detailed information, PFF, shows that Bosa this year is only two pressures behind his 2022 total and higher than 2019 and 2020 at the same point in the season. So he's just not finishing his hits on quarterbacks, getting there a hair late.

Basically, what were probably sacks then are knockdowns now, and that's a big difference.

With a sack, a loss of yardage and down are involved. But with a pressure, the quarterback can release a pass and complete it. But, even if it is incomplete, it doesn't result in lost yardage and stops a clock that a defense may want to keep running -- especially if it has a lead and is trying to prevent a comeback. Sacks can also result in a forced fumble, putting the ball in play for a turnover and a potential scoop-and-score.

In that vein, the 49ers were victims of a questionable call two weeks ago in their loss to Cleveland. Browns' quarterback P.J. Walker was hit for what looked like a strip sack, with Bosa picking up the ball. But rather than let the play continue, officials blew it dead before it was determined to be an incomplete pass (to no one) and, later, intentional grounding.

That happened late in the second quarter, so that when the 49ers got the ball back after a monster Cleveland punt, there was little time to capitalize on what seemed a dubious ruling. That was bad luck, an example of life in the NFL where what might have been a big play was not. Specifically, a game-impacting play was erased, an example of where stats can be so misleading they contribute to the perception of a slump.

So let's ask this again: Is there one going on with Nick Bosa? 

Probably. 

Again, according to PFF, the 49ers' defense averaged 26 total pressures a game for the first three starts this year but slipped to just under 20 for the last five. So there has been a dropoff. At the same time, the former Ohio State All-American isn't making as many splash plays as the NFL's highest-paid defender should. He's still playing at an elite level, but not at a Defensive Player-of-the-Year-level as he did at this juncture last year.

His first half of 2023 is more like a major-league baseball hitter who hits .345 one year and is down to .320 the next. It's still good, but any dropoff is noticed. In 1955, for example, the legendary Willie Mays hit .319 and led the National League in home runs, but he fell to fourth in the MVP voting (not receiving a single first-place vote) though his overall stats exceeded the three players ahead of him. 

Of course, the year before was his first MVP season.

While not a perfect analogy -- the Giants fell from first to third -- it illustrates that the difference between the best and one of the best is small. Tiny even. And in a league where only a handful of edge players are as talented as Bosa, any dropoff is perceptible and can be -- albeit unfairly -- labeled a slump.

But things can change. 

Bosa can explode in the second half of the season. He's proven he's capable. And while he's admitted to not playing to his own standards, that may serve as motivation for him to turn sacks into strip sacks, quarterback hits into sacks, hurries into quarterback hits and non-hurries into hurries. Just one degree of improvement on a play can make a big difference.

Like all elite edge rushers in the NFL -- Myles Garrett, Micah Parsons and Maxx Crosby, to name a few -- Bosa, almost weekly, is chipped, double-teamed and held by opponents without getting calls. But it is his responsibility, along with his linemates, to find solutions.

Will he? Great players like Nick Bosa usually do and with the addition of Chase Young who the 49ers acquired at the trade deadline for a third-round pick, he should get some help on the opposite edge.