State Your Case: Is Bucs' Mike Evans a First-Ballot Hall of Famer Waiting to Happen?

By John Turney 

A few weeks agi, after a nine-catch, two-touchdown, 159-yard performance two weekends ago, Tampa Bay wide receiver Mike Evans received the highest praise from coach Todd Bowles, and it had nothing to do with Evans' play that afternoon.

It had to do with his career.

"I think he's a guaranteed Hall of Famer," Bowles said. "He steps up and plays big. You can't put a price on what he does for this team from a mental standpoint, from a physical standpoint and from a team standpoint.

"He is everything that a player aspires to be from a mental aspect. He's tough. He does great in the community. He takes care of his body. He comes up big with plays, whether they're singling him or doubling him, and he blocks. We can't ask for anything more than what he is giving us right now."

Bowles' comments didn't go unnoticed, especially on social media. Among those who responded was Brett Kollmann, who's familiar to those who frequent YouTube or X. He has over 400,000 on the former and nearly 160,000 on X. So, his opinion matters.

Anyway, he didn't question what Bowles had to say; he simply took things a step farther.

"I don't think the question is: Is Mike Evans is a first-ballot Hall of Famer?" he said. "I think the question is: How many receivers in NFL history are in front of him? It ain't many." 

Some of his followers agreed, while there was pushback from others -- most notably, NFL.com's Gregg Rosenthal, who pointed to a glaring hole in Evans' career bound to provoke debate when he becomes a Hall-of-Fame candidate.

"Never been a first team All Pro," Rosenthal said, "and only second team twice. I love Mike Evans and think he'll make the HOF as a far more exciting section of the Art Monk/Tim Brown compiler wing. But if he's never been top-2 in a given year, I'm going 'many' "

So, which is it?  Or is it even an "either-or?" Or maybe something more nuanced than that? 

Let's take a look.

Since entering the NFL as the seventh overall pick in the 2014 draft, Evans has been a model of durability and consistency. To wit, last year he became the first player in NFL history to start his career with eleven consecutive 1,000-yard receiving seasons, a feat unmatched by the greatest receivers with names like Rice, Alworth, Moss, Owens, Harrison, etc.

Not only that, but he had his sixth double-digit season in that category, too. And if he does, he joins Randy Moss, Jerry Rice (both with nine), Marvin Harrison, Terrell Owens (eight), Cris Carter and Davante Adams (six) as the only receivers to reach that pinnacle.

In his 11 seasons, Evans has already surpassed 100 career touchdowns -- a milestone only a dozen receivers (including tight ends) reached in the NFL's 100-plus-year history. In fact, only seven of the 35 Hall-of-Fame wide receivers have that many.

Taken together, those all seem like Hall-of-Fame numbers.

But then there's the question of the "1,000" season not being what it used to be. Since the NFL expanded games from 14 to 16 in 1978, it made it easier to get there. The same was true when the NFL went from 12 to 14 games in 1961. The "1,000-yard" threshold was notable then because it was rare.

Now it's almost routine. 

From 1920-60, only 17 players did it a total of 21 times. Through 1977, the last year there was a 14-game schedule, it happened 105 times. But since 1978, 839 players produced 1,000-yard receiving seasons (including tight ends and running backs) ... and, keep in mind, that includes 87 since 2021 -- the 17-game era. With two games left this season, that number will grow, as a dozen or more players are within striking distance.

The point? Perhaps Evans' streak shows more about consistency than anything else as in being there ... answering the bell ... reliability. No question, four of his seasons featured 1,200 or more yards, or what might be considered an All-Pro level. But a couple just inched over the 1,000 barrier, and while those might considered good seasons, they're not elite.

What can be seen now is that Evans' blend of size and exceptional ball-tracking ability has made him a nightmare matchup for opposing defenses. If you go strictly by "the eye test," one has to conclude that Evans is special; someone's defenses must target.

And they should.

His height (6-feet-5) is rare for a wideout. Only two others (Hall-of-Famer Calvin Johnson and Brandon Marshall) have been that tall and produce 10,000 or more yards receiving in their careers. However, Evans is the only wide receiver at that height with 100 TD catches.

But he's not just big; he also has excellent speed for someone his size, turning in a 4.53-second 40 at the 2014 NFL combine. That makes him a deceptively effective deep receiver, as the numbers illustrate: He has a career yards-per-catch average of 15.3.

Is that good? Well, Moss's career average was 15.6, and Megatron's was 15.9. For this era, it absolutely is. He's also a smooth route runner and physical receiver. Few, if any, are better at getting the ball -- winning the "50-50" throws.

But there's more.

Evans also has the jewelry. He was Tom Brady's top target for the Super Bowl-winning Bucs in 2020 ... and what a relief for someone who spent a half-dozen years slogging away with the wildly inconsistent Jameis Winston. Once the G.O.A.T. arrived, it was right to the playoffs ... and beyond. 

The Buccaneers went on to trounce Kansas City, 31-9, in Super Bowl LV. 

But what about Rosenthal's point that Evans never made first-team All-Pro a single time and was a second-teamer just twice? It's a strong rebuttal to a first-ballot claim. On All-Pro teams recognized by the Hall of Fame, first-ballot wide receivers average just over five first-team All-Pro years each. 

That's a lot more than none. 

On the other hand, it wouldn't affect his eventually being inducted because it hasn't hurt others. Andre Reed was never a first-team All-Pro, and nine other Gold Jacket recipients were first-team All-Pro just once. So Evans would have plenty of company.

Additionally, Evans had five Pro Bowl invitations, or more than these post-1960 Hall of Famers: Cliff Branch, Bobby Mitchell, Don Maynard, Harold Carmichael, Isaac Bruce, Lynn Swann, Art Monk, Bob Hayes, John Stallworth and Charlie Joiner. If it was enough for them, it should be enough for Evans.

But it wouldn't be enough for the first ballot. At least not now. But that could change.

Here's how: For one, next year Larry Fitzgerald will be eligible for the Hall of Fame for the first time. He went to a pile of Pro Bowls (11) but was a first-team All-Pro once and second-team twice when you count just AP teams -- although you can bump that up to two All-Pros if you include the Sporting News (which the Hall of Fame recognizes). 

In either case, it's not to the level of what stars like Rice, Alworth, et. al., accomplished. Nonetheless, Fitzgerald just might make it right away and be part of the Class of 2026. He's not a lock, but it's possible because of the numbers he amassed -- 1,432 receptions, 17,492 yards and 121 touchdowns. That's above and beyond and likely will mitigate the lack of multiple first-team nominations.

So how would that relate to Mike Evans? Easy: Fitzgerald caught over 500 passes for over 5,000 yards and 32 touchdowns from the time he was 32 through the end of his career, a total of six seasons. Evans turns 32 next year, and if he were to play as long as and be as productive as Fitzgerald, his career numbers would be nearly identical.

If we "ballpark" them," we might come up with something around 1,300-1,400 receptions and over 17,000 yards and 120-130 TD grabs for Evans.  With those numbers, Hall voters would have to give him first-ballot consideration -- if, indeed, they do the same with Larry Fitzgerald.

I know, we're way out in the world of "what if," but that scenario would fulfill Kollaman's opinion/prediction. Barring that, though, it seems Rosenthal's thinking would prevail. Until then, we can enjoy watching Mike Evans play and hope that what we see is what we continue to get for years ... because Mike Evans is special.

That's one opinion that isn't debatable.