The Safety Dance: A Look at Some of the Better Safeties of the Last Three Decades

LOOKING BACK
By John Turney

Credit: Jordan Spector

Hall of Fame voter Rick Gosselin has written that safeties are underrepresented in the Pro Football Hall of Fame and that seems to be true. Three extremely strong candidates are up or will be up soon. Brian Dawkins is eligible now, Ed Reed will be in 2019 and  Troy Polamalu is eligible in 2010. All three should get in soon, in fact, Reed and Polamalu are likely first-ballot types, Reed especially.

John Lynch is also eligible but his credentials, while fine, are not in the class of Reed, Dawkins, and Polamalu. But he, too, should get in. However, there are quite a lot of fine safeties that have played since the late-1978 and while not all are HOFers, some are members of the Hall of Very Good and others likely will be in the near future.

Here is a chart (click to enlarge) showing a basic comparison of the honors won by a select group of safeties.

Note on statistics:  This data for tackles, assists, passes defensed is gathered from play-by-play data and much of it is original research. We do not use coaches' statistics for tackles and assists because they vary from team to team. So, for consistency, we use the play-by-plays (often called gamebooks). Therefore, it sometimes will differ from various websites like NFLGSIS, Pro Football Reference (which we do use quite often), Fox Sports and ESPN. 

The following are the career stats of the players in the chart—The following are the career stats of the players in the chart—

The only knock on Dawkins, and it is not much of one, is that he didn't pick off a lot of passes—relatively speaking. He never had more than four in a season and finished with 37 career picks. However, he could do it all: cover, blitz, tackle, and had great range. The key stats to us are the 26 sacks and 36 forced fumbles which are huge for a safety, as is his 47.5 tackles for loss (stuffs). Were we to guess we think Dawkins gets voted into the Hall of Fame this upcoming February with the Class of 2018.

We think Ed Reed is the best free safety of all time, though some would disagree. He had such range and instincts and made so many plays that the case is there for him being the G.O.A.T (greatest of all-time) but we will see in two years if the Hall of Fame selection committee agrees by making him one of the few safeties voted in on the first ballot. At that point, the debates can begin.

John Lynch has been close to getting into the Hall of Fame, having been on the Final 15 list a few times. Lynch picked off 26 passes (low for a safety) but had 44.0 stuffs, which is excellent, and add in 13.0 sacks to that for a total of 57.0 plays behind the line of scrimmage.

However, since it is unlikely that more than one safety would be voted into the HOF in any given year it seems likely that Lynch will have to wait until Dawkins and Reed get in. Lynch did go to nine Pro Bowls, though the last two seem a bit dubious, perhaps based on reputation. Nonetheless, we'd expect that Lynch will get into the HOF in 2020 or soon thereafter.

                                                                            

Carnell Lake's career is haLake is hard to evaluate since he was so versatile and spent about two-and-a-half years as a cornerback and was a good one at that. He was generally an in-the-box-safety, making plays around the line of scrimmage. He was a First- or Second-team All-Pro five times and got postseason honors in seven seasons and was voted the the 1990s All-Decade team as one of the Second-team safeties. He was certainly a fun player to watch since he was around the action so much.

Like Carnell Lake, LeRoy Butler could do a lot from his strong safety position. Also like Lake, Butler played some cornerback and again, like Lake he made a lot of plays around and behind the line of scrimmage. In addition, though, Butler picked off passes (38). Not quite the number of Donnie Shell, the record holder for strong safeties, but still, a goodly number.

No offense to Ronnie Lott but he didn't belong on the 1990s All-Decade Team, even if it was a Second-team selection. A better choice would have been Darren Woodson. Lott only played have he decade and his years with the Jets were average, at best. Woodson was right there with Butler and Lake as a playmaking strong safety and was part of the Cowboys' championship runs. He was also a noted special teams player.

Steve Atwater gets a lot of HOF notice and for good reason. He is aided by having a signature play which is his hit on Christian Okoye of the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football on September 17, 1990. However, our personal favorite was his point-blank interception of Jay Schroeder in 1989. Schroeder fired a pass, and Atwater instantly put both hands up and stabbed the ball at what looked to be a distance of five or so yards. To us, that is his second "signature play".

He only picked off 24 passes and had only 5 sacks (low compared to his contemporaries but did have 38.0, which is a good number.

Darren Sharper is persona non grata for being sentenced to almost two decades in prison in a case in which he was accused of drugging and raping multiple women in multiple states, although Hall of Fame bylaws prevent holding off-the-field actions against a candidate and that may be true, but Sharper won't ever get enough votes to be on the semifinalist list. There are just too many other good candidates to waste time with this guy.

              

Troy Polamalu was an exciting player, the epitome of an in-the-box safety who was the AP NFL Defensive Player of the Year in 2010 and his 2008 season was just as good. He should have no trouble being inducted into the Hall of Fame.

Rodney Harrison is an interesting case. When you look at his numbers, you ask why he wasn't All-Pro more. In 2000, he had 127 tackles, eight for a loss, six sacks and six interceptions (one going for a score) and defended 17 passes. It's hard for a strong safety to get more big plays in a season than that. And as a result, he wasn't as much as All-AFC or a Pro Bowler, much less a First- or Second-team All-Pro. Perhaps he had a reputation amongst voters for being a cheap-shot artist. True or not, Harrison was a fine strong safety who was solid in all aspects of the game.

Maybe the most underrated free safety of his era was Eugene Robinson. He didn't get many postseason honors but according to one pro scouting firm, he was thought to be the best free safety in the NFL in the 1990s.  

Tim McDonald was All-Pro twice, though neither was consensus, and got post-season honors eight times. He was not the classic in-the-box strong safety, playing deep as often as he moved down and was productive at both spots—totaling 50 stuffs and 40 interceptions.                                                                                                                                                                                             

 Lawyer Milloy was replaced by the Patriots by Rodney Harrison after quite a few very good seasons. With the Pats, Milloy got postseason honors four times and helped them win their first Super Bowl, playing a part in slowing down the Rams Greatest Show on Turf.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Hanks had a short career and, like Carnell Lake and LeRoy Butler, played some cornerback. His peak was from 1994-97 when he picked off 22 passes in those four years and went to four Pro Bowls.                    

Nolan Cromwell was on his way to the Hall of Fame until a knee injury in 1984 felled him. He came 

back in 1985 but was never the same playmaker that he had been from 1979-84. In those early years,

there likely has not been a free safety with more range, leaping ability, instincts and ball skills. He was a good hitter and even better tackler. Under Bud Carson's Cover-2 schemes, he was able to cover half the field with relative ease and in the sub-packages, could play cornerback and run the routes better than the wide receivers he was covering. In 1983 he moved to strong safety and was Second-team All-Pro and made his fourth Pro Bowl. But, as Howard Cosell used to say, "th-e kn-ee, al-ways th-e kn-ee".

Mike Giddings has always stated that he does not have higher grades on any strong safety than Donnie Shell during his time. He was "always blue," according to them. Even after his All-Pro run, he was highly productive from 1983-86, picking off 19 passes. Early in his career he was a special teams demon and worked well in the Steelers sub packages in 1976 as a blitzing safety. He was a hard-hitting safety with lots of range.

Browner is yet another safety that began his career as a corner and special teams maven who moved to safety. Browner liked to tackle players by grabbing them with his extraordinarily strong hands and throwing them to the turf in violent fashion.

Deron Cherry may have been the best ball-hawking safety of the 1980s, even including Ronnie Lott. From 1983-86 he snagged 30 passes. Our favorite year of his may have been 1988 when he picked off seven passes and covered six fumbles for a total of 13 turnovers.

Not much need be said about Ronnie Lott. A first-ballot Hall of Famer, an eight-time All-Pro (six consensus) and 10 Pro Bowls. he began as a corner from 1981-84, even though he was the corner in the base defense and would move to free safety in nickel and dime defenses. Later in his career, he moved to strong safety with the Raiders and had a superlative season for them in 1991.

Easley was just inducted into the Hall of Fame. Even though he had a short career he was a dominant player. He was a hard hitter and had good range, in fact, he'd have likely been a HOF free safety had he been asked to play away from the tight end.  

Running Backs With Short Careers: With Terrell Davis in the HOF is There Hope?

LOOKING AHEAD

By John Turney

Credit:  Alain Moreau 

Now that the Terrell Davis should he/should he not be in the Hall of Fame is over, perhaps it is a good time to look ahead at some other running backs that had short careers due to injury (as was the case with Terrell Davis).

We have included a few Hall of Famers for some comparison, they are not necessarily "lower tier" Hall of Famers, just players who had shorter careers than some of the running backs who were healthier and could compile lots of yards.

All graphics courtesy of Pro Football Reference

 Priest Holmes had three Offensive Player of the Year-type seasons from 2001 through 2003. He was on his way to a fourth in 2004 but missed half the season due to an injury. He was never the same after that. His per 16-game averages for 2001-04 are as follows: 343 carries for 1624 yards (a 4.7 average) and 21 rushing touchdowns. His receiving totals per 16 games are 67 catches for 641 yards and 2 TDs (9.6 average). That's a per 16-game average of 2265 yards from scrimmage and 23 touchdowns from scrimmage. Not bad production.

He didn't have the post-season production that Davis did so the question is how do his three best compare to Davis's?

Davis was likely voted over the top due to his post-season success. He was extremely effective and was a major factor in the Broncos being home two Lombardi Trophies to Denver. His rookie season was excellent but it was his All-Pro seasons of 1996-98 that defined his career.

Larry Brown, according to Paul "Dr. Z" Zimmerman, ran too hard for his body. Zim said the same thing about Wilbert Montgomery who could also be featured in this post. Brown was the AP and NEA MVP in 1972. He could have had more yards that season but George Allen rested him the final two weeks of the season. It was a wise move as Allen relied on Brown and had him carry the ball 55 times in two playoff games. It got the Redskins to the Super Bowl but Brown and the Redskins ran into the No Name defense of the soon-to-be 17-0 Dolphins.

Brown was also an All-Pro in 1970 and a Second-team All-Pro in 1971 after being a Pro Bowler as a rookie in 1969. So his "peak", if you will, is 4-5 years, depending on how one looks at 1973. Brown scored 14 total touchdowns in 1973 but his rushing average was 3.2 and the literature of the day was suggesting he was on the downside of his career already. Allen must have seen it as well as he brought in Duane Thomas in 1974 and then John Riggins in 1975 to be his ball carriers. Riggins worked out, Thomas? Not so much.

Chuck Foreman didn't get injured he, like Brown, just seemed to run out of gas. He was the Offensive Rookie of the Year in 1973 and then the Sporting News NFC Offensive Player of the Year in 1974 and his best season was neither of those two. In 1975 he scored 22 touchdowns and led the NFL in receptions with 73. Nine of his 22 touchdowns came off the arm of Fran Tarkenton and are still tied for the NFL record for touchdown catches by a running back in a single season.

Foreman was All-Pro again in 1976 and was also the UPI NFC Offensive Player of the Year making 1976 essentially his third straight season of OPOY quality. Foreman, along with Lydell Mitchell expanded the passing game in the NFL, though Ted Marchibroda may have pioneered using backs in this way in 1966, in the mid-1970s it was taken to a new level. Incidentally, Marchibroda was Mitchell's coach in Baltimore and Jerry Burns was the master-mind for Foreman's Vikings.

Regardless, from 1974-76 no one in the NFL scored more touchdowns than Foreman and they went to the Super Bowl three times in his first four seasons and from having seen them play quite a lot, there is no way they go to those games without Foreman. He was an impact player.

In 1986 William Andrews came back from a devastating knee injury and was simply not effective. He last was on an NFL field in the preseason of 1984 and even though he had the heart the body just would follow. Prior to the injury, he was a very dynamic running back. He was a tough, hard runner and was very effective as a receiver in an era when not all backs were effective in the passing game.

He was an All-Pro in 1983 and was on various Second-teams in 1980, 1981 and 1982. His per-16 game averages from 1980 through 1982 were 287 carries for 1333 yards, a 4.6-yard average, and seven touchdowns. He also (on a per-16 game basis) averaged 65 receptions for 646 yards (9.9 average) and three touchdown receptions. The per 16-game average is handy here due to the 1981 players strike.

His peak of four years or so matches up very well with all of these players on the outside looking in the Hall of fame and also fares well against some of the players in the Hall of Fame.

Like Priest Holmes, Billy Sims was on his way to a great season when a knee injury felled him in 1984. His yards per carry was up, he was on pace for perhaps 1400 yards and 60 catches. And then it was over. Sims was All-Pro in 1981 and in 1980 he wasn't but with players like Walter Payton and Earl Campbell in the league, it was hard to make All-Pro with just the two running back slots. Sims didn't play on great teams like Terrell Davis but his per-game stats measure with the best—

Campbell was another running back who just got worn out. From 1978though 1980 he was as good a back as the game had seen then, poof, from 1981 through the end of his career he was a good-to-average running back. He was a three-time MVP (1979 he was consensus, 1978 and 1980 he was the NEA MVP).  But, really, he had three great years and three decent years and two that were forgettable. But, the peak was so great he was a first-ballot Hall of Famer.

Leroy Kelly was a four-time All-Pro (1966-68 and 1971) and was a Second-team All-Pro in 1969. The 1969 and 1971 post-season honors are a result of no dominant backs in those seasons. Really, as is the pattern in this post, Kelly's greatness was his peak seasons of 1966-68. Those three seasons he averaged just under 1200 yards rushing, 14 rushing touchdowns, and 5.2 yards a carry, clearly the stuff of Hall of Famers. However, in the four following seasons (1969-72), he averaged 787 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 3.7 yards a carry. hardly the stuff of Hall of Famers.

 Like Leroy Kelly, the "other number 44", Floyd Little is someone with a short peak and some years that were, shall we say, "less than productive".

Little was All-Pro in 1969 and 1971 and won a rushing title in 1971. He played behind a line that had three players make one Pro Bowl (actually AFL All-Star game)—Larry Kaminski (1967), George Goeddeke (1969) and Mike Current (also 1969). So, Little got little help.

Still, Little led the NFL in rushing touchdowns from 1971-73 and was tied with Larry Brown in total touchdowns from 1971-73. But, once again, really we are discussing a three-year peak or four-five at best.

Gale Sayers is the gold standard for the short-career Hall of Famer. Many students of the game; researchers and writers have long referred to the "Gale Sayers Exception" when discussing any player whose career lacked longevity due to injury. Dwight Stephenson was one such player. Though he played just eight seasons he was a five-time First-team All-Pro and a five-time Pro Bowler and a five-time NFLPA AFC Offensive Lineman of the Year.

He was so far ahead of other centers that his short career didn't matter to the voters, though he was not a first-ballot HOFer. He had a wait a short time until the "Gale Sayers Exception" kicked in.

Taking a Closer Look at Recent Wide Receivers

LOOKING AHEAD
By John Turney

Credit: Jeff Lang

Recently a fine football website asked the question "If the best wide receiver since Rice can't get into the Hall of Fame on his first ballot, then who can?" The query followed a tome making the case that Randy Moss should be a first-ballot Hall of Famer.

We are not sure if Moss will be a first-ballot inductee or now, but if he is, great for him, if not, like with the Terrell Owens case it will not be a national tragedy.

We suspect that Owens will be voted into the Class of 2018 and Moss to the Class of 2019. In our view, not that it matters much, both are Hall of Famers but neither are close enough to Rice to share being a First-ballot inductee with him. Rice is just too far ahead of both of them in honors, stats and in championships, though Moss is a bit closer than Owens.
(Click to enlarge)

This chart shows the votes wide receivers have tallied in the AP Offensive Player of the Year Awards since 1972. Among receivers Rice dominates. Maybe until someone gets half or even a third as many there shouldn't be a First-ballot HOF receiver.

The following chart has post-1992 numbers for a couple of advanced stats. Targets and drops. And the percentages correlated to them.

What can be gleaned is that perhaps the next First-ballot WR is still active and his name may be Larry Fitzgerald. The thing of note is that he's still compiling numbers and if he keeps up productivity for a few more years he will rank high in the major numbers. Additionally, he and Hines Ward are considered the two of the top wide receiver blockers of this era and some may suggest THE top two.

Not only that, Fitzgerald has the best hands of this era, not only does film (video) study show that, the statistics do, too. He's only dropped 27 passes of 1880 targets (1.4%) and it's far above his contemporaries and it's miles ahead of Terrell Owens who is credited by Stats, LLC with 130 drops (7.0%) in his career.

So the answer to the openining question may likely be Larry Fitzgerald.

Here are the career stats of some selected WRs some already in the HOF, others likely and a few that may not make it but had impressive careers nonetheless.

In reference to Moss, he has several negatives of his own, which are somewhat similar to Owens. In 2011 Jerry Rice said:

In 2001 there was the "I play when I want to play":

Then there was the halftime outburst that got him traded and his later explanation. So, if Moss does have to wait a season expect the outcries and cutting criticism of the Hall of Fame committee and some of those critics will be armed with basic stats like "He was second in this, or third-all time in that" but they won't comment how far back Moss is in those same statistics. Like the Terrell Owens candidacy, the critics will overstate things and say "Moss is being kept out".

It is NOT about keeping anyone out. It's about deciding if Owens and Moss are First-ballot worthy and in totality, the numbers suggest not. Owens and Moss have half as many All-Pro selections and half as many Pro Bowl selections. Neither got much support for AP Offensive Player of the year while Rice got plenty. Neither has the rings Rice has, neither has the "black ink"—a term used for when a player leads the league in a major category.

So, perhaps this time around those who are astute in following the Hall of Fame process will look at ALL the numbers and not cherry-pick just the ones that make their case that Owens was and Moss is a first-ballot HOF-worthy. The totality of the numbers suggests they were not, though as we mentioned earlier in this post, Moss is closer than Owens since he didn't have the "drop problem" Owens did.

But, alas, we doubt it. If Moss is "snubbed" there will be the usual suspects making the usual arguments and attacking anyone who dares have a different opinion based on all the numbers.

BILLY HOWTON: Throw It and I'll Catch It

LOOKING BACK
By T.J. Troup

The Green Bay Packers lost their last seven games of 1951 as their ground attack struggled all season. The Packers did, however, set a new record for passes attempted in a season with 478. Bobby Thomason and Tobin Rote shared the quarterback position and both had some strong games pitching the pigskin.

Historically the NFL draft of 1952 has been discussed as one of the most talented ever. Fourteen men will be taken in the draft before Green Bay selects a tall, lean, and swift split end named Billy Howton. Five of those previous fourteen are in the Hall of Fame. Howton is not, yet his saga needs to be shared.

Howton's rookie season is one that ranks among the best ever by any receiver before the 1970 AFL-NFL merger. In the first nine games of the year he has caught at least one pass in every game, but the last three games of the season he runs routes and catches passes to the tune of 21 receptions for 485 yards, and 5 touchdowns.

This kind of production compares with the immortal Don Hutson! Billy receives first team All-Pro recognition. Expectations are high for 1953 as the Packers were in the thick of the Western Conference race till late in the 1952 season, but Howton has a chest injury that keeps him out of the lineup for the first four games. Though he plays well during the latter half of 1953 and contributes in 1954 the Packers struggle to win games.

Green Bay opens the 1955 season at home against a Detroit Lions team that has beaten them 11 straight times and outscored them 363 to 191. The hard-hitting affair against the three time western conference champion has come down to the 4th quarter with Detroit leading 17-13. Earlier in the game after a fine catch, Howten is hit hard and coughs up the ball. Middle linebacker Joe Schmidt of the Lions scoops up the ball and is pictured on the cover of my book "The Birth of Football's Modern 4-3 Defense: The Seven Seasons That Changed the NFL" returning the ball 17 yards.

Tobin Rote keys the final drive of the game with some timely completions, and a 28-yard dash up the middle. Time is running short when Rote throws to Howton on a stop route. Billy is running for the sideline but realizes he is going to be tackled in bounds and fumbles the ball on purpose out of bounds. This photo is captured in Mickey Herskowitz excellent book "The Golden Age of Pro Football".

The clock is now stopped with just 25 seconds left. Rote drops back and finds Gary Knafelc open on a quick post for 18 yards and the winning touchdown. Green Bay has a record of 1-2 as they take on the 1955 defending western conference champion Rams in Milwaukee. Howton has one of the greatest performances by a receiver ever in this game. During the first half, he snags 6 passes for 204 yards. Green Bay upsets the Rams 42-17. November the 4th the defending league champion Browns take on the Packers in Milwaukee. No team is as well prepared to take on an opponent as a Paul Brown team and film study details this aspect. Green Bay is knocking on the door to the end zone as left linebacker Chuck Noll "walks" off to align in front of Billy to disrupt his route, yet Howton's quickness gets him off the line. Howton splits the two Cleveland safeties and scores on a curl route for the only Packer touchdown in the game.

Green Bay travels to Wrigley Field to take on their long time rivals in navy blue & burnt orange. Late in the 4th quarter rookie Bart Starr is at quarterback and he lofts a beautiful pass up the right sideline over pro bowl left corner J.C. Caroline for 53 yards to Howton. Green Bay and the league manuals still have this incorrect as Starr is listed with a passing long of 36 for the year. Howton's excellent performance during the year brings him unanimous All-Pro recognition.

Green Bay has a new stadium for 1957 and early in the 4th quarter, the Packers have excellent field position on the Chicago forty-nine yard line. Babe Parilli fires to Billy for 41 yards to set up the game winning touchdown pass to Gary Knafelc. The Baltimore Colts are truly contenders for the Western Conference crown in 1957 and are at home against a Packer team that has now lost three straight. Late in the 4th quarter trailing 21-17 strong armed Babe Parilli comes off the bench and heaves a long pass up the right sideline as Billy has easily run by reserve left corner Henry Moore. The pass is on the money for 77 yards and the game winning score.

From this point on the Packers will stumble to the depths of their history as they go 2-16-1 for the remainder of 1957 and 1958. There are teams that bring out the best in a player, and for Howton, that team is the Rams. How many receivers historically have caught at least 47 passes for a minimum of 1,185 yards against an opponent the first ten times they face them?

Vince Lombardi needs help revitalizing the roster as he begins his tenure in Green Bay; thus on April 24, 1959, Howton is traded to Cleveland for Lew Carpenter and Bill Quinlan. Billy Howton played outstanding and consistent football for the Packers as he caught a pass all but three games during his time in Green Bay. A new chapter, but a very short one as Howton plays just one year for Paul Brown, yet it is the only winning team he plays on.

He is too talented to be let go in the expansion draft but is traded to Dallas on September 6th for a conditional draft pick. Howton is back in Texas where he played college football, but he is going to see many a player come and go as Tom Landry attempts to put a quality team on the field. Billy is not very productive for the most part in the '60 season, yet finishes strong with 12 catches for 162 yards and 2 scores over the last two games of the year. Dallas wins on opening day in 1961 and Howton is a key contributor in the first Cowboy victory with 6 catches for 138 yards. Later in the season against the defending league champion Eagles, he latches onto 11 passes as he torments the Philadelphia secondary with the variety of moves he has come to be known for. Though he still has some quickness, he has lost some of his swiftness—yet Billy can run every route.

Film study shows he can run an out route, the deep fade, the post/corner (Q), and the curl route well, yet he runs the slant to perfection. The last day of the 1962 season Dallas is again on the losing side; this time to the eastern conference champion Giants, but Billy is still the wily veteran as he catches 3 passes for 108 yards and 2 touchdowns. He has now caught 470 passes for 7,945 yards, and 58 touchdowns in his career, and is fast approaching breaking Don Hutson's records for catches and yardage.

The issue though going into 1963 is the Baltimore Colts have an excellent receiver named Raymond Berry who with 419 catches for 6,217 yards is just 30 years old and looks to have a few more seasons with Mr. John Unitas. Yes, Howton does break Hutson's records, but as most know Berry soon passes Howton. Billy has his moments in the final campaign of his career. November the 10th against San Francisco he catches 8 passes for 107 yards, and his last touchdown, and you guessed it the final TD comes on a slant pattern. Though he will likely never be in the Hall of Fame Billy Howton is one fine receiver that should never be forgotten.