By John Turney 
Next month the Pro Football Hall of Fame will announce the list of 15 players who will be discussed and voted on for the Class of 2023 . . . the Final 15. Last month the list of 28 semi-finalists was released.
They were—
- Eric Allen, cornerback
- Jared Allen, defensive end
- Willie Anderson, offensive tackle
- Ronde Barber, cornerback
- Anquan Boldin, wide receiver
- Henry Ellard, wide receiver
- Jahri Evans, offensive guard
- London Fletcher, linebacker
- Dwight Freeney, defensive end
- James Harrison, linebacker
- Rodney Harrison, safety
- Devin Hester, kick returner/wide receiver
- Torry Holt, wide receiver
- Andre Johnson, wide receiver
- Albert Lewis, cornerback
- Robert Mathis, defensive end/linebacker
- Darrelle Revis, cornerback
- Steve Smith Sr., wide receiver
- Fred Taylor, running back
- Joe Thomas, offensive tackle
- Zach Thomas, linebacker
- Hines Ward, wide receiver
- DeMarcus Ware, linebacker/defensive end
- Ricky Watters, running back
- Reggie Wayne, wide receiver
- Vince Wilfork, defensive tackle
- Patrick Willis, linebacker
- Darren Woodson, safety
Now, who with the Final 15 be? Hard to tell but we will take a stab basing it on last year's final 15 and the obvious players who are first-time eligibles and who we think will be the ones who will move up in the queue who may have been waiting a while.
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| Joe Thomas, A lock for Final 15 and Induction to HOF |
Here are the guesses ranking them on how far they will go—
- Joe Thomas—No brainer for Final 15, 100% lock for induction.
- Darrelle Revis—Easy pick for Final 15. A 95% lock for induction.
- DeMarcus Ware—Snubbed a bit last year and that will be rectified this year.
- Zach Thomas—Could finally be his year for induction but like Johnson, the two first-ballot guys cloud the picture.
- Ronde Barber—Has great shot at being part of Class of 2023, having been in the top 10 last year.
- Andre Johnson—Has a shot at being part of Class of 2023 he was in the top 10 last year but with a couple of very likely first-ballot guys, he may have to wait.
- Albert Lewis—An emotional choice. Like Ellard, he is a last-chance guy who we think will advance to the Final 15 and top 10. But after that, it is a tough row to hoe.
- Devin Hester—Was in the top 10 last year, and should repeat this year.
- Patrick Willis—Will make the finalist list, and probably will make the top 10.
- Jared Allen—Has been on the Final 15 twice before and no reason to think he won't be on it once again.
- Willie Anderson—Big Willie made the finalist list last year and expect he will do the same in 2023.
- Dwight Freeney—A first-time eligible that will beat out teammate Robert Mathis.
- Torry Holt—2023 will be his 4th straight year in the Final 15.
- Reggie Wayne—Same as Holt. Will be the Final 15 for 4th consecutive year.
- Henry Ellard—Our guess as to a last-time eligible guy that finally gets his chance.
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| Best of the remaining 13 |
Ranking the ones who won't make the Final 15—
From Brian wolf ...
ReplyDeleteI hope youre wrong about Woodson, John. He is the next safety due ... hopefully there isnt safety position fatigue.
I could be. I have him 16th but I never get them all right. I went with Ellard over him because there could be "last-time sentiment" for Ellard. But Woodson could very easily make the Final 15
DeleteHi John, respect your work enormously and understand that this ranking is your thoughts on how voters will respond, but I do not see the lack of support for Mr. Hines Ward as a WR.....I've spoken of this matter with TJ Troup and fwiw, if I had the opportunity, I would draft Hines above any of the other guys on this list....his stats are comparable (and in two categories superior) to all the other candidates....1000 catches, within 76 of ALL others excepting Ellard (814), his y/c a yard or two behind, but #1 in TDs AND percentage of c
ReplyDeletethrow/catch (64.2)....more importantly from my perspective, the guy was an absolutely ferocious blocker....what would that Steeler offense have looked like if he'd not been there?.....would appreciate feedback from anybody on this site? Mr. Wolf?
I understand. I like Ward a lot and agree with your assessment of his complete game as a WR. Of course, I could be wrong but my opinion is just that he won't supplant Johnson, Holt, and Wayne. I could be wrong about Ellard. I went back and forth between him and Woodson. Had Ellard 15th and Woodson 16th. I have Ward 19th. I picked Ellard because of last-chance sentiment.
Deletethanks for the feedback John....I am aware that neither you nor TJ have been given the opportunity to be HoF selectors.....this speaks volumes to me about the quality of the voters and the overall "integrity" of the system presuming that the object is to get the most worthy persons inducted/
DeleteWard is deserving Jim, he got as much out of his talent as anyone and I have endorsed him for years, knowing his speed and lower averages per catch slow his candidacy but we are also talking about a player that helped get Cowher, Bettis and Big Ben elected as well. His case is slightly better than Anquan Boldin, who would easily make my free agent HOF because he improved every team he played on and didnt mentally check out once he was paid. Boldin, like Wayne and Holt, gathered momentum as a number #2 receiver but quickly starred on his own like they did, with similar postseason success. Like Ward without the blocking ability, Steve Smith played the position like a linebacker, dishing out as much as he received.
DeleteJohn, I greatly appreciate your opinion and generally agree with your assessment and arguments. That said, I have one particular disagreement with you: Torry Holt.
ReplyDeleteYou have repeatedly said that you don't favor "number two" receivers getting in the HOF. While we can argue that point another time, my bigger point is that Holt was not number two, but number one on the GSOT Rams. Bruce was great (and extremely underrated early in his career before Warner), but Holt is superior to Bruce in every metric accept counting stats (which are important, but I've also seen you advocate for quality over quantity).
Honors: Holt 7 pro bowls, 1 all pro, all decade; Bruce 4 pro bowls, 0 all pro, no all decade.
Per game averages: Holt is almost one catch and 10 yards better per game (same on TDs).
I haven't seen any testimonials, and it is certainly possible that DBs feared Bruce more than Holt, including double teaming him, Mike Sando recently tried to era adjust WR by comparing them to their peers. In short, the methodology values players based on what percentage a player had of the annual league yardage leader in each players top 8 years in the league. If a player led the league, they get 1.000. If they had 95 percent of the league leader, then they get .950. Then the top eight years are averaged (not totaled) to avoid punishing players with short careers.
The top 10 players are a who's who of WRs (although the "dead ball" era of 1960-70s is noticeably not represented): 1. Rice, 2. Hutson, 3. Moss, 4. HOLT, 5. Largent, 6. J. Jones, 7. Harrison, 8. Lofton, 9. Fitzgerald, and 10. Wayne.
This methodology is not perfect. It does not take into account blocking, which I agree is important, or succeeding on run first teams (Ellard, Monk, S. Smith, etc. are not highly rated). But it tells us that Holt was a dominate receiver in an era of unprecedented WR talent and passing offenses (half the top 10 are primarily from the 2010s, with Holt ranked second above both Harrison (1st team all decade) and Owens (2nd team all decade with Holt and 12th overall).
Finally, while Holt's career numbers are nearly identical to Wayne's, the biggest difference is that Holt's QB for 70% of his career was Marc Bulger (not Kurt Warner, and certainly not Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck).
Not looking to argue with you, but I'm curious if you are open to re-evaluating Holt, especially as numerous voters regularly consult your fantastic opinions.
For one, it doesn't matter at all what I think. It's just an opinion. And while I think Holt (and Wayne) were obviously great players, I saw Holt a lot and Bruce a lot. It's kind of like Swann and Stallworth. Stall's numbers were better than Swann's but when you saw them, there was not much of a question of who was better. Same with Harrison and Wayne.
DeleteAs for your methondology, I commend it. In fact, I came up with something very similar a long time ago
here is a link to a Tweet I just posted. it is a screenshot from 1973's version. I did this for RBs and WRs and QBs. I even have a WR version based on per game stats and TD %,
The link to that Tweet is here: https://twitter.com/NFL_Journal/status/1605327360521388032?s=20&t=NDq-VD02Cwso7pAjqLpULg
I have never published them because I cannot seem to perfect the second one . . . what happens is guys who hang on too long fall down the list and younger guys in their prime dominatethe top.
Anyway, it's not an argument, your opinion is every bit as valid as mine. I am going by a lot of things. I and pretty familar with your metric though I dropped doing it after Owens and Moss retired . . . and it has merit.
Another issue about "2nd WR" thing has more to do with this context: Why would we considered guys like Wayne and Holt over worthy blockers and tacklers?
If you look at a football team there are 1.6 blockers and tackelrs for every skill player. But if you look at HOF there are 1.6 skill players to every blocker and tackler. The ratios are backwards.
Clearly, skills players deserve more consideration than linemen and DBs and LBer, but I think there are blockers and tacklers that are getting left behind in favor of some skills players and what I was really saying is putting in WR2 on teams that won one title really expands the favoritism that skill players get.
I think Holt and Wayne will get in someday. I think Johnson will get in first, though. My personal view (and it is no more valuable than anyone else's) is that it wouldn't hurt for some WRs to wait. Holt maybe even moreso because he was the go-to guy after the Rams SB run was over . . . they were not what they were in GSOT years when he became "the guy" . . . But certainly I respect your views.
Thanks, John. I appreciate the thoughtful response and engagement. I’m surprised that the Rams’ relative lack of success during Holt’s prime is a detriment for you. To me, it only increases his worthiness. He dominated when he was the Rams’ clear cut first (and second) option on offense with a mediocre QB throwing him the ball. For me, his numbers are equal to better than any other receiver not yet inducted (and better than many who were), but his situation (QB talent, team talent) elevates him to the top. He also got every bit of production out of his talent and body (similar to Ward and Smith). He proved one doesn’t have to be a physical freak (Megatron, Andre Johnson, Moss, TO) or blazing fast if one can run routes with intelligence. Holt is most akin to Harrison, but without Peyton throwing him the ball. Maybe the best comp is Tim Brown of Cris Carter, but the analysis shows he was considerable more dominate than either versus his peers. I’m not surprised he has waited (career numbers are just a tick below first ballot consideration for me), but the wait is becoming concerning. He was simply better than all but a very small handful of his peers in a truly golden era of WRs.
DeleteFrom Brian wolf ...
DeleteGood comments Justin but Bulger wasnt mediocre, he had talent but succumbed to injuries. He doesnt replace Warner without talent and upside.
From Brian wolf ...
ReplyDeleteGreat comments, guys. I brought this subject up on the PFRA website. There really is no reason why all these receivers cant simply wait for election.
Other than Calvin Johnson, who I felt was voted in too quickly, no other receiver really stood out.
Why does there seem to be a perception of a backlog or logjam for them but not running backs ? Is there really seven receivers in the semifinals more deserving than the two running backs or just a voting/queue issue? Looking at Holt based on voting, he has payed his dues but so have non-skilled players like D Woodson, Z Thomas or R Barber, who were tacklers like John mentioned. If any position will get backlogged its interior linemen on both sides of the ball. We know those guys will take forever for election, if at all.
I respect clearing the queue, since voters set it anyway but the best players that are most deserving need to always take priority over statistical or longevity milestones. If voters like receivers more than running backs, so be it but runners are still wrongly overlooked because they simply have more responsibilities as blockers and receivers. Other than Ward, which receiver can be judged on blocking or running with the ball?
(carries, not RAC yrds)
Other than Ellard or Smith, who can be judged on special teams play?
Yes, Hester is considered the best of all time but so was Abe Woodson back in his playing days, who was also a great cornerback on defense. Since Hester only excelled at returns, what makes him more deserving?
Some of these receivers will get help from postseason play but should Andre Johnson jump ahead of Wayne, Holt and Ward, who excelled in postseason?
Stafford MVP!
ReplyDeleteThese are my Hall of Fame predictions, in order---numbered 1-2-3-4-5 and so on . . .then the next 5, 6-7-8-9-10, then the 11-15 guys. I
DeleteYou can comment "Stafford MVP!" all you want, that was a post suggesting if Rams played like they did in playoffs Stafford could be poised for an MVP season. Clearly, that did not happen.
My predictions for MVP, OPOY, DOPY, etc were posted on 9/8/2022
here is the link:
https://nflfootballjournal.blogspot.com/2022/09/2022-awards-predictions.html
They were
MVP—Patrick Mahomes
Offensive Player of the Year— Justin Jefferson
Defensive Player of the Year—Nick Bosa
Offensive Rookie of the Year—George Pickens
Defensive Rookie of the Year—Aidan Hutchinson
Comeback Player of the Year—Christian McCaffrey
Coach of the Year—Dan Campbell
Most Improved Player of the Year (PFWA)—Baker Mayfield
During Super Bowl week you can see how I did.
You are really underrating Steve Smith.
ReplyDeleteNot rating players. In this case just handicapping what may happen. I predicted Smith won't go in HoF this year.he may go in in the future---just not this year
Delete5 for 5. You should go to Vegas
ReplyDelete