Nick Bosa's Rookie Season—Where Does it Rank?

LOOKING BACK
By John Turney

Defensive Coordinator Robert Saleh told the media about Nick Bosa: "I’ve never seen a rookie get more attention than he’s getting".

Bosa is a lock for Defensive Rookie of the Year, has excellent shot at being First-team All-Pro, is probably a lock for the Pro Bowl as well. He's having one of the best seasons ever for a rookie defensive end.

He is not tearing it up in terms of sacks, but in impact—QB knockdowns, hurries, drawing holds, he is tearing it up. He has 38 tackles, 8sacks, 7 run stuffs, and a pick. He's not made as many "splash" plays in the last few weeks he did earlier, so we will see if he picks it up or maybe has hit a "rookie wall" but either way, it's been a very good rookie season. But, if he returns to mid-season form it could go down as one of the top few rookie seasons for a d-end ever.

Who are the others you should know about?

Gino Marchetti, 1952

Only a few of the '52 Dallas Texans films remain. But those few show a rookie Marchetti who was already a star player. One game versus the Giants he had three sacks, one of them coming with his shoulder in a harness. He was honorable mention All-Pro, which is a pretty high honor considering he was unknown at the time and playing on a poor team. PFJ's Nick Webster is confident if there were complete films/and or play-by-plays that Marchetti would have tackled passers in the low double digits.

Earl Faison, 1961

Faison was All-AFL, deflected 11 passes, picked off two passes in his rookie season of 1961. He was huge for his era (6-5, 270-defensive tackle size) but could run (5.8 fifty-yard time). We don't have a great sack count and even if the play-by-plays were more complete it's likey he didn't have more than a handful, but he was very impactful in terms of pressures and against the run.

Claude Humphrey, 1968

Big Claude had 11½ sacks as a rookie and also forced five fumbles.

Tony Cline, 1970

Cline took over the left defensive end spot for the Raiders in 1970 for Ike Lassiter, a player who averaged 14½ sacks from 1967-69, and recorded 17½ sacks of his own. He would also stand up as a linebacker some when the Raiders wanted to show a 3-4 front with the same personnel they used in a 4-3.

Bubba Baker, 1978

His 23 sacks and 71 tackles were remarkable for a rookie. Baker was All-Pro, Defensive Rookie of the Year, a Pro Bowler and got some Defensive Player of the year Award votes. The 23 sacks is an unofficial NFL and NFL Rookie record (sacks became official in 1982).

Leslie O'Neal, 1986

O'Neal blew out a knee late in 1986 but was having a stellar rookie year at right end. He totaled 12.5 sacks and played like a veteran with his use of hands and ability to use leverage to beat the good left tackles he faces. In a lot of ways, Nick Bosa reminds us of O'Neal in terms of pass rush skills and techniques being more like a vet than a usual rookie.

Simeon Rice 1996

Rice had 12.5 sacks in his rookie season and was Second-team All-NFC as well.

Jevon Kearse, 1999

The "Freak" had 14.5 sacks and was credited by the NFL with 8 forced fumbles, but the titans credited him with 10. The Titans were right. Back then, the NFL chart keepers, if they couldn't tell who forced a fumble just left it uncredited. Now, they are more diligent and try to find who forced a fumble by review the film. We are confident that Kearse forced ten that year.

Julius Peppers, 2002

Peppers had 12 sacks, five forced fumbles deflected six passes and had a pick in twelve games.  Peppers was suspended in November of 2002 for using a banned substance in a dietary supplement. He played in three games afterward while appealing the decision but decided to drop his appeal. A full season would have put him pretty high on any rookie defensive end list.

Dwight Freeney 2002

Freeney had 13 sacks and nine forced fumbles and 9 run stuffs (his career-high) as a rookie.

Joey Bosa, 2016

As a rookie Nick's older brother had 10.5 sacks in 12 games after a holdout that caused him to miss the first month of the season. He was skilled as a rookie, like O'Neal and now his younger brother, he would have been more productive will a full camp and the month of the season he missed.

There are a few other rookie seasons that were also good, that maybe deserve honorable mention—Lionel Aldridge, Bill Stanfill, Fred Dryer, Lyle Alzado, Gary Burley, and Darren Howard among them.

Note: Reggie White was excluded because his rookie season in pro football was in the USFL.

The 2019 Jets Rush Defense is Best in Franchise History Through 13 Games

PERSPECTIVE
By John Turney

Many in the analytics crowd will tell you that running the ball and stopping the run does not matter. Having talked to NFL defensive coordinators we'd suggest there is still much value in not getting the ball run down your throat and that stopping the run allows more aggressive blitz packages on third down because the ball is a couple of yards that it would be with poorer run defense.

Nonetheless, it is interesting to note that Gregg Williams and his scheme of "not leveraging mythical gaps" has stopped the run in the Big Apple in 2019, better than any previous Jets defense.

The Jets (prior to the big Thursday Night Football game against the Ravens) are allowing just 3.0 yards a carry and 78.8 yards per game rushing.

Tonight's matchup will be tough. The Ravens are rushing for 200.9 yards per game and a 5.5 yards per rush. Since 1960 the Ravens mark of 200.9 yds rushing a game is 8th best.

The 5.46 yards a carry is also one of best since 1960.

So, will tonight be the proverbial irresistible force meeting the immovable object?

Packers Stake Out Washington Territory in 20-15 Win

By Eric Goska

Fans pose for a faux Lambeau Leap ahead of Green Bay’s win.

The Washington Redskins were the visiting team Sunday at Lambeau Field.

But in the first half, at least, it was the hometown Green Bay Packers who spent a lot of time visiting Washington territory.

Aaron Rodgers and company all but set up shop on the other side of the 50 in producing a 14-6 halftime lead. That development proved fortuitous – even if it was not fully taken advantage of – as the team did little offensively in the final two quarters yet still squeezed out a 20-15 win.

Offenses love short fields. The Packers had one on three of their four first possessions.

One could even argue it was four-for-four. Running back Aaron Jones ripped off his longest run of the season – a 42-yard scamper – that pushed Green Bay beyond the 50 as the team set sail for a fourth time.

Not counting Rodger’s kneel-down to end the half, the Packers (on average) began five first-half drives from roughly their own 39-yard line. Why the team didn’t tally more points is a concern the coaching staff needs to address or this club will be one-and-done in the playoffs.

Green Bay’s first three drives were set up by newcomer Tyler Ervin. The fourth-year running back – who played six games for the Jaguars earlier this season – joined the team on Dec. 2 as a waiver wire acquisition.

Erving resurrected a punt return game that had netted negative-8 yards through 11 games. He set the team long with each of his first three returns: 10, 12 and 18 yards.

Green Bay started from the 50, the Washington 48 and its own 43 as a result. The journeys concluded with an Aaron Jones rushing touchdown, a J.K. Scott punt and a Rodgers-to-Robert Tonyan scoring pass.

Scott’s punt followed a 7-yard sack of Rodgers. Linebacker Ryan Kerrigan dropped the quarterback after the Packers had moved to the Redskins’ 42.

As Green Bay opened its fourth drive, Jones’ 42-yard run carried the Packers to the Washington 46. Four plays later, Scott punted for a second time as the team again sputtered.

Green Bay’s fifth advance began at its own 25. The team cruised past midfield to reach the visitor’s 27-yard line. Once there, a strip-sack of Rodgers by linebacker Ryan Anderson resulted in the Packers’ only turnover.

Rodgers kneeled from his own 27 to end the half.

Lambeau Field has its Christmas Tree.

In all, the Green and Gold ran 21 of 29 first-half plays on the Redskins’ side of the field. That percentage (72.4) was the club’s highest since Rodgers became a starter in 2008.

It ranks as the team’s 11th best outing since the NFL-AFL merger of 1970.

Such a marked takeover of the opposition’s territory – even if only for the initial 30 minutes – has often been followed by victory. Green Bay has been above 70 percent on 25 occasions in the first half since 1970, and its record in those games is 20-5.

The team has been there seven times since 2008. Its only loss over that span was a 30-34 setback to the Bengals in 2013.

Given such prime real estate Sunday, the Packers lacked killer instinct. The 21 plays they ran from beyond the 50 in the first half produced 73 yards. The other eight yielded 120.

Had the team finished what it started by finding the end zone each time out, the score at halftime could have been 35-6.

Green Bay was even less effective in the second half. Seventeen of its 31 offensive plays were initiated in enemy territory, yet the team managed but six points on two Mason Crosby field goals.

That won’t cut it come January. Failing to take advantage of excellent field position against the likes of San Francisco, Seattle or New Orleans will almost assuredly lead to an early Packers’ exit.

But Green Bay’s effort – unimpressive as it was – sufficed against the 3-9 Redskins. Green Bay shut the door on Washington when Rodgers kneeled twice – from the Redskins’ 47- and 48-yard lines – to run out the final 77 seconds.

Extra point

Green Bay’s best first-half beyond-the-50 showing of the last 50 years occurred on Dec. 5, 1982. On that day against the Bills at Milwaukee County Stadium, the Packers ran 22 of 23 plays (95.7 percent) in Buffalo territory en route to a 33-21 win.

Enemy Territory

The seven times Green Bay has run more than 70 percent of its first-half offensive plays from beyond the 50-yard line.

Date                   Opponent        Pct.          Plays        Result

Dec. 8, 2019       Redskins          72.4        21 of 29     GB won 20-15

Dec. 8, 2014       Falcons            72.1        31 of 43     GB won 43-37

Sept. 22, 2013    Bengals            71.9        23 of 32     GB lost 30-34

Dec. 13, 2009     Bears               71.0        22 of 31     GB won 21-14

Oct. 24, 2010     Vikings             71.0        22 of 31     GB won 28-24

Dec. 29, 2013     Bears               70.7        29 of 41     GB won 33-28

Dec. 11, 2011     Raiders             70.6        24 of 34     GB won 46-16

Come on Guys—You Can Do Better Than This

OPINION
By John Turney

Looking through Twitter this morning there was a Tweet with a link to a podcast that purported to have a take on the NFL 100 team, so I dutifully followed.

In it, Dave Dameshek and  Matt "Money" Smith had these thoughts on the subject.

Dameshek aired his views that Dutch Clark and Bill Hewitt shouldn't be on the All-Time team and that the NFL was a "minor league sport".  Smith, while supposedly agreeing with Dameshek actually stated the exact reason players like Clark and Hewitt (and there will be others) should be on the team.

Sometimes people get going on a take or rant and actually undermine their whole premise. You see, everyone who follows football knows of the evolution of the game and that the players of the 1920s, 1930s, and 1940s and so one couldn't play today.

This guy knows that—

But the NFL's point of having an All-Time team is to celebrate the history of the game and honor those who have come before and that is done in the context of rating players in the era they played, i.e. "All those guys could do is play in their decade and absolutely dominate". Thank you, Mr. Smith.  My point exactly.

Of course, I have some quibbles with the All-Time team selections made so far, but I certainly have no issue with Clark or Hewitt or Mel Hein who will likely be one of the centers and others.

It gets kind of old hearing the same, tired complaint by those who know little of the pre-WWII era. That complaint is "those guys couldn't play today". It's just something we all know, especially those who have taken the time to study the era and even watch what film is available.

Actually, I would like to see a discussion about taking Peyton Manning or Tom Brady back to, say, 1960. Have them contend with blockers who could not extend their arms. Defensive linemen could beat the crud out of the helmets of the blockers, and then hit the quarterback from the top of his head to the bottom of their feet and get to hit them hard.

It would be fun to see them contend with the fact their receivers could be "axed" on the line of scrimmage. And their receivers could be bumped after five yards and until the ball was in the air. And on those crossing routes they run with impunity? Nope. They are not there because it the receivers would be in the hospital after the first couple. And if a defender gets close are they are rules for intentional grounding? No. If you ground your ground, no out of the pocket or back to the line of scrimmage.

Sure, the defenses would be less sophisticated but it would be a tough game because the protections given to the quarterbacks and receivers would be gone and much of what teams can do now couldn't be done then. So, to a smaller degree, the "could play today" works both ways. Again, to a smaller degree. And that is not even asking if Manning or Brady could play both ways in the "iron man" era.

Heck, how about this? Eric Dickerson, Earl Campbell, and Barry Sanders are three of the best running backs ever. Bar none. But, could they play today? In an era that does not value pure runners? They were awesome, off-the-charts runners. But none could help you on third down. They were average or fair to poor pass blockers. Fair, to average, to poor pass catchers. Sanders had to be taken out on goal line quite often. What about that? And some of them fumbled a lot. Too much to be able to stay on the field today.

So come on Mr. Dameshek and Mr. Smith it is far more complex to choose an All-Time team than you are suggesting and one cannot just rattle off the names of players from their favorite team on the one hand and then rip the Blue Ribbon Committee choices for honoring pre-WWII players on the other.

Again, criticizing a choice here or there, fine. But dismissing a class of players because they "couldn't play today" is silly. They are part of the game and they dominated in their era the way LT dominated his era.

Put your backs into it, study the subject, then comment. If you do that then your comments can be taken seriously.

The bottom line is the members of the NFL's 26-person blue-ribbon panel are doing a great job. And the presence of Clark and Hewitt are the proof of that good work.

TEXAS ADVENTURE COMPLETE: Back to the NFL 2019 Season

By TJ Troup

My Texas adventure is now complete, and down the road when the film is about to be released to the public will tell the saga from my point of view.

Back in my routine, and we are at the 3/4 pole of this season, and is about damn time I contributed to the Pro Football Journal.

Where to start? How about with my favorite stat; the top seven teams in the defensive passer rating category (The Sexy Seven) have a combined record of 66-18, and all four teams with 10 wins are in this category.

So, until the stat is not viable, you are gonna hear about who is playing top-notch team pass defense. Today is an anniversary date—and in my first book This Day In Football I detailed that on December 5th there were two fascinating statistical performances.

The first and still the record; rookie Chuckin' Charley Conerly completed 36 passes against the Steelers in a losing performance. Even with so many rookie passers filling the air with footballs, Conerly still holds the rookie record 71 years later.

Yes, truly believe Conerly should have received more consideration for Hall of Fame induction honors. The other stat is a combined team stat. The defending champion Cardinals of Chicago, and the lowly '48 Packers combined to run the ball 108 times in a game!

Now that is a combined team stat that will probably never be broken based upon the strategy of the game as it is played in 2019. Finally, tonight we have the Bears taking on the Cowboys, and one of the teams goes over .500, and the other falls below .500.

Both teams were expected to be powerful winning and probably playoff teams this year; yet they have both had their struggles, and many in the land of the red, white, and blue could(and probably have)go hours on why they are not winning? Last year both teams made the playoffs, and both teams have both made the playoffs in the same season before—but not very often.

During '77 the Tonka Truck known as "Sweetness" literally carried the Bears on his back to a wild card berth. Chicago's opponent the future Super Bowl Champion Cowboys; and the game was a route. During 1979 Dallas beat the Bears in the regular season, and both teams were knocked out in the their first playoff game.

During 1985 the Bears crushed the division champion Cowboys in the regular season as Chicago was not going to be denied on their path to their only Super Bowl victory. Dallas lost to the Rams in a game Doug Smith detailed to me when we coached together at Orange Coast College.

Watching film of the game truly shows that Doug knew what he was talking about. Finally, 1991 as the Jimmy Johnson Cowboys on the rise beat the Bears 17-13. The game was very painful to watch for any fan who cherishes navy blue & burnt orange.

Steve Beuerlein completely outplayed Jim Harbaugh, and the Dallas defense recorded 3 sacks and 3 takeaways. Painfully I know first hand about Mr. Beuerlein of Servite High School, and what he did to me in 1980 & 1982 during my time at Mater Dei High School. Those memories have not faded with time, and many, many coaches can always reflect back on championship game losses.

Packers Rate Better than Giants in 31-13 Win

By Eric Goska

Aaron Rodgers had a passer rating of 125.4; Daniel Jones had a rating of 49.4

Vive la dif·fé·rence!

Pardon our French, but if the Green Bay Packers can continue to come up with passer rating differentials such as the one they orchestrated against the New York Giants Sunday, the team will be tough to beat.

Aaron Rodgers and his merry band of receivers teamed up to produce Green Bay’s third-highest passer rating of the season. The defense, meanwhile, surrendered its lowest number of 2019.

The difference between the two numbers – a margin of 76 points – was the greatest the team has seen in three years. It was a number that stood out in the Packers’ 31-13 conquest of the Giants at MetLife Stadium.

In order to produce a gap of 75 or more, a team’s offense and defense must both be playing well. If only one unit is clicking, differentials typically aren’t as pronounced.

Case in point: Rodgers compiled the NFL maximum rating of 158.3 against the Raiders earlier this year, and his counterpart, Derek Carr, checked in at 119.2. While that’s a difference of 39.1 points, it could have been far more had Green Bay’s defenders been less forgiving.

In the Meadowlands, the Packers were strong on both sides of the ball when the teams took to the air. Rodgers fired four touchdown passes – two to Davante Adams and one each to Allen Lazard and tight end Marcedes Lewis. His rating of 125.4 was his third-highest of the season.

On the other side of the field, Daniel Jones appeared as though he might be equally as impressive, at least early on. His 18-yarder to Sterling Shepard tied the score at 7-7 late in the first quarter, and the rookie’s rating ballooned to 135.9.

But Jones fired incomplete on his next two attempts. He subsequent offering was waylaid by cornerback Kevin King early in the second quarter.

By game’s end, Jones’ rating was a miserable 49.4.

Rodgers’ jumped into triple digits on his second attempt of the afternoon. He found Lazard downfield for 43 yards and a first down to set up the Packers’ first touchdown.

From there, Rodgers’ rating never fell below 115. He even clocked in at 158.3 on a number of occasions in the first 18 minutes.

Jones’ rating plummeted to 63.1 after he was picked by King. It never got any higher than 71.5 thanks to fourth-quarter interceptions by Darnell Savage and Tramon Williams.

Gaps of 75-plus (starter versus starter with each quarterback attempting at least 15 passes) don’t come around often for Green Bay. When they do, the Packers usually prevail.

The Green and Gold has been 75 points better 48 times since 1947, the year the team went to the T formation. The team’s regular-season record in those games is 46-2.

Tobin Rote was the Packers’ triggerman in the first. On Oct. 2, 1955, he fashioned a rating of 89.3 while the Bears’ Ed Brown barely registered at 12.8. Green Bay won 24-3.

Brett Favre has been at the helm a record 15 times in these ratings landslides. Rodgers is next with 14 such outings.

Bart Starr was at the controls in the most lopsided. On Oct. 12, 1970, Starr’s 132.9 was 131.6 points better than John Hadl’s 1.3. Even so, the Packers needed a fourth-quarter field goal from Dale Livingston to escape with a 22-20 victory.

Rodgers last outpointed the opposing starter by 75 or more on Dec. 11, 2016. No. 12 tossed three touchdown passes (150.8 rating) while Green Bay’s defense intercepted Seattle’s Russell Wilson five times (43.7). The Packers cruised 38-10.

Gaps of 75 or more were more commonplace when Rodgers was younger. He and the Packers came up with at least two in five different seasons: 2009 (2), 2010 (3), 2011 (2), 2012 (2) and 2014 (3).

To this day, the difference between a team’s passer rating and that of its opponents is a good indicator as to how a team might fare in the postseason. Given that Green Bay’s number through 12 games is a pedestrian 14.6 (102.2 for; 87.6 against), continuing to widen that gap would likely only help the Green and Gold come January.

Extra Points

Green Bay’s two losses in 75-plus situations came with Lynn Dickey and Mike Tomczak under center. In 1983, Dickey (120.5) outplayed the Lions’ Eric Hipple (37.6), but Green Bay fell 23-20 in overtime after Dickey was lost to a concussion late in the first half.  In 1991, Tomczak (115.9) outdueled Billy JoeTolliver (36.1), but Atlanta came back to win 35-31 in the second half behind Chris Miller (137.7).

In 2010, the season in which the Packers last won a Super Bowl, the team’s passer rating (98.9) was 31.7 points better than that of its opponents (67.2).

Air Superiority

Quarterback starters for Green Bay who recorded the most regular-season games in which they outpointed the opposition’s starting quarterback by 75 or more (minimum 15 attempts by each quarterback).

   G   GB Starter         Largest Difference                                              Date         

  15   Brett Favre          125.8 (Favre 141.5; Trent Dilfer 15.7)                    Sept. 1, 1996

  14   Aaron Rodgers    119.0 (Rodgers 155.4; Derek Anderson 36.4)        Oct. 25, 2009

    9   Bart Starr            131.6 (Starr 132.9; John Hadl 1.3)                         Oct. 12, 1970

    4   Lynn Dickey        97.8 (Dickey 149.5; Archie Manning 51.7)             Dec. 13, 1981

    2   Tobin Rote          87.4 (Rote 115.6; George Shaw 28.2)                    Oct. 14, 1956

Deshaun Watson Joins New Club

By John Turney

In the Sunday Night Football game tonight there was a play in which at first it appeared that Deshaun Watson ran for a touchdown on a pitch from DeAndre Hopkins.

It was ruled a forward pass and thus Watson was credited with a touchdown reception. It was the first of the season.

Watson now has 23 touchdown passes, 5 rushing touchdowns, and a touchdown reception.

According to Pro Football Reference it marked just the 12th time in NFL history a player had at least 15 touchdown passes and at least one touchdown run and one touchdown reception.

Here is the complete list—

Folks are saying Lamar Jackson is the frontrunner for the MVP and that is likely true. But there still a month of games left, so let's see all of them. Don't sleep on Watson, he's still in the race in our view.