Prediction for the Hall of Fame Class of 2016

LOOKING AHEAD
by John Turney

Tomorrow, the Hall of Fame Selection ommittee will have their annual meeting in the Super Bowl city, which is, of course Santa Clara.

There are 18 players who are up for being elected, 15 of them are "modern" players and coaches. There is also an "administration" selection and two "senior" players.

I have no special insight into what will happen tomorrow, I read what is posted by the voters and look at past trends. So, with that method, here is how I think it will go down.

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The most controversial vote will be for administrator/owner Edward Debartolo. The hype on him is he was major force in the 1980s 49ers dynasty and several teams followed in his footsteps on how to run an organization. The knock is he had some, let's call it shady dealings. My view is that won't be enough to keep him from getting 80% of the votes he  needs for election.

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The next group is the seniors: Ken Stabler and Dick Stanfel. Stabler's hype is he was a Super Bowl winning quarterback that had MVP-type seasons and was special in two-minute drills. The knock is some off-field things that were never proven, but also he had some sub par seasons. One former Raider executive told me, "He had some great seasons, but he had some bad ones, too".

Credit: Colorization by John Turney

Still, I think he and Stanfel get the required votes. So, there are three of the class of eight I am predicting.

Next comes the modern-day players and coaches. There are 15, and they will be cut to 10, then five. Then those five will stand for a yes or no vote and if all five get 80% they all will be inducted.

The first five to be eliminated, in my best guess, will be  Morten Andersen, Joe Jacoby, John Lynch, Terrell Davis and Edgerin James. All are worthy, but when you have to eliminate five, these will be first to go. Kickers have a tough time, but Andersen's "hype" is all good, good percentage, great range and deep kickoffs and a long career. I don't know of any "knock" on him.

Jacoby's hype is being, likely, the best blocker of the 1980s Redskins "Hogs". The knock is his career was on the short side for a modern-era player and had to move to right tackle to make room for a better tackle: Jim Lachey.

Lynch's hype is being a well-honored player in terms of Pro Bowls and a great hitter, a great leader and performed well in Dungy's Tampa-2 defense. The knock is he had relatively few interceptions for a strong safety that played back a lot in that 2-deep zone.

Terrell Davis's hype is his MVP season, over 2000 yards, and Super Bowl wins, and a Super Bowl MVP. The knock has always been the short career due to a severe knee injury. He has not yet been able to win over enough voters to get him the "Gale Sayers" exception to longevity.

James is a first-timer and he will have to wait. His hype is being a great all-around back, running, receiving and as good a pass blocker for a running back the NFL has seen. I know of no real knocks on him, other than he lacks MVP season or even Offensive Player of the Year seasons.

The next five who will get the ax are Steve Atwater, Don Coryell, Terrell Owens and Alan Faneca. Again, for these it will just be a matter of time.

I think Atwater leaps Lynch. His hype is the hit on Okoye and the point-blank interception of Jay Schroeder. He, like Lynch, was a big-time hitter and also didn't amass a lot of picks. These two are very close.

I think Don Coryell will get a bump to the top 10 this year, he's been in Final 15 a lot, but has not advanced very often, This is more of a guy feeling than anything. The hype is his creativity and influence on the NFL passing game, the knock is not being one of all-time greats as a head coach and often not advancing in playoffs and never got his team to the Super Bowl.

Alan Faneca is a first-timer, and has all the honors needed to be inducted. But the knock is he wasn't a Jim Parker, John Hannah, Larry Allen-dominant type of player.

Terrell Owens has all the numbers, his hype is well known. The knocks are well known too. But this year is not his "year". It's the Marvin Harrison "year".

Kurt Warner will also be cut, I think, in favor of Dungy. It's also a gut feeling of the HOF committee likely to induct only one quarterback this year. Warner's hype is well known, too. Two MVPs (he also won the NEA MVP in 2008 but didn't win the PFWA and AP that year), one Super Bowl win, two other appearances. The knock is the "donut hole" in his career, the long span between successes with some mediocre years.

So, the final five will be Tony Dungy, Brett Favre, Kevin Greene, Marvin Harrison, Orlando Pace and I believe all will get the required 80% and be inducted.

Dungy has all the credentials, was in the top 10 last year, I think he gets in. His hype is his creativity and advancement of the Tampa-2 defense and his high winning percentage as a coach. The knock is only that there are a few coaches out there with more Super Bowl wins.

Marvin Harrison's hype is all deserved, big-time numbers, honors, etc. The knock was the end of the logjam of wide receivers likely put Tim Brown in last year.

Orlando Pace's hype is his honors, Pro Bowls, etc., playing in the Greatest Show on Turf and remarkable physical skills. The knock is he did have a lot of false starts, but mainly that he held out a lot. It was enough to ding him one year, but he gets in this year.

Kevin Greene has been patient. His hype is the 160 sacks, most ever by a linebacker. The knock is that there  have been several great ones who have been inducted recently. 2016 is his year.

The hype on Favre is endless, toughness, numbers, MVPs, Super Bowls. The knock? Maybe a little off-field stuff, but Favre will be a first ballot HOFer.

Jacksonville Jaguars All Career-Year Team

OPINION
by John Turney

We are trying to pick the best individual seasons in the history of each franchise, which we will continue today with the Jacksonville Jaguars. By "Career-year" we mean the best performances at each position, with the following rule: Only one season per player per position. For example, here, we cannot pick Fred Taylor's best two seasons and use both running back slots.

Here are the selections, First-team left, Second-team right: 

The Jaguars were fairly easy to pick. For one, they have a short history, entering the NFL in 1995. Additionally, they have played a 4-3 defense for almost every season, so there are no fussy MLB/ILB picks or a nose tackle to choose, it was straightforward.

Fred Taylor

Blake Bortles's 2015 season was third as he set several franchise passing records, but the success of the Jaguars early gave Brunell the edge as did the success Garrard had in the wins versus losses column.

Jimmy Smith

The First-team selections were fairly easy as most of them were Pro Bowl or All-Pro seasons, and there are not that many in the Jaguars history. However, no guards have ever been picked for any post-season honors, not even as Pro Bowl alternates.

Tony Brackens gets two slots, one as a starter and another as a designated rusher. His rookie season was really something to watch. But, if one is a purist, Smeenge could move up and either Andre Branch (2013) or Ryan Davis (2014) would be next up. Jeremy Mincey's 2011 season is a definite honorable mention as is his 2012 season. He had more sacks in 2011 but was more consistent with the pressure in 2012.

Kevin Hardy's 1999 season may be the best season ever for any Jacksonville Jaguar, he was a consensus All-pro as an every-down linebacker who could also blitz. Tony Brackens's 1999 season would be close as well as Rasheen Mathis in 2008. We give Akin Ayodele, 2003, an honorable mention at outside linebacker for his fine season.

The kicker and punter were picked on the basis of being Pro Bowlers, even though the stats may suggest Scobee and Anger had better seasons. The kicking game has changed enough that the current players often to represent better but we consider the era and compare a player's season with those of his contemporaries.

Mark Brunell

Minnesota Vikings All Career-Year Team (or Why Vikings Fans Will Hate Us)

OPINION
By John Turney

Again, the drill here is to pick the best individual seasons in the history of each franchise, which we will continue today with the Minnesota Vikings. By "Career-year" we mean the best performances at each position, with the following rule: Only one season per player per position. For example, here, we cannot pick Alan Page's best two seasons and use both defensive tackle slots.

When you see the picks you may be able to see why Vikings fans may not like some of names on list, but I didn't miss kicks that would advance my team in playoffs and didn't sign Brett Favre in 2009 who had, perhaps, the best season of any Viking QB in history.

Matt Birk gets honorable mentions and you could pick any of his Pro Bowl seasons, but we went with Tingelhoff on the strength of his NFLPA Offensive Linemen of the Year Award, in addition to his All-Pro season of 1969. Loudermilk was All-Pro in 1988. Jeff Christy, 1998, also gets an honorable mention for his Pro Bowl season.

Mick Tingelhoff

Randall McDaniel? Pick any of maybe seven seasons. Hutch? Anyone of three. Ed White was respected by the NEA (Players) All-Pro Team and was First-Team in 1974.  Yary was many time All-Pro and in 1975 he won the third of his three NFC Offensive Lineman of the Year Awards by the NFLPA. Gary Zimmerman is the best left tackle in team history and 1987 and 1988 were his best seasons. We went with the 2006 Steve Hutchinson season due to him being voted the NFL Alumni Offensive Lineman of the Year but 2007 and other seasons would have worked, too.

Grady Alderman, 1969 (All-Pro), Tim Irwin (1988), and Matt Kalil, 2012 (Pro Bowl) all get an honorable mention at tackle.

Zimmerman

Ron Yary

Chuck Foreman had a pile of touchdowns in 1975, both rushing and receiving in 1975, Peterson, well, his 2,000-yard season was a no-brainer. I added one 1960s-style fullback and one 1990s-2010s type fullback. Vikings, in Jerry Burns's offense always threw to the backs, though it was never called the "Minnesota Offense" he did lots of things that Bill Walsh did, using backs, using space to stretch field and had great ideas on how to get key players into space, like Walsh is given so much credit for.

Michael Bennett, 2002, gets an honorable mention for his 1200-yard season and over 5.0 yards per carry. So does Bill Brown, 1964 when he had 16 TDs from scrimmage and Hugh McElhenny,  1961 (Pro Bowl on expansion team).

Moss had two dominant seasons, we went with 1998 with the higher yards per catch. Carter's season was the one where he caught the most touchdowns since that's all he did.

Leaving off Anthony Carter's 1987 season was tough, but given the passing game and rules in the 1970s we went with Gilliam. Carter gets honorable mention. Gene Washington, 1969, Sammy White, 1976, Jerry Reichow, 1961 also get a special mention.

Kyle Rudolph, 2012 (9 TDs) gets and honorable mention at tight end.

Anthony Carter

How deep does your defensive end legacy have to be to leave off Jim Marshall? Well, Marshall's Second-team All-Pro season of 1969 (14 sacks) ranks fifth. Being true to this exercise we went with Carl Eller's 1969 15-sack season tied for his career high and also had his career high in tackles for loss with ten. He had the most MVP votes of any defensive player that season by AP and UPI, and was the runner-up to Dick Butkus in the NEA NFL MVP vote. In addition, he was the NFLPA NFL Defensive Lineman of the Year for 1969.

Joey Browner

Doleman edges out Allen for second place. Doleman's 1989 season was DPOY-worthy as was Allen's, but Doleman seemed to be more dominant to us. Doug Martin's 11½ sack season in nine games and his Pro Football Weekly First-team All-NFL selection puts him at #4 above Marshall.

Jim Marshall

Jim Marshall is a Viking favorite; a Steve Sabol favorite, but he just didn't produce like other Viking defensive ends. He was never a First-team All-Pro and only went to three Pro Bowls in 20 years. His best season was 1969 when he had 14 sacks and was Second-team All-Pro, but it was far and away above his other seasons. 

Carl Eller

Again, how deep does you defensive tackle slot have to be to leave off Henry Thomas, who was maybe the most underrated defensive tackle of the 1990s and maybe all-time? In addition, how good are your tackles if John Randle cannot make the First-team?

Alan Page told PFJ, in an interview many years ago, that 1971 was likely not his best season. That he had seasons that were just as good, if not better. He mentioned 1970, 1974, and 1976. Well, 1976 was his career-high in sacks with 18. In 1971 he was the DPOY by AP when he had 42 hurries and nine sacks and was Hell on wheels. However, in 1970 he had 59 tackles (51 solo) with 10½ sacks and seven forced fumbles, 4 passes deflected, and 9 stuffs and was All-Pro. Looking, comparing, and then just making a call, we went with 1970. 

Keith Millard was the AP DPOY in 1989 and had 18 sacks and 11 stuffs and an interception. Randle, like Randall McDaniel, has so many good seasons you could pick several and not be wrong. We went with 1997, partly because it was his career-high in sacks, but it was his career-high in stuffs with eight. He also played a lot at RDE on running downs. 

It was hard to leave out Henry Thomas, but he gets an honorable mention for 1991 when he was a Pro Bowler, had 70 tackles, 10.5 stuffs and 8.0 sacks. Gary Larsen's 1969 Pro Bowl season when he had 8 sacks. Pat Williams was a Pro Bowler in 2007 and had 62 tackles with 12 of those for losses and we also give both an HM nod. Lance Johnstone is a strong HM at designated pass rusher for 2004, 31 tackles, 11 sacks, and 5 FF and his 2003 season was just as strong.

Keith Millard

There were some great linebacker names that got left out, Wally Hilgenberg, Fred McNeil among others, but as looking only at best seasons we had to go with who we thought were the best.

Matt Blair could have had 1978, 1979, and 1981, so we went with 1981 with his career-high 6 sacks, 12 passes defensed, over 150 tackles, and four blocked kicks. In 1980 he was All-pro but it was not one of his best seasons, but that season may not have had the best OLBer seasons, so he was top of a weaker group, in 1981 he just couldn't beat out rookies like Lawrence Taylor or Hugh Green, but 1981 he was simply great. We chose Blair's 1979 for special teams because it was his career-high in blocked kicks with five, but he had two other seasons with four blocked kicks/punts. He may be best-ever in that skill.

Ed McDaniel had 18.5 run/pass stuffs plus a career-high in sacks with 4.5 in 1995, and in our view it was one of the best unknown seasons for an OLBer in history. Mike Merriweather's 1989 was special as well, over 90 tackles lots of stuffs and six forced fumbles set it apart.

In 1998 Dwayne Rudd had 93 tackles and two 'scoop and scores' and two sacks. He leads a list of honorable mentions. Jesse Solomon, 1988, Wally Hilgenberg, 1973 (Second-team All-NFC), Carlos Jenkins, 1992 (2 defensive TDs), Fred McNeill, 1978 (6 FR and 2 INT) are also HMs. At MLB Jack Del Rio gets a nod for his 1992 season.

Krause's only consensus All-Pro season with the Vikings was 1975 when he had 1o interceptions. Browner's top strong safety season was 1990, but he had a couple others close, but overall, 1990 was the best. The corners were chosen in a combination of interceptions and All-Pro honors. Though good, they are not quite at the level of the safeties.

At CB our HMs are Ed Sharockman, 1964 (All-Conference) and Anthony Parker, 1994 (3 defensive TDs). The safety HMs are Robert Griffith, 2000, Karl Kassulke, 1970, Todd Scott, 1992, Pro Bowlers all.

We could have gone with Fred Cox's 1969 All-pro season, but Anderson and Walsh were also First-team All-Pros, but they also have a bittersweet taste in Viking fans' mouths for obvious reasons. But what must be remembered is they were a big part of the reason Vikings advanced as far as they did those seasons (though we went with 2012 for Walsh). They had great seasons and were (are) excellent kickers. Jan Stenerud's 1984 season was considered as well, give him and Cox honorable mention.

Berger and Kluwe take the top spot with a strong honorable mention for Bobby Walden's 1964 season when he had 41.6 net punting average. Greg Coleman led the NFC in net average (36.5) in 1983 and for that, he also gets an honorable mention.

Returners were given a lot of weight on how many TDs they scored, but in this case, they als0 had great yards per return statistics. From this, it looks like recent Vikings return game is in good hands and feet. 

The HM kick returners are Koren Robinson, 2005, and David Palmer,1998. Our PR HMs are Leo Lewis, 1987, and Mewelde Moore, 2006.

Browner and Blair are the special teamers, Blair for his amazing ability to block kicks. Honorable mention goes to Bill Brown in 1974 when he was still going downfield and covering kicks and busting wedges. Heath Farwell is an honorable mention for his 2009 season.

Okay, now for the quarterback. How can you argue against Favre's 2009? One game short of Super Bowl like Cunningham's 1998 and Culpepper's 2000? Favre had 33 TDs and only seven interceptions, the lowest interception percentage of any starting Viking in history. He also has some amazing games and throws that were for the storybooks. Favre's 107.2 passer rating was second-best in the Viking annals behind Duante Culpepper's 2004 season. Cullpepper, in 2000, threw for 33 touchdowns and ran for seven for a total of 40 touchdowns. How many QBs in NFL history have two 40-plus touchdown seasons? Culpepper has 2. 

We also considered Joe Kapp's 1969season. He only threw for 19 touchdowns, but the Vikings didn't throw much. Those 19 touchdowns accounted for 8% of his throws, the most in Viking history for qualifiers. He also got some MVP support.

Randall Cunningham got a lot of MVP/Offensive Player of the Year support in 1998 with his 34 touchdown passes and 106.0 passer rating. It was, though a disappointment in the NFC Championship game, a fantastic season. 

Also considered was Warren Moon's 1995 season with 33 touchdowns and 4,228 yards but the team record knocked that one out.

Finally, we looked at Fran Tarkenton's seasons, and there were several. We went with 1975 when he was a consensus MVP. True, the stats don't measure to the more recent players, but it was 1975 with different rules and 14 game seasons. He was a consensus MVP and All-Pro. We went with him. You think we'd go with Favre? No way.

In the end, it was (1) 1975 Tarkenton, (2) 1998 Cunningham (3) Favre, 2009, (4) 2000 Culpepper (5) Kapp, 1969, (6) Culpepper, 2004 and (7) 1995 Moon and numbers 3-7 all get an honorable mention.

Here is the final chart:

Tarkenton

 Agree or disagree? Tell us why in comments.

Post was edited on 6/1/2021