What to Make of Cowherd's 'Small Hall' and First-Ballot Takes

by John Turney  

It happens every year.

Canton's Hall of Fame Weekend stirs up conversations among fans, players and media, all with their takes on the institution that honors the best of the best players in NFL history.

And so it is that Colin Cowherd, host of "The Herd with Colin Cowherd" on Fox Sports Radio and Fox Sports, entered the arena this week, calling not for more Hall of Famers.

But for fewer.

"I am one of those," he said, "where the Hall of Fame would have far fewer members. It does not matter if it is the broadcasting Hall of Fame, the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame, the 'Football Hall of Fame', the Baseball, Basketball Hall of Fame. They are all watered down. ... The minute you water it down and you put them in with all-time greats it feels lesser-than."

Fair enough. We all have our views on the Pro Football Hall of Fame and whether it should be a "small Hall" or a more inclusive one. Reasonable people can disagree. But then Cowherd went on.

"To me," he said, "there are 10 players in the NFL right now that are first-ballot Hall of Famers."

And he named them:

Patrick Mahomes—"Mahomes ... if he retired today ... he's a Hall of Famer."

Aaron Rodgers—"I think Aaron Rodgers, who I always like better than Brett Favre, is a slam-dunk Hall of Famer."

Travis Kelce—"Kelce could retire today, he’s in. So is his brother, Jason."

Trent Williams—"Trent Williams may be the best left tackle ever .. he is on a shortlist"

Jason Kelce—"Arguably the best center in the history of the league."

Aaron Donald—"Aaron Donald, second best interior defensive lineman I’ve ever seen to Reggie White ... and it's close."

Myles Garrett and Von Miller—"Myles Garrett and Von Miller -- they just look different and play different."

Bobby Wagner—"Bobby Wagner is a nine-time All-Pro. He’s a Hall of Famer ... a tackling machine"

Justin Tucker—"Every other kicker, at some point, becomes unstable ... a little bit of a head case ... you’re not sure. He is the automatic in a position with no automatics"

"To me," Cowherd said, "these are the Hall of Famers currently playing."

HOW I SEE IT

OK, first things first: It's a good list. But are they all first-ballot candidates, as he contends? 

I don't think so.

First, there's one clear omission. It's Dallas guard Zack Martin. Martin will be a first-ballot Hall of Famer.  However, to be fair, Cowherd may have gotten some pushback here because in a later interview with Mark Schlereth, he said he "may be missing the interior offensive lineman for the Cowboys."

Not "may be." He did.

So how about the rest of his predictions?

Mahomes? Cowherd is right.

Travis Kelce? Right again.

Aaron Rodgers? Correct.

Trent Williams? That's a maybe. 

It's not a "maybe" on his being the best left tackle in history as Cowherd contends. In a world that includes Anthony Munoz, it's a "no." As far as a first-ballot Hall of Famer, let's remember that the 6-5, 320-pound tackle has been a first-team AP All-Pro just twice in his career and an AP second-team All-Pro one other year.

Included in the dossiers that the Pro Football Hall sends annually to voters are all the major All-Pro teams, including the PFWA and The Sporting News. They would bolster Williams' case. Because Williams was a first-team Sporting News All-Pro three times, that makes him a five-time All-Pro -- twice consensus -- in the eyes of the Hall of Fame. 

So, how does that compare to other first-ballot left tackles? 

Munoz was a consensus All-Pro seven times and 11 times overall. Jonathan Ogden was a first-time All-Pro in seven seasons, with five of them considered consensus All-Pro years. Walter Jones was a consensus All-Pro five times and six times overall. The Class of 2023's Joe Thomas was an eight-time All-Pro, with six consensus.

While All-Pro (and Pro Bowl selections) are not the only criteria voters weigh, they seem to be a starting point ... and Williams falls short in comparison. He no doubt will pass the voters' "eye test" and receive a surfeit of praise from opposing edge rushers.

But so did Munoz, Ogden, Jones and Thomas. 

Judging by Cowherd's parameters, if Williams suffered a career-ending now, he's no first-ballot lock. Of course, if he plays a few more years at his current level, his first-ballot possibilities improve.

Let's move on to Jason Kelce.  This is a tough one, and it's likely ... but not a slam dunk. Dwight Stephenson or Mike Webster fans would challenge Cowherd's contention that Kelce is the best-ever center. And, in terms of being inducted immediately? Remember: When we're talking centers, only Jim Otto and Jim Langer made it to Canton in their first years of eligibility. 

Cowherd is right about Aaron Donald, though the statement about Reggie White as an interior defensive lineman is curious. White did play some inside -- as a nose tackle in Buddy Ryan's 46 defense and as a defensive tackle in some nickel packages ;; and played a couple of years as a 3-4 defensive end. But most people consider him a defensive end -- and some as the best-ever at that position.

Nonetheless, Donald is a first-ballot lock. Cowherd nailed this one.

Myles Garrett. Again, if the premise is that his career ended now, the answer would be "no" on his first-ballot chances. He simply needs to do more. Six years and 74-1/2 sacks in a hypothetical short career won't put him in on anyone's first ballot. When he does more -- in, maybe, five more years, with 50 more sacks and four or five more Pro Bowls (he's been to four) -- then we can talk.

It is, however, fair to say he's on schedule to get there.

With Von Miller, Cowherd is probably right. Two rings for Miller will help, but remember: Derrick Thomas and DeMarcus Ware were not first-ballot inductees, as odd as that may seem. If we play out this exercise and 2022 was his final year, Miller's "eye test" would probably take him over the top.

Bobby Wagner. Cowherd is correct. 

Calling Wagner a "nine-time" All-Pro does reveal that he (more likely his staff) doesn't distinguish between first and second-team All-Pro. Even so, Wagner has done enough and should get his Gold Jacket right away.

Justin Tucker is another tough one. 

In his commentary, Cowherd nailed Tucker as the complete package: Accurate, great leg and clutch. But if Tucker's career ended now? It's hard to say what voters might do with a kicker with just 11 years in the NFL.

What might help his case is that Jan Stenerud, the first specialist enshrined in Canton, was a first-ballot choice in 1991. However, Stenerud played 19 seasons, and Morten Andersen 25. They're the only two kickers in the Hall.

Then there's Adam Vinatieri. He'll almost certainly joins them in Canton, though not necessarily as a first-ballot choice. He had 24 seasons to his credit.  For Tucker to join Stenerud as a first-ballot Hall of Famer, he'd likely have to play at least another five or six seasons. 

Clearly, there are more current players who will be enshrined in Canton, but they may have to wait years ... as will some on Cowherd's list. The twin Cams, for example — Cam Jordan and Cam Heyward -- almost certainly will be Hall of Famers, but not as pure pass rushers (one as edge; the other as interior). Both defend the run well.

Still, they're unlikely first-ballot candidates. 

Russell Wilson is another possibility. He had a rough year in 2022, but assuming he were to stop playing today, he has a solid shot at the Hall ... though, again, not on his first try.

There are others on a Hall-of-Fame trajectory, with Pittsburgh's T.J. Watt the most prominent of those Cowherd mentioned. He has as good a case as Garrett -- six years, 77-1/2 sacks and three first-team All-Pro seasons -- and, like Garrett, must maintain his current level a few years longer.

Others that Cowherd mentioned are relative newbies in the league -- Joe Burrow, Justin Jefferson, Nick Bosa, Micah Parsons, Fred Warner and Patrick Surtain II. All have a long way to go, but, as Cowherd said, they're obvious standouts.

Overall, Cowherd did a credible job, so there's no reason to knock him. He identified most of the players with cases for instant immortality, with the exception of Zack Martin. Plus, his view on a smaller Hall is not uncommon.

However, the only voice that matters is the Hall's, and recent classes have been maxed out. There are no open slots as there were with the board of selectors 25-30 years ago. So, while Cowherd's suggestion is intriguing, a "small hall" isn't going to happen anytime soon.