More Lavonte David Love – and a Comparison

by Nick Webster

Today, Lavonte David and an all-time great Tampa Bay Buccaneer, retired from the NFL rather than move elsewhere, but will he eventually have to suit up with a different look in Canton? Sadly, I think the likelihood is no, as David is one of the most underrated players in a generation. He is harmed by playing in a small market, by playing at a non “premium” position (whatever that is) by playing in an era when Pro Bowl and All-Pro voters get confused about off-ball versus on-ball OLB’s by coming out of the draft in the same season as Luke Kuechly, Bobby Wagner and Demario Davis (man was the LB position stacked in 2012) and by speaking softly and letting his play do the talking.

The consensus top off-ball LBs of the era are Luke Kuechly and Bobby Wagner, each were fantastic linebacker, team leader, and star player on Super Bowl-winning teams. David himself has a claim to fame on all these dimensions, though his leadership role on the Buccaneer defense is overshadowed by a guy named Tom Brady. Comparing these great LB’s, David’s numbers stand up well. Look at just how similar David and Wagner’s numbers are – yet Wagner is frequently discussed as “future Hall of Famer” Bobby Wagner. 

The only categories where Wagner has a meaningful lead are on overall tackles (much of which is a vestige of the Seahawks press-box being liberal with assists as Wagner’s ~300 TT lead drops to 22 when you’re counting solo tackles) and QB Hits. David, quite simply, made bigger more impactful plays, more sacks, more forced fumbles and more stuffs (tackling a runner or receiver for a loss).

**You will notice slight differences between the above numbers and those published by John Turney in his salute of David earlier today. Note that two TTs of David’s were made on special teams (these are only on defensive plays) and a couple of plays where play-by-plays were updated on stuffs.

His EPA – Expected Points added – and WPA – Win Probability added – are similar but better. His Defeats, plays for negative yardage or plays resulting in turnovers, including stops short of a first down on third or fourth down, are far higher. David produced.

So, David compares favorably with “future HOFer” Bobby Wagner, but really, Luke Kuechly is the class of the era, right? Kuechley, deservedly, received a nod from the Hall this past year – we cheered it and think he should have been first ballot. But let’s compare just the eight years that Kuechly played to the first eight seasons of David’s career, certainly Luke outplayed him over that period ... think again.

Over their first eight seasons, Luke also led David in TT’s, though in this case, David had MORE Solo Tackles than Kuechly (724 to 690). Kuechly legitimately separated himself in pass D, and this was real, but also a function of the scheme, which more frequently had David covering back in the backfield and Kuechly covering TEs running the seam. Outside of this, David leads in practically every category, even if only slightly.

So, he compares favorably in his era, but where does David fit among the all-time greats?  Well, using play-by-play data, David is the seventh leading tackler of all-time, six tackles behind all-time great Derrick Brooks.  

In stuffs, which we defined earlier, he is literally ranked second all-time behind Junior Seau and ahead of third-ranked Bruce Smith – both first ballot HOFers. Finally, David’s 33 FFs are FAR ahead of any known values of top off-ball LB’s all-time, Dick Butkus - and let’s be clear the record is incomplete – is documented by us (after lots of research) with 27 FF’s, Ray Lewis (well documented) 21, Jack Lambert (quite well documented) 18, Mike Singletary 14, Derrick Brooks 25, etc., etc., etc.

So, should David go from wearing Creamsicle Orange in Tampa to Gold in Canton? It’s our belief that he should. Is he an all-time great, perhaps, but is he a great of his era absolutely? The Hall that has room for Deacon, Gino and Reggie also has room for Claude Humphrey. The Hall that has room for Night Train, Mel Blount and Deion also has room for Lem Barney. And that same Hall that has room for Jack Ham, Derrick Brooks and Bobby Bell also found room for Dave Wilcox – and it needs to find room for Lavonte David too.