Friday, February 2, 2024

If It Were Me

By John Turney
Writers, researchers, historians, drafniks, analytics followers, fans, you name it, enjoy playing games of "What If"... as in: What if they were the coach or GM of their favorite team? What would they do or whom would they draft? 

It's a form of second-guessing that's more a source of entertainment, and it doesn't just apply to games or draft boards. It can apply to the Pro Football Hall of Fame, too. 

And it will. Now.

As a writer, researcher and fan of pro football, I sometimes wonder: Whom would I choose if I were on the Hall's board of selectors? Not the ones I think will be elected. But the ones I thought were most deserving. What if I had that opportunity?

Well, now I do. So, I'm choosing my Class of 2024.

I'll ignore the four senior and coach/contributor nominees because I presume they all make it. It's just a "yes" or "no" vote, with 80 percent approval needed. So barring something bizarre, they should all make it. But I'll just say that if I had a vote, I'd affirm all four -- coach Buddy Parker, linebacker Randy Gradishar, defensive tackle Steve McMichael, and receiver Art Powell.

So, who would be my five modern-era candidates? 

First is Julius Peppers. Given that Jason Taylor was a first-ballot selection in 2017, there's no reason not to give Peppers the same honor. In my mind, neither matches up to the only previous first-ballot defensive ends -- the Mr. Rushmore at that position -- Gino Marchetti, Deacon Jones, Reggie White and Bruce Smith. We know them all by their first names.

But Peppers did have a career roughly the same as Taylor, enough to easily make him the top name on this year's finalist list.

Patrick Willis would be next. The 49ers' linebacker has the most first-team All-Pros among all the final 15. He was a tackling machine and did tremendous work in both the run game and coverage. In fact, coverage may have been his forte.

His career was cut short after eight seasons because of a foot injury, so his peak was not that long. But it was extremely high.

It's clear to me that Andre Johnson is the top wide receiver and one of the best five players among the finalists. He's just different than Torry Holt and Reggie Wayne.

He's a true No. 1 receiver and someone who, at his peak, was a bigger problem for defenses. Imagine what he'd have done with an elite quarterback like Peyton Manning or Tom Brady ... or even a few seasons with Kurt Warner.

Even so, he had three 1,500-yard receiving seasons, including one after the age of 30. He's ranked third in my book of these finalists.

Tight end Antonio Gates would be my fourth. Of all the pass catchers -- regardless of position -- in the final 15, Gates had the most touchdown catches (116).  Incredibly, he has more touchdown receptions than most of the Hall-of-Fame pass catchers, with only six ahead of him -- Jerry Rice, Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, Cris Carter, Marvin Harrison and Larry Fitzgerald.

You may recognize those names. Pretty good work for a tight end who has to block some of the time.

While he may not fit the classic first-ballot definition, he is one of the top five on the ballot this year. His stats, plus his All-Pro resume -- a three-time All-Pro, eight-time Pro Bowler and 2004 NFL Alumni Tight End of the Year -- make him my fourth pick.

It may surprise you that Devin Hester would be my fifth.

It shouldn't. 

And yes, I know the arguments against his case: That he was a specialist and the Hall should be for position players or that a returner doesn't have enough impact on games. Okay, then take out the two kickers and punter.

The reason Hester belongs is that he's not only the G.O.A.T. at his position, but he's so far ahead of the field he's a phenom. He had 20 non-offensive touchdowns (most ever in NFL history) and combined for 19 combined kick/punt return touchdowns, also the most. His 14 punt returns are four more than the next player on the list.

He has a hold on the return record book the same way Jerry Rice has a hold on the receiving record book. Both top most of the lists.

Hester did play on some scrimmage plays at wide receiver and defensive back, but he was not quality at either. But if you kicked or punted to him, he'd make you pay big time. And, if you didn't, the Bears still gained good field position, as punts could be shortened or shanked and land out of bounds.

The same was true on kickoffs. He was avoided by squib kicks or kickoffs launched high and short to allow coverage teams to defend him. Even so, he was always a threat to take one to the house. Because of that dominance, he should get a bronze bust. In fact, if it were up to me -- which it's not -- he'd go in this year. He's one of the top five football players on the list.

But that's my opinion. We'll hear what voters have to say on Thursday, Feb. 8, when the Pro Football Hall of Fame reveals its Class of 2024 at the NFL Honors show.

18 comments:

  1. From Brian wolf ...

    I can understand your thinking about Taylor making the HOF first ballot John ...

    I feel that way about the best of the best receivers and felt C Johnson and Moss could have waited, though I felt Harrison was deserving.

    Whether defensive end, receiver or any other position, you want a very small group to be first ballot selections but younger voters may feel differently.

    Even at tight end, I was hoping a combination player like Witten or Gronk would be first ballot but Gonzalez and now Gates will make before them.

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    1. I think there are 3-4 guys who made 1st ballot that kind of lowered the ball some --- Taylor one of them but not the only one --- Gates, though, not a lock. Probably will, but not a shocker if he waits

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    2. BW ...

      Moss was such a spectacular player at times that it seemed like to me, he could slack in other areas, rather than excel at everything. I know his ability and big numbers jump off the charts but I felt he could have done even more but maybe my expectations of him were too high. I will admit, I was extremely disappointed at his passiveness when he joined the Titans and Vikings but he was getting older. It seemed like at that point, money was all that motivated him but he got serious with the 49ers, knowing his career was ending.

      1st ballot or not, I felt he benefitted with another receiver on the other side, like Carter or Welker but wasnt the type to carry a team like Jerry Rice or Don Hutson, players that the Judge and Jury panel picked over him as the best or most dominate ever.

      I know I am nitpicking, not seeing the forest for the trees sometimes, considering that Moss still played in an era that had more intense, hard hitting defensive football and his play helped accelerate the value of receivers compared to running backs but hopefully voters will continue to ensure that if a player is first ballot elected, its because he was absolutely the best of the best rather than because of any particular timing of a class of eligible inductees.

      The Future Football Legends website has an interesting weighted scoring system called the Legends Score that determines who they felt were the best players of all time and for their scoring of 1st ballot electees, the average score was over 55 but these are the players that had the lowest score--

      Lowest 1st Ballot Legends Scores

      Warren Moon -- 12
      Jim Kelly -- 13
      Tony Dorsett -- 15
      Jan Stenerud -- 17
      George Blanda -- 18
      Jackie Slater -- 19

      Flawed and subjective of course, especially towards older players but interesting.



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    3. BW ...

      Good call on the picks, John ...
      This class will be remembered for who wasnt picked though. An embarrassment if you ask me.
      I knew the seniors for these three classes wouldnt go 9/9 though.
      Who will these voters reject next year?

      I feel Kraft will have to be agreed on first, before Parker gets voted in ...
      shades of Namath-Tarkenton trade-offs. I also feel the super-seniors are done for. A damn shame.

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    4. The two things that stand out to me are 1. the younger voters care a lot about stats 2. Even if an AFL player had excellent stats, they got no chance because of the quality of competition. 3. If you’re an offensive lineman, you better have a lot of honors given the lack of stats.

      So that effectively wipes out any AFL WR and probably the rest of the AFL as a whole from being elected to the Hall.

      Given the demographics of the voting bloc, I don’t see how any pre-70s borderline HOFer with 3 all pros or less will ever get elected. Let alone the super seniors with 4-6 all pros.

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    5. BW ...

      Good comment but I still hope that players like Dave Grayson, Goose Gonsoulin, Ed Budde, Jim Sweeney and Larry Grantham get the consideration they deserve. We know Jim Tyrer wont get voted in as well and Henningan, Sestak and Rich Jackson had injury issues.

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  2. Why isn't Rich Upchurch in the HOF before Devin Hester? Upchurch, like Billy White Shoes Johnson, was an All Decades performer in the 1970s and 1980s. Upchurch has 5 All Pros, versus 4 for Hester. Yes, Hester should be in the Hall, but so do Upchurch and White Shoes.

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    1. BW ...

      From what I am hearing, tomorrow night will be a great night for Da Bayrse! ...

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  3. John: So you nailed the Hester (and Peppers) elections already. Assume you know the final five. Without divulging who was actually picked, did your wish list become reality?

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  4. I don’t know the final class, but I am told my wish list is not 100% right. Here in Vegas. Nobody is saying anything specific. But I am expecting a couple of major surprises. I just don’t know what

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    1. John: As always, thanks. We'll all have time to discuss after the class is announced.

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  5. BW ...

    Any word on Buddy Parker missing election?

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    1. quitting on his team was part of it and maybe other off field things

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    2. BW ...

      Whats your theory John? Vote in Kraft first? With Belichick gone.

      Jimmy Johnson quit on his teams as well but got elected, why should it effect Parker?

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    3. and Big Daddy snubbed....(again)......but I'll keep tilting at the windmill!

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    4. I think Parker also had inklings of being viewed as a southern guy with maybe bigoted viewpoints ... and that may have played a role ... based on stuff said before the votes way back before he emerged ... when folks wanted Holmgren or Shanahan, etc.

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    5. Thanks John. I was wondering when Parker’s world views would be raised. I’ve heard this knock for a while (long before he was nominated). The Detroit Free Press did a piece on the Lions and racial issues a while ago, which asked the question on whether Parker was discriminating or discriminatory. It is a fair question to ask, even though the Lions were clearly light years ahead of Marshall and my beloved team from Washington. It is interesting that these issues haven’t been raised more often in the HOF process.

      Ultimately, this election begs the question of whether Parker (and I guess Powell) were simply flawed nominees or whether this is a trend moving forward. Would love your thoughts on this.

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    6. Yeah, it had to be a factor. And the question is whether his upbringing affected his football decisions more so than others of his era.

      He was hired by the Rooneys after he was a known quantity. Fred Williamson spoke up for him. In his final year no team, AFL or NFL had more African-American players than there were on the 1964 Steelers -- 16. The next-closest was 11-the Browns, top AFL team was (going by memory was ten).

      So, as a product of his era and region I think there was likely something to some of the charges but we also have to ask if he's any worse than some others ... and also if he used his power to apply racial bias.

      It is a complex issue because in that era when there was no shortage of bigotry. My guess is there will be discussions on this topic over the next months and years.

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