Can Adam Vinatieri Beat the Odds Again as First-Ballot HOFer?

By John Turney 

As an ESPN analyst, Hall-of-Fame coach Bill Parcells once described Adam Vinatieri's improbable 45-yard field goal in the 2001 playoffs -- a kick made in a blizzard at Foxboro vs. the Oakland Raiders -- as the "greatest football play of all time."

Surprised? I was. After all, it was a kicker who made the game-tying play, and kickers aren't football players, right? At least, that's what we sometimes hear. But not Vinatieri. He was more than a kicker.

We know because Parcells told us so.

Rewind the videotape to 1996 when Parcells was head coach of the New England Patriots, and Vinatieri was his kicker. In an early December game vs. Dallas, one which the Patriots won, Vinatieri managed to chase down Cowboys' running back Herschel Walker on a kick return, prompting Parcells to give the rookie his highest compliment.

"You're not just a kicker," he told Vinatieri. "You’re a football player."

OK,, so he was a football player, per Parcells. But the greatest football play ever? Even Bill Belichick, who took over as the Patriots' coach in 2000, qualified his praise by calling Vinatieri's 2001 field goal "by far the greatest kick I have ever seen." 

Best football play or greatest kick ever, it doesn't matter. Either way, it was a remarkable achievement given how much football Parcells and Belichick had seen in their careers.  And it was that clutch kick, among many others, that landed Adam Vinatieri on the Pro Football Hall-of-Fame's Class of 2025 finalist list. Now, this week we learn if it's enough to make the former New England and Indianapolis specialist the second kicker ever to be a first-ballot choice (Jan Stenerud was elected in his first year of eligibility in 1991) and the third kicker overall.

If not, he'll have to wait, as Morten Andersen (whose records he topped) did until 2017 when he was enshrined in his fourth year as a finalist. Whichever way the voting goes, Vinatieri has a compelling case for first-ballot induction, and let's count the ways:

-- He played 24 seasons in the NFL, third most behind George Blanda (26) and Andersen (25).

-- His games played (365) are second most in league history, behind Andersen, and his 32 playoff contests trail only future Hall-of-Famer Tom Brady.

-- He's the NFL's all-time leading scorer with 2,673 points.

-- His field goals made (599) are also the most ever.

-- He scored 238 points in the playoffs, which are first all-time ... as are his post-season field goals (56).

-- His clutch performances in Super Bowls, including game-winning field goals in Super Bowl XXXVI and XXXVIII, are iconic moments that helped define his career.

-- He was a first-team All-Pro in 2002, 2004 and 2014 and made the Pro Bowl those same years. Moreover, he was voted to the NFL 2000s' all-decade team and is one of two kickers named to the NFL's 100th anniversary team. Stenerud is the other.

-- Five times he was AFC Player of the Month and 27 times the AFC Player of the Week.

-- He's in the New England Patriots' Hall of Fame and the Colts' Ring of Honor.

As you can see, the honors -- like his kicking records -- go on and on. But they weren't easy to achieve ... not at first, anyway. As a rookie in 1996, his career got off to a shaky start when he missed three field goals in a Week 2 loss to Buffalo. He missed another in a blowout win the following week, irking Parcells ... and why not? Heading into a Week 4 matchup against Jacksonville, he'd converted just three of his first seven attempts.

So the pressure was on for the young kicker out of South Dakota State.

But that's when Vinatieri excelled, with the Jacksonville game offering a glimpse into what would make him extraordinary. He nailed five field goals in that contest, including the game-winner, in a 28-25 overtime victory, and proceeded to miss only three more kicks the rest of the season, including the playoffs.

Now, fast-forward from that point in his career to his retirement when Belichick called him "the greatest kicker of all time," and you'll understand why he should be on the short list when the Hall's Class of 2025 is revealed on Thursday. 

"When you look up 'clutch' in the dictionary," Brady said to Vinatieri on social media, "it should have your picture. An incredible teammate with an incredible work ethic. Honored to have played with the GOAT."

Brady should be. Without Vinatieri's clutch kicks, Brady may not be considered the G.O.A.T. of NFL quarterbacks. A few weeks after Vinatieri's kick(s) in the 2001 "Snow Bowl" (or "Tuck Rule Game," take your pick) he hit a 48-yarder as time expired in Super Bowl XXXVI to give the Patriots a 20-17 win over the heavily-favored St. Louis Rams.

It was the first of six Patriots' Super Bowl titles.

Two years later, he hit a 41-yard game-winner in Super Bowl XXXVIII to secure a 32-29 win over Carolina, and a dynasty was born. The following season, the Patriots would go on to win their third title in four years.

"Even in the other Super Bowl we won we won against Philadelphia (Super Bowl XXXIX)," said then-special teams coach Brad Seely, "he kicked a field goal late in that game to put us ahead. Now it wasn’t a deciding kick, but every one of those Super Bowl wins was a three-point game. And it was because of Adam."

That can also be read as ... "because of Adam," Tom Brady got his first three rings. Clutch is what mattered, and Vinatieri was just that. 

That's important to remember. Because while he holds a slew of records, Vinatieri wasn't the most accurate kicker of his era. He just wasn't. He was good, ONE of the best. But there were kickers with higher field-goal percentages. In fact, at his retirement, his 83.8 percent accuracy rate ranked 15th all-time among kickers with 200 or more field goals. Of course, that's nothing new for Hall-of-Fame kickers. When Andersen retired he was 14th, and Stenerud was 10th.

Earlier Hall-of-Fame kickers who played dual roles weren't much different. Blanda was 22nd (minimum 100 made field goals) and Lou Groza was sixth (75 made, minimum). But it wasn't across-the-board accuracy that defined Vinatieri's kick as much as it was pressure. He responded to it like few others.

When his team was down by three or fewer points in the last two minutes of play, for example, his 83.8 accuracy rate jumped to nearly 87 percent. And when his team was down by three or fewer points in the last 30 secondss, it increased to just over 88 percent.

Bottom line: He hit field goals when it mattered.

So there you have it. It's a first-ballot resume, though it doesn't mean Vinatieri is a first-ballot lock. Modern analytics could get in the way. 

In one analysis, I've seen former Chiefs' great Nick Lowery named as the game's leading kicker, ranked about eight points above average ... or "above-replacement kicker"... per 16 games, with Andersen and Stenerud ranked four or fewer. That means that metric considers the league's two all-time leading scorers a field goal or field goal-and-extra point better than a mediocre kicker. So the so-called "value," or the position value, of a kicker isn't close to that of a position player. 

Hopefully, the Hall's board of selectors sees more than just metrics when it looks at Vinatieri. Let's hope voters remember what they saw with their eyes, what we all saw ... and that's a kicker who lasted 24 years , broke every career record in the book and excelled when the stakes were high, no matter the weather, the opponent or the situation. 

Adam Vinatieri was money on game-winning kicks in the biggest games, and isn't that what a Hall of Fame kicker is all about? We're about to find out.