As of Right Now Has Matthew Stafford Done Enough to Earn a Gold Jacket?

By John Turney 

Matthew Stafford

When Houston's C.J. Stroud, the NFL's reigning Offensive Player of the Year, was asked last week about the kind of career he might want to have, he was given the choice of Aaron Rodgers or Eli Manning.

He chose Manning.

"You want the rings, dawg," he said on the "Million Dollaz Worth of Game" podcast. "Eli got two."

Rodgers is a four-time MVP and one-time Super Bowl winner, but Stroud is old school. And he thinks rings are the thing.

But that's not all. He had more to say, suggesting that had former Detroit Lions' quarterback Matthew Stafford -- now with the L.A. Rams -- been on the Packers, he would have won more than Rodgers' one NFL championship. 

"If you gave Matthew Stafford a chance like Aaron Rodgers," he said, "I guarantee you: He might've had more rings ... three or four."

Of course, that's his opinion, but it makes for a lively debate when talking about Stafford's career from a Hall-of-Fame perspective. Furthermore, it begs the question: Has Matthew Stafford done enough -- at this point in his career-- to be a Hall of Famer?

What do you think?

Supporters, like Stroud, point out that Stafford was not in a good situation for most of his career in Detroit, and that's true. The Lions' 2009 first-overall pick, he took over a terrible team that was 0-16 the year before he was drafted and had, at least for much of his career, a defense that was as mediocre as its run game.

Yet Stafford endeared himself to fans in and out of Detroit with his moxy and courage, beginning his rookie season when he led the Lions to victory over Cleveland. After taking a vicious hit to his left shoulder -- one that would have sidelined most guys -- he not only didn't miss a play; he threw the game-winning touchdown pass.

An NFL Films microphone revealed how much pain Stafford experienced. But it also caught him telling then-offensive coordinator Scott Linehan, "I can throw the ball if you need me to throw the ball," demonstrating a trait of great quarterbacks.

Toughness.

By his third year, the Lions were in the playoffs, one of only three appearances they made in Stafford's 12 seasons in Detroit. However, they were one-and-done in all three ... which, considering their history, should surprise no one. Most of the time during Stafford's tenure, the Lions were losers. His record with them was 74-90-1 in the regular season, 0-3 in the playoffs.

But that obscures a significant stat documented by Pro Football Reference: In 44 of those 74 victories, Stafford was credited with the game-winning drive, suggesting another trait of great quarterbacks.

He was clutch.

Nevertheless, for most of Stafford's career with the Lions, they were a second-tier franchise, and, yeah, I know, critics will tell you that's life in the NFL and truly great players overcome adversity. They might also add that he should've won at least one of his three playoff opportunities.

Fair enough. 

But that's not the end of the story. After bowing out of the 2020 playoffs, the Rams decided to upgrade their quarterback situation with someone better than Jared Goff ... even someone who was elite, first looking to Green Bay. 

"They made a run at Aaron Rodgers," said Sam Farmer of the Los Angeles Times, "and the Packers were adamant that they weren't trading him."

So the Rams took the next best option and sent Goff -- the 2016 first overall draft pick -- to the Lions, along with a pile of premium draft picks, for the then 33-year-old Stafford. The deal worked wonders for both teams, with the Rams winning a Super Bowl and the Lions using the draft capital to build a playoff team around Goff.

That Super Bowl win changed the Stafford narrative, with observers suddenly describing him as an excellent -- but not truly elite -- quarterback who could be in a Gold Jacket conversation some day. But in talking to several Hall-of-Fame selectors at Super Bowl LVIII in Las Vegas, I found that he doesn't have much support ... albeit from a small sample.

The sense I got is that they thought the former Georgia Bulldog has Hall-of-Fame skills -- rare arm talent, for example -- but that in an era where passing numbers pile up quickly, his numbers needed to be examined in the context of the era.

However, I also found a member of the media who disagreed but is not a Hall voter ... and that's the NFL Network's Rich Eisen.

"Tell me who throws a better spiral than Matthew Stafford ... consistently," he said on "The Rich Eisen Podcast. "Matthew Stafford is on a Hall-of-Fame path right now. I fully believe it. He's got statistics for it. He's got a trophy for it. If he gets another trophy, I think we're done."

He went on to list other qualifications, including throwing to two Triple Crown receivers, Hall-of-Famer Calvin Johnson and the Rams' Cooper Kupp, with Eisen identifying that as evidence that Stafford "makes the guys around him better."

OK, that's one view. But there's another, voiced the year before by Nick Wright -- another non-voting member of the media -- on the national "First Things First" show.

"The Hall of Fame," he said, "cannot just be a bunch of quarterbacks and Aaron Donald. And I guess J.J. Watt can come in, too, and Randy Moss. Guys, it's the Hall of Fame. And while there is no specific checkmark-based criteria, I think we can all agree (that) to be a Hall of Famer, can you maybe be consistently one of ... I don't know ... the five best currently playing at your own position?

"Matt Stafford has not been that throughout his career. Matt Stafford is a very nice player. But Matt Stafford, I want to tell you guys, in his career he has been an All-Pro zero times. He's been a Pro Bowler once. … Same as Mac Jones now. Unbelievable."

Ouch.

So who's right? Maybe neither. It seems more like a jury-is-still-out situation.

Stafford turns 36 this season, so he'll be around a while to add to the evidence a Hall-of-Fame jury will weigh. In fact, he's seeking an adjustment in guaranteed money to his $160-million contract, which runs through 2026. Granted, having dealt with chronic injuries to his back and arm, he's not the picture of health. But he's not gimpy either. He can move within the pocket and, when healthy, make throws few others can.

So there's no indication he can't have more seasons playing at a high level. Quarterbacks Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Kurt Warner, Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers and others had success after their 36th birthday.

So why not Stafford?

Besides, he may not have to be what he was to be successful.  The Rams are reloading on both sides of the ball, and that includes a strong offensive line to protect their aging passer. It's designed to facilitate a strong rushing attack, which could take pressure off Stafford and open up the play-action game. Plus, don't forget that Kupp is still around, and they have a bright young star in Puka Nacua, last year's Offensive Rookie of the Year runner-up. 

The point is that Stafford has a chance to "do more" to increase his chances of reaching Canton.

If he finishes his contract reasonably healthy, at his current rate of production he'd be approaching 70,000 career passing yards and could surpass 400 career touchdowns. He could add to his pair of Pro Bowls and, most importantly, improve his playoff record by making another deep playoff run or two.

And that's important. Because what do we remember about Matthew Stafford and the playoffs? In the 2021 NFC divisional round game vs. Tom Brady's Tampa Bay Bucs, he made a career throw to Kupp that went for 44 yards and put the Rams in field-goal position to win. Then, in Super Bowl LVI, he made a no-look throw to Kupp on the game-winning drive that ended with a one-yard touchdown to -- who else? -- Kupp.

Those are signature moments that voters look at, and a few more would help Stafford's cause.

Look, if the Hall were based on talent alone, Stafford would be, as Eisen suggests, a sure-fire candidate. His intangibles are also off the charts. Who throws better no-look passes? Maybe only Patrick Mahomes and Rodgers. Who has a better arm in league history? Perhaps Bert Jones, John Elway, Michael Vick and Rodgers? And perhaps not. 

But the Hall is not a pro personnel evaluation. It if were, Jones and Vick would be in. It's an evaluation by voters of a player's achievements, and they will ask questions like: Was he ever the best at his position? How many times was he an All-Pro? Was he ever an MVP or a top-three quarterback in his own conference? 

In those areas, Stafford lacks.

But he has what Hall-of-Fame quarterbacks Dan Marino, Dan Fouts and Warren Moon dream of -- the precious ring -- and that's a plus because voters will also ask, "Did he win?" Once he was given a chance in Los Angeles, Matthew Stafford did. 

Still, he's no more than a borderline case for Canton, though that can change. If he "does more" -- and he has the ability, the team and the opportunity -- he could move some voters from one side of the room to the other. 

The denouement will make all the difference. Stay tuned.