Predicting the 2019 AP All-Pro Team

By John Turney

One of our end-of-the-year rituals is trying to peg who the 50 Associated Press voters will choose for their All-Pro team. This isn't who we think should be on the team but who we think will be on it.

Here is our crack at reading the tea leaves this year:

Locks
We think these players will get 35-40 or more votes
WR—Michael Thomas
TE—George Kittle
LT—Ronnie Stanley
LG— Quenton Nelson
QB—Lamar Jackson
RB—Christian McCaffrey

DI—Aaron Donald
CB—Stephon Gilmore

CB—Tre'Davious White
S—Justin Simmons—We picked him last year and this. The rest of the media will discover him this year.
K—Justin Tucker—Josh Lambo had a slightly better year, but Tucker will take the vote. However, maybe he is one who will get less than forty votes.
P—Brett Kern—Another one who we think is a lock, but maybe short of 40 votes. Maybe we should put him in "probables".
KR—Cordarrelle Patterson—Could also fall below 40 votes.
ST—Matthew Slater

Probables
These players will get the slot but will have fewer than 35 votes
C—Rodney Hudson—He's been better in past years, but center is a position where you get some "rep" votes. He was very good, but there were better centers in our view. Jason Kelce will also gets some notes, but there are several players "coming on". So there will be some diversity in the voting.
RT—Ryan Ramczyk—La'el Collins could challenge as well as Mitchell Schwartz and

RG—Zach Martin-only reason he's not a lock is Brandon Brooks will get plenty of votes. We think Martin is in class by himself but the voting policy (to the extent voters follow it) is to vote for a left guard and a right guard and Brooks is a special player with special physical qualities.
Edge—Wide open, knowing the voters it will likely be TJ Watt over Chandler Jones and Shaq Barrett and Za'Darius Smith. The second slot is harder. Smith and Jones will fight over it and we think Barrett will be fourth in the voting. Cameron Jordan should get some votes, too, as well as Danielle Hunter. Those two 40 ends will make things interesting. All are worthy of All-Pro. We will see who gets it, but we think Watt will score one. After that, it's a maybe.
DI—Cameron Heyward will likely get this slot, but Grady Jarrett will make it interesting and others interior players will get some votes.
S—Jamal Adams. Lots of safeties will get votes (they always do) but we think Adams will take this slot over Budda Baker and Anthony Harris and others.
DB—Richard Sherman. This slot gets lots of candidates every year but our guess is Richard Sherman will take it.
PR—Deonte Harris is our guess, but voting will be varied some.

Maybes 
Impossible to tell
Flex—Could be anyone. McCaffrety will get some votes, Travis Kelce will, too. Derrick Henry and some other running backs. Cooper Kupp should get some as a slot. Too close to tell.
WR—The second slot here is wide open. Chris Godwin is likely the one but it could be Julio Jones as well.

LB—Also wide open. Eric Kendricks will get votes, usual suspects Luke Keuchly and Bobby Wagner will, too. LaVonte David will get some support. Darius Leonard, too. Damario Davis and also newcomers like Fred Warner and Tremaine Edmunds as well. Our best guess is standbys Keuchly and Wagner take the two slots, edging Kendricks, but we could be wrong here. It's a tight race.

So, this is all in fun, but there are always surprises and that enhances the fun.

Clarity is Momentum That Has No Resistance In It— 2019 Season, and Wild Card Weekend

By TJ Troup

The above quote sure fits for my closing statements of the season and year. Starting point this morning is a review of an aspect rarely visited—the predictions for the year. Though many publications, will scrutinize both Street & Smith's and Sports Illustrated.

In the July/August issue of SI Connor Orr made his predictions, and he actually hit the nail on the head on six teams benefit of the doubt on the Lions/Cardinals tie). His most impressive pick was easily Dallas going 8-8, and his biggest miss having the Ravens go 5-11.

Orr was way off on a few others, and since I am writing this and did so much better in my predictions, my grade for him (I did not do letter grades as a teacher until they went on the grade sheet) is 18.8% which simply means he needs to either stop making predictions, get some help from someone who actually knows the game, or find a new job.

 Next up the Street & Smith's; and a predicting disaster as they stated emphatically that the Bengals could actually compete for a wild card, and the Ravens would finish 4th in the AFC North. The long list of their failures would read like War & Peace if detailed. They did predict New Orleans, New England and Kansas City as division champions.

Finally former SI writer Andy Benoit in the Pro Football issue got five correct and his most impressive prediction is easily the 'Skins going 3-13. His poorest prediction was having the Chargers at 10-6. Andy no longer works at SI, but Connor does?

How many did Terence Jon Troup have right on the button; 17—and though you may challenge this, that would simply be folly. My most impressive prediction and all the folks that I correspond with will validate is that the 49ers would be the most improved team in the league—did not have them going 13-3 though, had them 9-7 with an outside chance of possibly 10 wins.

My worst prediction is a tie between the Rams & Packers as I was off by three on both. Nailed the entire AFC East on the head (thought it was easy). Did not see the Ravens and Lamar dominating, though after watching him many times here in Louisville; this young man is decisive & accurate (all of us Bill Walsh disciples see these two traits as the most important).

Today is the anniversary of the first AFL and NFL title games that would decide the first two participants in the Super Bowl. My book This Day in Football details both games on page 169 and 170.

The Packers had a strong season as they won the NFC North and defeated all of their division rivals twice. Green Bay since 2002 has a division record of 74-34—wow! WOW! The only other time they went 6-0 in this time period was 2011; and all Packer fans do not want to get beat in the divisional round (they lost to NYG).

Chris Willis and John Turney did a stalwart job of picking the All-Rookie and All-Pro teams, and sure like many of their choices. With all the awards given this year, really believe Tannehill deserves some kind of an award for his performance this year? The Phoenix award as he rose from the ashes, or the "Iron sharpens Iron" award for coming off the scrap heap.

This weekend brings us the Wild Card games, and one of the best stats ever researched. Ok, what stat is that TJ? 50 years and every year since 1970 there has been at least one road winner in the play-offs! You will not hear this on the flawed NFL Network, or CBS, NBC or Fox; since those people believe research is making a fresh pot of coffee.

Was very surprised that the 49ers could go to Minnesota and defeat the Vikings in the cold, yet the road victory that still stays with me (have the game film) was Dallas defeating San Francisco in the last game ever at Kezar.

The visual of Duane Thomas running sweeps over and over again away from Dave Wilcox and attacking Jim Sniadecki will remain with me forever. Every year since at least one road winner; so who is that road winner this year? Would enjoy hearing from you folks who enjoy the Journal. Expect plenty from me in 2020 as my agent has convinced me to take on a statistical research project on the decade of the 1940's.

Plan on doing a story on the most resilient man in the history of pro football (late February for that saga), and in April detailing my favorite champion team of all-time. Hope all of you continue to read us here at the Journal, and HAPPY NEW YEAR.

Sacks, Hits, Knockdowns, Hurries, and Total Pressures—Who is Right?

PERSPECTIVE
By John Turney

"There's battle lines being drawn

Nobody's right if everybody's wrong"

                —Buffalo Springfield

Za'Darius Smith

As we've posted about before there is always confusion when it comes to pressure stats, especially recently. There are analytic website competitors all doing their own thing.

Let's look at Za'Darius Smith who is having a tremendous year. We didn't pick him All-Pro because three other rushbackers (edge rushers) of whatever one wants to call them also had great years. We went with Chandler Jones based on a few factors among them game-changers (forced fumbles) and what he did was with less help than Shaq Barrett, TJ Watt, and Smith. However, no choice of any of those four can be 'wrong'.

Some have picked Smith, and that is fine. Among the rationale is that according to some sources his total pressures or disruptions were top in the NFL. And that's fine, too.

But back to pressure stats, here are some examples of the prose and stats from various sources—worthy work by all.

But, did you notice anything? We did, as we always do and have for a long, long time. It's that the hurries and pressures and disruptions are quite varied. All subjective stats are to one degree or another.

So, in terms of our "snubbing" Watt or Smith, maybe, but we DID look at pressure stats, but also we didn't discount sacks and what happens on a sack, the ball can be pulled loose, the clock keeps running, very important near the end of a game, there is loss of yardage.

So, pressures are important. Super important. In 1993 we interview Deacon Jones who said, "I'd rather have 40 pressures and no sacks than 2 sacks and no other pressures. If I am in your ass 40 times, you ain't going to win." And he was right. We've known that even before that interview, but we also don't want to get unbalanced the other way especially with the "accounting methods" that are clearly different from organization to organization.

We think Deacon, of course, was right. We've researched this subject since the 1970s and 80.s The Rams were among the first team to track hurries. The Bears also did some years. The Colts were the first team we saw keep track of them in the late-1950s in the Weeb Ewbank era. So, we are very familiar with this subject. All these other groups are, frankly, Johnny-come-latelys.

So, on with the countdown.

NFLGSIS tracks QB hits and it included sacks—unless you forced a fumble. Then, it's not a "QB hit" and technically that is accurate. However, what is the point of a pass rush? Isn't a forced fumble the ultimate? No, you didn't "hit" the QB but you gave your team a chance at a turnover. It needs to be considered or at least explained.

The same is true for tackles for loss, but that is a story for another day.

Pro Football Focus' total pressures are always higher than everyone else. We don't know how they count them but from Smith to Chris Long to Aaron Donald to JJ Watt they are always an outlier—to the point of being inflated but we cannot say for sure because no one knows what their criteria us for a hurry. They could be the best source.

Football Outsiders' totals are always seam reasonable and match somewhat with my own work, but they don't come out until they release their almanac every Summer.

Next Gen Stats say they use chips and monitors to track the stat. Per the Next Gen Stats glossary, disruptions are the combined total of hurries, pressures or sacks  Pressures register when the defender gets within 2 yards of the quarterback at pass forward or sack. Hurries register when the defender gets within 1.5 yards of the quarterback at any moment between snap and pass forward or sack. So a hurry and pressure can happen on the same play but "a player can only be credited with 1 hurry (or pressure/sack) per play" according to Next Gen Stats.

We believe them, their numbers seem reasonable, but where can you get them? You can only pick up snippets here and there.

ESPN Sports and Information is also a subscription service but one can find stats in ESPN posts. We have partial information for Smith—61 "total pressures".

Sportsradar's data is found at Pro Football Reference. Their numbers seem to be more in line with Football Outsiders—they are not inflated and they are accessible without a subscription.

Then there is Stats, LLC, who has a ton of stuff behind a hugely expensive paywall. Some of it is available at some free sites, so you can get hurries from them.

Some teams keep this data and put it in their weekly Game Releases. The Packers used to, but now they don't or we'd have an eighth source for 'pressure' stats.

So, who is right? No one. Who is wrong? No one. It's judgment calls on hits, hurries, pressures, and disruptions.

2019—A Nice Year for 'Slash' Players

LOOKING BACK
By John Turney

2019 gave us a lot of entertainment and part of that was the emergence of a handful of 'slash' players that played more than one position.

Taysom Hill was the leading 'slasher'. he played quarterback, receiver, runner, tight end. He had great speed and quickness.

Also entertaining is Patrick Ricard, Baltimore's resident fullback/defensive lineman. The Patriots, who have a history of these guys (Troy Brown WR-DB, Mike Vrabel, LB-TE, Julian Edelman, WR-DB, Rob Gronkowski, TE-S), had linebacker/fullback Elandon Roberts this year and who may have the quote of the year when talking about his football mindset “I run through a motherfuckers' face. Offense, defense, special teams, whatever you want,” Roberts explained. “I think that’s why Bill likes me.”

George Fant is a tackle, but plays more as a tight end in their heavy personnel.

Back in the day players like there were abundant. Then the era of specialization crept in and there were few. On occasion one would slip in—WR-DB James Owens and then WR-DB Roy Green. Kordell Stewart may have been the best, he was a QB-WR. Dan Klecko, like Ricard, was a FB-DL.

The Titans Adoree Jackson is part of this tradition as is JJ Watt DL-TE, Devin Hester WR-DB, Dontari Poe, DL-FB, Randy Moss, WR-DS.

The Rams Mike Furrey actually converted to FS for a year before moving back to his usual Wr position. Patrick Peterson and Deion Sanders were star corners and played wide receiver as well.

There are others, but it seemed to us that the four we mentioned had pretty ig impacts on their teams and it was more than a novelty with them, it was part of what they did on offense and defense, i.e. part of the scheme. And that is entertaining in the NFL which can become dry sometimes.

Season Ending Random Thoughts

By Nick Webster

Jamies’ Incredible Double

With the last throw of his season (career?) for Tampa on Sunday Jamies Winston simultaneously accomplished two related amazing feats. Much has been made of Winston nearing the 30-30 club, the first QB to throw 30 TD’s and 30 Interceptions in the same season a feat he accomplished but not without tacking on 5 extra minutes after the season was supposed to end!

The same play was returned by the opposing Falcons for a Touchdown meaning that in what soccer fans might think of as Stoppage Time Winston set the NFL record for the most ‘Pick-sixes’ in a season in NFL History.

Winston broke his tie with future HOFer Peyton Manning and long-forgotten Rudy Bukich who had each thrown 6 pick-sixes in 2001 and 1966, respectively.  With his 7th pick-six, Winston now stands alone atop a leaderboard he’d probably rather avoid.

We initially thought Winston might have a third accolade as he leads the league in interceptions by a historically wide margin of 9, however, the INT margin-of-victory throne still belongs to Brett Favre who threw 29 in 2005, 12 more than his runner up. It took Brett another two years to get run out of Green Bay, how much longer does Jamies have in Tampa?

Sherman’s Comeback Complete

Richard Sherman had an excellent game Sunday night supporting his 49ers path to their best season in years largely on the back of a rebuilt defense. Sherman was excellent all season and lead the NFC in Passer Rating allowed by a cornerback for the 3rd time—having previously accomplished the feat in 2012 and 2013.

This season, apparently fully recovered from his ACL after a year getting his feet back under him Sherman allowed a rating of just 46.8 according to PFF. Now different sources track passer rating against and the results are not consistent, but Sportradar which tracks for PFR’s advanced metrics also has Sherman leading the NFC, albeit with a less impressive rating.

Passer rating against can be tracked using various sources back to 1995 and in those 25 seasons only two other players have led their conference in defensive passer rating allowed three times; Deion Sanders and Darrelle Revis, good company Richard!

Congrats to Shaq Barrett, No thanks to the scorekeeper

With three sacks yesterday Shaq Barrett passed Chandler Jones to claim the sack title with 19.5 versus Chandler’s 19.0. We still think Chandler was the better all-around player but sack titles (now given the Deacon Jones Award) are a nice thing to have on your mantle.

Shaq owes his title to a creative scheme designed to free him up, a resurgent season where he came back in great shape seemingly with a desire to show the Broncos what they’d lost, and to a scorekeeping change after the Bucs Week 14 game versus the Colts.

As the game was played and with the initial publishing of the gamebook Barrett shared an 8-yard sack with defensive end William Gholston. However, as happens every week, games are reviewed and the league and Elias updates its official tallies; and in mid-week, the half-sack for each Barrett and Gholston was revised to a full sack for Barrett with Gholston losing all credit.

Barrett it seems may owe his accolades to more than just scheme and fitness. Frequently the impetus for these changes comes from the team itself; if a team believes a play was miscredited it will often ask for a review, so we may never know who truly deserves the credit.

Either way, a great breakout season for Shaq Barrett and a deserving runner up for Chandler Jones.

In an associated story, it was accurately reported that a week 16 stat change pushed Markus Golden of the Giants over the 10-sack mark earning him a performance bonus. Left out of this story was the fact that the half-sack he gained with the week 16 adjustment was taken away with an earlier full sack that he had ‘adjusted-down’ to a half-sack at Detroit where Dexter Lawrence was credited with half a sack.

Comeback Pack Sweeps Lions

By Eric Goska

Allen Lazard scored on a 28-yard, fourth-quarter TD pass in Detroit.
(screenshot from NFL Game Pass)

Down but not out might best sum up the Packers’ play against the Lions in 2019.

For a second time this season, Green Bay fell behind Detroit. For a second time this season, the Green and Gold prevailed.

Sunday at Ford Field, the Packers battled back from 14 down to defeat the Lions 23-20. In October, they rallied from 13 back to knock off the Michiganders 23-22 at Lambeau Field.

Mason Crosby capped both comebacks with walk-off field goals. He hit a 23-yarder as time expired in the first, and he booted a 33-yarder on the final play in the second.

Downing a team twice in one season is tough enough. Doing so when forced to overcome double-digit deficits in both games is almost unheard of, at least in Packerland.

The Packers have tripped up 25 different teams twice in one season. The Milwaukee Badgers were the first as Green Bay bounced them 12-0 and 10-7 in 1923.

Since, the Green and Gold has double dipped another 140 times including Sunday. They’ve notched two-fers most often against the Bears (30) and Lions (30).

Only once previously had the team overcome double-digit deficits in two separate games to sweep an opponent. In 1942, Green Bay twice rose up from 10 short to dispatch the Chicago Cardinals 17-13 and 55-24.

Yes, the Packers have swept the Lions before after having trailed in both games. Just not by 10 or more points in both outings.

In 1939, Detroit led by seven in the first meeting and four in the rematch before falling 26-7 and 12-7. In 2012, the Lions jumped in front by six and 14, but Green Bay roared back to win 24-20 and 27-20.

This year, the Packers not only faced a pair of double-digit deficits, they also were behind heading into the fourth quarters of both games. It’s the first time in team history they’ve swept an opponent under those circumstances.

In October, they trailed 19-13 after three quarters. Sunday, they were on the wrong end of a 17-10 count.

In both games, the fourth quarter belonged to Green Bay. So effective was the team that it established new highs for the rivalry.

Sunday, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers’ offense amassed 143 yards in the final 15 minutes. Add to that the 195 it piled up in October and the 338 combined fourth-quarter yards is an all-time best for the team against the Lions in one season. It broke by eight the previous high (330) set in 2015.

Green Bay ran 55 plays. That was three more than the record of 52 set in 1951.

Meanwhile, the Lions generated all of 60 yards. The difference between the teams’ outputs (278) is the most by which the Green Bay has outgained Detroit. The previous high had been 235 set in 1937.

Green Bay’s two fourth quarters also shared some similarities. Rodgers threw an interception and passed for more than 100 yards (147 and 109) in both.

Allen Lazard made an all-important touchdown catch each time out. He snagged a 35-yarder at Lambeau Field and snared a 28-yarder at Ford Field.

The Packers started their game-winning drives from roughly the same spot – their own 18- and 17-yard lines. Green Bay was awarded a first down by penalty on each of those advances: defensive end Trey Flowers was flagged for illegal use of hands in October and safety Tavon Wilson was called for unnecessary roughness Sunday.

Taken all together, the comeback Pack outscored the Lions by the slimmest of margins in 2019. The 4-point difference was the smallest in sweeping an opponent, breaking the previous low of six in 2004 when the club edged the Vikings by identical scores of 34-31.

Extra Point

In 1962, the Packers set a team record by defeating five different opponents twice: the Vikings, Bears, 49ers, Colts and Rams.

Sweeping Away Deficits

Most points overcome to defeat an opponent twice in the same season.

Points (G1, G2)    Year    Opponent        Final Scores

27 (13, 14)             2019    Lions                23-22 & 23-20

20 (10, 10)             1942    Cardinals          17-13 & 55-24

20 (6, 14)               1959    49ers                21-20 & 36-14

20 (6, 14)               2012    Lions                24-20 & 27-20

19 (6, 13)               1954    Colts                7-6 & 24-13

17 (6, 11)               1962    49ers                31-13 & 31-21

17 (17, 0)               1972    Lions                24-23 & 33-7

17 (3, 14)               1985    Lions                43-10 & 26-23

2019 PFJ All-Rookie Team

Once again the PFJ All-Rookie team was chosen by Chris Willis, a producer at NFL Films, author, and member of the NFL and HOF Blue Ribbon Committees.

His choice for Offensive Rookie of the Year is Josh Jacobs, RB, Raiders

Credit: NFL Network

The Defensive Rookie of the Year is Nick Bosa, DE-EDGE, 49ers.

Credit: NBC

Here are his picks for All-Rookie—