Third Down Gets Tampa Going in Win at Green Bay

 By Eric Goska

.Tom Brady threw for 157 yards on third down against the Packers

Tom Brady needs another Super Bowl appearance as much as he needs another fistful of dollars.

The greatest quarterback to ever play the game will get both as Tampa Bay fended off the Packers 31-26 at Lambeau Field. Green Bay’s supposed home-field advantage failed to materialize as the Buccaneers, who never trailed, secured the right to play into February.

Some athletes never seem to be denied. Sprinter Usain Bolt is an eight-time Olympic gold medalist. Tennis ace Rafael Nadal captured 12 French Open singles titles. Hurdler Edwin Moses prevailed in 122 consecutive races.

Brady, despite throwing picks on three consecutive second-half possessions, has now ascended to the league’s greatest stage for a record 10th time. He will be the first quarterback to compete for the Vince Lombardi trophy on his home field. And, according to Athlon Sports, he and his teammates will receive $59,000 apiece for having won the NFC championship game.

All is right in the universe.

The 43-year-old’s stat line on Sunday’s was far from other-worldly. In compiling a passer rating of 73.8, the former Patriot completed 20 of 36 passes for 280 yards while pitching three touchdowns and three interceptions.

But it was Brady’s mastery of third down in the first half that gave Tampa the upper hand. He torched Green Bay as never before in the postseason.

Brady converted three third downs on the Buccaneers’ opening drive. He floated a 27-yarder to Mike Evans on 3rd-and-4, he hit Chris Godwin near the sideline for 14 on 3rd-and-9, and he lofted a 15-yarder to Evans over cornerback Kevin King for a touchdown and a 7-0 lead.

The ageless wonder then converted one third down on each of Tampa’s next three advances. Godwin was his accomplice each time, hauling in a long of 52 that set up Leonard Fournette’s 20-yard touchdown run that sent the Buccaneers out front for good at 14-7.

Those third-down connections made up for deficiencies elsewhere. Drops by Fournette and others became immaterial. A running attack limited to just one gain of more than four yards in the first half never became a liability.

Brady’s third-down string ended with just over two minutes remaining in the second quarter. With linebacker Za’Darius Smith bearing down, Brady failed to hit tight end Cameron Brate near the Packers’ 40-yard line. Bradley Pinion then punted for a second time.

By then, the damage had been done. Brady’s six third-down passes accounted for 141 of Tampa’s 235 first-half yards. In less than 30 minutes of game time, he had accumulated more passing yards on that down than any other quarterback had in 59 previous playoff games against Green Bay.

Then, for good measure, Brady struck once more. He found rookie receiver Tyler Johnson for 16 on third down early in the fourth quarter.

In all, Brady completed seven of 11 third-down throws for 157 yards with a touchdown and an interception. Cornerback Jaire Alexander came away with the pick on Brady’s final third-down attempt.

Brady joins Daunte Culpepper (106), Don Meredith (101) and Matt Ryan (101) as the only players to have thrown for 100 or more yards on third down in a playoff game against the Packers. He is the first to have completed his first six throws.

Brady’s proficiency meant Tampa gained more yards on third down (160) than it down on first (118) or second down (67). The two other teams to have done that against Green Bay in the playoffs – the Giants in 1962 and the 49ers in 1997 – both lost.

Speaking of third down, Aaron Rodgers enjoyed a decent outing as well. The veteran connected on 8-of-11 throws for 129 yards and two touchdowns.

With those scores, Rodgers became the first Packers player to throw two TDs on third down in more than one postseason outing. He also fired two against Dallas in a 26-21 win at Lambeau Field on Jan. 11, 2015.

Unfortunately, Rodgers became the only Packer to have launched two in defeat. The others – Arnie Herber (1936) and Lynn Dickey (1983) – did so in victory.

Centurions

Quarterbacks who passed for 100 or more yards on third down in a playoff game against the Packers.
Yards     Name                            Team                     Date                   Result
  157         Tom Brady                   Buccaneers         Jan. 24, 2021       GB lost, 26-31
  106         Daunte Culpepper        Vikings              Jan. 9, 2005        GB lost, 17-31
  101         Don Meredith               Cowboys             Jan. 1, 1967         GB won, 34-27
  101         Matt Ryan                     Falcons               Jan. 22, 2017       GB lost, 21-44

And Now For Something Completely Different, Part II

 By John Turney

The passing of Hank Aaron certainly was sad and gave me great pause because like millions and millions I watched on television as he hit his 714th and 715th home runs, trying and breaking Babe Ruth's vaunted record. 

In reviewing his career it was clear that he was the better hitter between himself and my favorite baseball player—Willie Mays. In the late-1960s Mays just got old, he slowed down, got injured. And with the Mets he was a part-time player who slumped early and late in both 1972 and 1973 (though his mid-season stats were decent). 

So, while Hank was still hammerin' and Willie fell behind.

However, that is a topic for another day. 

A couple of weeks ago a Twitter account I followed asked to post great seasons for athletes 40 years of age and older (in reference to Brady and Brees and other older quarterbacks). My response was Willie Mays' 1971 season with 18 home runs and 23 stolen bases.

What I didn't do is look at that 1971 season in-depth, comparing it to other MLB seasons of players 40-and-older.

Here is an in-depth look with charts from Stathead Baseball. 

After all these years, Mays' 18 home runs at age 40 in 1971 is still tied for 20th all-time for players 40 and over. At the time it was third. 

Mays' 23 stolen bases are tied for eighth all-time for players of 40 and over. 

His stolen base percentage is second-best all-time for players 40 and older—

Mays had five triples in 1971, tied for 13th best-ever. And eight ahead of him are not really comparable due to eras. In the integration and live-ball era, he ranks much higher. 

Mays led the NL in walks and that total is 4th best ever among old guys.

Mays also led the NL in on-base percentage and that, among 40+, ranks in the top six ever—

For slugging percentage, over 40 with 350 or more plate appearances Mays is 15th. For 500 or more plate appearances he's sixth. 

His OPS is ninth—

No, we've buried the lede—His WAR is the best all-time for the geriatric crowd.

And his power-speed number is also tops -definition from BR

There are probably more stats. But 1971 was truly an A-Mays-ing year for Willie. The Giants won the West and lost to the Pirates in the NLCS.  He played a lot at first base and as can be seen at 40 he did a lot of things (power, speed, getting on base) than a lot of younger players couldn't and didn't do.

Not only that Willie sported orange-striped Adidas spikes, the first time he wore something other than all-black in his career, and the looked great (see photos at top of this post)

In the age of Drew Brees and Tom Brady, here is a tip of the glass to the Sey Hey Kid.

Interesting Nugget on Clay Matthews

By John Turney

Yesterday the Hall of Fame committee met and discussed and voted for the HOF Class of 2021. Among the Final fifteen moderns players discusses was Clay Matthews. 

As has been widely discussed on the Internet and especially social media Matthews was All-Pro Just once and went to Pro Bowls in four other seasons. He had (according to us, using play-by-plays as a source) 1,440 tackles and 82.5 sacks. Good, but to what you'd call over-the-top numbers. He didn't have a ring and wasn't All-Decade. His biggest "hook" was that he was a man out of his time, he was the 1970s or 1990s player in the 1980s, when linebackers were rushing the passer all the time and he was an all-around linebacker, rushing some, covering a lot, and playing the run well. 

We don't know if he will be inducted into the Hall or not, that will be announced Super Bowl Saturday.

However, we did want to discuss one aspet of his career we thought was pretty cool.

In 1996, at age 40, Clay Matthews played a new role one he had done before—right defensive end in the Falcons nickel defense. It was his final year and in that role, he totaled 6.5 sacks. 

Maybe you don't think that is an impressive number, and maybe it isn't, even for a 40-year old converted linebacker. 

But consider this:

The 6.5 sacks--the most ever for a 40-year old.  And that's more sacks in his final year than these players—

• Bruce Smith (5.0 sacks), who was a nickel end for the last half of his final year.
• Reggie White (5.5).
• Deacon Jones (3.0), who was a nickel left end for Washington in 1974.
• Claude Humphrey (3.0) was a nickel left end for the Eagles in 1981.
• Fred Dean (3.0) was was nickel right end for 49ers (elephant) his final season.
• Richard Dent (4.5) played nickel right end for Eagles his last year.
• Charles Haley (3.0) Was the Elephant nickel end for 49ers.
• Lawrence Taylor (6.0) in his final year. 
• Howie Long (6.0)
• Carl Eller (3.0)
• He had the same number of sacks Elvin Bethea had in Elvin's last FIVE years (6.5)

So, for those who were situation pass rushers, he did a better job than they did though it was relatively new to him and he was older than all of them except Bruce Smith. And he had more than some players who were still starting. And that is just among Hall of Fame edge rushers. This list would be much longer if non-HOF edge rushers were included.

We are not suggesting one year makes him a Hall of Famer, of course, but it does suggest the man was a football player who could do what was asked of him—at any age and that is one piece of the puzzle or one extra intangible few others have on their Hall of Fame resume. 

Just food for thought. 

TUESDAY TIDBITS: 50 Years of Championship Games

By TJ Troup

Bernie Kosar

Going to begin with some responses and statements before digging into the upcoming title games. 

Yes, Kaimac 77 there are defensive stats for the late 1940s and the decade of the 1950s. How do I know this? My library has them due to due diligence called research. Every interception, and now with recent research every opponent fumble recovery. 

Pass rush statistics are not as complete, though there are two men; John Turney & Nick Webster who started me on that path, and have film, and play by plays to add additional info. Have read more than one article concerning when the first Super Bowl should have been with the Chargers taking on the Bears, but 1964 should have been the year with Gilchrist vs. Brown. So, Brian Wolf imagines those two standing toe to toe eyeing each other, and not saying a word before kick-off. 

For those of you who steadfastly read this column, you have been inundated with statistics. Efficiency ratings for passers and defense, but more importantly—when a team does this or that what percentage do they win? When a team returns an interception for a touchdown in a regular-season game that teams wins just about 80% of the time. One team has a 100-yard rusher, and their opponent does not, the team with the 100-yard rusher wins 77% of the time in the regular season. 

Well, the regular season is over, and the following is not a complete play-off history(though that has been done)—we have had 50 years of championship games since the wildcard was brought into play with the merger in 1970. How do those stats compare to the regular season?

There have been 424 sacks in the 100 championship games with 249 by the winning team (58.7%), just not sure how much of a factor the pass rush will be Sunday? There have been 442 turnovers in those 100 games, with 305 takeaways by the winners (69%). 

Now that is a key element we all can wrap our heads around. There have been 15 interceptions returned for a touchdown, with 14 in victory (93.3%)—a 13% increase, and boy oh boy imagine if the team you are cheering for has a player returning the ball through the maze of offense players and headed to the end zone. Game-changing! 

Though how the game is played has undergone an evolution over the past 50 years with the passing game, will go to my grave still believing you can win when you run the ball.....no, no.....not run the ball-----RUN THE BALL. 

There have been 33 one hundred yard rushers in title game history, and the breakdown is as follows. Twice both teams have had a 100-yard rusher, so we throw those out based upon my criteria. Of the remaining twenty-nine; 27 have been by the winning team or 93.1%—16% higher than the regular season. Wow! Now that has meaning. 

Years ago combined both together—when a team has a 100-yard rusher and returns an interception for a touchdown they win about 91% of the time. Only three times this has happened in a championship game, and will surmise readers you would like to know who? 

The first was when the Cowboys are in the Coliseum in January of '79 with Dorsett gaining 101, and Hollywood Henderson returning an interception for 68 in the demolition of the Rams. 

Thomas Henderson returning a pick 6 vs the Rams in 1978 NFCCG

The stands at RFK rocked as the Washington fans chanted "we want Dallas" and the next week Darryl Grant returned an interception 10 yards to score, while Riggo pounded away relentlessly behind the hogs for 140. 

Darryl Grant returning an interception for a touchdown in the 1982 NFCCG

The last time came on January 20th, 1991, a day of celebration for Buffalo fans when outside linebacker Darryl Talley scored on his 27 yard return, and Thurman Thomas gained 138 in the destruction of the Raiders. The odds are long that this last stat will happen—with only three of one hundred, but you never know? 

Darryl Talley with the pick 6 versus the Raiders in the 1990 AFCCG

Every announcer this week will state that teams need to get off to a fast start, yet you never have a number to go with it? Scoring the first touchdown (the hell with field goals) is monumental. Only one title game without a touchdown (Rams over Bucs)—so for the other 99? 

AFC is 38 of 50 meaning 76% of the time the team that scores the first touchdown wins. NFC is 37 of 49 meaning 75.5% of the time the NFC team that scores first wins. Ok, you have what is the tried and true, looking forward to seeing how the games this weekend fit into this narrative. 

There have been so many outstanding games on January 16th or 17th, had a difficult time which game to choose? For all of you, would relish which games historically on either of those dates you would have chosen, but for me, the game that stands out is January 17th, 1988. 

My favorite quarterback of all-time is Bernie Kosar and always enjoyed watching John Elway do his magic; thus the rematch of "the drive". Dick Enberg was a joy to listen to as an announcer, and his partner at that time Merlin Olsen while very astute and knowledgeable would sometimes lack emotion in his analysis. Not so on this Sunday. 

Not just Denver jumping out to a 21-3 lead, and not just because Bernie brought his boys back into the game with a 28-10 rally to tie the game at 31. The ebb and flow for me was compelling and had me so focused, not sure how many Dr. Peppers I had that afternoon as the action came across the screen. Have watched that game more than once. Championship Sunday is coming in five days—cannot wait!

Four Productive Quarters Send Pack to NFC Championship Game

 By Eric Goska

Fans tailgated near Lambeau Field
ahead of the Rams-Packers divisional playoff game. 

The Packers’ offense took no quarter…off.

Green Bay spread the wealth from start to finish as it dismantled Los Angeles and its top-ranked defense 32-18 Saturday at Lambeau Field. In doing so, the Packers established a first in franchise playoff history.

This divisional playoff matchup was billed as irresistible force (GB’s offense) meets an immovable object (LA's defense). That led to the question: Which would prevail with a ticket to the NFC championship game on the line?

No team allowed fewer yards per game (281.9), fewer passing yards per game (190.7), or fewer points (296) during the regular season than did the Rams. No club boasted a higher-rated passing attack (121.5) or scored more points (509) than did the Packers.

Something had to give.

Green Bay commandeered 484 yards and 28 first downs in prevailing by 14 points. It controlled the ball for 36 minutes and 12 seconds while going 8-for-12 on third down.

But those totals don’t speak to the consistency with which the team operated. By quarter, the Green and Gold amassed 108, 135, 129 and 112 yards.

Never in 58 previous playoff games had the team hit or surpassed 100 yards in all four quarters.

How steady was the Pack? They held the upper hand in time of possessions in each 15-minute period. They produced 7, 9, 6, and 6 first downs.

Green Bay ripped off one play of more than 25 yards in each quarter. Those gains – Equanimeous St. Brown (27-yard reception); Robert Tonyan (33-yard grab); Aaron Jones (60-yard run); Allen Lazard (58-yard catch) – all occurred on scoring drives.

Aaron Rodgers and his mates put up points on each of the team’s first five drives, the best start to any postseason game in team history. Then, following consecutive punts, the offense clicked for a touchdown and closed out the game by holding the ball for the final 4:59.

Only five other playoff teams this century registered a four-pack of 100s. The Patriots, with 613 yards of offense in their Super Bowl loss to the Eagles, were the last.

In being so unerringly relentless, Green Bay prevented the Rams from doing the same. Los Angeles failed to gain more than 75 yards in any quarter.

Thus, the Packers became the first playoff team this century to have four 100s while holding their opponent without one.

Even during the regular season, this idea of have and have not has been exceedingly rare. Green Bay has turned the trick just twice since 1944.

The Packers (122, 115, 112, 106) thrashed San Francisco (5, minus-5, 88, 75) by a score of 41-14 on Oct. 23, 1960. Twenty-five years later, the Green and Gold (105, 131, 120, 156) shut out Tampa Bay (21, 22, 9, 13) in the Snow Bowl.

And that’s it. Just twice in the last 77 years have the Pack held four of a kind while their opponent went bust.

Knowing that, don’t expect a repeat performance as Green Bay hosts the NFC championship game. Asking lightning to strike twice in consecutive weeks is asking too much.

The 400 Club

Playoff games in which the Packers gained 400 or more yards.

   Yards     By Quarter                   Date               Opponent      Result
     493       (13-123-184-166-7)     Jan. 10, 2010       Cardinals         GB lost, 45-51 (OT)
     484       (108-135-129-112)       Jan. 16, 2021       Rams                GB won, 32-18
     479       (92-179-151-57)           Jan. 12, 1997        Panthers          GB won, 30-13
     466       (-5-108-216-147)         Jan. 16, 1983        Cowboys          GB lost, 26-37
     442       (80-188-130-44)          Jan. 15, 2011        Falcons            GB won, 48-21
     425       (64-80-156-125)          Jan. 11, 2015        Cowboys          GB won, 26-21
     414       (151-81-98-84)             Jan. 15, 2017        Cowboys          GB won, 34-31
     408       (142-88-126-52)          Jan. 12, 2008       Seahawks        GB won, 42-20
     406       (7-140-125-134)           Jan. 8, 2017         Giants              GB won, 38-13
     403       (107-108-87-101)        Jan. 3, 1999         49ers                GB lost, 27-30
     401       (81-100-101-119)        Dec. 26, 1960       Eagles              GB lost, 13-17

Defensive Scores, Most All-Time

 By John Turney 

For regular season only this is the list for the most defensive scores (scoop and scores plus pick sixes and defensive safeties).

It's a four-way tie at the top with thirteen. If you want to break the tie, then give it to Ronder barber who had a pick-6 in the 2002 playoffs to give him 14 and Aeneas Williams had two interceptions returns for touchdowns in the 2001 playoffs (both in the same game versus the Packers) so he jumps to 14 as well.

Jason Taylor is the only defensive linemen represented and the top linebacker is Bobby Bell.

Chart: PFJ search using PFR

We will add one caveat, there may be a player with six scores who scored defensively in the playoffs and would be at the bottom of this list, but we didn't go down that far with the playoff scores.

Question: How Many Touchdowns Did Malcolm Butler Allow?

By Nick Webster

Malcom Butler

A few years back Malcolm Butler was the man who saved the Super Bowl for the Patriots famously jumping the route on the game’s decisive play and bursting onto the scene from relative anonymity.  

This year he will be known – consistently – as the most targeted CB in the NFL. Just look where everyone else does on Pro Football Reference (PFR) of Pro Football Focus (PFF) and you will learn he was the most picked on. PFR will tell you that Butler was Targeted 127 times in 2020, allowing 80 Completions for 873 Yards and 5 TDs. Now PFR does not compile these numbers they merely present these ‘Advanced’ defensive stats which are compiled by Sportradar. 

However, if PFF is your preferred source you will agree that he was the most targeted, but nothing else. PFF credits Butler with 116 Targets, 73 Completions for 892 Yards and 4 TDs.  

Now spiritually the numbers are similar as the PFR rating is 83.2 and the PFF rating is 83.7; nobody cares about this difference (it's close enough for rock and roll)  but when we look closer and some interesting questions arise.

It’s tempting, evaluating Butler’s numbers to suggest that Sportradar simply credited him with being in primary coverage on 11 plays where PFF did not. On those plays 7 were completions and 1 was a touchdown; however, somehow PFF has credited Butler with allowing 19 more receiving yards than Sportradar. 

The only way this can happen is if there were more than 11 targets and 7 completions that were differently assigned, there must have been at least one more Target not assigned to Butler and one that Sportradar assigned to someone else assigned to Butler which went for big yardage. Likely, it was not just one incrementally not assigned to Butler and one incrementally assigned to him but more.

Plotting the number of Targets Sportradar and PFF credited each top CB you see an extremely strong relationship. In fact, the R^2 of .92 suggests that one can ‘explain’ 92% of the other. However, our observation about Butler suggests that the gap is actually larger than that as Targets can be misassigned in both directions.

Interestingly, if you generally compare the Sportradar tracked Targets versus PFF they tend to be high.  Note the below chart which shows, for every CB Targeted at least 32 times in 2020 their Sportradar Target figure minus their PFF Target figure.  

Any of the Blue bars represent Sportradar having more targets than PFF—as you move in the direction of the Blue arrow Sportradar reflects more and more until you get to Steve Nelson, Rasul Douglas, and Tre Flowers, each credited with 22 more targets by Sportradar as PFF.  

The Black bar on the chart has them showing the same number of targets and the two sources agree on just 7 of 113 qualifying CB’s. Finally, the Green bars represent PFF compiling more Targets than Sportradar, increasing in the direction of the green bar until you reach Mackenzie Alexander and Chandon Sullivan with 11 more targets by PFF than Sportradar.

There’s a clear bias for Sportradar to have more Targets than PFF. Of the 113 qualifying CB’s, 89 or 79% have more Targets credited by Sportradar and just 17 or 15% have more Targets by PFF. On average Sportradar documents 5.4 more Targets than PFF does, which raises an interesting question, where are all the other passes?  

Possibly when coverage is totally blown Sportradar credit the CB who blew it and PFF just classifies it as an open receiver or a blown coverage. What about double coverage, maybe one credits both players as in coverage and the other, likely PFF, requires that the assignment be credited to a single CB.  Perhaps things like screen passes or hot-routes to RB’s are treated as uncovered by one and covered by another. We just don't know for sure we just know there is a statistical difference.

So, if PFF and Sportsradar cannot agree on Targets, then certainly they cannot agree on other aspects of pass coverage. And in fact, Targets are where the two sources agree most with the highest R^2 of any other metrics tracked . . . the worst, believe it or not, is Touchdowns.  

The following are the charts for the other data points in the individual defensive passer rating formula—

Somehow Sportradar (SR) and PFF were so different in their views of coverage responsibility that the former accounted for Troy Hill giving up 4 TD passes in 2020 and the later just 1. Given how important TD’s are as part of passer rating this means Hill’s SR passer rating is 91.2 and PFF rating is 74.3.

Fortunately, at the level of the top performers, there is general agreement. Of the Top 10 CBs—ranked by Passer Rating against 5 occupy the exact same position in the rankings. Of Sportradar’s Top 10 ranked CB’s 8 are also Top 10 in PFF. 

What does this tell us?  It tells us that these stats are generally reliable and a reasonable indicator, but they are not perfectly accurate either. We should not be splitting hairs between a completion here and there or a couple point s on passer rating.  

But we can probably say that, for example, Marcus Peters with Ratings of 78.9 and 88.1 by SR and PFF was probably better in 2020 than Patrick Peterson at 98.2 and 100.8.  

It also reminds us that as much as we love to follow the numbers, they are just one piece of player evaluation, always trust the tape by watching it yourself—"The Eye in the Sky Does Not Lie".