What is the Production Drop From Top QB Chosen to the Next?

PERSPECIVE
By John Turney

Goff and Wentz

We think the Rams will select Cal Quarterback Jared Goff with the Number one overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft next week. With the Eagles trading up to the Number two overall pick, we strongly feel Carson Wentz will go there. If so, or even if the order is reversed this will be the eighth time two quarterbacks go 1-2 in the NFL Draft.

Also, it is worth noting since the common AFL-NFL Draft this is the first time a blockbuster-type deal (one that involves multiple 1st round picks and more) was made for the overall Number one and Number two pick.

We did a quick and dirty score for those 1-2 picks as well as the years when two quarterbacks were chosen in the Top 5 picks. We gave a point for being on a roster, another for being a starter, another for playing at an All-Conference or Pro Bowl level, another for being a Second-team All-Pro and one more for being a First-team All-Pro, yet another for being an MVP. And a QB got a bonus point for starting in a Super Bowl and two points for starting and winning a Super Bowl.

It is essentially a simple 1-8 grade. Also, in the charts below (H/T to Pro Football Reference) we show the passing stats for those quarterbacks.

The drill here is to see if there is any difference in production existed between the top pick versus the next one, or third. In 1971 and 1999 we included all three quarterbacks that went 1st-2nd-3rd.

1954

Lamar McHan and Bobby Garrett

Lamar McHan was a journeyman-type quarterback who was a starter for about half his career, he was far more productive than Stanford's Bobby Garrett, who never played for the Browns who drafted him but did get one NFL season under his belt. Apparently, he had a stuttering issue that made his play calling more difficult to understand.



1971

Credit: John Hogan

This one seems close, we gave Archie Manning for his NFC Player of the Year Award in 1978. And the way this began and ended was interesting. Plunkett and Manning were starters and doing well for poor teams and both had a knack for getting a surprise win a season, Manning sometimes versus Rams or Cowboys, Plunkett over a Miami or other stout AFC team. Pastorini stuggled early. Then, in 1975 both Manning and Plunkett were hurt and missed significant time. Pastorini was 10-4 in a tough division and kept Oilers a contender through 1979 when he was traded to Oakland, for Ken Stabler.

Plunkett was sent to 49ers for a boatload of picks and had a decent season and a half there, but seemed shaken and was released and then picked up by the Raiders, who let him rest for a few years. When Pastorini broke his leg in 1980 Plunkett picked up the team and led the Raiders to a win in Super Bowl XV. He won another in 1983 in similar fashion.

Manning recovered and led Saints to 7-9 seasons in 1978 and 1979, the best years they ever had but the wheels came off in 1980. Manning was traded to Oilers then Vikings. It could be argued that the order of these selections matched their career productivity, but none, really dominated either.


1993

Bledsoe and Mirer

This one is still a cautionary tale. Mirer was highly sought after, a winner, good mobility, but he never was able to get it all together in the NFL like he had at Notre Dame. While Bledsoe is not going to be a Hall of Famer, he was the better choice, by far in the 1993 NFL Draft.

1998

Leaf and Manning

This is the biggest cautionary tale. Leaf is synonymous with "QB Bust". Manning may be synonymous for "Best Ever".



1999

Couch and McNabb

McNabb is the clear winner here. Couch and Smith, while not in Leaf category disappointed. Especially Smith.

2012

Luck and Griffin

Jury is still out, but Griffin is with second team and is a reclamation project. Luck, though he had a tough 2015, is considered a franchise quarterback.



2015

Mariota and Winston

Too early to tell anything.




Now, here are the ones that were both in the top 5, but not 1-2 or 1-2-3 in the draft.

1967

Spurrier and Griese

Spurrier had the better arm, size, but Griese was the far better NFL player.


1970

Bradshaw and Phipps

Phipps went Number three overall and was a starter only five of  his twelve seasons.

1982

McMahon and Schlichter

Schlichter had the better arm, more size, maybe even better athlete. McMahon was the "pro-ready" quarterback having played at BYU. McMahon delivered a championship, but missed so much time the Bears had to move on and never achieved what many thought they should have in the 1980s, given the level the defense played. But there is no question who was better pick.

1995

McNair and Collins

This is closer than we thought it would be. Collins did get to a Super Bowl, quietly compiled some numbers, but McNair was the better NFL quarterback, and his 2003 co-MVP was the proof.

2002

Carr and Harrington

Neither did much.

2004

Manning and Rivers

Manning has the rings, Rivers the numbers.

2009

Stafford and Sanchez

Stafford has done some good things (we counted his 2011 NFL Alumni QB of the Year award as a Pro Bowl, which is why he has a "2" in that column0. Sanchez game-managed the Jets deep into playoffs, but is starting over again in Denver.

So, is there a pattern? No. To top guy has more points 4 times. The second guy drafted has more points 4 times. And 6 are really too close to call.

So, Goff or Wentz? Nobody really knows.

No one.