Sunday, November 29, 2015

QB Hits and the Breakout of Ziggy Ansah . . .

. . . and you never thought you'd be reading about Jimmy Clausen!
by Nick Webster

On Thanksgiving Day the country was delivered a treat, turkey and stuffing aside, we were all given the rare opportunity – outside of the state of Michigan – to witness the continued break-out of Lions DE Ziggy Ansah.  Ansah, a highly drafted project out of BYU, has been trending upward for much of the last few seasons –but few saw Thursday coming.  But Ansah (prior to Thursday) was still having a season a level above any of his previous performances, and you could see it coming, maybe it wasn’t the sacks, maybe it was the non-Sack hits. 



The NFL has been tracking QB Hits1 by defenders for a number of years now, but the final counts presented in the box scores and elsewhere2 included hits on QB Sacks.  As such, the QB Hit statistics essentially double counted QB Sacks, and the list so closely tracked the Sack list so as to not add value.  However, by removing QB Hits on QB Sacks we can get a sense of who is getting pressure and just not quite getting to the QB.  And in 2014, that was Ziggy Ansah.

Ziggy Ansah











Year
Age
G
GS
Sk
Rk
QB Hit
Rk
Tkl
Ast
FF
Stf
Rk
24
14
12
8
35th
4
>50th
17
13
2
2
253rd
25
16
16
7.5
31st
16
3rd
39
12
3
7.5
25th
26
10
10
8
4th
15
2nd
27
5
4
3
85th
Career

41
39
23.5

35

83
30
9
12.5


Clearly, in this case, the QB Hits in 2014 portended sacks in 2015.  And another breakout pass rusher Carlos Dunlap, who was 3rd in the league in QB Sacks heading into Week 12 of 2015 ranked 2nd in the NFL in non-Sack QB Hits in 2014.

But what is the value of a QB hit in and of itself?  Absent a sack, the play goes on, but what do those plays look like?  Clearly – the numbers suggest – there is value in hitting the Quarterback.  So far in 2015 QB Hits have been registered on 9.9% of all non-sack drop-backs, providing for a meaningful sample of 1,152 passes where the QB was hit and the numbers are far worse on those drop-back than when a QB was relatively unmolested.

NFL Passing when Hit 2015 – to Week 11
Situation
Att
Comp
%Comp
Yds
Y / A
TD
%TD
Int
%Int
Pass Rate
AY / A3
League Tot
11,669
7,367
63.1%
80,107
6.9
535
4.6%
286
2.5%
88.4
6.7
When Hit
1,152
497
43.1%
6,786
5.9
51
4.4%
46
4.0%
60.7
5.0
Not Hit
10,517
6,870
65.3%
73,321
7.0
484
4.6%
240
2.3%
91.4
6.9
Difference
-22.2%
-1.1
-0.2%
1.7%
-30.7
-1.9

The passer rating of 60.7 suggests that any average QB, when hit, turns in to essentially the worst starting QB in the league.  The table below shows the top, and bottom, qualified QB’s in 2015 sorted by Passer Rating and a mythical QB “2015 When Hit”.  The NFL’s last qualified starter to have a lower passer rating than “2015 When Hit” was Jimmy Clausen as the starter for the 2010 Panthers with a 58.4.



Individual Passers 2015 – to Week 11
Rk
Player
Att
Cmp
%Comp
Yds
Y/A
TD
%TD
Int
%Int
Rate
1
339
217
64
3066
9
27
8
9
2.7
108.6
2
409
271
66.3
3320
8.1
25
6.1
4
1
107.4
3
335
218
65.1
2738
8.2
20
6
5
1.5
104
4
370
257
69.5
2972
8
20
5.4
9
2.4
101.3
5
212
144
67.9
1669
7.9
11
5.2
4
1.9
100.9
6
341
216
63.3
2565
7.5
21
6.2
6
1.8
99.4
7
420
288
68.6
3211
7.6
19
4.5
8
1.9
98.2
8
390
236
60.5
2684
6.9
24
6.2
4
1
97.4
9
211
141
66.8
1887
8.9
10
4.7
7
3.3
97
10
384
248
64.6
2700
7
21
5.5
6
1.6
96.9












23
314
183
58.3
2405
7.7
15
4.8
9
2.9
86.5
24
413
266
64.4
2791
6.8
14
3.4
12
2.9
83.1
25
335
214
63.9
2297
6.9
11
3.3
10
3
82.4
26
386
218
56.5
2623
6.8
20
5.2
12
3.1
81.8
27
322
188
58.4
2199
6.8
16
5
11
3.4
81.5
28
244
144
59
1615
6.6
6
2.5
5
2
78.5
29
256
145
56.6
1678
6.6
7
2.7
6
2.3
75.9
30
293
162
55.3
1881
6.4
15
5.1
12
4.1
74.9
31
322
193
59.9
2180
6.8
9
2.8
17
5.3
67.6
32
147
78
53.1
770
5.2
3
2
4
2.7
63.6
33
1,152
497
43.1
6,786
5.9
51
4.4
46
4.0
60.7

2015 Defensive QB Hit Leaders – to Week 11

Rk
Player
Hit
1
J.WATT
22
2
E.ANSAH
15
3
O.VERNON
15
4
V.MILLER
13
5
L.WILLIAMS
12
6
J.ALLEN
11
7
C.AVRIL
11
8
A.CLAYBORN
11
9
C.DUNLAP
11
10
E.GRIFFEN
11
11
A.LYNCH
11
12
P.MCPHEE
11
13
F.RUCKER
11
14
M.BENNETT
10
15
C.CAMPBELL
10
16
M.JOHNSON
10
17
C.MATTHEWS
10
18
R.NINKOVICH
10
19
M.WILKERSON
10
20
Many Tied
9


1       1  The NFL Definition of QB Hit requires that the Passer is taken to the ground, this may be conservative, but assists in removing judgement
2      2   For seasons prior to 2015 Total QB Hits (including sack plays) can be found on Advanced Football Analytics, Brian Burke’s excellent site.  Alas, ESPN Stats and Information hired Burke in 2015 and the site is no longer maintained.  Non-sack Hits can usually be derived by subtracting sacks from Hits and adding back FF’s – half sacks should be treated as whole sacks for the purpose of this calculation.  Addr: http://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/index.php/home/stats/defensive-players/defensive-ends

3     3    AY / A = Adjusted Yards per Attempt is (Yards + TD’s *20 – Int * 45) / Attempts.  Similar to the NEWS QB rating offered in the classic, The Hidden Game of Football by Carroll, Palmer and Thorn.