By John Turney 
With seven-time Pro Bowl receiver Julio Jones officially announcing his retirement earlier this month after an impressive 13-season career, he becomes eligible for the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 2029. We know he'll be enshrined. That's not a question. But will it happen in his first year of eligibility?
It’s not guaranteed.
Here’s why: While his first nine seasons were exceptional—among the best ever -- his final years were not. There was a decline, and take a look: From 2011-19, the sixth overall pick of the 2011 draft averaged 108 receptions, 1,636 receiving yards and eight touchdowns per 17 games. Through 2019, no receiver in the history of the NFL outpaced his 96.2 receiving yards per game. In fact, relatively speaking, no one was close.
Among players with 400 or more receptions, Michael Thomas trailed at 87.5 yards per game, followed by Odell Beckham Jr. at 86.8, Hall-of-Famer Calvin Johnson at 86.1 and Antonio Brown at 86.0. No one else topped 81 yards per game. In a golden era of receivers -- one opened by a myriad of rule changes -- Jones led by nearly nine yards per game, seemingly crafting a first-ballot case.
But that was then. Now, it’s different.
From 2020-23, injuries sidelined him for 27 games over four years, and his 17-game averages dropped to a pedestrian 50 catches, 671 yards, and four touchdowns.
Ouch.
I understand that declines are nearly universal for receivers as their careers wind down. It happened to Jerry Rice, Randy Moss, Lance Alworth and virtually everyone but former Packers' great Don Hutson. He was an exception, retiring before World War II ended.
The key difference is timing. For most, the productivity drop-off hits in their mid-30s, though Rice stretched it to around 40. But Julio Jones? His slide started earlier, which sets him apart from that typical arc. The drop was also steep and sudden-- beginning when he was 31 and forcing him from the game at 34. That suggests his body deteriorated earlier than anticipated, impacting his career totals in key receiving stats.
Among all-time receivers, he ranks 16th in yards, 27th in receptions and is tied for 56th in touchdown catches. Those are stellar numbers, but none crack the top 10 ... and some don’t even reach the top 15 or 20. That kind of resume, while impressive, likely means he won’t stroll into the Hall of Fame with the effortless swagger of a Rice or Moss. Even his yards receiving-per-game mark, once the best ever, fell to 82.5 -- which is still fifth but not substantially above others as it was before.
Don't get me wrong, Julio Jones’ case for Hall of Fame induction remains rock-solid. He’ll ace the eye test, with voters who watched him not forgetting a freakish athleticism that often left defensive backs helpless and was evident as far back as his workouts at the annual NFL scouting combine.
There, the 6-3, 220-pound University of Alabama star clocked a 4.34 40, scored a 38.5-inch vertical jump and ranked above the 90th percentile among wide receivers in weight, arm length, 10-and-20-yard splits, 40-yard dash and broad jump. No surprise, then, that he immediately drew comparisons to Calvin Johnson, arguably the greatest athlete ever at the position. Jones might not have reached Johnson’s stratosphere, but he was close. That raw dominance is not easy to forget.
It was enough that former Falcons' coach Dan Quinn, now with Washington, told Sports Illustrated that Jones' midair body control reminded him of "a cat thrown from high" ... that his competitiveness was like "that of a boxer who gets punched and then goes harder" ... and his speed was "that of an Olympic sprinter."
"Julio could be a world champ at anything," former Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan told SI. "Boxing. Sprinting. Baseball. Whatever he wanted."
Coaches, players and fans agreed. They voted him to seven Pro Bowls in his first nine seasons. He was also first-team All-Pro in 2014 (The Sporting News), 2015 (AP, PFWA, TSN), 2016 (AP, PFWA, TSN), 2017 (TSN), 2018 (PFWA) and 2019 (PFWA) and on AP's second-team in 2017-19. Moreover, he was named to the 2010s' all-decade team. No receiver in that decade had more receiving yards and only one had more catches.
Jones’ dominance is underscored by eight appearances on the NFL’s Top 100 list, a player-voted ranking of the league’s best. In all eight, he landed in the top 30. However, what stands out is that four times he landed the top 10, including twice in the top four. That’s a testament to how his peers viewed him at the height of his career -- consistently elite, and at times, among the absolute best in the game.
If not THE best.
But that's not all. Julio Jones was a postseason beast, hauling in 77 catches for 992 yards across 11 playoff games. Stretch that to a 17-game average, and it’s jaw-dropping: 119 receptions, 1,533 yards and 11 touchdown catches. Those are first-team All-Pro-caliber stats and proof that, when the stakes were highest, he delivered at an elite level.
He made it to one Super Bowl but fell victim to Tom Brady's magic ... and no need to recite the details. Suffice it to say that after leading New England, 28-3, in Super Bowl LI, the Falcons never scored again -- losing in overtime, 34-28. So, he never won a ring, but he’s hardly alone. First-ballot receivers like Moss, Calvin Johnson and Steve Largent never won one, either. It's not a first-ballot dealbreaker.
Besides, his body of work stands tall without it.
Look at the absurd number of huge games he had. There were five 180-yard games in the regular season, plus two more in the playoffs. Only Alworth, Rice, Tyreek Hill and Antonio Brown have more such performances. Then there are the three 250-plus yard performances -- more than anyone ever, including a 300-yard masterpiece. Only six players in 125 NFL years have hit that mark.
Those monster days aren’t just memorable numbers; they’re statements, and they put him in rarefied air.
The bottom line is this: In all likelihood, Julio Jones didn't sustain greatness long enough to be a first-ballot inductee. But few have. Just eight, in fact; Hutson (in the Hall's initial 1963 class), Raymond Berry, Paul Warfield, Rice, Alworth, Largent, Moss and Calvin Johnson. However, in five years the ethos of the Hall's board of selectors may shift. Voters may look more at peak performance than compiled stats ... and, if that happens, Jones' chances improve.
Let's talk again in February, 2029.
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