MVP Shares

A LOOK AT J.J. WATT'S DOMINANCE
by Nick Webster

JJ WATT
Art credit: John Turney

With the Super Bowl just over lots of people will want to talk about what transpired on that fateful Sunday night. I believe, however, the Saturday night prior was just as interesting (we’ll leave aside the NFL’s desire to monopolize media during this entire week and thus leaving award announcements till a month later than when they were historically handed out).

Saturday J.J. Watt, to much publicity, was the first unanimous choice as the Associated Press Defensive Player of the Year.  But what about other DPOY’s?  Who else was close?  Well, interestingly, the closest to a unanimous DPOY ever was. . . J.J. Watt, who garnered 98% of the vote (49 of 50) in his 2012 DPOY year. 
Currently, Watt has now tallied the two most dominant DPOY vote victories ever.  After Watt’s 2014 and 2012, who’s the next most dominant selection?  Try Lawrence Taylor, with 88% of the vote in his MVP season, of course, in the modern NFL the MVP has to be an offensive player.  But think about this: J.J. isn’t the NFL MVP, but was viewed more dominant defensively that the last defensive player to win overall NFL MVP, such a shame.

In baseball researchers contemplate MVP Career Shares – basically adding up the percentage of the votes a player received for MVP across a number of seasons, so a player who never wins one, could rank highly, or players with one great season surrounded by few others might score poorly.   What if we look at Defensive Player of the Year in the same manner?  By that measure J.J. Watt is already the most dominant defender since the award was re-introduced by the Associated Press in 1972.  Watt’s Share of DPOY is 2.03, followed closely by Bruce Smith with 1.93 and LT with 1.92.  In fact, a list of players with two Defensive Player of the Year Awards reads like the Mt. Rushmore of defensive greats with LT, Smith, Joe Greene, Mike Singletary and Ray Lewis being the only members (and first ballot HOF’ers all of them -unless voters hold Atlanta against Lewis).   Finally, maybe most impressive, if you aggregate all players by team, over the nearly 45 year history of the award, only five teams have more DPOY shares than Watt, led by the Steelers with almost two-and-a-half times Watt at 5.26.  

Time and consistency will tell, but while everyone enjoys arguing about Seattle and their potentially all-time defense, we’re looking at a truly once-in-a-generation player in J.J. Watt.

The Eleven Most Dominant Pass Rushing Teams in NFL History.

A LOOK BACK AT LEN FORD AND DOUG ATKINS
by T.J. Troup

Len Ford, colorization by John Turney

In honor of Len Ford's birthday, the 18th of February, listed below are the 11 best pass rushing teams in league history using the following criteria: Yards lost attempting to pass divided by opponent pass attempts.

Since this is a territorial game; yards sure do count. When a team sacks the quarterback for big losses in yardage, and your opponent does not attempt that many passes you have gained an unquestioned advantage in field position.

Ranking 11th is the '51 Browns (1.30) led by the first great pass rusher Len Ford (recorded over 20 sacks in a 12 game season). The '77 Patriots rank 10th (1.32), while the '65 'Skins (1.32) hold down the ninth spot. While much has been written about the '85 Bears defense, the pass rush in '84 comes in 8th (1.34).

Returning to the championship game for the third consecutive season; the New York Giants set records for passing, yet their pass rush led by left end Jim Katcavage earns 7th place in the rankings (1.35). The '52 Eagles fill the 6th spot (1.37) on this list. The rule changes in '78 did not impact Detroit as Al "Bubba" Baker and his "Silver Rush" cohorts pillaged the pass pocket to rank 5th (1.37). Clark Shaughnessy had a myriad of "red dogs" and in '60 the Bears continued to attack the pass pocket as they rank 4th(1.44).

We all can debate just how angry the 11 defenders of the Oakland Raiders were in '67, yet no doubt AFL passers came under siege as the Silver & Black finished 3rd in our rankings (1.45). For the first half of the '76 season the 49ers "Gold Rush" had the look of destiny, and though they could not sustain their dominance; finishing second on this list is quite an achievement (1.53).

More myth than man? Not if you have seen him come off the edge from his right defensive end position. Doug Atkins finally began to fulfill his promise in '57, and as such the Bears rank #1 as they recorded 479 yards in sacks, while opponents attempted only 306 passes(1.56) for first place on this list.

Doug Atkins, colorization by John Turney

2014 Pro Football Journal Awards

Most Valuable Player: Aaron Rogers, GB
Offensive Player of the Year: Aaron Rogers, GB
Defensive Player of the Year: J.J. Watt, Hou
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Odell Beckham, Jr., NYG
Defensive Rookie of the Year:  Khalil Mack, Oak
Coach of the Year:   Bruce Arians, Ari

PFJ's 2014 All-Pro Team

Selected by the staff of PFJ.

Here are the All-AFC and All-NFC selections:

Most Valuable Player: Aaron Rogers, GB

Offensive Player of the Year: Aaron Rogers, GB

Defensive Player of the Year: J.J. Watt, Hou

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Odell Beckham, Jr., NYG

Defensive Rookie of the Year:  Khalil Mack, Oak

Coach of the Year:   Bruce Arians, Ari

Comeback—Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England

Exec—John Schneider, GM, Seattle

Position Awards:

Offensive Lineman of the Year—Joe Thomas, T, Cleveland

Defensive Lineman of the Year—J.J. Watt, Houston

Linebacker of the Year—Justin Houston, Kansas City

Defensive Back of the Year—Richard Sherman, Seattle

Running Back of the Year—DeMarco Murray, Dallas

Receiver of the Year—Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh

Returner of the Year—Jacoby Jones, Baltimore

Special Teams Player of the Year—Matthew Slater, New England

Kicker/Punter of the Year—Pat McAfee, Indianapolis

PFJ's 2014 All-Rookie Team

Pro Football Journal

2014 All-Rookie Team

Dandy Don and the Single Back Offense

EXCELLENT 16-GAME STRETCH BY MEREDITH 
by T.J. Troup

As a 15-year old reading Street & Smith's pro football in late summer of '66 reading about the improvement of the Dallas Cowboy offense in '65. 

Statements that Dallas had Meredith roll out more as the key element are only partially true. Watching film of Dallas in the second half of '65 (2-5 in the first half) saw that Tom had the Dallas offense in a single-back wing alignment much of the time.

Yes, Dandy Don did roll out, but much more important with Hayes's speed, and three other receivers quickly into their patterns. The Cowpokes go 5-2 and "earn" a Playoff Bowl berth. Mel Renfro was moved to offense in '66 to further this alignment and with his speed and athletic ability no doubt he would have contributed. Injury allowed free agent Dan Reeves to get playing time; which he took advantage of—especially as a receiver).

Using 16 games as an evaluation of Dandy Don (last seven of '65, and first nine of '66) he completed 230 of 436 for 4,265 yards, with 37 going for touchdowns, and 21 intercepted. The most impressive part of his passing stats you ask? 9.78 yards per pass, which is Otto-esque!

Ok, guys your thoughts?

Warren Sapp's Lost Sack Title

LOOKING BACK
by John Turney

The 2000 NFL season was a good one for 3-techniques, well, at least two if them. The previous season Warren Sapp was voted the NFL Defensive Player of the Year by the AP and PFWA. In 2000 La'Roi Glover of the New Orleans Saints was voted the NFC Defensive Player of the Year by the KC Committee of 101. Sapp followed up is award-filled 1999 season with 16.5 sacks, tied with Trace Armstrong of the Miami Dolphins for second in the NFL. Glover led the NFL with 17. Or did he?

 On Sunday, November 26, 2000, the Saints played the Rams in St. Louis, and in that game Glover recorded 3 sacks on Trent Green. Here is the first as listed in the Gamebook

Credit: NFL.com

It shows Glover sacked Green, forced a fumble, which was recovered by Joe Johnson. However, in looking at the clip from YouTube, it shows that Glover hit Green low, but it was Joe Johnson, who stripped the ball from Green and then, in a bang-bang fashion, Glover took and empty-handed Green to the turf. It took Pat Summeral and John Madden, the Fox commentators calling the game, three replays to get the call right.

Since 1987 Elias Sports Bureau had a policy to review sacks if there was a question as to who should get credit, but usually the review was at the request of a team that had an interest in the scoring. If there was no beef, it stood as scored at the time. However, were it reviewed it may have led to Glover finishing with 16 sacks and Joe Johnson with 13, leaving Sapp and Armstrong as the sack champions for the year.

It is easy to see this was the type of play that needed further review, but it somehow slipped through the cracks. I contacted Elias that week to suggest they look at it, but I never heard a word back. At the Super Bowl in Tampa I ran into Seymour Siwoff at the media center and asked why his crew never got back, but he didn't know, but did tell me he wished I had pushed a little harder because they wanted to "get it right".

A review, at any rate, might have concluded the scorer in St. Louis was right anyway, or perhaps a split sack could have been considered. But, in a season like this, with a resurgence of several young and exciting 3-techniques, one of whom may be the NFL Defensive Player of the Year it brought to mind this play.

So, 15 years later, congratulations are in order for Warren Sapp and Trace Armstrong, the unofficial sack leaders of the 2000 NFL Season.

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