DO YOUR JOB: Eagles vs. Patriots Super Bowl

PREDICTION
By T.J. Troup

The final game of the season, and just finished watching the only pre-game show that is worth a damn—in fact NFL MATCH-UP is always worth watching. Greg Cosell & Louis Riddick not only study and understand the game, they explain what they see so very well.

For today the show began with "red zone" offense and defense. Brady's ability to put points on the board when the Patriots get to the red zone has been well documented. How does he do it? His ability to read coverage and throw accurately into the "tight windows" is why he is an all-time elite QB.

The key man is going to be Malcolm Jenkins of the Eagles; can he cover Gronkowski by himself, or will he need help? Terrific Tom has no problem making the quick adjustment and throwing to another receiver.

The best example you ask? Amendola on the back line of the end zone against J-Ville. Philadelphia relishes the run-pass option and by using motion can give Foles the read if the Patriots are in man or zone.

The other tight end—in this case, Zach E. of Philly is going to be a key ingredient if the Eagles are to score in the red zone. As this season progressed Matt Patricia's Patriot defense improved dramatically against the pass (they were very porous beginning of the year). The disguised coverage by New England forced opposing quarterbacks to hold the ball longer, and the Patriot pass rush became an important factor.

Nick F. must read quickly to ensure success and keep the chains moving; and as such can keep pace with Brady. Louis Riddick detailed the New England kickoff return and did a superb job detailing the open field blocks by the Patriots for Dion Lewis.

Greg Cosell explained that this Patriot defense is not as fast in pursuit as past champion New England teams. Thus, look for the Eagles to try and run the perimeter. For me, the key man in this game is right guard for Philadelphia #79 Brooks. He is such a strong quick run blocker he can make the "reach block" on the defensive tackle in the gap, and allow the center Kelce to pull and lead. All teams would relish doing this, but most teams do not have a guard as adept as #79.

Will Bill B. have his defense adjust? Yes! Last year his half-time run defense adjustment gave the Patriots a slim chance to come back when down 25 points, and we all saw that was accomplished. In summation, there is going to be a few bucks wagered today, and as a man who made successful bets years ago—take a long hard look at the over/under.

The last 14 games the Patriots have played; 4 overs & 10 unders. The last 9 games for the Eagles 3 overs and 6 unders and as of right now the over/under is 49. Scores like 24-20 and 26-21 are a very real possibility—thus play the UNDER and enjoy the game.

Class of 2018 is Eight Players/Contributors

NEWS
By John Turney

The Pro Football Hall of Fame Class of 2018 is Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, Ray Lewis, Brian Urlacher, Brian Dawkins, Robert Brazile, Jerry Kramer, Bobby Beathard.

According to press accounts:
The cut from 15 to 10 that were eliminated: John Lynch, Everson Walls, Joe Jacoby, Isaac Bruce and Edgerrin James.

In the cut from 10 to 5 eliminated were: Ty Law, Kevin Mawae, Tony Boselli, Alan Faneca and Steve Hutchinson.

My predictions were off, we had Alan Faneca and Joe Jacoby instead of Brian Urlacher and Randy Moss. So we got six of eight.

It was a surprise that no linemen were voted in, at least one you would have expected. But from the list of cutdowns, four of the five linemen made the cut from 15 to 10. And apparently, there was a circular firing squad by the voters that eliminated all four from making the top five.

Of course, we could be wrong, but it was likely a pissing match of "my guy is better than your guy" and votes got split. All four were worthy of induction, and you'd think some would have thought of that but recently I posted on Twitter about too much parochialism on the committee. Not everyone, but enough to cause logjams too often. (CFL cities used to protect the innocent). Sometimes the voter for Calgary has too much contact with the ownership and management of Calgary to be independent and he essentially does the bidding of that franchise. Or Montreal hasn't had a player in for a while so there is a push to get one in. Or Vancouver (do they have a team?) has problems with Toronto player who some of his Vancouver boys don't like. And all that goes into the mix.

Fortunately, that does not happen all the time and does not happen like it did in the bad old days of the late-1980s and 1990s when I first began to observe the process.

However, small things can happen that lower the bar ever so slightly. Last year, for example, Jason Taylor got in on the first ballot. He was a worthy Hall of Famer but was he in the echelon of being with the best of the best at his position? Gino, Deacon, Reggie, and Bruce. And Jason? Those are the five defensive ends who have been first-ballot. Like the old Sesame Street song "One of these things is not like the others, one of these things just doesn't belong".

For first-balloter middle linebackers, the average number of All-Pros was 6-times. Ray Lewis exceeded that mark. Urlacher fell short. But for now and forever Urlacher and Lewis are on the same level, the same plane as Nitschke and Butkus and Lambert and Singeltary. Lewis fits with that group. Urlacher does not.

For two years Terrell Owens was "snubbed" mostly because of how he split locker rooms and how he hurt his teams but also because he dropped a lot of passes. We felt that he should get in this year and that Moss should wait. After all, Moss quit in his team in his last year in Minnesota and then in Oakland and after he was traded from New England he didn't do much of anything.

We felt he was the most talented wide receiver ever but that he lacked the intangibles of work ethic, effort, leadership when things are going bad like a Jerry Rice had or a Lance Alworth had. Guys who played when the games were played and not when they "wanted to play". But with his induction, the bar is lowered on that front.

Look, we get it. We will be attacked by those who saw all the highlights and saw the incredible plays Moss made—and there were many. But few will have the courage to look closer and try and understand the place history plays in the Hall of Fame and why Moss for all his greatness didn't meet the mark of a true first-ballot Hall of Famer. Moss was a tremendous deep receiver. he had amazing speed and leaping ability—when he used it. And even he admits he didn't use it 100% of the time.

But now, Moss will always be able to back up his claim of  "I'm the best wide receiver in NFL history" NFL.com, Jan.  29, 2013 and "I call myself the greatest" Minneapolis Star Tribune, Feb 2, 2018. Because he's first-ballot he has some firepower to his argument. It would all be fine if he'd been All-Pro more than four times and a Pro Bowl more than six times and if he had gotten closer to Jerry Rice in accomplishments, personal and team, but in real, honest, unbiased truth, he didn't.

So, what used to be a once-in-a-while anomaly of guys getting in on the first try that were slightly questionable (Jackie Slater—3-time All-Pro, none consensus, 7 Pro Bowls in 20 years, sat bench for the 3 years, injured last 3) is now a pattern of 3- and 4-time All-Pros (Taylor, Urlacher and Moss) getting in right away. If 3-time and 4-times All-Pro were the standards it would be fine, but it's not.

And yes, we are aware that All-Pros and Pro Bowls are only part of the Hall of Fame equation. There are statistics, anecdotes, and yes, the intangibles (which is exactly our point, vis-a-viz Moss), the "hardware", rings, etc, i.e. lots of things. But All-Pros shouldn't be ignored or undervalued either when legacies are at stake.

We mentioned parochialism. What we think is that the question voters and fans and teams need to ask is not whether their guy should get in the Hall of Fame because it would be good for the fans or the team or a feather in the voter's cap for getting "his guy" in.

The question is this:  Does the Hall of Fame lack because "the guy" is not in. And that includes the caveat of being first-ballot in certain, warranted instances.

Sure, some voters want to dismiss first ballot significance and I don't blame them. When the bar is lowered it means less. For us, it's nearly over. But for years there was something extra to some players and that extra was rewarded by being in the Hall of Fame right away.

Yes, there were screw ups, there was the anti-Super Bowl ring parochialism that kept Alan Page out of the Hall of Fame for a year. And there have been others.

So, pardon the rant, but when no linemen get in when there are 5 qualified linemen it is upsetting because there is no Shannon Sharpe to shout from the hilltops about them. Skip Bayless likely couldn't care less that the blood and guts of a football team are underrepresented in a Hall of Fame class (and don't get us started about cornerbacks).

No, the lineman will suffer in silence, suck it up until next year and not go on radio, television and Internet to whine and complain and call themselves "the best ever". That's what divas do.

Hall of Fame Class of 2018 Predictions

UPDATE: The Class of 2018 is Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, Ray Lewis, Brian Urlacher, Brian Dawkins, Robert Brazile, Jerry Kramer, Bobby Beathard.

We missed on two of the 8 selections. We had Alan Faneca and Joe Jacoby rather than Brian Urlacher and Randy Moss.

The HOF Selection Committee gave the middle finger to offensive linemen this year.

LOOKING AHEAD
By John Turney

Tomorrow the Pro Football Hall of Fame Selection Committee will meet to select the Class of 2018 for the Pro Football Hall of Fame. There is a contributor, two seniors, and 15 modern-era players who will be debated.

Here are our predictions.

Contributor—  Bobby Beathard
The Hype—In eleven seasons as Washington's General Manager(1978-88), they made five playoff appearances and captured two of Super Bowl titles in 1982 and 1987 and many of his decisions impacted the 1991 championship.
He also helped build the Chargers of the early 1990s that went to the Super Bowl after the 1994 season.
The Knock—Can not really think of anything
The Prediction—He will be voted in tomorrow.

Senior Candidates—Jerry Kramer, Robert Brazile
The Hype—Kramer has been deserving for a long time, has been truly snubbed, especially in 1997 when he was a senior candidate and was voted down because a few voters brought out views that perhaps Fuzzy Thurston was the better guard of the two. That won't happen this time.
Brazile was a seven-time Pro Bowler and five-time First-team All-pro. In the late 1970s he was considered a dominant player and in retrospect was a forerunner to the Lawrence Taylor-type weak side rush backer.
The Knock—For Kramer, it would be for an All-time great he was not a Pro Bowler (five) all that often. But that won't keep him out.

For Brazile the knock is his productivity dropped in the early 1980s, he didn't play with the same fire according to observers, including Paul "Dr. Z" Zimmerman. Additionally, even in the late 1970s the Oiler defenses, while good, was not great. So some may ask why a third Oilers (Elvin Bethea and Curley Culp) would be in the Hall of Fame when, for example, the Orange Crush (which was a far better defense for longer) has none. 
The Prediction—Both will be voted in tomorrow.

Alan Faneca
The Hype—Faneca was a six-time First-team All-Pro and a nine-time Pro Bowler and has a ring. He was a First-team All-Decade selection and was an NFL Alumni NFL Offensive Lineman of the Year twice.
The Knock—None really, seems like a matter of time before he gets in the HOF.
The Prediction—Will be inducted. He has waited longer than Hutchinson and that is the only difference.

Steve Hutchinson
The Hype—Like Faneca a six-time First-team All-Pro and a seven-time Pro Bowler. Also a First-team All-Decade selection and a two-time NFL Alumni NFL Offensive Lineman of the Year. He was never on a Super Bowl-winning team, however.
The Knock—None really, other than he may fall just short of being considered a first-ballot Hall of Famer. Those have been reserved for the John Hannahs and Larry Allens of the NFL. Is Hutch one of those?
The Prediction—Will have to wait for induction

Kevin Mawae
The Hype—A Seven-time All-Pro (four consensus), eight Pro Bowls, and an All-Decade choice.
The Knock—None. There is no super "hype" nor any "knock"
The Prediction—Will have to wait for induction. Just too crowded a field for "vanilla"

Joe Jacoby

The Hype—He was considered the best of "The Hogs" by Joe Gibbs and was a key to their success running the ball in the 1980s and early 1990s. He was a three-time All-Pro and four-time Pro Bowler in his career. He was a Second-team All-Decade selection for the 1980s.

The Knock—One knock I have read, which is totally false, is that when Washington traded for Jim Lachey they moved Jacoby to right tackle because he was the inferior player. According to Gibbs it was because Lachey, a great player in his own right, could not adjust to right tackle, so since Jacoby was more versatile and could excel at right tackle he was moved. Joe Gibbs is willing to tell any Hall of Famer the facts on this one. 

The Prediction—Will be inducted. It is his last chance before being sent to the "swamp" the not-so-affectionate name for the senior pool which is where players go if they don't get induction in the first 25 years from their retirement. Because of the fact that he is qualified the sentiment will be not to banish him into that pool where only one or two players a year get a second chance at induction.

Tony Boselli

The Hype—Boselli was a three-time All-Pro and five-time Pro Bowler in seven years. He was a Second-team All-Decade selection for the 1990s and twice won NFL/AFC Lineman of the Year awards from the NFL Alumni/NFLPA. 

The Knock—The question is he worthy of the Gale Sayers/Dwight Stephenson/Terrell Davis/Ken Easley exception to the longevity rule. That is to say, did he do enough in his career, which ended early because of injury, to warrant the Hall of Fame. Sayers and Stephenson were five-time All-Pros. Boselli is more like Davis, who was a controversial pick.

Also, Boselli has years left in the modern era queue before being put into the senior pool, which would happen to Joe Jacoby if he's passed over. A key factor is that no honest broker can say Boselli was better than Jacoby and by the same token no one can say Jacoby was better than Boselli. So, if that is the case then why send Jacoby to the senior pool just to put in the first Jacksonville Jaguar? Boselli can get in next year or even the year after, Jacoby's chances go down dramatically if he is sent to the senior pool. Of course, we could be wrong, Boselli could go in, but we predict the committee will choose Jacoby.

The Prediction—Will have to wait for induction.

Ray Lewis

The Hype—Too much to write. Has a near-ideal first-ballot Hall of Fame resume

The Knock—Off-the-field altercation is the only thing that is not to be considered as per Hall of Fame bylaws.

The Prediction—Will be inducted.

Brian Urlacher

The Hype—Lots of good stuff, plenty of All-Pros and Pro Bowls, an NFL Defensive Player of the Year, and two NFC Defensive Player of the Year Awards.

The Knock—He's not Ray Lewis. And Hall of Fame voters often vote like ordering from a Chinese menu, one for column A, one from column B., etc. And they are not likely to choose two from the MB column in the same year.

The Prediction—Will have to wait for induction.

Everson Walls

The Hype—Had 57 interceptions, in the top 5 of cornerbacks All-time. 

The Knock—The Cowboys pass defenses were usually in the bottom 1/3 of the NFL while he was there, with just three exceptions, six times in nine years they were 20th or lower, usually much lower. Also, there were some dynamic cornerbacks in that era that have not gotten looks like Louis Wright, Albert Lewis, and others. Walls, if one reads the literature of the day was never considered what is now called a "shutdown corner". He was known as a ballhawk.

In fact, many voters would be too young to have seen games that John Madden did in the 1980s. He always seemed to make it a point to explain the reason Walls got some of his interceptions was that he played the same side of the defense as Ed "Too Tall" Jones. Madden would tell viewers that Jones's height and rush changed the trajectory that quarterbacks would release the ball and that would allow Walls the ability to make a play on the ball he otherwise wouldn't if there were a normal left defensive end on the Cowboys.

The Prediction—Will have to wait for induction.

Ty Law

The Hype—Law is a two-time All-Pro and a six-time Pro Bowler and a Second-team All-Decade choice. He was a key player for the three-time Champion Patriots in their early 2000s dynasty. According to Stats, LLC, he had one of the top personal defensive passer ratings of anyone in his era. That is a stat that measures completion percentage, interception percentage, and other stats, to come up with one number. It's the NFL passer rating applied to defensive backs.

The Knock—Not a lot of All-Pros, but enough.

The Prediction—Will have to wait for induction.

Edgerrin James

The Hype—Two rushing titles, two All-Pro selections, and four Pro Bowls. Known as one of the best pass-blocking running backs of his or any era. A top runner, blocker and receiver out of the backfield.

The Knock—None really, other than there are several backs like him, who had an excellent career but the question remains if they are "compilers". 

The Prediction—Will have to wait for induction.

John Lynch

The Hype—Was a key part of the 2002 Tampa Bay championship and a key player in the Tony Dungy Tampa-2 defense. Selected to nine Pro Bowls, All-Pro twice.

The Knock—Didn't pick off a lot of balls for a safety, even a strong safety. Some will say he was an "in the box" safety as a defense, but the Tampa-2 is a 2-deep defense. Truth is Lynch was more of a hitter than ballhawk, and that's okay, it just should be acknowledged. 

The Prediction—Will have to wait for induction.

Brian Dawkins

The Hype—Played 16 years, was a five-time All-Pro and also nine Pro Bowls. He was a First-team All-Decade for the 2000s. he had 37 interceptions and 26 sacks. Played free safety and later moved to more of a strong safety position later. Played slot corner for the Eagles and other roles (think of current Eagle Malcolm Jenkins's role but twice as good). Could rush, cover, hit, ballhawk. A complete safety.

The Knock—Can not think of anything, other than was never able to get a Super Bowl ring.

The Prediction—He will be voted in tomorrow.

Isaac Bruce

The Hype—Part of the Greatest Show on Turf, has a ring, a one-time All-Pro, and four Pro Bowls.

The Knock—He just does not have the numbers of Randy Moss and Terrell Owens.

The Prediction—Will have to wait for induction.

Terrell Owens

The Hype—Five-time All-Pro, six Pro Bowls, Second-team All-Decade. The numbers are his case and they are great. At the time of his retirement, Owens ranked second in league history in receiving yards (15,934), touchdowns (153), and receptions (1,078). 

The Knock—His disruptiveness has been written about ad nauseam so folks can look all that up on their own. Another knock was his drops. He dropped 7% of his targets in his career (9% in playoffs) and that is far above his contemporaries (Moss 5%, Marvin Harrison 4.4% Calvin Johnson 4.1% to name a few).

The Prediction—Will be inducted

Randy Moss

The Hype—A Four-time All-Pro, six Pro Bowls, First-team All-Decade. Moss ranks second in NFL history with 156 receiving touchdowns, fourth with 15,292 yards and 15th with 982 receptions

The Knock—The "I play when I wanna play" cannot be overlooked. If Moss was the "generational receiver" some call it why only All-Pro four times? He has more talent than likely anyone who ever has played, but given those talents, did he achieve on par with those talents?

If we went in on the first-ballot tomorrow what does that do to the "first-ballot bar"? If someone who left some of their efforts on the field warrants first-ballot induction then the standards are lowered, no?

Here is a chart showing how close the 2nd and 3rd place finished Owens and Moss had to Jerry Rice.

Certainly, no one will be able to match Rice, but shouldn't those who aspire to first-ballot HOF status get a little close? If Rice is All-Pro 11 times and Moss is All-Pro 4 times is that really close? Rice went to 13 Pro Bowls, Moss, and Owens six. Maybe if they were at 8 or 9 it would be in the same ballpark. In terms of stats both Owens and Moss are less than 70% of Rice's yardage total. Less than 80% of his touchdown total. So when folks read "such and such was second in this or third in that" they need to know there is second place and there is second place.

In the 1973 Kentucky Derby Sham was second to Secretariat. And it was close. However, in this case, comparing Rice to Moss and Owens is more like the 1973 Belmont Stakes when Secretariat won and the second- and third-place finishers were barely visible. So, while Moss has a chance to get in tomorrow, a good chance, I think he will have to wait a year but if he does make it, good for him, he certainly thinks he's the best wide receiver of All-time—better than Jerry Rice, even. It would not bother us in the lest, but the Owens fans might raise an eyebrow because they sure think he gave 100% effort all the time whereas Moss didn't. 

The Prediction—Will have to wait for induction.

I was hoping for a cornerback this year, but I think Ty Law makes it next year and there is a possibility that Walls may go in over one of the guards. Like Jacoby, it is Walls's last chance as a modern-era candidate.

Mr. Polian What About the Cover-2 Corner?

PERSPECTIVE
By John Turney

Concerning the upcoming Hall of Fame choice between Brian Dawkins or John Lynch Polian told the Talk of Fame Network

“That’s tough,” Hall-of-Fame GM Bill Polian said on the latest Talk of Fame Network broadcast. “I know too much. This is a dangerous place to be. I know what the safety position means to the (Tony) Dungy defense.

“There are three players in the Dungy defense that are the lynchpins of the whole the defense. First, is the 3-technique. That was Warren Sapp. Second is the will linebacker. That was (Derrick) Brooks. Third is the safety. That’s John Lynch. I don’t think I need to say anymore. Those are the three that made it one of the great defenses in the history of football for the time they played together.”

The Three-technique, the Will backer, and the strong safety? For the Dungy Tampa-2? We always thought the safeties were twin safeties, lined up just outside the hash marks and usually took 1/2 the field in the deepest zones. The Mike backer, or it could be the Will had the "hole" in the zone which allowed the safeties to cheat a bit outside because the backer who had the hole would prevent the Cover-2 defense from being split.

But what about the corners? The rerouting the run support, all the things they needed to do to help that Tampa-2 scheme work. If Polian got his wish and Lynch goes into the Hall of Fame ahead of Dawkins what comments will be for Ronde Barber? And of course, you have to have that edge rusher, no? That opens the door for Simeon Rice.

And don't forget the Mike, who often (usually) has that hole in the zone, just short of the deep 1/2 zones. Hardy Nickerson was that guy. Nickerson, in his Buc years was a five-time Pro Bowler. So really, is it six key players, not three?

The point is it seems like a slippery slope if the hierarchy of the positions in a specific scheme is even a consideration in a Hall of Fame presentation. As superiorly smart as Bill Polian is, this is a bit of a stretch.

Shouldn't the consideration, if one is picking between safeties, be which one was better on the field regardless of scheme?

Here are the stat charts of six key players:

Brooks was a four-time Consensus All-Pro and a six-time First-team All-Pro and was a Second-team All-Pro three times on top of that.

Hardy Nickerson was with the Buccaneers for seven years and was a five-time Pro Bowler and a two-time All-Pro in his Buc years.

 Sapp, like Brooks, was a first-ballot Hall of Fame selection and he was a four-time Consensus All-Pro plus two more seasons as a Second-team All-Pro. In 2001 and 2002 there was not lots of great statistical seasons and therefore not much competition for the All-Pro teams. Sapp made it both years despite averaging less than seven sacks in those two seasons. And it cannot be argued that he was the guy not expected to get those big plays. Playing the three-technique gave Sapp all the advantages of making sacks and stuffs and when he was the Defensive Player of the Year it was due to his big plays/sack total.

 Lynch was a three-time All-Pro and a nine-time Pro Bowler. He had 26 interceptions and 13 sacks.

Barber was a three-time All-Pro and had 28 sacks as a corner, which is an amazing number. Equally amazing is his 63 run/pass stuff total. A run/pass stuff is a tackle for a loss on a run or pass play, that does not include sacks. Warren Sapp had 63.5 run/pass stuffs as a defensive tackle

Rice feels he was a key part of the Tampa Bay defense as the blind side rusher and he had big-time sack totals from 2001-05, totaling 67.5 in those five seasons and he feels that is enoug for the Hall of Fame.

Rodney—It wasn't THAT Extreme

LOOKING BACK
By John Turney

According to Michael Hurley's Twitter Account  Former Patriot Safety made this statemnt at a media availability today, "Rodney Harrison was like, "Do you remember in the Super Bowl against the Eagles, we started like six linebackers and one defensive tackle?""

Hurley then posted the starting lineup from that Super Bowl and it did show this:

Yes, there are five linebackers, but the question is what position did they play?  It was 4-3 defense, Rosevelt Colvin and Willie McGinest were hybrid LBer/DE types, and they played DE in nickel a lot. The only difference here is they were 4-3 DEs in base, which McGinest did quite a bit in his career anyway.

Here is a screenshot of the first play, which is representative of the scheme the Patriots used early in that game:

Credit: NFL Rewind

Come on Rodney, it was likely a surprise because Patriots were a 3-4 team, but it was not a fancy scheme, with five linebackers and two linemen...it was a 4-3.

Ray Lewis and Brian Urlacher By The Numbers

PERSPECTIVE 

By John Turney

The following is a chart comparing the "numbers" of Hall of Fame candidates Ray Lewis and Brian Urlacher. By "numbers" we mean a measure of longevity and durability (years and games and games missed), their relative quality (All-Pros and Pro Bowls) along with Player of the Year awards, All-Decades and also NFL Championships. Additionally, we've added in some statistics.

We have also added in all the other Hall of Fame linebackers to see where Lewis and Urlacher fall in terms of these selected categories.

(Click to enlarge)

Not All Second and Third Place Finishes Are The Same

PERSPECTIVE
By John Turney

For the record, I don't have a horse in the race for the Pro Football Hall of Fame Class of 2018. There are a couple of players who I think are no-brainers, but that's just my opinion and it's worth no more than anyone else's opinion. Additionally, there is one player who I would rather not see get thrown into the Senior pool, a.k.a. "the Swamp".

I do think it is time for Terrell Owens to get into the Hall of Fame. Going in now, with the Class of 2018, puts him on par with Marvin Harrison who got in on his third try and whose career is fairly similar, even though their playing styles were not. However, if things do go the way I think they should it won't bother me because I just give opinions and do some research. I have no skin in the game—it won't be anything to get ugly over.

That said, I do wish those who are making the case for Owens and/or Moss would realize that there are some who look at the numbers of players in great detail. And it seems like the mantra of "he was second to Jerry Rice" in this or "third to Jerry Rice" in that is all we can read online in articles about these receivers. There is more to it in my view.

First, these writers and/or video/television commentators ought to know better. They have access to lots of information and the most basic of statistics, receptions, yards receiving and touchdowns are very easily found and the vast majority of the even the most basic fans know them yet they are repeated over and over. That is done to buttress the same argument we've heard for a few years, i.e. "the numbers alone say Owens or Moss (fill in the blank) should be a first-ballot Hall of Famer."

Says who?

Since when does being second or third in a major statistical category guarantee first-ballot quality? Second is not first. Third is not first. We'd need to look a little closer, no?

Looking closer would be a simple qualitative analysis of those second and/or third place finishes. I guess because 2 comes after 1 they think it makes it sound like a close race but sometimes it is not. This is the "second and third" (if you will) the argument is always presented. And the numbers are almost always presented as though it was close, like a photo finish in a horse race.

Perhaps like this:

Well, in my view, it's not. It's not Secretariat and Sham at the 1973 Kentucky Derby. It's like Secretariat and Sham and the field at the Belmont Stakes in 1973—it's more like this:

Rice's 197 touchdowns compared the 156 and 153 of Moss and Owens is more like this than the previous shot.

Here is what I mean:

Jerry Rice's totals in longevity, honors, statistics, and championships are on the top line. Owens and Moss are on the second and fourth lines. The third and fifth lines are percentages of what their totals are compared to Rice.

They played about 2/3 to 3/4 of the time Rice did. They were All-Pro less than hall the times of Rice, and that includes Pro Bowls. Neither Owens nor Moss was ever an Offensive Player of the Year of MVP, Rice was.

Statistically, they were about 2/3 to 4/5 of what Rice did, finishing a distant 2nd and 3rd in TDs and even less in yards and catches. To be fair, they had comparable yards per catch averages. 

Further, they led the NFL and were in the top 10 in the NFL in receiving categories far less than Rice and finally, Rice has 3 Super Bowl Rings. 

Everyone agrees Rice is the gold (G.O.A.T.?) standard. It just seems to me if they are going to use Rice's stats as a standard they should explain that while true (the "second and third" arguments) an intelligent and thorough examination shows that there is quite a distance between them and as such raised this question:  Are Moss and Owens Really Worthy of First-Ballot Hall of Fame Status?

Reasonable people can disagree, but by the same token, reasonable people shouldn't continue to shout out stats everyone knows and has already taken into consideration and come up with some more compelling evidence than just the "second and third" argument.

Finally, I reiterate, it would be great for Owens to get in this year. Most think he is a Hall of Famer and I certainly agree, I just felt there was a strong case that he and Moss are not slam-dunk first-ballot Hall of Famers.