Andre Johnson—The Next WR to Make the HOF?

By John Turney 

When the Pro Football Hall of Fame announces its 15 finalists for the modern-era Class of 2024 on Wednesday, it's all but certain that former wide receiver Andre Johnson will be among them. In fact, it would be stunning if he wasn't.  

After all, he was a finalist in each of his first two years of eligibility and advanced to the final 10 each time before he was eliminated. So, he'll be back in the running and, in all probability, back in the Top Ten. 

Only one question: Is this his turn to earn a Gold Jacket?

The third overall pick of the 2003 draft, the former Houston Texans' star is the greatest offensive player in the history of the franchise, ranking 11th all-time in receptions with 1,062 and in receiving yards with 14,185. A three-time All-Pro selection (twice consensus) and seven-time Pro Bowler (2005, 2007, 2009-14), he led the NFL twice in catches (2006 and 2008) and twice in receiving yards (2008 with 1,575 and in 2009 with 1,569).

So, he's qualified. But so are Reggie Wayne and Torry Holt, also wide receivers ... also 2023 finalists ... and also Top Ten finishers. They're part of a Hall-of-Fame logjam at the position that's expected to be broken when the Hall's board of selectors meets next month, with one or more of the three elected.

The question, then, is simple: Will Johnson be one of them?

Holt and Wayne have been finalists the past four years. Johnson has been a finalist for two. Each has gaudy credentials, and each should eventually make it to Canton. But who goes first? Johnson would seem to have the edge for several reasons:

-- First of all, he was physically different from the other two. All-Pro edge rusher Terrell Suggs called him "a freak," adding that Johnson was "a physical mismatch to all the corners in the NFL ... six-four, 230 pounds of pure muscle." Former linebacker Channing Crowder agreed, calling him a "man amongst boys," and the numbers proved it. Though not paired with elite quarterbacks, he still managed to produce seven seasons with 1,142 or more yards receiving and five with 103 or more catches.

"You will have good coverage, (and) you'll have a guy in position," said former coach Jack Del Rio, "and he'd be a little stronger than the guy ... a little faster than the guy ... and make a play."

-- He was extraordinarily fast for his size. At the 2003 NFL scouting combine, he ran a 4.4 40, putting him in the 99th percentile of all players his size ever tested. By comparison, Hall-of-Fame receiver and fellow freak Randy Moss ran a 4.38 at 194 pounds on his pro day, while Calvin "Megatron' Johnson -- also part of the All-Freak team -- ran a 4.38 at the combine at 239 pounds.

Moss and Megatron are considered the two most physically gifted receivers ever, but Andre Johnson is right there with them. As accomplished as Holt and Wayne were, they weren't as athletically gifted.

"Coming out of the draft," said Johnson, "I was 230 pounds, which was huge for a wide receiver. I think the biggest question was my speed. Nobody knew how fast I was."

-- But that hasn't given Andre Johnson his Hall pass. Moss and Calvin each were first-ballot choices, while Johnson is still knocking on the door ... and you have to wonder why. Because when it comes to production, in some ways he was ahead of them.

For example, Andre Johnson is one of only five receivers to have three or more 1,500-yard receiving seasons (2008, 2009 and 2012). Only one player has more, and that would be Jerry Rice with four. Neither Moss nor Calvin Johnson had that many, though Megatron was close.

-- Johnson's seven Pro Bowls are more than Moss and Megatron at six, as well. They're also more than Terrell Owens and Marvin Harrison, each of whom had six.

-- Andre was first- or second-team All-Pro five times. Owens also had five, but Moss and Megatron did not. They were named four times, Wayne was named three and Holt twice.

--  Johnson is fifth all-time in receptions per game behind Antonio Brown, Marvin Harrison, DeAndre Hopkins and Julio Jones. In addition, he has 21 career games with 10 or more catches and 100 or more receiving yards. No player has more. His eight games with 10 receptions, 150 yards receiving and one touchdown are the most ever, too. Plus, he had 51 career 100-yard games, which ties him for fifth all-time.

-- Johnson is one of five receivers to surpass 1,500 yards receiving in consecutive years and one of just three receivers (Marvin Harrison and Antonio Brown) to produce four seasons of 100-plus receptions and 1,400-plus yards.

Those are massive numbers.

But there's more. He continued his stellar production late in his career, with a couple of his biggest seasons after the age of 30. Only two players have more than one 1,400-yard receiving in their 30s: Jerry Rice and Andre Johnson. At a time when most receivers, even Hall-of-Famers, tail off, Andre Johnson was still tearing it up.

If there's criticism it has to do with touchdowns. It was relatively low. He had only had 70, and there's not much of an explanation other than the Texans didn't use him more where it counted. Inside the red zone, they ran at such a high percentage (54 percent) that only two NFL teams exceeded them. Holt and Wayne's teams did the opposite, with runs on 45 percent of the Colts' play inside the 20 and 47 percent of the Rams.

It's similar when it comes to the kind of red-zone touchdowns their teams scored. The Texans ran for 49 percent of all TDs, while Harrison's Colts were down to 40 percent and the Holt-era Rams at 42. 

Part of those run/pass decisions was philosophy. Houston coach Gary Kubiak came from the Mike Shanahan tree and believed in a more balanced approach to offense, one that featured zone blocking in the run game and play-action off of that. Then there's the simple fact that Johnson didn't have a Peyton Manning or Kurt Warner throwing him the ball.

"I never played with a Hall-of-Fame quarterback," he told Houston NBC affiliate KPRC 2. "I never played with any other Hall-of-Fame (offensive) players. I don't know anyone that put up the numbers I put up without playing with a Hall-of-Fame player."

He's right. 

Holt had Warner, Isaac Bruce and Marshall Faulk, while Wayne was teamed with Manning, Marvin Harrison and Edgerrin James.  Compared to them, Johnson was virtually alone.

Andre Johnson belongs in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. He's among the elite of the elite when it comes to physical prowess and monster years when he was paired with quarterbacks you won't find waiting in line for busts in Canton. We know he'll reach the Pro Football Hall of Fame. We just don't know if it will happen before or with Torry Holt and Reggie Wayne.

I believe it will. Because I believe it should.