Handicapping the HOF Class of 2023

By Clark Judge 

The Pro Football Hall of Fame on Tuesday named its 28 modern-era semifinalists for the Class of 2023, and if 28 seems like an odd number it’s because it is. Under normal circumstances, the cut from 129 preliminary candidates should yield 25 semifinalists.

But not this time.

Because of ties, the Hall has more semifinalists for the Class of 2023 than any class at any time in its history. Twice it had 27 but never 28 … that is, until now.

And who are they? The envelope, please:

Eric Allen, CB. 1988-94 (Philadelphia); 1995-97 (New Orleans); 1998-2001 (Oakland Raiders);

Jared Allen, DE. 2004-07 (Kansas City); 2008-13 (Minnesota); 2014-15 (Chicago); 2015 (Carolina).

Willie Anderson, T. 1996-2007 (Cincinnati); 2008 (Baltimore).

Ronde Barber, CB/S. 1997-2012 (Tampa Bay).

Anquan Boldin, WR. 2003-09 (Arizona); 2010-12 (Baltimore); 2013-15 (San Francisco); 2016 (Detroit).

Henry Ellard, WR. 1983-93 (L.A. Rams); 1994-98 (Washington); 1998 (New England).

Jahri Evans, G. 2006-16 (New Orleans); 2017 (Green Bay).

London Fletcher, LB. 1998-2001 (St. Louis); 2002-06 (Buffalo); 2007-13 (Washington).

Dwight Freeney, DE. 2002-12 (Indianapolis); 2013-14 (San Diego); 2015 (Arizona); 2016 (Atlanta); 2017 (Seattle, Detroit).

James Harrison, LB. 2002-12 (Pittsburgh); 2013 (Cincinnati); 2014-17 (Pittsburgh); 2017 (New England).

Rodney Harrison, S. 1994-02 (San Diego); 2003-08 (New England).

Devin Hester, PR/KR/WR. 2006-13 (Chicago); 2014-15 (Atlanta); 2016 (Baltimore).

Torry Holt, WR. 1999-2008 (St. Louis); 2009 (Jacksonville).

Andre Johnson, WR. 2003-14 (Houston); 2015 (Indianapolis); 2016 (Tennessee).

Albert Lewis, CB. 1983-93 (Kansas City); 1994-98 (L.A./ Oakland Raiders).

Robert Mathis, DE.2003-16 (Indianapolis).

Darrelle Revis, CB. 2007-12 (N.Y. Jets); 2013 (Tampa Ba); 2014 (New England); 2015-16 (N.Y .Jets); 2017 (Kansas City).

Steve Smith, WR. 2001-13 (Carolina); 2014-16 (Baltimore).

Fred Taylor, RB. 1998-2008 (Jacksonville); 2009-10 (New England).

Joe Thomas, T. 2007-17 (Cleveland).

Zach Thomas, LB. 1996-2007 (Miami); 2008 (Dallas).

Hines Ward, WR. 1998-2011 (Pittsburgh).

DeMarcus Ware, LB. 2005-13 (Dallas); 2014-16 (Denver).

Ricky Watters, RB. 1992-94 (San Francisco); 1995-97 (Philadelphia); 1998-2001 (Seattle).

Reggie Wayne, WR. 2001-14 (Indianapolis).

Vince Wilfork, DT. 2004-14 (New England); 2015-16 (Houston).

Patrick Willis, LB. 2007-14 (San Francisco).

Darren Woodson, S. 1992-2003 (Dallas).

Included are five candidates in their first years of eligibility (Evans, Freeney, James Harrison, Revis and Joe Thomas), seven wide receivers (eight, if you include return specialist Devin Hester) and 19 individuals who were semifinalists for the Class of 2022.  The group will now be reduced to 15 (no ties this time) by the Hall’s board of 49 selectors, with results announced sometime in early January.

So who makes it? Keep reading.

LOCKS AND FRONTRUNNERS

Tackle Joe Thomas and cornerback Darrelle Revis are two of the five candidates in their first years of eligibility, and they’re not only certainties to make the next cut; they’re likely first-ballot inductees. You can also book the five leftovers from this year’s Top 10 vote, which means Ronde Barber, Devin Hester, Zach Thomas, Andre Johnson and DeMarcus Ware are virtual certainties, too. But that’s where it gets fuzzy. Of the five who didn’t make the first cut from 15 to 10 last year, linebacker Patrick Willis and pass rusher Jared Allen are the most likely to return. In fact, I can see Willis moving into the Top Ten for the Class of 2023. Then there’s Willie Anderson, a right tackle who this year broke through for the first time. I’d hope he returns and believe he will. But he’s iffy. Finally, we have wide receivers Reggie Wayne and Torry Holt, and here’s where there could be a speed bump. Two reasons: 1) The glut of wide receivers in this class; and 2) their failure to move forward in three years as finalists. Each failed to make the cut from 15 to 10 in each of the past three years. Worse, Johnson passed them this year in his first year of eligibility. That suggests that neither has momentum. At some point, the logjam at wide receiver has to break, and maybe this is the year.

ON THE BUBBLE

The most intriguing question here has to do with two former teammates: Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. Both were star pass rushers for the Indianapolis Colts, and either or both could push into to upper echelon. Mathis was a semifinalist in his first year of eligibility (2022) but that’s where his candidacy stopped. Freeney is in his first year of eligibility and may have the momentum Mathis lacked this year. However, the two are remarkably close in credentials. Mathis was a first-team All-Pro, five-time Pro Bowler and three-time season leader in forced fumbles.  He had 54 in his career, along with 123 sacks. Freeney was a first-team All-Pro three times, a seven-time Pro Bowler and all-decade choice who finished with 125-1/2 career sacks and 47 forced fumbles. Both are in the Colts’ Ring of Honor and could cancel each other out. My guess? Freeney moves forward; Mathis does not. Freeney had more All-Pro and Pro Bowl designations and was chosen to an all-decade team. I’d include wide receiver Steve Smith in this group, too, mostly because he has the resume voters love: Two All-Pro first teams, five Pro Bowls and the rare receiving Triple Crown in 2005 (the league leader in receptions, yards receiving and touchdown catches). The problem for Smith is the obstacle all receivers face here: gridlock. There are too many at one position with similar qualifications … but that’s where Smith gets separation. He’s the only Triple Crown winner. If there’s a dark horse here, I’ll take cornerback Albert Lewis. I know, this is only his second turn as a semifinalist (he made it in 2013). But that’s why I favor him. There’s been a lot of buzz about him lately, and it must have resonated with voters. They brought him back after passing on him for nine years. Plus, this is his last year of eligibility as a modern-era candidate, and that could help. Sam Mills was elected in his last year in 2022. Clay Matthews was a Top 10 finalist in 2021, his last year of eligibility and his first as a finalist. There’s a trend there that could help Lewis.

LONGSHOTS

Basically, it’s the rest of the field. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if someone emerged here – someone like a Darren Woodson. Me? I’d love to see Hines Ward breakthrough, but let me repeat: A glut of wide receivers poses an obstacle. Plus, this is Ward’s seventh consecutive year as a semifinalist, and he hasn’t advanced beyond this point. Logic says: With the competition at his position more fierce now, why should that change? I’d also like to see running back Ricky Watters get through, but I’m a realist. He’s had little traction since becoming eligible for the Hall in 2007. This is his third time as a semifinalist.  Fred Taylor suffers from the same issue. He has the numbers; he doesn’t have the votes.  Ranked 17th among all-time rushers, Taylor is the only Hall-eligible running back in the top 17 who’s not in Canton. However, that hasn’t moved voters. This is his fourth consecutive year as a semifinalist, and he hasn’t budged. One last Hail Mary: Henry Ellard. He hasn’t been a semifinalist before, but he is now … in his last year of eligibility. Ellard has 15,718 total yards in his career – including 13,777 receiving, which ranked third all-time when he retired after the 1998 season. He also ranked sixth in career receptions then.  Ellard has a daunting and, frankly, improbable task. Jumping a raft of receivers to reach the final 15. I just don’t see it happening.