Historic Seasons By Running Backs With No Chance at MVP

 By John Turney 

Saquon Barkley (left) and Derrick Henry (right)

When running back Derrick Henry ran through the Houston Texans on Wednesday, he did more than deliver a late Christmas present to Baltimore Ravens' fans. 

He made history.

Henry ran 27 times that evening for 147 yards in a 31-2 victory that catapulted the Ravens into first place in the AFC North. But he did more than that. He moved past 300 carries for this season and increased his rushing total to 1,783 yards. He also pushed his yards-per-rush to an impressive 5.8 yards.

Wait. Did I say impressive? How about rare?

Among running backs with 300 or more carries in a season, only four -- Barry Sanders (6.1 YPC in 1997), O.J. Simpson (6.0 in 1973), Adrian Peterson (6.0 in 2012) and Saquon Barkley (5.9 this year) -- have higher figures. Furthermore, only six additional backs ended a season with an average of 5.5 yards per carry and 300 or more totes.

That's a total of 11, and, yes, that's pretty rare.

But there's something else that's notable: Sanders, Simpson and Peterson were all AP NFL MVPs in those seasons. But that was then; this is now, and now neither Henry nor Barkley has more than a long shot of being the league MVP. A running back winning the award is almost a thing of the past, and the reason is clear.

Analytics. 

The prevailing thought is that, because the passing game is so much more valuable to winning, no running back has as much value as an average NFL quarterback. Running backs are seen as interchangeable, and if you don't believe me, look what the New York Giants did after last season.

They let Barkley walk because of a reported "positional value,"  which is a convenient way of saying that running backs don't warrant the money they did in the past. Fortunately for Philadelphia fans, the Eagles didn't buy into that idea and signed Barkley to a three-year, $37.75 million contract.

Now, he's within 268 yards of breaking Eric Dickerson's single-season rushing record. 

Now, let's make something clear: The notion that quarterback is the most important position in football is indisputable. It's a fact. But it's also nothing new. It's been the case for over half a century ... if not longer. Former Lions' and Steelers' coach Buddy Parker, for example, wrote that quarterback was the most important position in football in his 1955 book, "We Play to Win.".

Nevertheless, the NFL was still a running game until the 1980s, so running backs were still MVPs ... and deservedly so. But the last one was Peterson in 2012, and he may be the last, period. He's the only non-quarterback to win the award since 2006. But that doesn't mean backs or receivers should be excluded from consideration. If the MVP were determined just by "the numbers," a computer could spit out the names of players with top "value."

But they're just numbers.

The AP panel is composed of voters who know football and use their heads. They see the games and talk to coaches, players and GMs -- and all can ... and should ... be used IN ADDITION to numbers as part of the analysis. More than a single criterion matters to voters I've spoken to over the years, and, while they may be in the minority, analytics are not going to take votes out of their hands.

With the AP's NFL's MVP determined by voting on a 10-5-3-2-1 basis (which began in 2022), it seems likely that Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen battle for first-and second-place votes, with Barkley and Henry in line next. At least, that's how I view what obviously is a fluid situation.

Jackson has better numbers this year than in 2023 when he won his second AP NFL MVP, and his team is on a roll. The Ravens won their last three game by outscoring opponents, 100-33. While Allen has been the favorite since midseason, Jackson's performances the past few weeks may have made the award his to lose. The point is: The race looks like a two-headed one between (what else?) quarterbacks.

So that leaves the AP NFL Offensive Player of the Year for Henry and Barkley, and there they have more of an opportunity. But, with both having "MVP-level" seasons, we have to ask: Which will be the AP All-Pro running back? Remember: Voters can only choose one. And will either be the OPOY? Or could one be the first-team All-Pro and the other the league's Offensive Player of the Year?

Given the voting format that is a possibility. 

So which of the two would you pick? And how do you separate them? Not only are they battling for postseason acclaim; they could meet in Super Bowl LIX, too.

That's a long way of saying that Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley are producing such magnificent seasons that they could change the thinking prevalent in today's NFL by demonstrating the difference between an average starter and MVP/OPOY-type back is significant. 

In the meantime, appreciate two running backs producing gargantuan numbers in a season that will be remembered as one of the best ever by running backs. In fact, I cannot think of many, if any, seasons where two backs had this kind of year at the same time. 

They are in rarified air, and here's the proof: What follows is a list of players with 300 or more carriers and a 5.5 or higher yards-per-carry average: 

Rank, player, season, carries, yards, yards per carry, rushing touchdowns

1. Barry Sanders, 1997—335-2,053, 6.1, 11

2. O.J. Simpson, 1973—332, 2,003, 6.0, 12

    Adrian Peterson, 2012—348, 2,097, 6.0, 12

4. Saquon Barkley, 2024 (through 16 weeks)—314, 1,838, 5.9, 13

5. Derrick Henry, 2024, (through 17 weeks)—305, 1,783, 5.8, 14

6. Barry Sanders, 1994—331, 1,883, 5.7, 7

7. Chris Johnson, 2009—358, 2,006, 5.6, 14

    Eric Dickerson, 1984—379, 2015, 5.6, 14

8. O.J. Simpson, 1975—329, 1,817, 5.5, 16

    Walter Payton, 1977—339, 1,852, 5.5, 14

    Jonathan Taylor, 2021—332, 1,811, 5.5, 18

Without question, Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry are in elite company. Maybe ... OK, probably ... they aren't named this season's league MVPs, but that doesn't diminish their value. Their importance is undeniable.