Breaking Down Green Bay's Win in Chicago

 By Eric Goska

Receiver Christian Watson was the only Packer to
convert a third-down in Chicago.
(photos by Eric Goska)

Who needs third down?

Not the Packers who might be better off without it.

In squeaking past Chicago 20-19 at Soldier Field, Green Bay mounted three touchdown drives without once bumping up against third down. That the team failed to score on any advance when it did only served to highlight its continuing struggles when the down marker hits three.

Credit the Packers for all but avoiding third down. They got there just five times as Jordan Love and Co. made hay on early downs.

Green Bay gained 191 yards on 23 first-down plays (8.3 average). It produced 148 yards on 14 second-down snaps (10.6).

First and second were all the Packers required as they rolled to scores on advances of 70, 70 and 78 yards. Eighteen plays produced 213 yards, 11 first downs and TDs by Jayden Reed, Josh Jacobs and Love.

On those possessions, second down functioned as a surrogate third down. Green Bay went 6-for-6 in those instances, gaining 119 yards when 35 was needed.

If only the real third down could be dealt with as expeditiously. Sustained success there might eliminate the need for a Karl Brooks to block to Cairo Santos’ 46-yard field goal attempt as time expired in order to win.

Karl Brooks blocked Cairo Santos' last-second
field goal attempt which allowed Green Bay to win
its 11th straight against the Bears.

In Chicago, the Packers gained all of 22 yards on five third-down plays. They earned a first down just once, that on a 17-yard pass from Love to Christian Watson in the second quarter.

Watson’s conversion kept alive an advance that was Green Bay’s longest in terms of plays run (12). But the drive ended on third down when cornerback Terell Smith waylaid a pass intended for Tucker Kraft near the Bears’ end zone.

Talk about a momentum shift. Rookie Caleb Williams then directed a 13-play, 76-yard TD march that put Chicago up 10-7 at the half.

Love’s interception underscored Green Bay’s difficulty on third down, particularly in the passing game. The second-year starter’s numbers are down this season, with one metric having fallen so low it should give the coaching staff pause.

To date, Love has completed 27 of 59 passes (45.8 percent) for 311 yards, six TDs and four interceptions on third down. His passer rating (67.8) is the lowest on that down by a Packers quarterback (minimum 50 attempts) since Brett Hundley’s 62.8 in 2017.

Since 1992, just two Packers quarterbacks have finished with a rating below 70: Hundley and Brett Favre (68.0) in 1999. Green Bay finished 7-9 in 2017 and 8-8 in 1999.

More disconcerting is Love’s inability to produce first downs. Just 15 of his 59 throws (25.4 percent) have moved the chains.

That rate is the third lowest by a Packers passer over the last 70 years. Only David Whitehurst (18.3) in 1978 and Randy Wright (24.6) in 1987 have been lower since 1954 (minimum 50 attempts).

Love can improve. He did in 2023.

In starting out 3-6 last season, Love compiled a third-down passer rating of 83.7. He completed 52 of 90 passes for 602 yards, four TDs and four interceptions. Thirty-eight of his 90 passes (42.2 percent) resulted in first downs.

In finishing 6-2, Love compiled a third-down passer rating of 122.2. He completed 45 of 72 passes for 491 yards, 10 TDs and nary an interception. Thirty-eight of his 72 attempts (52.7 percent) brought first downs.

Love’s lack of production has meant the Packers have gone seven straight games with fewer than 50 yards passing on third down. It is the team’s longest such streak in at least a dozen years.

Only twice this season has Love converted more than two third downs into firsts with his passing. He came up with four in a 34-13 win over the Cardinals and three in a 24-22 victory over the Texans.

The Low Down on Third Down
Since 1954, Packers whose third-down throws produced the fewest first downs on a percentage basis. (minimum 50 attempts)

       Rate           Passer                         Year             Attempts-FDs
        18.3            David Whitehurst          1978                     93-17
        24.6            Randy Wright                 1987                     69-17
        25.4            Jordan Love                    2024                    59-15
        25.7            John Hadl                        1975                    113-29
        25.7            Lynn Dickey                    1977                     74-19
        27.5            Anthony Dilweg             1990                     51-14
        28.4            Scott Hunter                  1972                     74-21
        29.3            Tobin Rote                      1955                     92-27