Von Miller—Late Career Slide?

 By John Turney 

Von Miller

Statistics usually don't tell the whole story, especially in football. Many times a player might have statistics that are not the norm for him, but there are reasonable explanations for it. In terms of a pass rusher, he might be getting extra blocking, or the offense running plays to help neutralize a player's skills.

However, with Von Miller, it seems his statistics as of late are telling the story. And it is backed up by watching him play, the old 'eye test,' as it were. The story is he's one of those players who is having a late-career slide.

In his years in Denver, and even the half-year in Los Angeles, he was as good a 3-4 OLB as there ever was not named Lawrence Taylor. He was a joy to watch; his speed his "ghost move", a move Miller where he would show the long-arm or stab first, drawing the tackle into a punch or an early set, then drop underneath the hands and vanish around the corner. The "now you see me, now you don’t" line he used while demonstrating it, plus the specific combination of fake and dip, is the version that caught on around the NFL, the move he is the father of.

But that was then. This is now. Today, the once super-elite edge rusher is average, if that, if the last two games as a Dallas Cowboy are any indication. However, and this is key, that is so far. There are fifteen games left and who knows; he may end up with a double-digit sack total and the Cowboys get into the playoffs and Miller is part of a defense that can help make a run for a title. 

That he's done before, once with the Broncos and once with the Rams. 

This is a guy who Pro Football Focus (PFF)  graded with an average grade of just under 90 from 2011 through 2022 when he was a starting All-Pro and about 67 since, when he's been a designated pass rusher.

Again, breaking down PFF and also Football Outsiders (FO) independent totals of QB pressures (combination of sacks, hits and hurries), the numbers tell the story

2011–2022 (11 seasons, excluding 2020 missed year)

PFF  average: 68

FO  average: 53

2023–2026 (3 full seasons)

PFF  average: 31

FO  average: 31

However, let's be fair: Miller is 37 and was always a speed/technique rusher. He was a guy who was timed in the 4.5 forty range and looked like it on the field. In his early days, he was more than a pass rusher. With defensive schemes of coaches like Wade Phillips and Vic Fangio, he would be asked to cover a back or the flat. With Phillips, it might be calls like "Will Wink" or "Sam Sink" that would send four of the 5-man line (three defensive interior players and two edges) after the quarterback and either the Sam backer or Will backer would drop. 

The same was true of the Fangio scheme; the edge players would have to drop sometimes, the flat or as a "bonus hook" player, and Miller was good at it. Some guys are just "there," and others can cover, be more than just there. Miller could cover, especially early in his career.

Given his age and performance, he likely won't get a dozen sacks like a 37-year-old Kevin Greene did in 1999, but he might get a handful in a season like James Harrison or Clay Matthews Sr. did in their late 30s. It's possible, at least. But does that help or hurt his legacy?

When does his production get to the point of being like Willie Mays in 1972-73 with the Mets or Hank Aaron with the Brewers in 1975-76, or a Johnny Unitas in 1973? When is he just is not himself and it starts to hurt your heart to see one of the best ever do it, being a shell of himself. 

To his credit, he came back from an injury plague in the 2023 season to be productive the last two years, but even then, watching him, it was not the same. Hopefully, this year will be more like 2024 and 2025 than 2023, but the film, SO FAR, isn't showing that. Obviously, things can change in the next span of games.

Of course, Miller is going to get a Gold Jacket, likely five years after he retires, but it will be based on the six All-Pro seasons in the first half of his career, around 140 career sacks, and his two rings that were aided by his 16 career playoff games (when his teams went 11-5) and when he recorded 10.5 sacks, 49 tackles, three forced fumbles ... including 4.5 sacks and two forced fumbles in Super Bowls alone.

 

Let's just hope the current version is not what is left in voters' minds, or they might ding him a year. Let's hope not, but that is a discussion for another day. 

Career stats and honors—