Tuesday, September 11, 2018

TUESDAY TIDBITS: A Review of Week One

By TJ Troup
As always, a fascinating opening week in the NFL, and with 16 games there should be some compelling drama/interesting games. Have not done this in the past, so for this year on Tuesday will review some historical/statistical aspect of the weekend. My research almost always deals in winning and losing. When a team returns an interception for a touchdown they win about 79% of the time. When a team has a 100-yard rusher and the opponent does not the team with the 100-yard rusher wins 77% of the time. This covers data from 1934 to the present, and was sent to the distinguished Mr. Steve Sabol years ago.
So what happens when a team has both? A 100 yard rusher, and an interception returned for a score; what is the win%? Steve Sabol and I sure enjoyed have titles put on the work done, and my respect for former great football writers gave me the title of APOCALYPTIC HORSEMEN—for the above achievement. Last night both the Rams and Jets had a 100 yard rusher and an interception return for a score, and they both won. Historically the win percentage is 91%, and usually does not happen often during a season (usually less than 10 times). See ya next week.


  1. TJ,

    I was thinking of your return stat info when watching those returns on Monday night.

    Here are some of my Week 1 thoughts-

    I am not sure if any ESPN or NFL Network shows made mention of it but Josh Allen ran out of bounds while the Bills were getting slapped around by the Ravens. Allen was pushed as he went out and made contact with Matthew Judon's shoulder (Judon was not in the game on that play). I could not tell live or on replay if Judon then purposefully tackled him or not, but they both ended up on the ground. The announcer suggested a flag could have been thrown. A few plays later, Judon was in the game and elbowed Allen while he was already on the ground. That drew a flag. I suppose Judon had an issue with Allen's tweets from yesteryear.

    I predicted the Bengals to win the AFC North. So far, so good, end of season so far away. You could probably comfortably bet I'll be wrong. The Steelers obviously have the better pedigree. I just don't like the Steelers this season as much as most people do.

    I put on the Texans at the Pates for the first time midway through the 4th quarter. I saw that Houston was losing 13-27 and punting at midfield. I changed the channel before the punt landed. No need to look at that game again. The midfield punt halfway through the 4th quarter trailing New England by two scores is the raising of a white flag. Coaching like that will not lead to a bust in Canton.

    Pat Mahomes' arm strength is ridiculous. The only question was could he play in a structured offense. I thought he might be a 3-year project. He played a sandlot style of football at Texas Tech in what was already a quarterback-friendly system. His style of play in that system didn't even seem disciplined. He would throw into triple coverage with his feet not properly set. There were even no look passes 20 yards down the field. I liked it even if I didn't think it was actually all great. The Chiefs drafting him to sit for a season was the best thing for him. I know once Andy Reid traded Alex Smith, Mahomes was deemed ready.

    When asked to identify any surprise teams I only had two in mind- the Bears and Jets. That is if one doesn't consider the Chiefs competing for the AFC crown and the Bengals winning the North to be surprises. I have the Bears at 7-9 on a bad year and 9-7 if stuff breaks good. One of the breaking good things would have been winning in Week 1. The Bears really fixed their roster in the offseason and getting a new coaching staff was obviously huge. Their schedule may allow them to get to 5-3. They would then have some momentum going into the tougher part of their schedule. Mitchell Trubisky played better than his 2017 stats might suggest and he will get better. He may never become an upper echelon quarterback, but I don't see Trubisky as being a flop.

    The Jets---
    Week 1, 1997.
    Week 1, 2018.

    Entering both games the vast majority of people thought the Jets were garbage, the equivalent of a wet convenience store bag containing a banana peel and napkins and a spork next to a dead squirrel on the side of the road on the New Jersey Turnpike. Well, the Jets performance in each game announced, "Umm, stuff, like, changed and stuff."

  2. Nice job, Coach! Always count on you for the obscure, esoteric and fascinating ...

  3. Tuesday Tidbits is a great idea, Coach! Looking forward to seeing what you come up with every week.